CAUSAL INFERENCE WITH A CONTINUOUS TREATMENT AND OUTCOME: ALTERNATIVE ESTIMATORS FOR PARAMETRIC DOSE-RESPONSE FUNCTIONS WITH APPLICATIONS.

Causal inference with a continuous treatment is a relatively under-explored problem. In this dissertation, we adopt the potential outcomes framework. Potential outcomes are responses that would be seen for a unit under all possible treatments. In an observational study where the treatment is continuous, the potential outcomes are an uncountably infinite set indexed by treatment dose. We parameterize this unobservable set as a linear combination of a finite number of basis functions whose coefficients vary across units. This leads to new techniques for estimating the population average dose-response function (ADRF). Some techniques require a model for the treatment assignment given covariates, some require a model for predicting the potential outcomes from covariates, and some require both. We develop these techniques using a framework of estimating functions, compare them to existing methods for continuous treatments, and simulate their performance in a population where the ADRF is linear and the models for the treatment and/or outcomes may be misspecified. We also extend the comparisons to a data set of lottery winners in Massachusetts. Next, we describe the methods and functions in the R package causaldrf using data from the National Medical Expenditure Survey (NMES) and Infant Health and Development Program (IHDP) as examples. Additionally, we analyze the National Growth and Health Study (NGHS) data set and deal with the issue of missing data. Lastly, we discuss future research goals and possible extensions.

Routines in a European aquaculture company and the development of a Flavobacterium psychrophilum dose response pre-model in adult Rainbow Trout

An internship in a European company dealing with aquaculture and biotechnology - AquaBioTech Group, Malta - was undertaken to complete the Master Degree of Science in Aquaculture of the School of Tourism and Maritime Technology of the Polytechnic Institute of Leiria. Biotechnology and aquaculture are two areas that have been synergistically used to contribute for the progress and improvement of fish production. The AquaBioTech Group is an example of a company able to integrate these areas to maximizing their services. Located in Mosta (Malta) the company operates in a sustainable way using Recirculation Aquaculture Systems (RAS) to maintain aquaculture species. In collaboration with several companies and institutions, the AquaBioTech Group is involved and supports the development of important international research projects. The present report focuses on two important parts of the internship performed during 6 months. Initially, it will cover the operation and constitution of the company, describing the routines and techniques acquired. Then, it will describe a pathology trial that forms the practical and scientific component of this report. Despite the limitation to describe some confidential assays, this trial consisted in the infection of Rainbow Trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) with the bacterium Flavobacterium psychrophilum in order to evaluate the mortality rates over time. The internship served to solidify theoretical knowledge acquired during the academic training, develop professional skills and provide an understanding of jobs available on the market.

Environmental Risk Factors for Parkinson's Disease

Parkinson’s disease (PD) is a progressive, degenerative, neurological disease. The progressive disability associated with PD results in substantial burdens for those with the condition, their families and society in terms of increased health resource use, earnings loss of affected individuals and family caregivers, poorer quality of life, caregiver burden, disrupted family relationships, decreased social and leisure activities, and deteriorating emotional well-being. Currently, no cure is available and the efficacy of available treatments, such as medication and surgical interventions, decreases with longer duration of the disease. Whilst the cause of PD is unknown, genetic and environmental factors are believed to contribute to its aetiology. Descriptive and analytical epidemiological studies have been conducted in a number of countries in an effort to elucidate the cause, or causes, of PD. Rural residency, farming, well water consumption, pesticide exposure, metals and solvents have been implicated as potential risk factors for PD in some previous epidemiological studies. However, there is substantial disagreement between the results of existing studies. Therefore, the role of environmental exposures in the aetiology of PD remains unclear. The main component of this thesis consists of a case-control study that assessed the contribution of environmental exposures to the risk of developing PD. An existing, previously unanalysed, dataset from a local case-control study was analysed to inform the design of the new case-control study. The analysis results suggested that regular exposure to pesticides and head injury were important risk factors for PD. However, due to the substantial limitations of this existing study, further confirmation of these results was desirable with a more robustly designed epidemiological study. A new exposure measurement instrument (a structured interviewer-delivered questionnaire) was developed for the new case-control study to obtain data on demographic, lifestyle, environmental and medical factors. Prior to its use in the case-control study, the questionnaire was assessed for test-retest repeatability in a series of 32 PD cases and 29 healthy sex-, age- and residential suburb-matched electoral roll controls. High repeatability was demonstrated for lifestyle exposures, such as smoking and coffee/tea consumption (kappas 0.70-1.00). The majority of environmental exposures, including use of pesticides, solvents and exposure to metal dusts and fumes, also showed high repeatability (kappas >0.78). A consecutive series of 163 PD case participants was recruited from a neurology clinic in Brisbane. One hundred and fifty-one (151) control participants were randomly selected from the Australian Commonwealth Electoral Roll and individually matched to the PD cases on age (± 2 years), sex and current residential suburb. Participants ranged in age from 40-89 years (mean age 67 years). Exposure data were collected in face-to-face interviews. Odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals were calculated using conditional logistic regression for matched sets in SAS version 9.1. Consistent with previous studies, ever having been a regular smoker or coffee drinker was inversely associated with PD with dose-response relationships evident for packyears smoked and number of cups of coffee drunk per day. Passive smoking from ever having lived with a smoker or worked in a smoky workplace was also inversely related to PD. Ever having been a regular tea drinker was associated with decreased odds of PD. Hobby gardening was inversely associated with PD. However, use of fungicides in the home garden or occupationally was associated with increased odds of PD. Exposure to welding fumes, cleaning solvents, or thinners occupationally was associated with increased odds of PD. Ever having resided in a rural or remote area was inversely associated with PD. Ever having resided on a farm was only associated with moderately increased odds of PD. Whilst the current study’s results suggest that environmental exposures on their own are only modest contributors to overall PD risk, the possibility that interaction with genetic factors may additively or synergistically increase risk should be considered. The results of this research support the theory that PD has a multifactorial aetiology and that environmental exposures are some of a number of factors to contribute to PD risk. There was also evidence of interaction between some factors (eg smoking and welding) to moderate PD risk.

Coronary events and exposure to environmental tobacco smoke: a case-control study from Australia and New Zealand

Objectives-To estimate the relative risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) associated with exposure to environmental tobacco smoke (ETS). Design-Population-based case-control study. Subjects-Cases were 953 people identified in a population register of coronary events, and controls were 3189 participants in independent community-based risk factor prevalence surveys from the same study populations. Setting-Newcastle, Australia and Auckland, New Zealand. Main outcome measures-Acute myocardial infarction or coronary death. Results-After adjusting for the effects of age, education, history of heart disease, and body mass index, women had a statistically significant increased risk of a coronary event associated with exposure to ETS (relative risk (RR) = 1.99; 95% confidence interval (CI)= 1.40-2.81). There was little statistical evidence of increased risk found in men (RR = 1.02, 95% CI = 0.81-1.28). Conclusion-Our study found evidence for the adverse effects of exposure to ETS on risk of coronary heart disease among women, especially at home. For men the issue is unclear according to the data from our study. Additional studies with detailed information on possible confounders and adequate statistical power are needed. Most importantly, they should use methods for measuring exposure to ETS that are sufficiently accurate to permit the investigation of dose-response relationships.

A review of health effects of aircraft noise

Social surveys have established dose-response relationships between aircraft noise and annoyance, with a number of psychological symptoms being positively related to annoyance. Evidence that exposure to aircraft noise is associated with higher psychiatric hospital admission rates is mixed. Some evidence exists of an association between aircraft noise exposure and use of psychotropic medications. People with a pre-existing psychological or psychiatric condition may be more susceptible to the effects of exposure to aircraft noise. Aircraft noise can produce effects on electroencephalogram sleep patterns and cause wakefulness and difficulty in sleeping. Attendances at general practitioners, self-reported health problems and use of medications, have been associated with exposure to aircraft noise, but some findings are inconsistent. Some association between aircraft noise exposure and elevated mean blood pressure has been observed in cross-sectional studies of schoolchildren, but with little confirmation from cohort studies. There is no convincing evidence to suggest that all-cause or cause-specific mortality is increased by exposure to aircraft noise. There is no strong evidence that aircraft noise has significant perinatal effects. Using the World Health Organization definition of health, which includes positive mental and social wellbeing, aircraft noise is responsible for considerable ill-health. However, population-based studies have not found strong evidence that people living near or under aircraft flight paths suffer higher rates of clinical morbidity or mortality as a consequence of exposure to aircraft noise. A dearth of high quality studies in this area precludes drawing substantive conclusions.

SUBTYPING SOCIAL ANXIETY DISORDER IN DEVELOPED AND DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

SAD and numerous outcomes (age-of-onset, persistence, severity, comorbidity, treatment) were examined. Additional analyses examined associations with number of performance fears Versus number of interactional fears. Results: Lifetime social fears are quite common in both developed (15.9%) and developing (14.3%) countries, but lifetime SAD is much more common in the former (6.1%) than latter (2.1%) countries. Among those with SAD, persistence, severity, comorbidity, and treatment have dose response relationships with number of social fears, with no clear nonlinearity in relationships that would support a distinction between generalized and non-generalized SAD. The distinction between performance fears and interactional fears is generally not important in predicting these same outcomes. Conclusion: No evidence is found to support subtyping SAD on the basis of either number of social fears or number of performance fears versus number of interactional fears. Depression and Anxiety 27:390-403, 2010. (C) 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Acute alcohol consumption and injury: risk associations and attributable fractions for different injury mechanisms.

OBJECTIVE: Most studies on alcohol as a risk factor for injuries have been mechanism specific, and few have considered several mechanisms simultaneously or reported alcohol-attributable fractions (AAFs)-which was the aim of the current study. METHOD: Data from 3,592 injured and 3,489 noninjured patients collected between January 2003 and June 2004 in the surgical ward of the emergency department of the Lausanne University Hospital (Switzerland) were analyzed. Four injury mechanisms derived from the International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision, were considered: transportation-related injuries, falls, exposure to forces and other events, and interpersonal violence. Multinomial logistic regression models were calculated to estimate the risk relationships of different levels of alcohol consumption, using noninjured patients as quasi-controls. The AAFs were then calculated. RESULTS: Risk relationships between injury and acute consumption were found across all mechanisms, commonly resulting in dose-response relationships. Marked differences between mechanisms were observed for relative risks and AAFs, which varied between 15.2% and 33.1% and between 10.1% and 35.9%, depending on the time window of consumption (either 6 hours or 24 hours before injury, respectively). Low and medium levels of alcohol consumption generally were associated with the most AAFs. CONCLUSIONS: This study underscores the implications of even low levels of alcohol consumption on the risk of sustaining injuries through any of the mechanisms considered. Substantial AAFs are reported for each mechanism, particularly for injuries resulting from interpersonal violence. Observation of a so-called preventive paradox phenomenon is discussed, and prevention or intervention measures are described.

Therapeutic drug monitoring in cancer - Are we missing a trick?

Therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) can be defined as the measurement of drug in biological samples to individualise treatment by adapting drug dose to improve efficacy and/or reduce toxicity. The cytotoxic drugs are characterised by steep dose-response relationships and narrow therapeutic windows. Inter-individual pharmacokinetic (PK) variability is often substantial. There are, however, a multitude of reasons why TDM has never been fully implemented in daily oncology practice. These include difficulties in establishing appropriate concentration target, common use of combination chemotherapies and the paucity of published data from pharmacological trials. The situation is different with targeted therapies. The large interindividual PK variability is influenced by the pharmacogenetic background of the patient (e.g. cytochrome P450 and ABC transporters polymorphisms), patient characteristics such as adherence to treatment and environmental factors (drug-drug interactions). Retrospective studies have shown that targeted drug exposure correlates with treatment response in various cancers. Evidence for imatinib currently exists, others are emerging for compounds including nilotinib, dasatinib, erlotinib, sunitinib, sorafenib and mammalian target of rapamycin (mTOR) inhibitors. Applications for TDM during oral targeted therapies may best be reserved for particular situations including lack of therapeutic response, severe or unexpected toxicities, anticipated drug-drug interactions and concerns over adherence treatment. There are still few data with monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) in favour of TDM approaches, even if data showed encouraging results with rituximab and cetuximab. TDM of mAbs is not yet supported by scientific evidence. Considerable effort should be made for targeted therapies to better define concentration-effect relationships and to perform comparative randomised trials of classic dosing versus pharmacokinetically-guided adaptive dosing.

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in never-smoking animal farmers working inside confinement buildings

BACKGROUND: In animal farming, respiratory disease has been associated with indoor air contaminants and an excess in FEV1 decline. Our aim was to determine the characteristics and risk factors for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in never-smoking European farmers working inside animal confinement buildings. METHODS: A sample of participants in the European Farmers' Study was selected for a cross-sectional study assessing lung function and air contaminants. Dose-response relationships were assessed using logistic regression models. RESULTS: COPD was found in 18 of 105 farmers (45.1 SD 11.7 years) (17.1%); 8 cases (7.6%) with moderate and 3 cases (2.9%) with severe disease. Dust and endotoxin showed a dose-response relationship with COPD, with the highest prevalence of COPD in subjects with high dust (low=7.9%/high=31.6%) and endotoxin exposure (low=10.5%/high=20.0%). This association was statistically significant for dust in the multivariate analysis (OR 6.60, 95% CI 1.10-39.54). CONCLUSION: COPD in never-smoking animal farmers working inside confinement buildings is related to indoor dust exposure and may become severe. [Authors]

Los conceptos de salud financiera, riesgo y epidemiología en los estados financieros de las compañías del sector de extracción de petróleo crudo y gas natural en Colombia

El presente proyecto tiene como objeto identificar cuáles son los conceptos de salud, enfermedad, epidemiología y riesgo aplicables a las empresas del sector de extracción de petróleo y gas natural en Colombia. Dado, el bajo nivel de predicción de los análisis financieros tradicionales y su insuficiencia, en términos de inversión y toma de decisiones a largo plazo, además de no considerar variables como el riesgo y las expectativas de futuro, surge la necesidad de abordar diferentes perspectivas y modelos integradores. Esta apreciación es pertinente dentro del sector de extracción de petróleo y gas natural, debido a la creciente inversión extranjera que ha reportado, US$2.862 millones en el 2010, cifra mayor a diez veces su valor en el año 2003. Así pues, se podrían desarrollar modelos multi-dimensional, con base en los conceptos de salud financiera, epidemiológicos y estadísticos. El termino de salud y su adopción en el sector empresarial, resulta útil y mantiene una coherencia conceptual, evidenciando una presencia de diferentes subsistemas o factores interactuantes e interconectados. Es necesario mencionar también, que un modelo multidimensional (multi-stage) debe tener en cuenta el riesgo y el análisis epidemiológico ha demostrado ser útil al momento de determinarlo e integrarlo en el sistema junto a otros conceptos, como la razón de riesgo y riesgo relativo. Esto se analizará mediante un estudio teórico-conceptual, que complementa un estudio previo, para contribuir al proyecto de finanzas corporativas de la línea de investigación en Gerencia.

Fitting models for the joint action of two drugs using SAS(R)

Combinations of drugs are increasingly being used for a wide variety of diseases and conditions. A pre-clinical study may allow the investigation of the response at a large number of dose combinations. In determining the response to a drug combination, interest may lie in seeking evidence of synergism, in which the joint action is greater than the actions of the individual drugs, or of antagonism, in which it is less. Two well-known response surface models representing no interaction are Loewe additivity and Bliss independence, and Loewe or Bliss synergism or antagonism is defined relative to these. We illustrate an approach to fitting these models for the case in which the marginal single drug dose-response relationships are represented by four-parameter logistic curves with common upper and lower limits, and where the response variable is normally distributed with a common variance about the dose-response curve. When the dose-response curves are not parallel, the relative potency of the two drugs varies according to the magnitude of the desired effect and the models for Loewe additivity and synergism/antagonism cannot be explicitly expressed. We present an iterative approach to fitting these models without the assumption of parallel dose-response curves. A goodness-of-fit test based on residuals is also described. Implementation using the SAS NLIN procedure is illustrated using data from a pre-clinical study. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Caseinoglycomacropeptide inhibits adhesion of pathogenic Escherichia coli strains to human cells in culture

Caseinoglycomacropeptide (CGMP) derived from kappa-casein was investigated for its ability to inhibit the adhesion of 3 strains of verotoxigenic Escherichia coli (VTEC) and 3 strains of enteropathogenic Escherichia coli (EPEC) to human HT29 tissue cell cultures. Effects on adhesion of Desulfovibrio desulfuricans, Lactobacillus pentosus, Lactobacillus casei, Lactobacillus acidophilus, and Lactobacillus gasseri were also investigated. Generally, CGMP exerted effective anti-adhesive properties at a dose of 2.5 mg/mL, albeit with a high degree of strain specificity. The CGMP reduced adhesion of VTEC strains to < 50% of the control and reduced adhesion of EPEC strains to between 80 and 10% of the control. The CGMP also reduced the adhesion of L. pentosus and L. casei to 44 and 42%, respectively. A slight but significant reduction of L. acidophilus, to 81%, was observed, but no significant effects were detected with either Dsv. desulfuricans or L. gasseri. Further investigation of the dose response relationships with the E. coli strains gave IC50 values ranging between 0.12 and 1.06 mg/mL.