Messung der Lebensdauer des 0 -Hyperons mit dem NA48-Detektor

Zu den Hauptcharakteristika von Teilchen gehoert - neben der Masse - die Lebensdauer. Die mittlere Lebensdauer des Xi0-Hyperons, die sich aus der mittleren Lebensdauer des Xi--Hyperons ueber die Delta I=1/2-Regel theoretisch voraussagen laesst, wurde bereits mehrfach experimentell bestimmt. Die neueste Messung aus dem Jahr 1977 besitzt jedoch eine relative Unsicherheit von 5%, was sich mit Daten neuerer Experimente deutlich verbessern laesst. Die mittlere Lebensdauer ist ein wichtiger Parameter bei der Bestimmung des Matrixelements Vus der Cabibbo-Kobayashi-Maskawa-Matrix in semileptonischen Xi0-Zerfaellen. Im Jahre 2002 wurde mit dem NA48-Detektor eine Datennahme mit hoher Intensitaet durchgefuehrt, bei der unter anderem etwa 10^9 Xi0-Zerfallskandidaten aufgezeichnet wurden. Davon wurden im Rahmen dieser Arbeit 192000 Ereignisse des Typs "Xi0 nach Lambda pi0" rekonstruiert und 107000 Ereignisse zur Bestimmung der mittleren Lebensdauer durch Vergleich mit simulierten Ereignissen verwendet. Zur Vermeidung von systematischen Fehlern wurde die Lebensdauer in zehn Energieintervallen durch Vergleich von gemessenen und simulierten Daten ermittelt. Das Ergebnis ist wesentlich genauer als bisherige Messungen und weicht vom Literaturwert (tau=(2,90+-0,09)*10^(-10)s) um (+4,99+-0,50(stat)+-0,58(syst))% ab, was 1,7 Standardabweichungen entspricht. Die Lebensdauer ergibt sich zu tau=(3,045+-0,015(stat)+-0,017(syst))*10^(-10)s. Auf die gleiche Weise konnte mit den zur Verfuegung stehenden Daten erstmals die Lebensdauer des Anti-Xi0-Hyperons gemessen werden. Das Ergebnis dieser Messung ist tau=(3,042+-0,045(stat)+-0,017(syst))*10^(-10)s.

Exact computation of the adjacency graph of an arrangement of quadrics

Präsentiert wird ein vollständiger, exakter und effizienter Algorithmus zur Berechnung des Nachbarschaftsgraphen eines Arrangements von Quadriken (Algebraische Flächen vom Grad 2). Dies ist ein wichtiger Schritt auf dem Weg zur Berechnung des vollen 3D Arrangements. Dabei greifen wir auf eine bereits existierende Implementierung zur Berechnung der exakten Parametrisierung der Schnittkurve von zwei Quadriken zurück. Somit ist es möglich, die exakten Parameterwerte der Schnittpunkte zu bestimmen, diese entlang der Kurven zu sortieren und den Nachbarschaftsgraphen zu berechnen. Wir bezeichnen unsere Implementierung als vollständig, da sie auch die Behandlung aller Sonderfälle wie singulärer oder tangentialer Schnittpunkte einschließt. Sie ist exakt, da immer das mathematisch korrekte Ergebnis berechnet wird. Und schließlich bezeichnen wir unsere Implementierung als effizient, da sie im Vergleich mit dem einzigen bisher implementierten Ansatz gut abschneidet. Implementiert wurde unser Ansatz im Rahmen des Projektes EXACUS. Das zentrale Ziel von EXACUS ist es, einen Prototypen eines zuverlässigen und leistungsfähigen CAD Geometriekerns zu entwickeln. Obwohl wir das Design unserer Bibliothek als prototypisch bezeichnen, legen wir dennoch größten Wert auf Vollständigkeit, Exaktheit, Effizienz, Dokumentation und Wiederverwendbarkeit. Über den eigentlich Beitrag zu EXACUS hinaus, hatte der hier vorgestellte Ansatz durch seine besonderen Anforderungen auch wesentlichen Einfluss auf grundlegende Teile von EXACUS. Im Besonderen hat diese Arbeit zur generischen Unterstützung der Zahlentypen und der Verwendung modularer Methoden innerhalb von EXACUS beigetragen. Im Rahmen der derzeitigen Integration von EXACUS in CGAL wurden diese Teile bereits erfolgreich in ausgereifte CGAL Pakete weiterentwickelt.

Aeolian geomorphodynamics in endorheic basins of the Mongolian Gobi Desert

Die vorliegende Arbeit ist im Zuge des DFG Projektes Spätpleistozäne, holozäne und aktuelle Geomorphodynamik in abflusslosen Becken der Mongolischen Gobi´´ entstanden. Das Arbeitsgebiet befindet sich in der südlichen Mongolei im nördlichen Teil der Wüste Gobi. Neben einigen Teilen der Sahara (Heintzenberg, 2009), beispielsweise das Bodélé Becken des nördlichen Tschads (z.B. Washington et al., 2006a; Todd et al., 2006; Warren et al., 2007) wird Zentralasien als ein Hauptliefergebiet für Partikel in die globale Zirkulation der Atmosphäre gesehen (Goudie, 2009). Hauptaugenmerk liegt hierbei besonders auf den abflusslosen Becken und deren Sedimentablagerungen. Die, der Deflation ausgesetzten Flächen der Seebecken, sind hauptsächliche Quelle für Partikel die sich in Form von Staub respektive Sand ausbreiten. Im Hinblick auf geomorphologische Landschaftsentwicklung wurde der Zusammenhang von Beckensedimenten zu Hangdepositionen numerisch simuliert. Ein von Grunert and Lehmkuhl (2004) publiziertes Model, angelehnt an Ideen von Pye (1995) wird damit in Betracht gezogen. Die vorliegenden Untersuchungen modellieren Verbreitungsmechanismen auf regionaler Ebene ausgehend von einer größeren Anzahl an einzelnen punktuellen Standorten. Diese sind repräsentativ für die einzelnen geomorphologischen Systemglieder mit möglicherweise einer Beteiligung am Budget aeolischer Geomorphodynamik. Die Bodenbedeckung durch das charakteristische Steinpflaster der Gobi - Region, sowie unter anderem Korngrößenverteilungen der Oberflächensedimente wurden untersucht. Des Weiteren diente eine zehnjährige Zeitreihe (Jan 1998 bis Dez 2007) meteorologischer Daten als Grundlage zur Analyse der Bedingungen für äolische Geomorphodynamik. Die Daten stammen von 32 staatlichen mongolischen Wetterstationen aus der Region und Teile davon wurden für die Simulationen verwendet. Zusätzlich wurden atmosphärische Messungen zur Untersuchung der atmosphärischen Stabilität und ihrer tageszeitlichen Variabilität mit Mess-Drachenaufstiegen vorgenommen. Die Feldbefunde und auch die Ergebnisse der Laboruntersuchungen sowie der Datensatz meteorologischer Parameter dienten als Eingangsparameter für die Modellierungen. Emissionsraten der einzelnen Standorte und die Partikelverteilung im 3D Windfeld wurden modelliert um die Konvektivität der Beckensedimente und Hangdepositionen zu simulieren. Im Falle hoher mechanischer Turbulenz der bodennahen Luftschicht (mit einhergehender hoher Wind Reibungsgeschwindigkeit), wurde generell eine neutrale Stabilität festgestellt und die Simulationen von Partikelemission sowie deren Ausbreitung und Deposition unter neutraler Stabilitätsbedingung berechnet. Die Berechnung der Partikelemission wurde auf der Grundlage eines sehr vereinfachten missionsmodells in Anlehnung an bestehende Untersuchungen (Laurent et al., 2006; Darmenova et al., 2009; Shao and Dong, 2006; Alfaro, 2008) durchgeführt. Sowohl 3D Windfeldkalkulationen als auch unterschiedliche Ausbreitungsszenarien äolischer Sedimente wurden mit dem kommerziellen Programm LASAT® (Lagrange-Simulation von Aerosol-Transport) realisiert. Diesem liegt ein Langargischer Algorithmus zugrunde, mittels dessen die Verbreitung einzelner Partikel im Windfeld mit statistischer Wahrscheinlichkeit berechnet wird. Über Sedimentationsparameter kann damit ein Ausbreitungsmodell der Beckensedimente in Hinblick auf die Gebirgsfußflächen und -hänge generiert werden. Ein weiterer Teil der Untersuchungen beschäftigt sich mit der geochemischen Zusammensetzung der Oberflächensedimente. Diese Proxy sollte dazu dienen die simulierten Ausbreitungsrichtungen der Partikel aus unterschiedlichen Quellregionen nach zu verfolgen. Im Falle der Mongolischen Gobi zeigte sich eine weitestgehende Homogenität der Minerale und chemischen Elemente in den Sedimenten. Laser Bebohrungen einzelner Sandkörner zeigten nur sehr leichte Unterschiede in Abhängigkeit der Quellregionen. Die Spektren der Minerale und untersuchten Elemente deuten auf graitische Zusammensetzungen hin. Die, im Untersuchungsgebiet weit verbreiteten Alkali-Granite (Jahn et al., 2009) zeigten sich als hauptverantwortlich für die Sedimentproduktion im Untersuchungsgebiet. Neben diesen Mineral- und Elementbestimmungen wurde die Leichtmineralfraktion auf die Charakteristik des Quarzes hin untersucht. Dazu wurden Quarzgehalt, Kristallisation und das Elektronen-Spin-Resonanz Signal des E’1 - Centers in Sauerstoff Fehlstellungen des SiO2 Gitters bestimmt. Die Untersuchungen sind mit dem Methodenvorschlag von Sun et al. (2007) durchgeführt worden und sind prinzipiell gut geeignet um Herkunftsanalysenrndurchzuführen. Eine signifikante Zuordnung der einzelnen Quellgebiete ist jedoch auch in dieser Proxy nicht zu finden gewesen.

MODULARITY BASED FUZZY COMMUNITY DETECTION IN SOCIAL NETWORKS

Fuzzy community detection is to identify fuzzy communities in a network, which are groups of vertices in the network such that the membership of a vertex in one community is in [0,1] and that the sum of memberships of vertices in all communities equals to 1. Fuzzy communities are pervasive in social networks, but only a few works have been done for fuzzy community detection. Recently, a one-step forward extension of Newman’s Modularity, the most popular quality function for disjoint community detection, results into the Generalized Modularity (GM) that demonstrates good performance in finding well-known fuzzy communities. Thus, GMis chosen as the quality function in our research. We first propose a generalized fuzzy t-norm modularity to investigate the effect of different fuzzy intersection operators on fuzzy community detection, since the introduction of a fuzzy intersection operation is made feasible by GM. The experimental results show that the Yager operator with a proper parameter value performs better than the product operator in revealing community structure. Then, we focus on how to find optimal fuzzy communities in a network by directly maximizing GM, which we call it Fuzzy Modularity Maximization (FMM) problem. The effort on FMM problem results into the major contribution of this thesis, an efficient and effective GM-based fuzzy community detection method that could automatically discover a fuzzy partition of a network when it is appropriate, which is much better than fuzzy partitions found by existing fuzzy community detection methods, and a crisp partition of a network when appropriate, which is competitive with partitions resulted from the best disjoint community detections up to now. We address FMM problem by iteratively solving a sub-problem called One-Step Modularity Maximization (OSMM). We present two approaches for solving this iterative procedure: a tree-based global optimizer called Find Best Leaf Node (FBLN) and a heuristic-based local optimizer. The OSMM problem is based on a simplified quadratic knapsack problem that can be solved in linear time; thus, a solution of OSMM can be found in linear time. Since the OSMM algorithm is called within FBLN recursively and the structure of the search tree is non-deterministic, we can see that the FMM/FBLN algorithm runs in a time complexity of at least O (n2). So, we also propose several highly efficient and very effective heuristic algorithms namely FMM/H algorithms. We compared our proposed FMM/H algorithms with two state-of-the-art community detection methods, modified MULTICUT Spectral Fuzzy c-Means (MSFCM) and Genetic Algorithm with a Local Search strategy (GALS), on 10 real-world data sets. The experimental results suggest that the H2 variant of FMM/H is the best performing version. The H2 algorithm is very competitive with GALS in producing maximum modularity partitions and performs much better than MSFCM. On all the 10 data sets, H2 is also 2-3 orders of magnitude faster than GALS. Furthermore, by adopting a simply modified version of the H2 algorithm as a mutation operator, we designed a genetic algorithm for fuzzy community detection, namely GAFCD, where elite selection and early termination are applied. The crossover operator is designed to make GAFCD converge fast and to enhance GAFCD’s ability of jumping out of local minimums. Experimental results on all the data sets show that GAFCD uncovers better community structure than GALS.

Relating in situ gas measurements to the surface outgassing properties of cometary nuclei

The sensitivity of the gas flow field to changes in different initial conditions has been studied for the case of a highly simplified cometary nucleus model. The nucleus model simulated a homogeneously outgassing sphere with a more active ring around an axis of symmetry. The varied initial conditions were the number density of the homogeneous region, the surface temperature, and the composition of the flow (varying amounts of H2O and CO2) from the active ring. The sensitivity analysis was performed using the Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) method. Direct Simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) was used for the flow, thereby allowing strong deviations from local thermal equilibrium. The PCE approach can be used to produce a sensitivity analysis with only four runs per modified input parameter and allows one to study and quantify non-linear responses of measurable parameters to linear changes in the input over a wide range. Hence the PCE allows one to obtain a functional relationship between the flow field properties at every point in the inner coma and the input conditions. It is for example shown that the velocity and the temperature of the background gas are not simply linear functions of the initial number density at the source. As probably expected, the main influence on the resulting flow field parameter is the corresponding initial parameter (i.e. the initial number density determines the background number density, the temperature of the surface determines the flow field temperature, etc.). However, the velocity of the flow field is also influenced by the surface temperature while the number density is not sensitive to the surface temperature at all in our model set-up. Another example is the change in the composition of the flow over the active area. Such changes can be seen in the velocity but again not in the number density. Although this study uses only a simple test case, we suggest that the approach, when applied to a real case in 3D, should assist in identifying the sensitivity of gas parameters measured in situ by, for example, the Rosetta spacecraft to the surface boundary conditions and vice versa.

Comparing CFSR and conventional weather data for discharge and soil loss modelling with SWAT in small catchments in the Ethiopian Highlands

Accurate rainfall data are the key input parameter for modelling river discharge and soil loss. Remote areas of Ethiopia often lack adequate precipitation data and where these data are available, there might be substantial temporal or spatial gaps. To counter this challenge, the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) readily provides weather data for any geographic location on earth between 1979 and 2014. This study assesses the applicability of CFSR weather data to three watersheds in the Blue Nile Basin in Ethiopia. To this end, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was set up to simulate discharge and soil loss, using CFSR and conventional weather data, in three small-scale watersheds ranging from 112 to 477 ha. Calibrated simulation results were compared to observed river discharge and observed soil loss over a period of 32 years. The conventional weather data resulted in very good discharge outputs for all three watersheds, while the CFSR weather data resulted in unsatisfactory discharge outputs for all of the three gauging stations. Soil loss simulation with conventional weather inputs yielded satisfactory outputs for two of three watersheds, while the CFSR weather input resulted in three unsatisfactory results. Overall, the simulations with the conventional data resulted in far better results for discharge and soil loss than simulations with CFSR data. The simulations with CFSR data were unable to adequately represent the specific regional climate for the three watersheds, performing even worse in climatic areas with two rainy seasons. Hence, CFSR data should not be used lightly in remote areas with no conventional weather data where no prior analysis is possible.

Spectrophotometric properties of the nucleus of comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko from the OSIRIS instrument onboard the ROSETTA spacecraft

Context. The Rosetta mission of the European Space Agency has been orbiting the comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko (67P) since August 2014 and is now in its escort phase. A large complement of scientific experiments designed to complete the most detailed study of a comet ever attempted are onboard Rosetta. Aims. We present results for the photometric and spectrophotometric properties of the nucleus of 67P derived from the OSIRIS imaging system, which consists of a Wide Angle Camera (WAC) and a Narrow Angle Camera (NAC). The observations presented here were performed during July and the beginning of August 2014, during the approach phase, when OSIRIS was mapping the surface of the comet with several filters at different phase angles (1.3 degrees-54 degrees). The resolution reached up to 2.1 m/px. Methods. The OSIRIS images were processed with the OSIRIS standard pipeline, then converted into I/F. radiance factors and corrected for the illumination conditions at each pixel using the Lommel-Seeliger disk law. Color cubes of the surface were produced by stacking registered and illumination-corrected images. Furthermore, photometric analysis was performed both on disk-averaged photometry in several filters and on disk-resolved images acquired with the NAC orange filter, centered at 649 ran, using Hapke modeling. Results. The disk-averaged phase function of the nucleus of 67P shows a strong opposition surge with a G parameter value of -0.13 +/- 0.01 in the HG system formalism and an absolute magnitude H-v(1, 1, 0) = 15.74 +/- 0.02 mag. The integrated spectrophotometry in 20 filters covering the 250-1000 nm wavelength range shows a red spectral behavior, without clear absorption bands except for a potential absorption centered at similar to 290 rim that is possibly due to SO2 ice. The nucleus shows strong phase reddening, with disk-averaged spectral slopes increasing from 11%/( 100 nm) to 16%/(100 nm) in the 1.3 degrees-54 degrees phase angle range. The geometric albedo of the comet is 6.5 +/- 0.2% at 649 nm, with local variations of up to similar to 16% in the Hapi region. From the disk-resolved images we computed the spectral slope together with local spectrophotometry and identified three distinct groups of regions (blue, moderately red, and red). The Hapi region is the brightest, the bluest in term of spectral slope, and the most active surface on the comet. Local spectrophotometry shows an enhancement of the flux in the 700-750 nm that is associated with coma emissions.

Unemployment Insurance Generosity: A Trans-Atlantic Comparison

The goal of this paper is to establish if unemployment insurance policies are more generous in Europe than in the United States, and by how much. We take the examples of France and one particular American state, Ohio, and use the methodology of Pallage, Scruggs and Zimmermann (2008) to find a unique parameter value for each region that fully characterizes the generosity of the system. These two values can then be used in structural models that compare the regions, for example to explain the differences in unemployment rates.

Deep drilling of glaciers: Russian projects in the Arctic (1975-1995)

The data collection "Deep Drilling of Glaciers: Soviet-Russian projects in Arctic, 1975-1995" was collected by the following basic considerations: - compilation of deep (>100 m) drilling projects on Arctic glaciers, using data of (a) publications; (b) archives of IGRAN; (c) personal communication of project participants; - documentation of parameters, references. Accuracy of data and techniques applied to determine different parameters are not evaluated. The accuracy of some geochemical parameters (up to 1984 and heavy metalls) is uncertain. Most reconstructions of ice core age and of annual layer thickness are discussed; - digitizing of published diagrams (in case, when original numerical data were lost) and subsequent data conversion to equal range series and adjustment to the common units. Therefore, the equal-range series were calculated from original data or converted from digitized chart values as indicated in the metadata. For the methodological purpose, the equal-range series obtained from original and reconstructed data were compared repeatedly; the systematic difference was less then 5-7%. Special attention should be given to the fact, that the data for individual ice core parameters varies, because some parameters were originally measured or registered. Parameters were converted in equal-range series using 2 m steps; - two or more parameter values were determined, then the mean-weighted (i.e. accounting the sample length) value is assigned to the entire interval; - one parameter value was determined, measured or registered independently from the parameter values in depth intervals which over- and underlie it, then the value is assigned to the entire interval; - one parameter value was determined, measured or registered for two adjoining depth intervals, then the specific value is assigned to the depth interval, which represents >75% of sample length ; if each of adjoining depth intervals represents <75% of sample length, then the correspondent parameter value is assigned to both intervals of depth. This collection of ice core data (version 2000) was made available through the EU funded QUEEN project by S.M. Arkhipov, Moscow.

Análisis experimental de las transmisiones indirectas en particiones de doble hoja de fábrica de ladrillo, propuesta de métodos de cuantificación para la mejora del aislamiento acústico

Esta investigación aborda el estudio de la influencia de las uniones en el aislamiento acústico a ruido aéreo en los edificios y el análisis de las transmisiones indirectas producidas en particiones de dos hojas de ladrillo cerámico sobre bandas elásticas. La transmisión de ruido entre dos recintos separados por una partición se produce por dos vías: La vía directa a través del elemento que separa los dos recintos y la vía indirecta, a través de los elementos de flanco, como forjados, particiones, fachadas, etc. que conectados a dicho elemento de separación, vibran en presencia del campo acústico transmitiendo sus vibraciones al recinto receptor. Si las transmisiones indirectas son dominantes, el aislamiento acústico “in situ” puede ser menor que el esperado. El parámetro que expresa la atenuación acústica en las uniones es el índice de reducción vibracional en la unión o Kij. Éste parámetro se utiliza en los métodos de cálculo del aislamiento acústico a ruido aéreo, que permiten la justificación del cumplimiento de la normativa actual, el Documento Básico DB HR Protección frente al ruido del CTE. La determinación de los índices Kij de las uniones es una cuestión que debe abordarse de forma experimental. Existen diferentes expresiones empíricas obtenidas en varios laboratorios europeos que permiten el cálculo del índice Kij, pero no se han validado con ensayos realizados en soluciones habituales en la construcción española, como las estudiadas en este trabajo. El objetivo de este trabajo es la medida, análisis y cuantificación de las transmisiones indirectas producidas en las uniones de elementos de dos hojas de fábrica de ladrillo cerámico. Se ha recurrido a una campaña de ensayos en la que se reproducían las condiciones de un edificio real y se ha medido el aislamiento acústico a ruido aéreo y los índices Kij de diferentes configuraciones de uniones. Del análisis de los resultados, se demuestra que el aislamiento acústico a ruido aéreo depende de las uniones, pudiéndose obtener mejoras significativas al variar la forma de unión entre los elementos constructivos. Las mejoras de aislamiento acústico están relacionadas con un buen diseño de las uniones y con valores elevados del índice Kij. Este trabajo aporta valores experimentales de Kij para soluciones de fábrica de ladrillo y pone en discusión los valores teóricos que actualmente aparecen en la normativa vigente. ABSTRACT This research work deals with the effects of junction construction details on airborne sound insulation in buildings and the analysis of flanking transmissions across double ceramic brick walls with elastic interlayers. The sound transmission between two adjacent rooms comprises two paths: the direct path, caused by the incident sound on a separating wall, and the indirect path, through flanking elements connected to the separating wall, such as floors, internal walls, ceilings, etc. Flanking elements vibrate when excited in the sound field, thus transferring sound via structure borne to the receiving room. Dominant flanking transmissions can decrease the field sound insulation performance of the building. The vibration reduction index, Kij. expresses the acoustic attenuation of construction joints. This is an input parameter in the calculation models designed to estimate the airborne sound insulation between adjoining rooms in buildings. These models are used to comply with the acoustic requirements set by Basic Document DB HR Protection against noise included in the Spanish Building Code. The characterization of Kij. must be addressed experimentally by means of measurements. The available empirical Kij. formulae were developed in different European laboratories, but they have not been validated with standard tests performed on common Spanish walls, such as those studied in this work. The aim of this work is the measurement, analysis and quantification of indirect transmissions though joints of double ceramic brick walls. Airborne sound insulation tests and Kij measurements were performed in a laboratory which emulated the conditions of a real building. These tests were performed in different partitions whose joints were modified. It follows from the analysis of the results that airborne sound insulation depends strongly on the design of joints. Sound insulation improves when the joints between construction elements are modified to eliminate acoustic bridges. The increase in sound insulation corresponds to best practice design of joints and to high Kij values. This research work provides experimental Kij data of double ceramic brick walls and the results put in discussion the theoretical values set in the current Standards.

The cost of uniqueness in groundwater model calibration

Calibration of a groundwater model requires that hydraulic properties be estimated throughout a model domain. This generally constitutes an underdetermined inverse problem, for which a Solution can only be found when some kind of regularization device is included in the inversion process. Inclusion of regularization in the calibration process can be implicit, for example through the use of zones of constant parameter value, or explicit, for example through solution of a constrained minimization problem in which parameters are made to respect preferred values, or preferred relationships, to the degree necessary for a unique solution to be obtained. The cost of uniqueness is this: no matter which regularization methodology is employed, the inevitable consequence of its use is a loss of detail in the calibrated field. This, ill turn, can lead to erroneous predictions made by a model that is ostensibly well calibrated. Information made available as a by-product of the regularized inversion process allows the reasons for this loss of detail to be better understood. In particular, it is easily demonstrated that the estimated value for an hydraulic property at any point within a model domain is, in fact, a weighted average of the true hydraulic property over a much larger area. This averaging process causes loss of resolution in the estimated field. Where hydraulic conductivity is the hydraulic property being estimated, high averaging weights exist in areas that are strategically disposed with respect to measurement wells, while other areas may contribute very little to the estimated hydraulic conductivity at any point within the model domain, this possibly making the detection of hydraulic conductivity anomalies in these latter areas almost impossible. A study of the post-calibration parameter field covariance matrix allows further insights into the loss of system detail incurred through the calibration process to be gained. A comparison of pre- and post-calibration parameter covariance matrices shows that the latter often possess a much smaller spectral bandwidth than the former. It is also demonstrated that, as all inevitable consequence of the fact that a calibrated model cannot replicate every detail of the true system, model-to-measurement residuals can show a high degree of spatial correlation, a fact which must be taken into account when assessing these residuals either qualitatively, or quantitatively in the exploration of model predictive uncertainty. These principles are demonstrated using a synthetic case in which spatial parameter definition is based oil pilot points, and calibration is Implemented using both zones of piecewise constancy and constrained minimization regularization. (C) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An empirical study of Hoelfding Racing for model selction in K-nearest neighbor classification

Racing algorithms have recently been proposed as a general-purpose method for performing model selection in machine teaming algorithms. In this paper, we present an empirical study of the Hoeffding racing algorithm for selecting the k parameter in a simple k-nearest neighbor classifier. Fifteen widely-used classification datasets from UCI are used and experiments conducted across different confidence levels for racing. The results reveal a significant amount of sensitivity of the k-nn classifier to its model parameter value. The Hoeffding racing algorithm also varies widely in its performance, in terms of the computational savings gained over an exhaustive evaluation. While in some cases the savings gained are quite small, the racing algorithm proved to be highly robust to the possibility of erroneously eliminating the optimal models. All results were strongly dependent on the datasets used.

Web based expert elicitation of uncertainties in environmental model inputs

When constructing and using environmental models, it is typical that many of the inputs to the models will not be known perfectly. In some cases, it will be possible to make observations, or occasionally physics-based uncertainty propagation, to ascertain the uncertainty on these inputs. However, such observations are often either not available or even possible, and another approach to characterising the uncertainty on the inputs must be sought. Even when observations are available, if the analysis is being carried out within a Bayesian framework then prior distributions will have to be specified. One option for gathering or at least estimating this information is to employ expert elicitation. Expert elicitation is well studied within statistics and psychology and involves the assessment of the beliefs of a group of experts about an uncertain quantity, (for example an input / parameter within a model), typically in terms of obtaining a probability distribution. One of the challenges in expert elicitation is to minimise the biases that might enter into the judgements made by the individual experts, and then to come to a consensus decision within the group of experts. Effort is made in the elicitation exercise to prevent biases clouding the judgements through well-devised questioning schemes. It is also important that, when reaching a consensus, the experts are exposed to the knowledge of the others in the group. Within the FP7 UncertWeb project (http://www.uncertweb.org/), there is a requirement to build a Webbased tool for expert elicitation. In this paper, we discuss some of the issues of building a Web-based elicitation system - both the technological aspects and the statistical and scientific issues. In particular, we demonstrate two tools: a Web-based system for the elicitation of continuous random variables and a system designed to elicit uncertainty about categorical random variables in the setting of landcover classification uncertainty. The first of these examples is a generic tool developed to elicit uncertainty about univariate continuous random variables. It is designed to be used within an application context and extends the existing SHELF method, adding a web interface and access to metadata. The tool is developed so that it can be readily integrated with environmental models exposed as web services. The second example was developed for the TREES-3 initiative which monitors tropical landcover change through ground-truthing at confluence points. It allows experts to validate the accuracy of automated landcover classifications using site-specific imagery and local knowledge. Experts may provide uncertainty information at various levels: from a general rating of their confidence in a site validation to a numerical ranking of the possible landcover types within a segment. A key challenge in the web based setting is the design of the user interface and the method of interacting between the problem owner and the problem experts. We show the workflow of the elicitation tool, and show how we can represent the final elicited distributions and confusion matrices using UncertML, ready for integration into uncertainty enabled workflows.We also show how the metadata associated with the elicitation exercise is captured and can be referenced from the elicited result, providing crucial lineage information and thus traceability in the decision making process.

Experimental data from column and batch samples

The presented thesis was written in the frame of a project called 'seepage water prognosis'. It was funded by the Federal Ministry for Education and Science (BMBF). 41 German institutions among them research institutes of universities, public authorities and engineering companies were financed for three years respectively. The aim was to work out the scientific basis that is needed to carry out a seepage water prognosis (Oberacker und Eberle, 2002). According to the Federal German Soil Protection Act (Federal Bulletin, 1998) a seepage water prognosis is required in order to avoid future soil impacts from the application of recycling products. The participants focused on the development of either methods to determine the source strength of the materials investigated, which is defined as the total mass flow caused by natural leaching or on models to predict the contaminants transport through the underlying soil. Annual meetings of all participants as well as separate meetings of the two subprojects were held. The department of Geosciences in Bremen participated with two subprojects. The aim of the subproject that resulted in this thesis was the development of easily applicable, valid, and generally accepted laboratory methods for the determination of the source strength. In the scope of the second subproject my colleague Veith Becker developed a computer model for the transport prognosis with the source strength as the main input parameter.

Parametric CAD model based shape optimization using adjoint functions

Adjoint methods have proven to be an efficient way of calculating the gradient of an objective function with respect to a shape parameter for optimisation, with a computational cost nearly independent of the number of the design variables [1]. The approach in this paper links the adjoint surface sensitivities (gradient of objective function with respect to the surface movement) with the parametric design velocities (movement of the surface due to a CAD parameter perturbation) in order to compute the gradient of the objective function with respect to CAD variables.
For a successful implementation of shape optimization strategies in practical industrial cases, the choice of design variables or parameterisation scheme used for the model to be optimized plays a vital role. Where the goal is to base the optimization on a CAD model the choices are to use a NURBS geometry generated from CAD modelling software, where the position of the NURBS control points are the optimisation variables [2] or to use the feature based CAD model with all of the construction history to preserve the design intent [3]. The main advantage of using the feature based model is that the optimized model produced can be directly used for the downstream applications including manufacturing and process planning.
This paper presents an approach for optimization based on the feature based CAD model, which uses CAD parameters defining the features in the model geometry as the design variables. In order to capture the CAD surface movement with respect to the change in design variable, the “Parametric Design Velocity” is calculated, which is defined as the movement of the CAD model boundary in the normal direction due to a change in the parameter value.
The approach presented here for calculating the design velocities represents an advancement in terms of capability and robustness of that described by Robinson et al. [3]. The process can be easily integrated to most industrial optimisation workflows and is immune to the topology and labelling issues highlighted by other CAD based optimisation processes. It considers every continuous (“real value”) parameter type as an optimisation variable, and it can be adapted to work with any CAD modelling software, as long as it has an API which provides access to the values of the parameters which control the model shape and allows the model geometry to be exported. To calculate the movement of the boundary the methodology employs finite differences on the shape of the 3D CAD models before and after the parameter perturbation. The implementation procedure includes calculating the geometrical movement along a normal direction between two discrete representations of the original and perturbed geometry respectively. Parametric design velocities can then be directly linked with adjoint surface sensitivities to extract the gradients to use in a gradient-based optimization algorithm.
The optimisation of a flow optimisation problem is presented, in which the power dissipation of the flow in an automotive air duct is to be reduced by changing the parameters of the CAD geometry created in CATIA V5. The flow sensitivities are computed with the continuous adjoint method for a laminar and turbulent flow [4] and are combined with the parametric design velocities to compute the cost function gradients. A line-search algorithm is then used to update the design variables and proceed further with optimisation process.