Determining underlying macroeconomic fundamentals during emerging market crises: Are conditions as bad as they seem?

Emerging market crises are characterized by large swings in both macroeconomic fundamentalsand asset prices. The economic significance of observed movements in macroeconomicvariables is obscured by the brief and extreme nature of crises. In this paper we propose to study the macroeconomic consequences of crises by studying the behavior of effective fundamentals, constructed by studying the relative movements of stock prices during crises. We find that these effective fundamentals provide a different picture than that implied by observed fundamentals. First, asset prices often reflect expectations of improvement in fundamentals after the initial devaluations; specifically, effective depreciations are positive but not as large as the observed ones. Second, crises vary in their effect on credit market conditions, with investors expecting tightening of credit in some cases (Mexico 1994, Philippines 1997), but loosening of credit in others (Sweden 1992, Korea 1997, Brazil 1999).

Evaluating predictive densities of U.S. output growth and inflation in a large macroeconomic data set

We evaluate conditional predictive densities for U.S. output growth and inflationusing a number of commonly used forecasting models that rely on a large number ofmacroeconomic predictors. More specifically, we evaluate how well conditional predictive densities based on the commonly used normality assumption fit actual realizationsout-of-sample. Our focus on predictive densities acknowledges the possibility that, although some predictors can improve or deteriorate point forecasts, they might have theopposite effect on higher moments. We find that normality is rejected for most modelsin some dimension according to at least one of the tests we use. Interestingly, however,combinations of predictive densities appear to be correctly approximated by a normaldensity: the simple, equal average when predicting output growth and Bayesian modelaverage when predicting inflation.

The macroeconomic effects of German unification: Real adjustments and the welfare state

We study the effects of German unification in a model with capital accumulation, skill differences and a welfare state. We argue that this event is similar to a mass migration of low-skilled agents holding no capital into a foreign country. Absent a welfare state, we observe an investment boom, depressed output and employment conditions. Capital owners and high-skilled agents are willing to give up to 4% of per-capita consumption to favor unification. When a welfare state exists the investment boom disappears and the recession is prolonged. Now, with unification, capital owners and high-skilled agents lose 4% of per-capita consumption.

Does it cost to be virtuous? The macroeconomic effects of fiscal constraints

We study whether and how fiscal restrictions alter the business cycle features of macrovariables for a sample of 48 US states. We also examine the typical transmission properties of fiscal disturbances and the implied fiscal rules of states with different fiscal restrictions. Fiscal constraints are characterized with a number of indicators. There are similarities in second moments of macrovariables and in the transmission properties of fiscal shocks across states with different fiscal constraints. The cyclical response of expenditure differs in size and sometimes in sign, but heterogeneity within groups makes point estimates statistically insignificant. Creative budget accounting is responsible for the pattern. Implications for the design of fiscal rules and the reform of the Stability and Growth Pact are discussed.

Macroeconomic modeling for monetary policy evaluation

We describe some of the main features of the recent vintage macroeconomic models used for monetary policy evaluation. We point to some of the key differences with respect to the earlier generation ofmacro models, and highlight the insights for policy that these new frameworks have to offer. Our discussion emphasizes two key aspects of the new models: the significant role of expectations of future policy actions in the monetary transmission mechanism, and the importance for the central bank of tracking of the flexible price equilibrium values of the natural levels of output and the real interest rate. We argue that both features have important implications for the conduct of monetary policy.

The macroeconomic effects of oil price shocks: Why are the 2000s so different from the 1970s?

We characterize the macroeconomic performance of a set of industrialized economies in the aftermath of the oil price shocks of the 1970s and of the last decade, focusing on the differences across episodes. We examine four different hypotheses for the mild effects on inflation and economic activity of the recent increase in the price of oil: (a) good luck (i.e. lack of concurrent adverse shocks), (b) smaller share of oil in production, (c) more flexible labor markets, and (d) improvements in monetary policy. Weconclude that all four have played an important role.

Mothers' and fathers' views of the interdependence of their relationships with their infant: a systems perspective on early family relationships.

This study examined the interrelatedness of mother-infant and father-infant relationships as they develop over the first 4 months postpartum as well as the dynamics used by the couple to balance these relationships. First-time mother-father couples (n = 18) were interviewed separately at 1, 6, and 16 weeks postpartum using the Parent-Infant Relationship Interview. The data were analyzed using in-depth qualitative strategies. The parents' core themes of their early family relationships ranged from an undifferentiated unit at 1 week, to being a highly disorganized unit at 6 weeks, to a more integrated unit at 16 weeks. These results suggest that one should be thinking of early family relationships and parenting in terms of "messy processes" out of which new ways of being together are created. This disorganization plays a fundamental role in the establishment of early family relationships and warrants further empirical and clinical attention.

Aggregate shocks or vertical tax interdependence? Evidende from gasoline and cigarettes

[cat] Besley i Rosen -1998- van ser els primers autors en estimar empíricament la rellevància de les externalitats impositives verticals. Aquests autors varen fer-ho per al cas dels impostos sobre la benzina i el tabac, en concret, per al cas dels EEUU. Ara bé, no varen tenir en compte les diferències en el nivell de vida entre Estats: àrees amb un nivell elevat paguen menys en termes reals que àrees amb un nivell de vida baix, doncs l'impost unitari sobre la benzina o sobre el tabac no difereix d'acord amb l'Estat on l'impost s'aplica. En conseqüència, proposem que la competència impositiva vertical sigui estimada deflactant totes les variables monetàries utilitzant l'anomenat "House Price Index (HPI)", el qual està disponible al nivell dels Estats. Això genera una variable impositiva federal expressada en termes reals i que presenta variació entre Estats. Aquesta estratègia empírica ens permet diferenciar entre la interdependència vertical entre els tipus impositius federals i els estatals de shocks agregats al llarg del temps, utilitzant dades per als EEUU durant el període 1975 a 2006 per a benzina i tabac. Trobem una nivell significatiu de competència impositiva horitzontal, la qual és més elevada en el cas del tabac, però en cap cas reacció impositiva vertical. Els resultats són robustos al període analitzat.

Aggregate shocks or vertical tax interdependence? Evidende from gasoline and cigarettes

[cat] Besley i Rosen -1998- van ser els primers autors en estimar empíricament la rellevància de les externalitats impositives verticals. Aquests autors varen fer-ho per al cas dels impostos sobre la benzina i el tabac, en concret, per al cas dels EEUU. Ara bé, no varen tenir en compte les diferències en el nivell de vida entre Estats: àrees amb un nivell elevat paguen menys en termes reals que àrees amb un nivell de vida baix, doncs l'impost unitari sobre la benzina o sobre el tabac no difereix d'acord amb l'Estat on l'impost s'aplica. En conseqüència, proposem que la competència impositiva vertical sigui estimada deflactant totes les variables monetàries utilitzant l'anomenat "House Price Index (HPI)", el qual està disponible al nivell dels Estats. Això genera una variable impositiva federal expressada en termes reals i que presenta variació entre Estats. Aquesta estratègia empírica ens permet diferenciar entre la interdependència vertical entre els tipus impositius federals i els estatals de shocks agregats al llarg del temps, utilitzant dades per als EEUU durant el període 1975 a 2006 per a benzina i tabac. Trobem una nivell significatiu de competència impositiva horitzontal, la qual és més elevada en el cas del tabac, però en cap cas reacció impositiva vertical. Els resultats són robustos al període analitzat.

Winner-Loser Performance and Macroeconomic Effects during three last Economic Crises in Finnish Stock Market

The main purpose of this thesis is to investigate winner-loser performance when financial markets are facing crisis. This is examined through the idea that does the prior loser portfolios outperform the prior winner portfolios during the three major crises: The depression of the 1990s, the IT-Bubble and the Subprime -crisis. Firstly, the winner and loser portfolios superiority is counted by using the cumulative excess returns from the examination period. The portfolios were formed by counting the excess returns and locating them in to the order of superiority. The excess returns are counted by using one year pre-data before the actual examination period. The results of this part did not support the results of De Bondt & Thaler’s (1985) paper. Secondly, it is investigated how the Finnish and the US macroeconomic factors are seen to be affecting the stock market valuation in Finnish Stock Markets during economic crises. This is done to explain better the changes in the successes of the winner-loser performance. The crises included different amount of selected macro factors. Two latest crises involved as well few selected US macro factors. Exclusively the IT-Bubble -crisis had the most statistically significant results with the US factors. Two other crises did not receive statistically significant results. An extra research was produced to study do the US macro factors impact more significantly on Finnish stock exchange after lags. The selected lags were three, six, nine and twelve months. Three and six month lagged US macro factors during the IT-Bubble -crisis improved the results. The extra research did not improve the results of the Subprime -crisis.

Predicting Market Crashes: An Examination of the Performance of Macroeconomic Indicators and Technical Analysis

The purpose of this study is to examine macroeconomic indicators‟ and technical analysis‟ ability to signal market crashes. Indicators examined were Yield Spread, The Purchasing Managers Index and the Consumer Confidence Index. Technical Analysis indicators were moving average, Moving Average Convergence-Divergence and Relative Strength Index. We studied if commonly used macroeconomic indicators can be used as a warning system for a stock market crashes as well. The hypothesis is that the signals of recession can be used as signals of stock market crash and that way a basis for a hedging strategy. The data is collected from the U.S. markets from the years 1983-2010. Empirical studies show that macroeconomic indicators have been able to explain the future GDP development in the U.S. in research period and they were statistically significant. A hedging strategy that combined the signals of yield spread and Consumer Confidence Index gave most useful results as a basis of a hedging strategy in selected time period. It was able to outperform buy-and-hold strategy as well as all of the technical indicator based hedging strategies.