The value of tail risk hedging in defined contribution plans: What does history tell us

Hedging against tail events in equity markets has been forcefully advocated in the aftermath of recent global financial crisis. Whether this is beneficial to long horizon investors like employees enrolled in defined contribution (DC) plans, however, has been subject to criticism. We conduct historical simulation since 1928 to examine the effectiveness of active and passive tail risk hedging using out of money put options for hypothetical equity portfolios of DC plan participants with 20 years to retirement. Our findings show that the cost of tail hedging exceeds the benefits for a majority of the plan participants during the sample period. However, for a significant number of simulations, hedging result in superior outcomes relative to an unhedged position. Active tail hedging is more effective when employees confront several panic-driven periods characterized by short and sharp market swings in the equity markets over the investment horizon. Passive hedging, on the other hand, proves beneficial when they encounter an extremely rare event like the Great Depression as equity markets go into deep and prolonged decline.

The value of having no wild rabbits in south-east Queensland

Rabbits released in Australia in 1859 spread to most areas of suitable habitat by 1910 causing great damage to the environment and primary industries. Measurement of damage is essential to justify spending money and utilising resources to remove rabbits. Damage to pasture and biodiversity may be irreversible and therefore difficult to measure without comparison with an area that has never suffered such damage. A rabbit proof fence completed in 1906 protected a large part of south east Queensland from rabbits. The Darling Downs Moreton Rabbit Board (DDMRB) continues to maintain the fence and keep the area relatively free of rabbits. This area is unique because it is highly suitable for rabbits and yet it has never ‘experienced’ the damage caused by plagues of uncontrolled rabbits. A study site was established where the DDMRB fence separates an area heavily used by rabbits (‘dirty side’) from an area that has never been infested by rabbits (‘clean side’). The number and location of all rabbit warrens and log piles were recorded. The absence of warrens from the ‘clean side’ shows clearly that the rabbit proof fence has prevented rabbits from establishing warren systems. The ‘dirty side’ is characterised by a high number of warrens, a high density of rabbits, fewer pasture species and low macropod activity. Future work will determine whether the rabbit populations are viable in the absence of rabbit warrens. We plan to radio collar rabbits on both sides of the fence to measure their survival rate. In selected warrens and log piles of varying degrees of complexity and size, rabbits will be trapped and information on reproduction and age structure will be collected. This will allow better targeting of the source of rabbits during control operations. Once the initial comparative analysis of the site has been completed, all rabbit warrens will be destroyed on the dirty side of the fence. After rabbits are removed from this area, monitoring will continue to determine if pasture and biodiversity on opposite sides of the fence begin to mirror each other.

Effect of boundary condition description on convergence of solution in a boundary-value problem

It is well known that the numerical accuracy of a series solution to a boundary-value problem by the direct method depends on the technique of approximate satisfaction of the boundary conditions and on the stage of truncation of the series. On the other hand, it does not appear to be generally recognized that, when the boundary conditions can be described in alternative equivalent forms, the convergence of the solution is significantly affected by the actual form in which they are stated. The importance of the last aspect is studied for three different techniques of computing the deflections of simply supported regular polygonal plates under uniform pressure. It is also shown that it is sometimes possible to modify the technique of analysis to make the accuracy independent of the description of the boundary conditions.

Re-Conceptualizing Value-Creation From Industrial Business Logic to Service Business Logic

There is an urgent interest in marketing to move away from neo-classical value definitions suggesting that value creation is a process of exchanging goods for money. In the present paper, value creation is conceptualized as an integration of two distinct, yet closely coupled processes. First, actors co-create what this paper calls an underlying basis of value. This is done by interactively re-configuring resources. By relating and combining resources, activity sets, and risks across actor boundaries in novel ways actors create joint productivity gains – a concept very similar to density (Normann, 2001). Second, actors engage in a process of signification and evaluation. Signification implies co-constructing the meaning and worth of joint productivity gains co-created through interactive resource re-configuration, as well as sharing those gains through a pricing mechanism as value to involved actors. The conceptual framework highlights an all-important dynamics associated with ´value creation´ and ´value´ - a dynamics the paper claims has eluded past marketing research. The paper argues that the framework presented here is appropriate for the interactive service perspective, where value and value creation are not objectively given, but depend on the power of involved actors´ socially constructed frames to mobilize resources across actor boundaries in ways that ´enhance system well-being´ (Vargo et al., 2008). The paper contributes to research on Service Logic, Service-Dominant Logic, and Service Science.

Emerging bioenergy business at Finnish independent industrial sawmills

Finnish forest industry is in the middle of a radical change. Deepening recession and the falling demand of woodworking industry´s traditional products have forced also sawmilling industry to find new and more fertile solutions to improve their operational preconditions. In recent years, the role of bioenergy production has often been highlighted as a part of sawmills´ business repertoire. Sawmilling produces naturally a lot of by-products (e.g. bark, sawdust, chips) which could be exploited more effectively in energy production, and this would bring more incomes or maybe even create new business opportunities for sawmills. Production of bioenergy is also supported by government´s climate and energy policies favouring renewable energy sources, public financial subsidies, and soaring prices of fossil fuels. Also the decreasing production of domestic pulp and paper industry releases a fair amount of sawmills´ by-products for other uses. However, bioenergy production as a part of sawmills´ by-product utilization has been so far researched very little from a managerial point of view. The purpose of this study was to explore the relative significance of the main bioenergy-related processes, resources and factors at Finnish independent industrial sawmills including partnerships, cooperation, customers relationships and investments, and also the future perspectives of bioenergy business at these sawmills with the help of two resource-based approaches (resource-based view, natural-resource-based view). Data of the study comprised of secondary data (e.g. literature), and primary data which was attracted from interviews directed to sawmill managers (or equivalent persons in charge of decisions regarding bioenergy production at sawmill). While a literature review and the Delphi method with two questionnaires were utilized as the methods of the study. According to the results of the study, the most significant processes related to the value chain of bioenergy business are connected to raw material availability and procurement, and customer relationships management. In addition to raw material and services, the most significant resources included factory and machinery, personnel, collaboration, and geographic location. Long-term cooperation deals were clearly valued as the most significant form of collaboration, and especially in processes connected to raw material procurement. Study results also revealed that factors related to demand, subsidies and prices had highest importance in connection with sawmills´ future bioenergy business. However, majority of the respondents required that certain preconditions connected to the above-mentioned factors should be fulfilled before they will continue their bioenergy-related investments. Generally, the answers showed a wide divergence of opinions among the respondents which may refer to sawmills´ different emphases and expectations concerning bioenergy. In other words, bioenergy is still perceived as a quite novel and risky area of business at Finnish independent industrial sawmills. These results indicate that the massive expansion of bioenergy business at private sawmills in Finland is not a self-evident truth. The blocking barriers seem to be connected mainly to demand of bioenergy and money. Respondents´ answers disseminated a growing dissatisfaction towards the policies of authorities, which don´t treat equally sawmill-based bioenergy compared to other forms of bioenergy. This proposition was boiled down in a sawmill manager´s comment: “There is a lot of bioenergy available, if they just want to make use of it.” It seems that the positive effects of government´s policies favouring the renewables are not taking effect at private sawmills. However, as there anyway seems to be a lot of potential connected to emerging bioenergy business at Finnish independent industrial sawmills, there is also a clear need for more profound future studies over this topic.

Equivalent differential equations for nonlinear dynamical systems

A technique for obtaining approximate periodic solutions to nonlinear ordinary differential equations is investigated. The approach is based on defining an equivalent differential equation whose exact periodic solution is known. Emphasis is placed on the mathematical justification of the approach. The relationship between the differential equation error and the solution error is investigated, and, under certain conditions, bounds are obtained on the latter. The technique employed is to consider the equation governing the exact solution error as a two point boundary value problem. Among other things, the analysis indicates that if an exact periodic solution to the original system exists, it is always possible to bound the error by selecting an appropriate equivalent system.

Three equivalence criteria for minimizing the differential equation error are compared, namely, minimum mean square error, minimum mean absolute value error, and minimum maximum absolute value error. The problem is analyzed by way of example, and it is concluded that, on the average, the minimum mean square error is the most appropriate criterion to use.

A comparison is made between the use of linear and cubic auxiliary systems for obtaining approximate solutions. In the examples considered, the cubic system provides noticeable improvement over the linear system in describing periodic response.

A comparison of the present approach to some of the more classical techniques is included. It is shown that certain of the standard approaches where a solution form is assumed can yield erroneous qualitative results.

Primary cosmic-ray positrons and negatrons in 1968 at energies between 11 and 204 MeV

The cosmic-ray positron and negatron spectra between 11 and 204 MeV have been measured in a series of 3 high-altitude balloon flights launched from Fort Churchill, Manitoba, on July 16, July 21, and July 29, 1968. The detector system consisted of a magnetic spectrometer utilizing a 1000-gauss permanent magnet, scintillation counters, and a lucite Čerenkov counter.

Launches were timed so that the ascent through the 100 g/cm² level of residual atmosphere occurred after the evening geomagnetic cutoff transition. Data gathered during ascent are used to correct for the contribution of atmospheric secondary electrons to the flux measured at float altitude. All flights floated near 2.4 g/cm².

A pronounced morning intensity increase was observed in each flight. We present daytime positron and negatron data which support the interpretation of the diurnal flux variation as a change in the local geomagnetic cutoff. A large diurnal variation was observed in the count rate of positrons and negatrons with magnetic rigidities less than 11 MV and is evidence that the nighttime cutoff was well below this value.

Using nighttime data we derive extraterrestrial positron and negatron spectra. The positron-to-total-electron ratio which we measure indicates that the interstellar secondary, or collision, source contributes ≾50 percent of the electron flux within this energy interval. By comparing our measured positron spectrum with the positron spectrum calculated for the collision source we derive the absolute solar modulation for positrons in 1968. Assuming negligible energy loss during modulation, we derive the total interstellar electron spectrum as well as the spectrum of directly accelerated, or primary, electrons. We examine the effect of adiabatic deceleration and find that many of the conclusions regarding the interstellar electron spectrum are not significantly altered for an assumed energy loss of up to 50 percent of the original energy.

Electromagnetic decay of the 1.7- and 2.43-MeV levels in ^9Be

The 1.7- and 2.43-MeV levels in ⁹Be were populated with the reaction ¹¹B(d, α)⁹Be* by bombarding thin boron on carbon foils with 1.7-MeV deuterons. The alpha particles were analyzed in energy with a surface-barrier counter set at the unique kinematically determined angle and the recoiling ⁹Be nuclei at 90^o were analyzed in rigidity with a magnetic spectrometer, in energy by a surface-barrier counter at the spectrometer focus, and in velocity by the time delay between an alpha and a ⁹Be count. When a pulse from the spectrometer counter was in the appropriate delayed coincidence with a pulse from the alpha counter, the two pulses were recorded in a two-dimensional pulse height analyzer. Most of the ⁹Be* decay by particle breakup. Only those that gamma decay are detected by the spectrometer counter. Thus the experiment provides a direct measurement of Γ_rad/Γ. Analysis of 384 observed events gives Γ_rad/Γ = (1.16 ± 0.14) X 10^-4 for the 2.43-MeV level. Combining this ratio with the value of Γ_rad = 0.122 ± 0.015 eV found from inelastic electron scattering gives Γ = (1.05 ± 0.18) keV. For the 1.7-MeV level, an upper limit, Γ_rad/Γ ≤ 2.4 = 10^-5, was determined.

π+ photoproduction at angles from 6° to 90° C.M. and energies from 589 to 1269 MeV

The differential cross section for the reaction γp → π⁺n was measured at 32 laboratory photon energies between 589 and 1269 MeV at the Caltech Synchrotron. At each energy, data have been obtained at typically fifteen π⁺ c.m. angles between 6° and 90°. A magnetic spectrometer was used to detect the π⁺ photo-produced in a liquid hydrogen target. Two Cherenkov counters were used to reject the background of positrons and protons. The data clearly show the presence of a pole in the production amplitude due to the one pion exchange. Moravcsik fits to the 32 angular distributions, including data from another experiment, are presented. The extrapolation of these fits to the pole gives a value for the pion-nucleon coupling constant of 14.5 which is consistent with the accepted value. The second and third pion-nucleon resonances are evident as peaks in the total cross section and as changes in the shape of the angular distributions. At the third resonance there is evidence for both a D5/2 and an F5/2 amplitude. The absence of large variations in the 0° and 180° cross sections implies that the second and third resonances are mostly produced from an initial state with helicity ± 3/2.

Improving design quality and value in the built environment through knowledge of intangibles

Raising design quality and value in the built environment requires continuous improvement, drawing on feedback from clients or occupiers and other industry players. The challenging task for architectural and engineering designers has always been to use their intellectual knowledge to deliver both forms of benefits, tangibles and intangibles, in the built environment. Increasingly as clients demand best value for money, there is a greater need to understand the potential from intangibles, to see projects not as ends in themselves but as means to improved quality of life and wealth creation. As we begin to understand more about how - through the design of the built environment - to deliver these improvements in outcomes, clients will be better placed to expect their successful delivery from designers, and designers themselves will be better placed to provide them. This paper discusses cross-disciplinary issues about intangibles and is aimed at designers, clients, investors and entrepreneurs within the built environment. It presents some findings from a minuscule study that investigated intangible benefits in a new primary school. © 2004 IEEE.

Serotonin selectively modulates reward value in human decision-making.

Establishing a function for the neuromodulator serotonin in human decision-making has proved remarkably difficult because if its complex role in reward and punishment processing. In a novel choice task where actions led concurrently and independently to the stochastic delivery of both money and pain, we studied the impact of decreased brain serotonin induced by acute dietary tryptophan depletion. Depletion selectively impaired both behavioral and neural representations of reward outcome value, and hence the effective exchange rate by which rewards and punishments were compared. This effect was computationally and anatomically distinct from a separate effect on increasing outcome-independent choice perseveration. Our results provide evidence for a surprising role for serotonin in reward processing, while illustrating its complex and multifarious effects.

The price of pain and the value of suffering.

Estimating the financial value of pain informs issues as diverse as the market price of analgesics, the cost-effectiveness of clinical treatments, compensation for injury, and the response to public hazards. Such valuations are assumed to reflect a stable trade-off between relief of discomfort and money. Here, using an auction-based health-market experiment, we show that the price people pay for relief of pain is strongly determined by the local context of the market, that is, by recent intensities of pain or immediately disposable income (but not overall wealth). The absence of a stable valuation metric suggests that the dynamic behavior of health markets is not predictable from the static behavior of individuals. We conclude that the results follow the dynamics of habit-formation models of economic theory, and thus, this study provides the first scientific basis for this type of preference modeling.

Improved Equivalent Frame Analysis Method for Flat Plate Structures in Vicinity of Edge Columns

This paper proposes a modification to the ACI 318-02 equivalent frame method of analysis of reinforced concrete flat plate exterior panels. Two existing code methods were examined: ACI 318 and BS 8110. The derivation of the torsional stiffness of the edge strip as proposed by ACI 318 is examined and a more accurate estimate of this value is proposed, based on both theoretical analysis and experimental results. A series of 1/3-scale models of flat plate exterior panels have been tested. Unique experimental results were obtained by measuring strains in reinforcing bars at approximately 200 selected locations in the plate panel throughout the entire loading history. The measured strains were used to calculate curvature and, hence, bending moments; these were used along with moments in the columns to assess the accuracy of the equivalent frame methods. The proposed method leads to a more accurate prediction of the moments in the plate at the column front face, at the panel midspan, and in the edge column. Registered Subscribers: View the full article. This document is available as a free download to qualified members. An electronic (PDF) version is available for purchase and download. Click on the Order Now button to continue with the download.

Multi-MeV proton source investigations in ultraintense laser- foil interactions

A study of the properties of multi-MeV proton emission from thin foils following ultraintense laser irradiation has been carried out. It has been shown that the protons are emitted, in a quasilaminar fashion, from a region of transverse size of the order of 100-200 mum. The imaging properties of the proton source are equivalent to those of a much smaller source located several hundred mum in front of the foil. This finding has been obtained by analyzing proton radiographs of periodically structured test objects, and is corroborated by observations of proton emission from laser-heated thick targets.

Long-term return reversals-Value and growth or tax? UK evidence

This paper examines (i) whether value-growth characteristics have more power than past performance in predicting return reversals; and (ii) whether typical rational behaviour such as incentives to delay paying capital gain taxes can better explain long-term reversals than past performance. We find that value-growth characteristics generally provide better explanations for long-term stock returns than past performance. The evidence also shows that winners identified by capital gains dominate past performance winners in predicting reversals in the cross-sectional comparison. However, in the time-series analysis, when returns on capital gain winners are adjusted by the Fama and French (1996) risk factors, the predictive power of capital gain winners disappears. Our results show that capital gain winners are heavily featured as growth stocks. Return reversals in capital gain winners potentially reflect market price corrections for growth stocks. We conclude that investors’ incentives to delay paying capital gain taxes cannot fully rationalise long-term reversals in the UK market. Our results also imply that the long-term return pattern potentially reflects a mixture of investor rational and irrational behaviour.