Asymptotic minimax robust and misspecified Lorden quickest change detection for dependent stochastic processes

The quick detection of an abrupt unknown change in the conditional distribution of a dependent stochastic process has numerous applications. In this paper, we pose a minimax robust quickest change detection problem for cases where there is uncertainty about the post-change conditional distribution. Our minimax robust formulation is based on the popular Lorden criteria of optimal quickest change detection. Under a condition on the set of possible post-change distributions, we show that the widely known cumulative sum (CUSUM) rule is asymptotically minimax robust under our Lorden minimax robust formulation as a false alarm constraint becomes more strict. We also establish general asymptotic bounds on the detection delay of misspecified CUSUM rules (i.e. CUSUM rules that are designed with post- change distributions that differ from those of the observed sequence). We exploit these bounds to compare the delay performance of asymptotically minimax robust, asymptotically optimal, and other misspecified CUSUM rules. In simulation examples, we illustrate that asymptotically minimax robust CUSUM rules can provide better detection delay performance at greatly reduced computation effort compared to competing generalised likelihood ratio procedures.

Inter-cycle variability of ignition delay in an ethanol fumigated common rail diesel engine

An experimental study has been performed to investigate the ignition delay of a modern heavy-duty common-rail diesel engine run with fumigated ethanol substitutions up to 40% on an energy basis. The ignition delay was determined through the use of statistical modelling in a Bayesian framework this framework allows for the accurate determination of the start of combustion from single consecutive cycles and does not require any differentiation of the in-cylinder pressure signal. At full load the ignition delay has been shown to decrease with increasing ethanol substitutions and evidence of combustion with high ethanol substitutions prior to diesel injection have also been shown experimentally and by modelling. Whereas, at half load increasing ethanol substitutions have increased the ignition delay. A threshold absolute air to fuel ratio (mole basis) of above ~110 for consistent operation has been determined from the inter-cycle variability of the ignition delay, a result that agrees well with previous research of other in-cylinder parameters and further highlights the correlation between the air to fuel ratio and inter-cycle variability. Numerical modelling to investigate the sensitivity of ethanol combustion has also been performed. It has been shown that ethanol combustion is sensitive to the initial air temperature around the feasible operating conditions of the engine. Moreover, a negative temperature coefficient region of approximately 900{1050 K (the approximate temperature at fuel injection) has been shown with for n-heptane and n-heptane/ethanol blends in the numerical modelling. A consequence of this is that the dominate effect influencing the ignition delay under increasing ethanol substitutions may rather be from an increase in chemical reactions and not from in-cylinder temperature. Further investigation revealed that the chemical reactions at low ethanol substitutions are different compared to the high (> 20%) ethanol substitutions.

Impact of mobility constraints on epidemic broadcast mechanisms in delay-tolerant networks

In this paper, we investigate the effect of mobility constraints on epidemic broadcast mechanisms in DTNs (Delay-Tolerant Networks). Major factors affecting epidemic broadcast performances are its forwarding algorithm and node mobility. The impact of forwarding algorithm and node mobility on epidemic broadcast mechanisms has been actively studied in the literature, but those studies generally use unconstrained mobility models. The objective of this paper is therefore to quantitatively investigate the effect of mobility constraints on epidemic broadcast mechanisms. We evaluate the performances of three classes of epidemic broadcast mechanisms - P-BCAST (PUSH-based BroadCast), SA-BCAST (Self-Adaptive BroadCast), and HP-BCAST (History-based P-BCAST) - with a random waypoint mobility model with mobility constraints. Our finding includes that the existence of mobility constraints significantly improves the reach ability and dissemination speed of epidemic broadcast mechanisms while degrading their efficiency.

Mesenchymal stromal cells transiently alter the inflammatory milieu post-transplant to delay graft-versus-host disease

Background: Multipotent mesenchymal stromal cells suppress T-cell function in vitro, a property that has underpinned their use in treating clinical steroid-refractory graft-versus-host disease after allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation. However the potential of mesenchymal stromal cells to resolve graft-versus-host disease is confounded by a paucity of pre-clinical data delineating their immunomodulatory effects in vivo. Design and Methods: We examined the influence of timing and dose of donor-derived mesenchymal stromal cells on the kinetics of graft-versus-host disease in two murine models of graft-versus-host disease (major histocompatibility complex-mismatched: UBI-GFP/BL6 [H-2b]→BALB/c [H-2d] and the sibling transplant mimic, UBI-GFP/BL6 [H-2b]→BALB.B [H-2b]) using clinically relevant conditioning regimens. We also examined the effect of mesenchymal stromal cell infusion on bone marrow and spleen cellular composition and cytokine secretion in transplant recipients. Results: Despite T-cell suppression in vitro, mesenchymal stromal cells delayed but did not prevent graft-versus-host disease in the major histocompatibility complex-mismatched model. In the sibling transplant model, however, 30% of mesenchymal stromal cell-treated mice did not develop graft-versus-host disease. The timing of administration and dose of the mesenchymal stromal cells influenced their effectiveness in attenuating graft-versus-host disease, such that a low dose of mesenchymal stromal cells administered early was more effective than a high dose of mesenchymal stromal cells given late. Compared to control-treated mice, mesenchymal stromal cell-treated mice had significant reductions in serum and splenic interferon-γ, an important mediator of graft-versus-host disease. Conclusions: Mesenchymal stromal cells appear to delay death from graft-versus-host disease by transiently altering the inflammatory milieu and reducing levels of interferon-γ. Our data suggest that both the timing of infusion and the dose of mesenchymal stromal cells likely influence these cells’ effectiveness in attenuating graft-versus-host disease.

Comparing the effect of inadequate documentation to the cost management and tendering processes in managing contractor and fixed lump sum contracts in Australia

Purpose of this paper This research aims to examine the effects of inadequate documentation to the cost management & tendering processes in Managing Contractor Contracts using Fixed Lump Sum as a benchmark. Design/methodology/approach A questionnaire survey was conducted with industry practitioners to solicit their views on documentation quality issues associated with the construction industry. This is followed by a series of semi-structured interviews with a purpose of validating survey findings. Findings and value The results showed that documentation quality remains a significant issue, contributing to the industries inefficiency and poor reputation. The level of satisfaction for individual attributes of documentation quality varies. Attributes that do appear to be affected by the choice of procurement method include coordination, build ability, efficiency, completeness and delivery time. Similarly the use and effectiveness of risk mitigation techniques appears to vary between the methods, based on a number of factors such as documentation completeness, early involvement, fast tracking etc. Originality/value of paper This research fills the gap of existing body of knowledge in terms of limited studies on the choice of a project procurement system has an influence on the documentation quality and the level of impact. Conclusions Ultimately research concludes that the entire project team including the client and designers should carefully consider the individual projects requirements and compare those to the trade-offs associated with documentation quality and the procurement method. While documentation quality is definitely an issue to be improved upon, by identifying the projects performance requirements a procurement method can be chosen to maximise the likelihood that those requirements will be met. This allows the aspects of documentation quality considered most important to the individual project to be managed appropriately.

Choosing appropriate contract methods for design-build projects

For design-build (DB) projects, owners normally use lump sum and Guaranteed Maximum Price (GMP) as the major contract payment provisions. However, there was a lack of empirical studies to compare the project performance within different contract types and investigate how different project characteristics affect the owners’ selection of contract arrangement. Project information from Design-build Institute of America (DBIA) database was collected to reveal the statistical relationship between different project characteristics and contract types and to compare project performance between lump sum and GMP contract. The results show that lump sum is still the most frequently used contract method for DB projects, especially in the public sector. However, projects using GMP contract are more likely to have less schedule delay and cost overrun as compared to those with lump sum contract. The chi-square tests of cross tabulations reveal that project type, owner type, and procurement method affect the selection of contract types significantly. Civil infrastructure rather than industrial engineering project tends to use lump sum more frequently; and qualification-oriented contractor selection process resorts to GMP more often compared with cost-oriented process. The findings of this research contribute to the current body of knowledge concerning the effect of associated project characteristics on contract type selection. Overall, the results of this study provide empirical evidence from real DB projects that can be used by owners to select appropriate contract types and eventually improve future project performance.

Somewhere between haste and delay... Investigating the interactions of road users and pedestrians in a dynamic rail level crossing environment

There are currently 23,500 level crossings in Australia, broadly divided into one of two categories: active level crossings which are fully automatic and have boom barriers, alarm bells, flashing lights, and pedestrian gates; and passive level crossings, which are not automatic and aim to control road and pedestrianised walkways solely with stop and give way signs. Active level crossings are considered to be the gold standard for transport ergonomics when grade separation (i.e. constructing an over- or underpass) is not viable. In Australia, the current strategy is to annually upgrade passive level crossings with active controls but active crossings are also associated with traffic congestion, largely as a result of extended closure times. The percentage of time level crossings are closed to road vehicles during peak periods increases with the rise in the frequency of train services. The popular perception appears to be that once a level crossing is upgraded, one is free to wipe their hands and consider the job done. However, there may also be environments where active protection is not enough, but where the setting may not justify the capital costs of grade separation. Indeed, the associated congestion and traffic delay could compromise safety by contributing to the risk taking behaviour by motorists and pedestrians. In these environments it is important to understand what human factor issues are present and ask the question of whether a one size fits all solution is indeed the most ergonomically sound solution for today’s transport needs.

Delay tolerant routing protocols for energy-neutral animal tracking

This paper investigates communication protocols for relaying sensor data from animal tracking applications back to base stations. While Delay Tolerant Networks (DTNs) are well suited to such challenging environments, most existing protocols do not consider the available energy that is particularly important when tracking devices can harvest energy. This limits both the network lifetime and delivery probability in energy-constrained applications to the point when routing performance becomes worse than using no routing at all. Our work shows that substantial improvement in data yields can be achieved through simple yet efficient energy-aware strategies. Conceptually, there is need for balancing the energy spent on sensing, data mulling, and delivery of direct packets to destination. We use empirical traces collected in a flying fox (fruit bat) tracking project and show that simple threshold-based energy-aware strategies yield up to 20% higher delivery rates. Furthermore, these results generalize well for a wide range of operating conditions.

Within-Die Gate Delay Variability Measurement using Re-configurable Ring Oscillator

We report a circuit technique to measure the on-chip delay of an individual logic gate (both inverting and non-inverting) in its unmodified form using digitally reconfigurable ring oscillator (RO). Solving a system of linear equations with different configuration setting of the RO gives delay of an individual gate. Experimental results from a test chip in 65nm process node show the feasibility of measuring the delay of an individual inverter to within 1pS accuracy. Delay measurements of different nominally identical inverters in close physical proximity show variations of up to 26% indicating the large impact of local or within-die variations.

Within-Die Gate Delay Variability Measurement Using Reconfigurable Ring Oscillator

We report the design and characterization of a circuit technique to measure the on-chip delay of an individual logic gate (both inverting and noninverting) in its unmodified form. The test circuit comprises of digitally reconfigurable ring oscillator (RO). The gate under test is embedded in each stage of the ring oscillator. A system of linear equations is then formed with different configuration settings of the RO, relating the individual gate delay to the measured period of the RO, whose solution gives the delay of the individual gates. Experimental results from a test chip in 65-nm process node show the feasibility of measuring the delay of an individual inverter to within 1 ps accuracy. Delay measurements of different nominally identicall inverters in close physical proximity show variations of up to 28% indicating the large impact of local variations. As a demonstration of this technique, we have studied delay variation with poly-pitch, length of diffusion (LOD) and different orientations of layout in silicon. The proposed technique is quite suitable for early process characterization, monitoring mature process in manufacturing and correlating model-to-hardware.

Determination of the magnetic moment by QCD sum rules

The magnetic moment of the Λ hyperon is calculated using the QCD sum-rule approach of Ioffe and Smilga. It is shown that μΛ has the structure μΛ=(2/3(eu+ed+4es)(eħ/2MΛc)(1+δΛ), where δΛ is small. In deriving the sum rules special attention is paid to the strange-quark mass-dependent terms and to several additional terms not considered in earlier works. These terms are now appropriately incorporated. The sum rule is analyzed using the ratio method. Using the external-field-induced susceptibilities determined earlier, we find that the calculated value of μΛ is in agreement with experiment.