Business cycle dynamics with duration dependence and leading indicators

Durland and McCurdy [Durland, J.M., McCurdy, T.H., 1994. Duration-dependent transitions in a Markov model of US GNP growth. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 12, 279–288] investigated the issue of duration dependence in US business cycle phases using a Markov regime-switching approach, introduced by Hamilton [Hamilton, J., 1989. A new approach to the analysis of time series and the business cycle. Econometrica 57, 357–384] and extended to the case of variable transition parameters by Filardo [Filardo, A.J., 1994. Business cycle phases and their transitional dynamics. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 12, 299–308]. In Durland and McCurdy’s model duration alone was used as an explanatory variable of the transition probabilities. They found that recessions were duration dependent whilst expansions were not. In this paper, we explicitly incorporate the widely-accepted US business cycle phase change dates as determined by the NBER, and use a state-dependent multinomial Logit modelling framework. The model incorporates both duration and movements in two leading indexes – one designed to have a short lead (SLI) and the other designed to have a longer lead (LLI) – as potential explanatory variables. We find that doing so suggests that current duration is not only a significant determinant of transition out of recessions, but that there is some evidence that it is also weakly significant in the case of expansions. Furthermore, we find that SLI has more informational content for the termination of recessions whilst LLI does so for expansions.

Measuring voluntary dietary change in response to exercise : a focus on dietary fat

Traditional treatments for weight management have focussed on prescribed dietary restriction or regular exercise, or a combination of both. However recidivism for such prescribed treatments remains high, particularly among the overweight and obese. The aim of this thesis was to investigate voluntary dietary changes in the presence of prescribed mixed-mode exercise, conducted over 16 weeks. With the implementation of a single lifestyle change (exercise) it was postulated that the onerous burden of concomitant dietary and exercise compliance would be reduced, leading to voluntary lifestyle changes in such areas as diet. In addition, the failure of exercise as a single weight loss treatment has been reported to be due to compensatory energy intakes, although much of the evidence is from acute exercise studies, necessitating investigation of compensatory intakes during a long-term exercise intervention. Following 16 weeks of moderate intensity exercise, 30 overweight and obese (BMI≥25.00 kg.m-2) men and women showed small but statistically significant decreases in mean dietary fat intakes, without compensatory increases in other macronutrient or total energy intakes. Indeed total energy intakes were significantly lower for men and women following the exercise intervention, due to the decreases in dietary fat intakes. There was a risk that acceptance of the statistical validity of the small changes to dietary fat intakes may have constituted a Type 1 error, with false rejection of the Null hypothesis. Oro-sensory perceptions to changes in fat loads were therefore investigated to determine whether the measured dietary fat changes were detectable by the human palate. The ability to detect small changes in dietary fat provides sensory feedback for self-initiated dietary changes, but lean and overweight participants were unable to distinguish changes to fat loads of similar magnitudes to that measured in the exercise intervention study. Accuracy of the dietary measurement instrument was improved with the effects of random error (day-to-day variability) minimised with the use of a statistically validated 8-day, multiple-pass, 24 hour dietary recall instrument. However systematic error (underreporting) may have masked the magnitude of dietary change, particularly the reduction in dietary fat intakes. A purported biomarker (plasma Apolipoprotein A-IV) (apoA-IV) was subsequently investigated, to monitor systematic error in self-reported dietary intakes. Changes in plasma apoA-IV concentrations were directly correlated with increased and decreased changes to dietary fat intakes, suggesting that this objective marker may be a useful tool to improve the accuracy of dietary measurement in overweight and obese populations, who are susceptible to dietary underreporting.

Transforming organizational leadership : a schema change perspective

Successful organizational transformation typically requires transformed leadership; that is, fundamental changes in the implicit leadership schema that underpin observed organizational leadership practice. The purpose of this study is to elaborate leadership schema change theory by investigating a case study in which the CEO of a public infrastructure organization sought to transform traditional organizational leadership to facilitate wider organization transformation. Data were generated through focus groups and semi-structured interviews at four points over a three-year period. Our findings suggest that (a) change leader initiatives do not necessarily activate the cognitive processing required to achieve leadership schema change, (b) collective schema change, defined in terms of the system of beliefs and values underlying the new leading-managing schema did not occur, however, (c) sub-schema change did occur. The research contributes to existing literature on implicit leadership schema change in three main ways. First, we provide a schema change framework to guide current and future research on schema change. Second, we highlight the role that both change leader initiatives and individual and social processing play in schema change. Finally, we stress the role of teleological processes in leadership schema change.

Unpacking the opportunities for change within a family owned manufacturing SME : a design led innovation case study

The following paper presents insights found during an ongoing industry engagement with a family-owned manufacturing SME in Australia. The initial findings presented as a case study look at the opportunities available to the firm engaging in a design led approach to innovation. Over the period of one year, the first author’s immersion within the firm seeks to unpack the cultural, strategic, product opportunities and challenges when adopting design led innovation. This can provide a better understanding of how a firm can more effectively assess their value proposition in the market and what factors of the business are imperative in stimulating competitive difference. The core insight identified from this paper is that design led innovation cannot be seen and treated as a discrete event, nor a series of steps or stages; rather the whole business model needs to be in focus to achieve holistic, sustainable innovation. Initial insights were found through qualitative interviews with internal employees including: overcoming silos; moving from reactive to proactive design; empowerment; vision for growth and the framing of innovation.

Ecological footprinting : its potential as a tool for change in preservice teacher education

Environmental and sustainability issues pose challenges for society. Although education is seen as being a contributor to addressing sustainability, teacher education has been slow to act in preparing future teachers to teach sustainability. Recent Australian curriculum documents nominate sustainability as one of three cross-curriculum priorities. In one Australian university course, an Ecological Footprint Calculator tool has been employed to challenge preservice early childhood teachers to consider the sustainability of their lifestyles as a means for engaging them in learning and teaching for sustainability. Students enrolled in an integrated arts and humanities subject voluntarily engaged with the online calculator and shared their findings on an electronic discussion forum. These postings then became the basis of qualitative analysis and discussion. Data categories included reactions and reflections on reasons for the ‘heaviness’ of their footprints , student reactions leading to actions to reduce their footprints, reflections on the implications of the footprint results for future teaching, reactions that considered the need for societal change, and reflections on the integration of sustainability with the visual arts. The power of the tool’s application to stimulate interest in sustainability and education for sustainability more broadly in teacher education is explored.

Towards the development of a best practice index for the disclosure of organisations' climate change-related corporate governance practices

The aim of this study is to develop a disclosure guide for climate-change-related corporate governance (CCCG) practices. Drawing from existing climate change policy guidelines together with content analysis of leading Australian companies’ disclosure practices, we develop a best practice index for the disclosure of CCCG practises. The best practice index is further informed, validated and refined by the contribution of experts from a range of stakeholder groups. Our index represents the most comprehensive list generated to date, utilising experts’ opinions, in relation to CCCG disclosure practices. This CCCG disclosure index would be useful for companies seeking to provide information in relation their CCCG practices

Responding to a transformative stressor : climate change and the institutional governance of Australian cities

This paper understands climate change as a transformative stressor that will prompt responses from institutional governance frameworks in Australian cities. A transformative stressor is characterised as a chronic large-scale phenomenon which triggers a process of institutional change whereby institutions seek to reorientate their activities to better manage the social, economic and environmental impacts created by the transformative dynamic. It is posited that institutional change will be required as Australian metropolitan institutional governance frameworks seek to manage climate change effects in urban environments. It is argued that improved operationalisation of adaptation is required as part of a comprehensive urban response to the transformative stresses climate change and its effects are predicted to create in Australian cities. The operationalisation of adaptation refers to adaptation becoming incorporated, codified and implemented as a central principle of metro-regional planning governance. This paper has three key purposes. First, it examines theoretical and conceptual understandings of the role of transformative stressors in compelling institutional change within urban settings. Second, it establishes a conceptual approach that understands climate change as a transformative stressor requiring institutional change within the metropolitan planning frameworks of Australia's cities. Third, it offers early results and conclusions from an empirical investigation into the current prospects for operationalisation of climate adaptation in planning programs within Southeast Queensland (SEQ) via changes to institutional governance. A significant emerging conclusion is that early climate stresses appear not to be leading to episodic institutional change in the metropolitan planning frameworks of SEQ.

Storylines of institutional responses to climate change as a transformative stressor : the case of regional planning in South East Queensland, Australia

Institutional responses to climate change stresses through planning will require new and amended forms of governance. Institutional framing of change imperatives can significantly condition associated governance responses. This paper builds on scholarly conversations concerning the conceptual role of ‘storylines’ in shaping institutional responses to climate change through governance. It draws on conceptual perspectives of climate change as a ‘transformative stressor’, which can compel institutional transformation within planning. The concepts of storylines and transformative stressors are conceptually linked. The conceptual approach is applied to an empirical enquiry focused on the regional planning regime of South East Queensland (SEQ), Australia. This paper reports and examines three institutional storylines of responding to climate change through planning governance in SEQ. It concludes that the manifestation of climate change as a transformative stressor in SEQ prompted institutional transformation, leading to a dominant storyline focused on climate adaptation as an important facet of regional planning governance.

Climate change and IMO technical and operational measures for reduction of emissions of greenhouse gas from ships

According to a study conducted by the International Maritime organisation (IMO) shipping sector is responsible for 3.3% of the global Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions. The 1997 Kyoto Protocol calls upon states to pursue limitation or reduction of emissions of GHG from marine bunker fuels working through the IMO. In 2011, 14 years after the adoption of the Kyoto Protocol, the Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC) of the IMO has adopted mandatory energy efficiency measures for international shipping which can be treated as the first ever mandatory global GHG reduction instrument for an international industry. The MEPC approved an amendment of Annex VI of the 1973 International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships (MARPOL 73/78) to introduce a mandatory Energy Efficiency Design Index (EEDI) for new ships and the Ship Energy Efficiency Management Plan (SEEMP) for all ships. Considering the growth projections of human population and world trade the technical and operational measures may not be able to reduce the amount of GHG emissions from international shipping in a satisfactory level. Therefore, the IMO is considering to introduce market-based mechanisms that may serve two purposes including providing a fiscal incentive for the maritime industry to invest in more energy efficient manner and off-setting of growing ship emissions. Some leading developing countries already voiced their serious reservations on the newly adopted IMO regulations stating that by imposing the same obligation on all countries, irrespective of their economic status, this amendment has rejected the Principle of Common but Differentiated Responsibility (the CBDR Principle), which has always been the cornerstone of international climate change law discourses. They also claimed that negotiation for a market based mechanism should not be continued without a clear commitment from the developed counters for promotion of technical co-operation and transfer of technology relating to the improvement of energy efficiency of ships. Against this backdrop, this article explores the challenges for the developing counters in the implementation of already adopted technical and operational measures.

The human cost of change : tales from the campus about personal change fatigue, resistance, and resilience

For the last decade, one question has haunted me: what helps people to cope with large-scale organisational change in their workplace? This study explores the construct of personal change resilience, and its potential for identifying solutions to the problems of change fatigue and change resistance. The thesis has emerged from the fields of change management, leadership, training, mentoring, evaluation, management and trust within the context of higher education in Australia at the beginning of the twenty-first century. In this thesis I present a theoretical model of the factors to consider in increasing peoples’ personal change resilience as they navigate large-scale organisational change at work, thereby closing a gap in the literature on the construct of change resilience. The model presented is based on both the literature in the realms of business and education, and on the findings of the research. In this thesis, an autoethnographic case study of two Australian university projects is presented as one narrative, resulting in a methodological step forward in the use of multiple research participants’ stories in the development of a single narrative. The findings describe the experiences of workers in higher education and emphasise the importance of considerate management in the achievement of positive experiences of organisational change. This research makes a significant contribution to new knowledge in three ways. First, it closes a gap in the literature in the realm of change management around personal change resilience as a solution to the problem of change fatigue by presenting models of both change failure and personal change resilience. Second, it is methodologically innovative in the use of personae to tell the stories of multiple participants in one coherent tale presented as a work of ethnographic fiction seen through an autoethnographic lens. By doing so, it develops a methodology for giving a voice to those to whom change is done in the workplace. Third, it provides a perspective on organisational change management from the view of the actual workers affected by change, thereby adding to the literature that currently exists, which is based on the views of those with responsibility for leading or managing change rather than those it affects. This thesis is intended as a practical starting point for conversations by actual change managers in higher education, and it is written in such a way as to help them see how theory can be applied in real life, and how empowering and enabling the actual working staff members, and engaging with them in a considerate way before, during and even after the change process, can help to make them resilient enough to cope with the change, rather than leaving them burned out or disengaged and no longer a well-functioning member of the institution. This thesis shows how considerately managed large-scale organisational change can result in positive outcomes for both the organisation and the individuals who work in it.

Making space to learn : leading collaborative classroom design

Design principles for learning spaces for 21st century learning emphasise flexibility and collaboration. Yet it is rare in Australian schools for school leaders to invite students and teachers to collaborate in the design process or to prepare them for the transition into innovative physical learning spaces that are often designed to challenge and change existing learning habits. This article presents a qualitative case study of how one primary school leader led a successful transition for a teacher and her students by inviting them to design their future physical learning space and reconstruct their pedagogic relationships. This article analyses her leadership practices drawing from literature in the learning space, student voice and leadership fields to consider the benefits and challenges experienced by the collaborators when making space to learn.

Leadership Enabling Effective Pedagogic Change in Higher Education

This chapter will consider pedagogic change in Higher Education from the perspective of an Assistant Dean (Teaching and Learning) and one member of their leadership team with particular focus on reflective writing in their courses. The discussion will focus on leadership for the development of teaching capability for reflective writing development and implications for quality assurance of teaching and learning across faculties of a leading comprehensive University. The authors will present and contrast the experiences and challenges of developing teaching approaches for reflective writing across the discipline of teacher education. The chapter will argue a position for the establishment of a framework of distributed leadership that supports effective pedagogical change management generally and with specific reference to reflective writing.

Reframe QUT's evaluation framework : a case study of planning, policy and positioning leading to educational best practice

Every university in Australia has a set of policies that guide the institution in its educational practices, however, the policies are often developed in isolation to each other. Now imagine a space where policies are evidence-based, refined annually, cohesively interrelated, and meet stakeholders’ needs. Is this happenstance or the result of good planning? Culturally, Queensland University of Technology (QUT) is a risk-averse institution that takes pride in its financial solvency and is always keen to know “how are we going?” With a twenty-year history of annual reporting that assures the quality of course performance through multiple lines of evidence, QUT’s Learning and Teaching Unit went one step further and strategically aligned a suite of policies that take into consideration the needs of their stakeholders, collaborate with other areas across the institution and use multiple lines of evidence to inform curriculum decision-making. In QUT’s experience, strategic planning can lead to policy that is designed to meet stakeholders’ needs, not manage them; where decision-making is supported by evidence, not rhetoric; where all feedback is incorporated, not ignored; and where policies are cohesively interrelated, not isolated. While many may call this ‘policy nirvana’, QUT has positioned itself to demonstrate good educational practice through Reframe, its evaluation framework. In this case, best practice was achieved through the application of a theory of change and a design-led logic model that allows for transition to other institutions with different cultural specificity. The evaluation approach follows Seldin’s (2003) notion to offer depth and breadth to the evaluation framework along with Berk’s (2005) concept of multiple lines of evidence. In summary, this paper offers university executives, academics, planning and quality staff an opportunity to understand the critical steps that lead to strategic planning and design of evidence-based educational policy that positions a university for best practice in learning and teaching.

Lead the change series: Q & A with Allan Luke

An overview of current issues in school and system reform.