Poisson, Poisson-gamma and zero-inflated regression models of motor vehicle crashes: balancing statistical fit and theory

There has been considerable research conducted over the last 20 years focused on predicting motor vehicle crashes on transportation facilities. The range of statistical models commonly applied includes binomial, Poisson, Poisson-gamma (or negative binomial), zero-inflated Poisson and negative binomial models (ZIP and ZINB), and multinomial probability models. Given the range of possible modeling approaches and the host of assumptions with each modeling approach, making an intelligent choice for modeling motor vehicle crash data is difficult. There is little discussion in the literature comparing different statistical modeling approaches, identifying which statistical models are most appropriate for modeling crash data, and providing a strong justification from basic crash principles. In the recent literature, it has been suggested that the motor vehicle crash process can successfully be modeled by assuming a dual-state data-generating process, which implies that entities (e.g., intersections, road segments, pedestrian crossings, etc.) exist in one of two states—perfectly safe and unsafe. As a result, the ZIP and ZINB are two models that have been applied to account for the preponderance of “excess” zeros frequently observed in crash count data. The objective of this study is to provide defensible guidance on how to appropriate model crash data. We first examine the motor vehicle crash process using theoretical principles and a basic understanding of the crash process. It is shown that the fundamental crash process follows a Bernoulli trial with unequal probability of independent events, also known as Poisson trials. We examine the evolution of statistical models as they apply to the motor vehicle crash process, and indicate how well they statistically approximate the crash process. We also present the theory behind dual-state process count models, and note why they have become popular for modeling crash data. A simulation experiment is then conducted to demonstrate how crash data give rise to “excess” zeros frequently observed in crash data. It is shown that the Poisson and other mixed probabilistic structures are approximations assumed for modeling the motor vehicle crash process. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that under certain (fairly common) circumstances excess zeros are observed—and that these circumstances arise from low exposure and/or inappropriate selection of time/space scales and not an underlying dual state process. In conclusion, carefully selecting the time/space scales for analysis, including an improved set of explanatory variables and/or unobserved heterogeneity effects in count regression models, or applying small-area statistical methods (observations with low exposure) represent the most defensible modeling approaches for datasets with a preponderance of zeros

Cytokine synthesis by intestinal intraepithelial lymphocytes. Both gamma/delta T cell receptor-positive and alpha/beta T cell receptor-positive T cells in the G1 phase of cell cycle produce IFN-gamma and IL-5

Murine intestinal intraepithelial lymphocytes (IEL) have been shown to contain subsets of alpha/beta TCR+ and gamma/delta TCR+ T cells that spontaneously produce cytokines such as IFN-gamma and IL-5. We have now determined the nature and cell cycle stage of these cytokine-producing T lymphocytes in EIL by using IFN-gamma- and IL-5-specific ELISPOT assay, cytokine-specific mRNA-cDNA dot-blot hybridization and polymerase chain reaction, and flow cytometry (FACS) for DNA analysis. When CD3+ T cells from IEL of normal C3H/HeN mice were separated into low and high density fractions by discontinuous Percoll gradients, IFN-gamma and IL-5 spot-forming cells were only found in the former population. Analysis of mRNA for these cytokines by both IFN-gamma- and IL-5-specific dot-blot hybridization and polymerase chain reaction revealed that higher levels of message for IFN-gamma and IL-5 were also seen in the low density fraction. However, cell cycle analysis of these two fractions by FACS using propidium iodide showed a similar pattern of cell cycle stages in both low and high density populations (G0 + G1 approximately 96 to 98% and S/G2 + M approximately 2 to 4%). Finally, mRNA from gamma/delta TCR+ and alpha/beta TCR+ T cells in both low and high density fractions of IEL were analyzed for IFN-gamma and IL-5 message by polymerase chain reaction. After 35 cycles of amplification, both gamma/delta TCR+ and alpha/beta TCR+ T cells in the low density fraction expressed higher levels of message for these two cytokines when compared with the high density population. These results have now shown that both gamma/delta and alpha/beta TCR+ IEL can be separated into low and high density subsets and both fractions possess a similar stage of cell cycle. However, only the low density cells (in G1 phase) of both gamma/delta and alpha/beta TCR types possess increased cytokine-specific mRNA and produce the cytokines IFN-gamma and IL-5. Our results suggest that alpha/beta TCR+ and gamma/delta TCR+ IEL can produce cytokines without cell proliferation.

Molecular characterisation and expression analysis of interferon gamma in response to natural chlamydia infection in the koala, phascolarctos cinereus

Interferon gamma (IFNγ) is a key Th1 cytokine, with a principal role in the immune response against intracellular organisms such as Chlamydia. Along with being responsible for significant morbidity in human populations, Chlamydia is also responsible for wide spread infection and disease in many animal hosts, with reports that many Australian koala subpopulations are endemically infected. An understanding of the role played by IFNγ in koala chlamydial diseases is important for the establishment of better prophylactic and therapeutic approaches against chlamydial infection in this host. A limited number of IFNγ sequences have been published from marsupials and no immune reagents to measure expression have been developed. Through preliminary analysis of the koala transcriptome, we have identified the full coding sequence of the koala IFNγ gene. Transcripts were identified in spleen and lymph node tissue samples. Phylogenetic analysis demonstrated that koala IFNγ is closely related to other marsupial IFNγ sequences and more distantly related to eutherian mammals. To begin to characterise the role of this important cytokine in the koala's response to chlamydial infection, we developed a quantitative real time PCR assay and applied it to a small cohort of koalas with and without active chlamydial disease, revealing significant differences in expression patterns between the groups. Description of the IFNγ sequence from the koala will not only assist in understanding this species' response to its most important pathogen but will also provide further insight into the evolution of the marsupial immune system

Investigation of Gamma-aminobutyric acid (GABA) A receptors genes and migraine susceptibility

Background Migraine is a neurological disorder characterized by recurrent attacks of severe headache, affecting around 12% of Caucasian populations. It is well known that migraine has a strong genetic component, although the number and type of genes involved is still unclear. Prior linkage studies have reported mapping of a migraine gene to chromosome Xq 24–28, a region containing a cluster of genes for GABA A receptors (GABRE, GABRA3, GABRQ), which are potential candidate genes for migraine. The GABA neurotransmitter has been implicated in migraine pathophysiology previously; however its exact role has not yet been established, although GABA receptors agonists have been the target of therapeutic developments. The aim of the present research is to investigate the role of the potential candidate genes reported on chromosome Xq 24–28 region in migraine susceptibility. In this study, we have focused on the subunit GABA A receptors type ε (GABRE) and type θ (GABRQ) genes and their involvement in migraine. Methods We have performed an association analysis in a large population of case-controls (275 unrelated Caucasian migraineurs versus 275 controls) examining a set of 3 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the coding region (exons 3, 5 and 9) of the GABRE gene and also the I478F coding variant of the GABRQ gene. Results Our study did not show any association between the examined SNPs in our test population (P > 0.05). Conclusion Although these particular GABA receptor genes did not show positive association, further studies are necessary to consider the role of other GABA receptor genes in migraine susceptibility.

Generalised gamma bidding model

A generalised gamma bidding model is presented, which incorporates many previous models. The log likelihood equations are provided. Using a new method of testing, variants of the model are fitted to some real data for construction contract auctions to find the best fitting models for groupings of bidders. The results are examined for simplifying assumptions, including all those in the main literature. These indicate no one model to be best for all datasets. However, some models do appear to perform significantly better than others and it is suggested that future research would benefit from a closer examination of these.

Development and characterization of a novel, antimicrobial, sterile hydrogel dressing for burn wounds : single-step production with gamma irradiation creates silver nanoparticles and radical polymerization

Patients with burn wounds are susceptible to wound infection and sepsis. This research introduces a novel burn wound dressing that contains silver nanoparticles (SNPs) to treat infection in a 2-acrylamido-2-methylpropane sulfonic acid sodium salt (AMPS-Na(+) ) hydrogel. Silver nitrate was dissolved in AMPS-Na(+) solution and then exposed to gamma irradiation to form SNP-infused hydrogels. The gamma irradiation results in a cross-linked polymeric network of sterile hydrogel dressing and a reduction of silver ions to form SNPs infused in the hydrogel in a one-step process. About 80% of the total silver was released from the hydrogels after 72 h immersion in simulated body fluid solution; therefore, they could be used on wounds for up to 3 days. All the hydrogels were found to be nontoxic to normal human dermal fibroblast cells. The silver-loaded hydrogels had good inhibitory action against Pseudomonas aeruginosa and methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus. Results from a pilot study on a porcine burn model showed that the 5-mM silver hydrogel was efficient at preventing bacterial colonization of wounds, and the results were comparable to the commercially available silver dressings (Acticoat(TM) , PolyMem Silver(®) ). These results support its use as a potential burn wound dressing.

Effect of tocopherol on atherosclerosis, vascular function and inflammation in Apolipoprotein E knockout mice with subtotal nephrectomy

Background/Aims: Inflammation and endothelial dysfunction contribute to cardiovascular disease, prevalent in chronic kidney disease (CKD). Antioxidant supplements such as tocopherols may reduce inflammation and atherosclerosis. This study aimed to investigate the effect of tocopherol supplementation on vascular function, aortic plaque formation, and inflammation in apolipoprotein E−/− mice with 5/6 nephrectomy as a model of combined cardiovascular and kidney disease. Methods: Nephrectomized mice were assigned to a normal chow diet group (normal chow), a group receiving 1000 mg/kg diet of α-tocopherol supplementation or a group receiving 1000 mg/kg diet mixed-tocopherol (60% γ-tocopherol). Results: Following 12 weeks, in vitro aortic endothelial-independent relaxation was enhanced with both α-tocopherol and mixed-tocopherol (P < 0.05), while mixed-tocopherol enhanced aortic contraction at noradrenaline concentrations of 3 × 10−7 M to 3 × 10−5 M (P < 0.05), when compared to normal chow. Supplementation with α- and mixed-tocopherol reduced systemic concentrations of IL-6 (P < 0.001 and P < 0.001, respectively) and IL-10 (P < 0.05 and P < 0.001, respectively), while α-tocopherol also reduced MCP-1 (P < 0.05) and tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α (P < 0.05). Aortic sinus plaque area was significantly reduced with α-tocopherol supplementation when compared to normal chow (P < 0.01). Conclusion: Tocopherol supplementation favorably influenced vascular function and cytokine profile, while it was also effective in reducing atherosclerosis in the apolipoprotein E−/− mouse with CKD.