68 resultados para microphysics


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Neste artigo, estamos desenvolvendo um estudo relativo às instituições totais. Pesquisamos no romance O Ateneu de Raul Pompéia quais são os dispositivos disciplinares produtores de subjetividade no contexto institucional. Trata-se de uma análise institucional tomando como campo de pesquisa um caso da literatura, pautada pelos referenciais de Goffman e de Foucault. Goffman diz o que são e como funcionam e indica o que produzem as instituições totais. Foucault, por sua vez, nos revela como são possíveis as instituições disciplinares e quais as razões de sua emergência. A leitura de Goffman a partir das análises de Foucault pode nos proporcionar um enriquecimento fecundo na compreensão dos processos de produção de subjetividade na sociedade contemporânea e, de modo específico, no contexto das instituições totais. Goffman analisa as práticas não-discursivas, ele as articula com grande sutileza, fazendo falar os detalhes mais pitorescos e aparentemente insignificantes do cotidiano institucional: percebemos então o plano microfísico das relações intra-institucionais, mergulhando nas diferentes estratégias nas quais o poder se ramifica, circula, domina e produz saberes e sujeitos.

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The leitmotif of this dissertation research is on the relationship between two fields of questioning in the Foucauldian works that may be considered, at a first glance, irreconcilable: the understanding of subject as the result of determinations, on the one hand, and its ethical stance of seeking the creation of liberty, on the other. Since, despite this apparent inconsistency, both ideas are present with much emphasis on the work of the French thinker, to understand the way Foucault articulated these two ideas was necessary to elucidate and interrelate the way in which he thought about the concepts of subject, power and liberty. Traveling with the author his intellectual itinerary, it was revealed that his conception of subject and liberty can be reconciled (although maintaining its problematic nature) and, also, both are inextricably linked each one as a result of the other. Tracing, with the author, his intellectual itinerary, it was also possible to identify and describe the fruitful conceptual tools for thinking about our own determinations and about the possibilities we have of creating new subjectivities and liberating experiences

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HIBISCUS is a project for studying the dynamics, microphysics and chemistry of the Tropical Tropopause Layer based on balloon measurements. Thirteen heavy sondes and 18 short duration balloons of different types have been used for local process studies. Eight superpressure (BP) and 3 Infra Red Montgolfier (MIR) long duration balloons have been flown for extending the investigations at global scale around the world. Overall the campaign has been very successful operationally as well as scientifically. The paper provides a description of the balloons, the instruments and the strategy used for meeting at best the goals of the project.

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Simulations of overshooting, tropical deep convection using a Cloud Resolving Model with bulk microphysics are presented in order to examine the effect on the water content of the TTL (Tropical Tropopause Layer) and lower stratosphere. This case study is a subproject of the HIBISCUS (Impact of tropical convection on the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere at global scale) campaign, which took place in Bauru, Brazil (22° S, 49° W), from the end of January to early March 2004. Comparisons between 2-D and 3-D simulations suggest that the use of 3-D dynamics is vital in order to capture the mixing between the overshoot and the stratospheric air, which caused evaporation of ice and resulted in an overall moistening of the lower stratosphere. In contrast, a dehydrating effect was predicted by the 2-D simulation due to the extra time, allowed by the lack of mixing, for the ice transported to the region to precipitate out of the overshoot air. Three different strengths of convection are simulated in 3-D by applying successively lower heating rates (used to initiate the convection) in the boundary layer. Moistening is produced in all cases, indicating that convective vigour is not a factor in whether moistening or dehydration is produced by clouds that penetrate the tropopause, since the weakest case only just did so. An estimate of the moistening effect of these clouds on an air parcel traversing a convective region is made based on the domain mean simulated moistening and the frequency of convective events observed by the IPMet (Instituto de Pesquisas Meteorológicas, Universidade Estadual Paulista) radar (S-band type at 2.8 Ghz) to have the same 10 dBZ echo top height as those simulated. These suggest a fairly significant mean moistening of 0.26, 0.13 and 0.05 ppmv in the strongest, medium and weakest cases, respectively, for heights between 16 and 17 km. Since the cold point and WMO (World Meteorological Organization) tropopause in this region lies at ∼ 15.9 km, this is likely to represent direct stratospheric moistening. Much more moistening is predicted for the 15-16 km height range with increases of 0.85-2.8 ppmv predicted. However, it would be required that this air is lofted through the tropopause via the Brewer Dobson circulation in order for it to have a stratospheric effect. Whether this is likely is uncertain and, in addition, the dehydration of air as it passes through the cold trap and the number of times that trajectories sample convective regions needs to be taken into account to gauge the overall stratospheric effect. Nevertheless, the results suggest a potentially significant role for convection in determining the stratospheric water content. Sensitivity tests exploring the impact of increased aerosol numbers in the boundary layer suggest that a corresponding rise in cloud droplet numbers at cloud base would increase the number concentrations of the ice crystals transported to the TTL, which had the effect of reducing the fall speeds of the ice and causing a ∼13% rise in the mean vapour increase in both the 15-16 and 16-17 km height ranges, respectively, when compared to the control case. Increases in the total water were much larger, being 34% and 132% higher for the same height ranges, but it is unclear whether the extra ice will be able to evaporate before precipitating from the region. These results suggest a possible impact of natural and anthropogenic aerosols on how convective clouds affect stratospheric moisture levels.

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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Esta Dissertação de Mestrado problematiza como os jornais paraenses, O Liberal e Diário do Pará, dois dos mais importantes periódicos da Amazônia na atualidade, produzem discursos sobre casos de violência sexual contra crianças e adolescentes. Tomamos, como suporte de pesquisa, notícias publicadas nas páginas policiais e em diversas editorias, ao longo da trajetória dos dois jornais, além de enunciados jornalísticos produzidos durante a vigência da Comissão Parlamentar de Inquérito (CPI) da Assembleia Legislativa do Estado do Pará (ALEPA), entre 2008 e 2010. Para tornar possível a análise discursiva sobre essa complexa temática, adotamos como metodologia a Análise do Discurso (AD) de vertente francesa, especialmente os postulados de Michel Foucault sobre discurso, história e poder, a fim de efetuarmos as leituras do corpus selecionado. Para aprofundarmos a nossa análise, fizemos um trabalho arqueológico da história da imprensa paraense para observarmos a atualização de redes de memória e as relações de poder que atravessam os discursos dos jornais sobre a temática, pois na microfísica de poder midiático amazônico ambos travam uma “guerra discursiva” registrada de forma peculiar em suas páginas. Assim, fizemos uma aproximação dos estudos da análise do discurso com os do jornalismo, por meio de teóricos do campo da Comunicação, como Nelson Traquina. Além disso, nossa pesquisa considerou nas análises as peculiaridades da Amazônia, região ao norte do país que sofre diversos apagamentos discursivos midiáticos nacionais ao longo da história e onde também observamos, em meio a sua diversidade, a prática cultural das “crias”, realidade que nossos estudos mostraram como secular e que até hoje retira crianças de cidades do interior para morar e estudar na capital. Essa e outras dinâmicas que envolvem o abuso e exploração sexual de crianças e adolescentes nos levaram à percepção de uma série de (ab)usos discursivos sobre o tema na imprensa paraense.

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Pós-graduação em Letras - FCLAR

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The fine particles serving as cloud condensation nuclei in pristine Amazonian rainforest air consist mostly of secondary organic aerosol. Their origin is enigmatic, however, because new particle formation in the atmosphere is not observed. Here, we show that the growth of organic aerosol particles can be initiated by potassium-salt-rich particles emitted by biota in the rainforest. These particles act as seeds for the condensation of low- or semi-volatile organic compounds from the atmospheric gas phase or multiphase oxidation of isoprene and terpenes. Our findings suggest that the primary emission of biogenic salt particles directly influences the number concentration of cloud condensation nuclei and affects the microphysics of cloud formation and precipitation over the rainforest.

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High aerosol loads are discharged into the atmosphere by biomass burning in Amazon and Central Brazil during the dry season. These particles can interact with clouds as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) changing cloud microphysics and radiative properties and, thereby, affecting the radiative budget of the region. Furthermore, the biomass burning aerosols can be transported by the low level jet (LLJ) to La Plata Basin where many mesoscale convective systems (MCS) are observed during spring and summer. This work proposes to investigate whether the aerosols from biomass burning may affect the MCS in terms of rainfall over La Plata Basin during spring. Since the aerosol effect is very difficult to isolate because convective clouds are very sensitive to small environment disturbances, detailed analyses using different techniques are used. The binplot, 2D histograms and combined empirical orthogonal function (EOF) methods are used to separate certain environment conditions with the possible effects of aerosol loading. Reanalysis 2, TRMM-3B42 and AERONET data are used from 1999 up to 2012 during September-December. The results show that there are two patterns associated to rainfall-aerosol interaction in La Plata Basin: one in which the dynamic conditions are more important than aerosols to generate rain; and a second one where the aerosol particles have a role in rain formation, acting mainly to suppress rainfall over La Plata Basin.

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Hochreichende Konvektion über Waldbränden ist eine der intensivsten Formen von atmosphärischer Konvektion. Die extreme Wolkendynamik mit hohen vertikalen Windgeschwindigkeiten (bis 20 m/s) bereits an der Wolkenbasis, hohen Wasserdampfübersättigungen (bis 1%) und die durch das Feuer hohen Anzahlkonzentration von Aerosolpartikeln (bis 100000 cm^-3) bilden einen besonderen Rahmen für Aerosol-Wolken Wechselwirkungen.Ein entscheidender Schritt in der mikrophysikalischen Entwicklung einer konvektiven Wolke ist die Aktivierung von Aerosolpartikeln zu Wolkentropfen. Dieser Aktivierungsprozess bestimmt die anfängliche Anzahl und Größe der Wolkentropfen und kann daher die Entwicklung einer konvektiven Wolke und deren Niederschlagsbildung beeinflussen. Die wichtigsten Faktoren, welche die anfängliche Anzahl und Größe der Wolkentropfen bestimmen, sind die Größe und Hygroskopizität der an der Wolkenbasis verfügbaren Aerosolpartikel sowie die vertikale Windgeschwindigkeit. Um den Einfluss dieser Faktoren unter pyro-konvektiven Bedingungen zu untersuchen, wurden numerische Simulationen mit Hilfe eines Wolkenpaketmodells mit detaillierter spektraler Beschreibung der Wolkenmikrophysik durchgeführt. Diese Ergebnisse können in drei unterschiedliche Bereiche abhängig vom Verhältnis zwischen vertikaler Windgeschwindigkeit und Aerosolanzahlkonzentration (w/NCN) eingeteilt werden: (1) ein durch die Aerosolkonzentration limitierter Bereich (hohes w/NCN), (2) ein durch die vertikale Windgeschwindigkeit limitierter Bereich (niedriges w/NCN) und (3) ein Übergangsbereich (mittleres w/NCN). Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass die Variabilität der anfänglichen Anzahlkonzentration der Wolkentropfen in (pyro-) konvektiven Wolken hauptsächlich durch die Variabilität der vertikalen Windgeschwindigkeit und der Aerosolkonzentration bestimmt wird. rnUm die mikrophysikalischen Prozesse innerhalb der rauchigen Aufwindregion einer pyrokonvektiven Wolke mit einer detaillierten spektralen Mikrophysik zu untersuchen, wurde das Paketmodel entlang einer Trajektorie innerhalb der Aufwindregion initialisiert. Diese Trajektore wurde durch dreidimensionale Simulationen eines pyro-konvektiven Ereignisses durch das Model ATHAM berechnet. Es zeigt sich, dass die Anzahlkonzentration der Wolkentropfen mit steigender Aerosolkonzentration ansteigt. Auf der anderen Seite verringert sich die Größe der Wolkentropfen mit steigender Aerosolkonzentration. Die Reduzierung der Verbreiterung des Tropfenspektrums stimmt mit den Ergebnissen aus Messungen überein und unterstützt das Konzept der Unterdrückung von Niederschlag in stark verschmutzen Wolken.Mit Hilfe des Models ATHAM wurden die dynamischen und mikrophysikalischen Prozesse von pyro-konvektiven Wolken, aufbauend auf einer realistischen Parametrisierung der Aktivierung von Aerosolpartikeln durch die Ergebnisse der Aktivierungsstudie, mit zwei- und dreidimensionalen Simulationen untersucht. Ein modernes zweimomenten mikrophysikalisches Schema wurde in ATHAM implementiert, um den Einfluss der Anzahlkonzentration von Aerosolpartikeln auf die Entwicklung von idealisierten pyro-konvektiven Wolken in US Standardamtosphären für die mittleren Breiten und den Tropen zu untersuchen. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass die Anzahlkonzentration der Aerosolpartikel die Bildung von Regen beeinflusst. Für geringe Aerosolkonzentrationen findet die rasche Regenbildung hauptsächlich durch warme mikrophysikalische Prozesse statt. Für höhere Aerosolkonzentrationen ist die Eisphase wichtiger für die Bildung von Regen. Dies führt zu einem verspäteten Einsetzen von Niederschlag für verunreinigtere Atmosphären. Außerdem wird gezeigt, dass die Zusammensetzung der Eisnukleationspartikel (IN) einen starken Einfluss auf die dynamische und mikrophysikalische Struktur solcher Wolken hat. Bei sehr effizienten IN bildet sich Regen früher. Die Untersuchung zum Einfluss des atmosphärischen Hintergrundprofils zeigt eine geringe Auswirkung der Meteorologie auf die Sensitivität der pyro-konvektiven Wolken auf diernAerosolkonzentration. Zum Abschluss wird gezeigt, dass die durch das Feuer emittierte Hitze einen deutlichen Einfluss auf die Entwicklung und die Wolkenobergrenze von pyro-konvektive Wolken hat. Zusammenfassend kann gesagt werden, dass in dieser Dissertation die Mikrophysik von pyrokonvektiven Wolken mit Hilfe von idealisierten Simulation eines Wolkenpaketmodell mit detaillierte spektraler Mikrophysik und eines 3D Modells mit einem zweimomenten Schema im Detail untersucht wurde. Es wird gezeigt, dass die extremen Bedingungen im Bezug auf die vertikale Windgeschwindigkeiten und Aerosolkonzentrationen einen deutlichen Einfluss auf die Entwicklung von pyro-konvektiven Wolken haben.

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Ice clouds have a strong effect on the Earth-atmosphere radiative energy balance, on the distribution of condensable gases in the atmosphere, as well as on the chemical composition of the air. The ice particles in these clouds can take on a variety of shapes which makes the description of the cloud microphysical properties more difficult. In the tropical upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (UTLS), a region where ice cloud abundance is relatively high, different types of ice clouds can be observed. However, in situ measurements are rare due to the high altitude of these clouds and the few available research aircraft, only three worldwide, that can fly at such altitudes.rnThis work focuses on in situ measurements of the tropical UTLS clouds performedrnwith a Cloud Imaging Probe (CIP) and a Forward Scattering Spectrometer Probern(FSSP-100), whereof the CIP is the key instrument of this thesis. The CIP is anrnairborne in situ instrument that obtains two-dimensional shadow images of cloud particles. Several cloud microphysical parameters can be derived from these measurements, e.g. number concentrations and size distributions. In order to obtain a high quality data set, a careful image analysis and several corrections need to be applied to the CIP observations. These methods are described in detail.rnMeasurements within the tropical UTLS have been performed during two campaigns:rnSCOUT-O3, 2005 in Northern Australia and SCOUT-AMMA, 2006 inWest Africa. Thernobtained data set includes first observations of subvisible cirrus clouds over a continental area and observations of the anvils of deep convective clouds. The latter can be further divided into clouds in mesoscale convective system outflows of different ages and clouds in overshooting cloud turrets that even penetrated the stratosphere. The microphysical properties of these three cloud types are discussed in detail. Furthermore, the vertical structure of the ice clouds in the UTLS is investigated. The values of the microphysical parameters were found to decrease with increasing altitude in the upper troposphere. Particle numbers and maximum sizes were also decreasing with increasing age of the outflow clouds. Further differences between the deep convective clouds and subvisible cirrus were found in the particle morphology as well as in the ratio of the observed aerosol particles to cloud particles which indicates that the different freezing processes (deposition, contact, immersion freezing) play different roles in the formation of the respective clouds. For the achievementrnof a better microphysical characterisation and description numerical fits have been adjusted onto the cloud particle size distributions of the subvisible cirrus as well as on the size distributions of the clouds at different altitudes in the UTLS.

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This study aims at a comprehensive understanding of the effects of aerosol-cloud interactions and their effects on cloud properties and climate using the chemistry-climate model EMAC. In this study, CCN activation is regarded as the dominant driver in aerosol-cloud feedback loops in warm clouds. The CCN activation is calculated prognostically using two different cloud droplet nucleation parameterizations, the STN and HYB CDN schemes. Both CDN schemes account for size and chemistry effects on the droplet formation based on the same aerosol properties. The calculation of the solute effect (hygroscopicity) is the main difference between the CDN schemes. The kappa-method is for the first time incorporated into Abdul-Razzak and Ghan activation scheme (ARG) to calculate hygroscopicity and critical supersaturation of aerosols (HYB), and the performance of the modied scheme is compared with the osmotic coefficient model (STN), which is the standard in the ARG scheme. Reference simulations (REF) with the prescribed cloud droplet number concentration have also been carried out in order to understand the effects of aerosol-cloud feedbacks. In addition, since the calculated cloud coverage is an important determinant of cloud radiative effects and is influencing the nucleation process two cloud cover parameterizations (i.e., a relative humidity threshold; RH-CLC and a statistical cloud cover scheme; ST-CLC) have been examined together with the CDN schemes, and their effects on the simulated cloud properties and relevant climate parameters have been investigated. The distinct cloud droplet spectra show strong sensitivity to aerosol composition effects on cloud droplet formation in all particle sizes, especially for the Aitken mode. As Aitken particles are the major component of the total aerosol number concentration and CCN, and are most sensitive to aerosol chemical composition effect (solute effect) on droplet formation, the activation of Aitken particles strongly contribute to total cloud droplet formation and thereby providing different cloud droplet spectra. These different spectra influence cloud structure, cloud properties, and climate, and show regionally varying sensitivity to meteorological and geographical condition as well as the spatiotemporal aerosol properties (i.e., particle size, number, and composition). The changes responding to different CDN schemes are more pronounced at lower altitudes than higher altitudes. Among regions, the subarctic regions show the strongest changes, as the lower surface temperature amplifies the effects of the activated aerosols; in contrast, the Sahara desert, where is an extremely dry area, is less influenced by changes in CCN number concentration. The aerosol-cloud coupling effects have been examined by comparing the prognostic CDN simulations (STN, HYB) with the reference simulation (REF). Most pronounced effects are found in the cloud droplet number concentration, cloud water distribution, and cloud radiative effect. The aerosol-cloud coupling generally increases cloud droplet number concentration; this decreases the efficiency of the formation of weak stratiform precipitation, and increases the cloud water loading. These large-scale changes lead to larger cloud cover and longer cloud lifetime, and contribute to high optical thickness and strong cloud cooling effects. This cools the Earth's surface, increases atmospheric stability, and reduces convective activity. These changes corresponding to aerosol-cloud feedbacks are also differently simulated depending on the cloud cover scheme. The ST-CLC scheme is more sensitive to aerosol-cloud coupling, since this scheme uses a tighter linkage of local dynamics and cloud water distributions in cloud formation process than the RH-CLC scheme. For the calculated total cloud cover, the RH-CLC scheme simulates relatively similar pattern to observations than the ST-CLC scheme does, but the overall properties (e.g., total cloud cover, cloud water content) in the RH simulations are overestimated, particularly over ocean. This is mainly originated from the difference in simulated skewness in each scheme: the RH simulations calculate negatively skewed distributions of cloud cover and relevant cloud water, which is similar to that of the observations, while the ST simulations yield positively skewed distributions resulting in lower mean values than the RH-CLC scheme does. The underestimation of total cloud cover over ocean, particularly over the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) relates to systematic defficiency of the prognostic calculation of skewness in the current set-ups of the ST-CLC scheme.rnOverall, the current EMAC model set-ups perform better over continents for all combinations of the cloud droplet nucleation and cloud cover schemes. To consider aerosol-cloud feedbacks, the HYB scheme is a better method for predicting cloud and climate parameters for both cloud cover schemes than the STN scheme. The RH-CLC scheme offers a better simulation of total cloud cover and the relevant parameters with the HYB scheme and single-moment microphysics (REF) than the ST-CLC does, but is not very sensitive to aerosol-cloud interactions.

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Die Mikrophysik in Wolken bestimmt deren Strahlungseigenschaften und beeinflusst somit auch den Strahlungshaushalt des Planeten Erde. Aus diesem Grund werden im Rahmen der vorliegenden Arbeit die mikrophysikalischen Charakteristika von Cirrus-Wolken sowie von arktischen Grenzschicht-Wolken behandelt. Die Untersuchung dieser Wolken wurde mithilfe verschiedener Instrumente verwirklicht, welche Partikel in einem Durchmesserbereich von 250nm bis zu 6.4mm vermessen und an Forschungsflugzeugen montiert werden. Ein Instrumentenvergleich bestätigt, dass innerhalb der Bereiche in denen sich die Messungen dieser Instrumente überlappen, die auftretenden Diskrepanzen als sehr gering einzustufen sind. Das vorrangig verwendete Instrument trägt die Bezeichnung CCP (Cloud Combination Probe) und ist eine Kombination aus einem Instrument, das Wolkenpartikel anhand von vorwärts-gerichtetem Streulicht detektiert und einem weiteren, das zweidimensionale Schattenbilder einzelner Wolkenpartikel aufzeichnet. Die Untersuchung von Cirrus-Wolken erfolgt mittels Daten der AIRTOSS-ICE (AIRcraft TOwed Sensor Shuttle - Inhomogeneous Cirrus Experiment) Kampagne, welche im Jahr 2013 über der deutschen Nord- und Ostsee stattfand. Parameter wie Partikeldurchmesser, Partikelanzahlkonzentration, Partikelform, Eiswassergehalt, Wolkenhöhe und Wolkendicke der detektierten Cirrus-Wolken werden bestimmt und im Kontext des aktuellen Wissenstandes diskutiert. Des Weiteren wird eine beprobte Cirrus-Wolke im Detail analysiert, welche den typischen Entwicklungsprozess und die vertikale Struktur dieser Wolkengattung widerspiegelt. Arktische Grenzschicht-Wolken werden anhand von Daten untersucht, die während der VERDI (VERtical Distribution of Ice in Arctic Clouds) Kampagne im Jahr 2012 über der kanadischen Beaufortsee aufgezeichnet wurden. Diese Messkampagne fand im Frühling statt, um die Entwicklung von Eis-Wolken über Mischphasen-Wolken bis hin zu Flüssigwasser-Wolken zu beobachten. Unter bestimmten atmosphärischen Bedingungen tritt innerhalb von Mischphasen-Wolken der sogenannte Wegener-Bergeron-Findeisen Prozess auf, bei dem Flüssigwassertropfen zugunsten von Eispartikeln verdampfen. Es wird bestätigt, dass dieser Prozess anhand von mikrophysikalischen Messungen, insbesondere den daraus resultierenden Größenverteilungen, nachweisbar ist. Darüber hinaus wird eine arktische Flüssigwasser-Wolke im Detail untersucht, welche im Inneren das Auftreten von monomodalen Tröpfchen-Größenverteilungen zeigt. Mit zunehmender Höhe wachsen die Tropfen an und die Maxima der Größenverteilungen verschieben sich hin zu größeren Durchmessern. Dahingegen findet im oberen Übergangsbereich dieser Flüssigwasser-Wolke, zwischen Wolke und freier Atmosphäre, ein Wechsel von monomodalen zu bimodalen Tröpfchen-Größenverteilungen statt. Diese weisen eine Mode 1 mit einem Tropfendurchmesser von 20μm und eine Mode 2 mit einem Tropfendurchmesser von 10μm auf. Das dieses Phänomen eventuell typisch für arktische Flüssigwasser-Wolken ist, zeigen an dem Datensatz durchgeführte Analysen. Mögliche Entstehungsprozesse der zweiten Mode können durch Kondensation von Wasserdampf auf eingetragenen Aerosolpartikeln, die aus einer Luftschicht oberhalb der Wolke stammen oder durch Wirbel, welche trockene Luftmassen in die Wolke induzieren und Verdampfungsprozesse von Wolkentröpfchen hervorrufen, erklärt werden. Unter Verwendung einer direkten numerischen Simulation wird gezeigt, dass die Einmischung von trockenen Luftmassen in den Übergangsbereich der Wolke am wahrscheinlichsten die Ausbildung von Mode 2 verursacht.

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Physicalism, as in this paper, holds that every instance of causation reported by the special sciences is shadowed, even rivaled, by causation at the level of microphysics. The reported "cause" is embodied in one massive collection of microparticle events; the "effect" in another; the former brings about the latter by laws of physics. This paper argues that while individual events in the "cause" collection bring about individual events in the "effect" collection, it does not follow, and is unbelievable, that the "cause" collection itself brings anything about. Causings reported by the special sciences can be traced only at that level.

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It is commonly understood that the observed decline in precipitation in South-West Australia during the 20th century is caused by anthropogenic factors. Candidates therefore are changes to large-scale atmospheric circulations due to global warming, extensive deforestation and anthropogenic aerosol emissions - all of which are effective on different spatial and temporal scales. This contribution focusses on the role of rapidly rising aerosol emissions from anthropogenic sources in South-West Australia around 1970. An analysis of historical longterm rainfall data of the Bureau of Meteorology shows that South-West Australia as a whole experienced a gradual decline in precipitation over the 20th century. However, on smaller scales and for the particular example of the Perth catchment area, a sudden drop in precipitation around 1970 is apparent. Modelling experiments at a convection-resolving resolution of 3.3km using the Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) model version 3.6.1 with the aerosol-aware Thompson-Eidhammer microphysics scheme are conducted for the period 1970-1974. A comparison of four runs with different prescribed aerosol emissions and without aerosol effects demonstrates that tripling the pre-1960s atmospheric CCN and IN concentrations can suppress precipitation by 2-9%, depending on the area and the season. This suggests that a combination of all three processes is required to account for the gradual decline in rainfall seen for greater South-West Australia and for the sudden drop observed in areas along the West Coast in the 1970s: changing atmospheric circulations, deforestation and anthropogenic aerosol emissions.