Ethical screening and financial performance : the case of Islamic equity funds

Whether ethical screening affects portfolio performance is an important question that is yet to be settled in the literature. This paper aims to shed further light on this question by examining the performance of a large global sample of Islamic equity funds (IEFs) from 1984 to 2010. We find that IEFs underperform conventional funds by an average of 40 basis points per month, consistent with the underperformance hypothesis. In line with popular media claims that Islamic funds are a safer investment, IEFs outperformed conventional funds during the recent banking crisis. However, we find no such outperformance for other crises or high volatility periods. Based on fund holdings-based data, we provide evidence of a negative curvilinear relation between fund performance and ethical screening intensity, consistent with a return trade-off to being more ethical.

Crowdfunding para organizaciones del Tercer y Cuarto Sector

Máster en Dirección Empresarial desde la Innovación y la Internacionalización. Curso 2013/2014

Bandwidth selection by cross-validation for forecasting long memory financial time series

The paper addresses the issue of choice of bandwidth in the application of semiparametric estimation of the long memory parameter in a univariate time series process. The focus is on the properties of forecasts from the long memory model. A variety of cross-validation methods based on out of sample forecasting properties are proposed. These procedures are used for the choice of bandwidth and subsequent model selection. Simulation evidence is presented that demonstrates the advantage of the proposed new methodology.

ANN-Based LMP forecasting in a distribution network with large penetration of DG

In recent years, power systems have experienced many changes in their paradigm. The introduction of new players in the management of distributed generation leads to the decentralization of control and decision-making, so that each player is able to play in the market environment. In the new context, it will be very relevant that aggregator players allow midsize, small and micro players to act in a competitive environment. In order to achieve their objectives, virtual power players and single players are required to optimize their energy resource management process. To achieve this, it is essential to have financial resources capable of providing access to appropriate decision support tools. As small players have difficulties in having access to such tools, it is necessary that these players can benefit from alternative methodologies to support their decisions. This paper presents a methodology, based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), and intended to support smaller players. In this case the present methodology uses a training set that is created using energy resource scheduling solutions obtained using a mixed-integer linear programming (MIP) approach as the reference optimization methodology. The trained network is used to obtain locational marginal prices in a distribution network. The main goal of the paper is to verify the accuracy of the ANN based approach. Moreover, the use of a single ANN is compared with the use of two or more ANN to forecast the locational marginal price.

The effect of financial leverage on real and accrual-based earnings management

Past research has documented a substitution effect between real earnings management (RM) and accrual-based earnings management (AM), depending on relative costs. This study contributes to this research by examining whether levels of (and changes in) financial leverage have an impact on this empirically documented trade-off. We hypothesise that in the presence of high leverage, firms that engage in earnings manipulation tactics will exhibit a preference for RM due to a lower possibility—and subsequent costs—of getting caught. We show that leverage levels and increases positively and significantly affect upward RM, with no significant effect on income-increasing AM, while our findings point towards a complementarity effect between unexpected levels of RM and AM for firms with very high leverage levels and changes. This is interpreted as an indication that high leverage could attract heavy outsider scrutiny, making it necessary for firms to use both forms of earnings management in order to achieve earnings targets. Furthermore, we document that equity investors exhibit a significantly stronger penalising reaction to AM vs. RM, indicating that leverage-induced RM is not as easily detectable by market participants as debt-induced AM, despite the fact that the former could imply deviation from optimal business practices.

Crowdfunding no Brasil: uma análise sobre as motivações de quem participa

Este trabalho procurou investigar as motivações para a participação de apoiadores no modelo de recompensa de crowdfunding no Brasil, sob a luz dos aspectos encontrados na pesquisa americana de Gerber e Hui (2014). Como a participação nesse modelo é voluntária, entendeu- se ser importante compreender os motivos que levam pessoas a apoiarem projetos. Acredita- se que este trabalho tenha atingido o que foi por ele proposto, deixando contribuições em diversos sentidos. A fim de aprofundar o entendimento desse novo fenômeno social, apresentou-se uma pesquisa qualitativa fundamentada em um estudo de caso múltiplo, em que os apoiadores eram a unidade de análise, nas três maiores plataformas de crowdfunding do Brasil: Queremos, Catarse e Benfeitoria. E, como fonte de informações para esta metodologia, optou-se pelo método qualitativo de entrevistas em profundidade com os elementos da unidade de análise. Foram realizadas 11 entrevistas com apoiadores, sendo 06 homens e 05 mulheres. O trabalho também teve o objetivo de conhecer melhor o cenário nacional desse mercado, a partir de entrevistas em profundidade com os fundadores das plataformas e um heavy user (mais de 140 projetos apoiados) do modelo. Após a consolidação e análise dos dados obtidos, verificou-se a presença das motivações encontradas nos estudos de Gerber (GERBER e HUI, 2014), porém com algumas ressalvas quanto a motivação “Fazer parte de uma comunidade”, explicitada a seguir. A pesquisa qualitativa refinou substancialmente a compreensão do que motiva apoiadores a participar de crowdfunding, incluindo aspectos importantes que devem ser levados em consideração quanto a práticas do mercado. Ao final, as conclusões e implicações deste estudo foram detalhadamente apresentadas.

Factors influencing consumer decision in crowdfunding

Crowdfunding é um método recente e emergente de captar dinheiro para desenvolvimento de projetos (tanto orientados a lucro ou não) sem a intermediação tradicional de instituições financeiras, liberando empreendedores de custos, regulações e burocracia associada a essa prática. Além disso, também é um método de pré-testar novos produtos com um público selecionado e entusiasmado. O objetivo dessa dissertação é entender que fatores estão influenciando a decisão do consumidor de investir em projetos. A literatura contribui com: (1) fatores intrínsecos, como desejo de patronagem; (2) fatores extrínsecos, como a apresentação do projeto; e (3) pressão social. Há ainda fatores associados com o nível atual de captação e número de investidores, assim como tipo de projeto envolvido, sendo ele de caridade ou não. Além disso, atitudes também possuem um papel em afetar a decisão de compra. Para responder a pergunta de pesquisa, uma metodologia de duas fases foi usada: uma entrevista de profundidade para capturar intenção de investir e motivação, de forma a construir um processo de decisão que englobasse todas as possibilidades descritas pela literatura. Após essa pesquisa qualitativa, uma pesquisa quantitativa foi feita para validar as informações coletadas pela fase anterior e coletar dados adicionais para gerar uma associação entre intenção de investir e comportamento. Dentre as informações geradas pela fase qualitativa, temos o fato que a maioria dos investidores tiveram como principal motivação a compra do produto sendo oferecido como se eles estivessem participando de uma pré-venda. Entretanto, essa não foi a principal razão para o investidor de caridade. Além disso, os respondentes que pré-compraram os produtos o fizeram para única razão que esses produtos satisfizeram desejos que tinham. Esses desejos variavam, sendo desde saudade de jogos antigos como resolver um problema de organização da carteira. Outra característica da pré-compra foi que eles não investiam valores simbólicos, pela razão que se o fizessem não receberiam o produto em troca. Recompensas tiveram um grande papel em atrair os respondentes para investimento em valores maiores que consideravam anteriormente. Também é verdade para o investidor em caridade, que também doou mais. A fase quantitativa confirmou as informações acima e gerou informação extra sobre as categorias de produto. Projetos de caridade e arte concentraram a maioria dos respondentes que disseram que a principal razão para investir foi basicamente ajudar a desenvolver o projeto sem demandar um produto em retorno. Entretanto, outros projetos como Música também apresentaram altos números de comportamento caridoso, possivelmente por causa do envolvimento emocional com o artista. Outras categorias apresentaram um mix de razões para investir ou enviesado a comprar o produto apenas, o que pode ser explicado pelo efeito de recompensas e pelo fato que essas categorias estão simplesmente pré-vendendo produtos. Essa pesquisa também confirmou as principais fontes usadas para conhecer mais sobre os projetos: recomendação pessoal e blogs e fóruns. Outro resultado dessa fase foi o desenvolvimento de fatores a partir de frases atitudinais que puderam explicar intenção de investir. Seis fatores foram criados: Entusiasmo (por crowdfunding), Exclusividade (compra de recompensas), Caridade (doações pequenas para ajudar o desenvolvimento do projeto), Cautela (similar à difusão de responsabilidade, isto é, espera por mais investidores para dar o primeiro passo), Intimidade (projeto foi recomendado ou há ligação emocional com o criador) e Compartilhamento (compartilhar para ajudar a trazer mais investidores para o projeto). Categorias com alto envolvimento emocional apresentaram associação com Intimidade, como música, filme e tecnologia. Dado o fato que a amostra não continha muitos entusiastas por crowdfunding, esse fator não apresentou qualquer associação com as categorias. Categorias que não entregam produtos em troca, como comida e fotografia, apresentaram altos níveis de associação com o fator caridade. Compartilhamento é altamente associado com tecnologia, dado o fato que essa categoria concentra os respondentes que são mais orientados à inovação e entusiastas sobre o produto, então precisam compartilhar e gerar boca-a-boca para ajudar a atingir a meta de investimento.

The bias in reversing the Box-Cox transformation in time series forecasting: An empirical study based on neural networks

The Box-Cox transformation is a technique mostly utilized to turn the probabilistic distribution of a time series data into approximately normal. And this helps statistical and neural models to perform more accurate forecastings. However, it introduces a bias when the reversion of the transformation is conducted with the predicted data. The statistical methods to perform a bias-free reversion require, necessarily, the assumption of Gaussianity of the transformed data distribution, which is a rare event in real-world time series. So, the aim of this study was to provide an effective method of removing the bias when the reversion of the Box-Cox transformation is executed. Thus, the developed method is based on a focused time lagged feedforward neural network, which does not require any assumption about the transformed data distribution. Therefore, to evaluate the performance of the proposed method, numerical simulations were conducted and the Mean Absolute Percentage Error, the Theil Inequality Index and the Signal-to-Noise ratio of 20-step-ahead forecasts of 40 time series were compared, and the results obtained indicate that the proposed reversion method is valid and justifies new studies. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Transit Use by Young People in Times of Financial Austerity: A Cause of Equity Concern?

This study investigates the effect of price and travel time fairness and spatial equity in transit provision on the perceived transit service quality, willingness to pay, and habitual frequency of use. Based on the theory of planned behavior, we developed a web-based questionnaire for revealed preferences data collection. The survey was administered among young people in Copenhagen and Lisbon to explore the transit perceptions and use under different economic and transit provision conditions. The survey yielded 499 questionnaires, analyzed by means of structural equation models. Results show that higher perceived fairness relates positively to higher perceived quality of transit service and higher perceived ease of paying for transit use. Higher perceived spatial equity in service provision is associated with higher perceived service quality. Higher perceived service quality relates to higher perceived ease of payment, which links to higher frequency of transit use.

L’equity crowdfunding: i fattori critici di successo

Questa tesi si basa su una raccolta e una successiva elaborazione di dati effettuata su Crowdcube, la piattaforma di crowdfunding di investimento leader a livello mondiale, con lo scopo di analizzare il fenomeno dell’equity-crowdfunding in tutte le sue diverse caratteristiche. Attraverso gli strumenti grafici e computazionali, si studierà un campione di circa 100 progetti, con l’obiettivo finale di individuare e studiare “i fattori critici di successo”, derivanti dalle correlazioni tra caratteristiche dei progetti presentati e successo ottenuto da questi ultimi nell’ottica di finanziamenti ricevuti. L’importanza di questo studio è data dalla necessità dei progettisti che presentano le campagne di crowdfunding di capire come poter rassicurare e convincere gli investitori, in modo da avere una raccolta fondi di successo. L’analisi sarà arricchita da tabelle, istogrammi e grafici, con lo scopo di supportare l’esplicazione dei vari concetti e delineare eventuali trend.

Financing local development through crowdfunding: An empirical analysis of social projects in Portugal

Crowdfunding (CF) is an increasingly attractive source to fund social projects. However, to our best knowledge, the study of CF for social purposes has remained largely unexplored in the literature. This research envisages a detailed examination of the role of CF on the early-stage of the social projects at regional level. By comparing the characteristics of the projects available in the Portuguese Social Stock Exchange (PSSE) platform with others that did not use this source of financial support, we explore its role on regional development. The results we got show that, in most cases, both PSSE and Non-Governmental Organizations projects complemented the services offered by the State or by the private sector. Furthermore, about a quarter of the projects present in PSSE operated in areas that were not being addressed neither by the services offered by the State nor by the ones of the private sector. The results attained show that more recent social ventures have a greater propensity to use PSSE. The same is find in those organizations which work closely with the target audience. We also observed that the use of PSSE was correlated with the geographical scope of the Social Venture. The circumstance of having the social organization acting at a local or regional level seems to be strongly associated with the possibility of using social crowdfunding for financing social projects.

Financing social ventures by crowdfunding: The inflluence of entrepreneurs’ personality traits

Purpose – This research aims to understand the role played by social entrepreneurs’ personality traits on the choice between the traditional donation model and social crowdfunding (CF) to finance social projects. Design/methodology/approach – Social CF is examined as an instrument to capture funds for social projects, and the particular case of the Portuguese Social Stock Exchange (PSSE) is presented. The approach is quantitative in nature and the data were collected through a questionnaire that was emailed to non-governmental organizations in Portugal and founders of the projects listed on PSSE. Logistic regression was employed to predict the probability that a social entrepreneur would use PSSE rather than traditional financing. The predictor variables were based on the big five personality traits. Findings – Our investigation reveals that the agreeableness and neuroticism factors were not even considered in the results of the factorial analysis, which indicates the minor importance of these personality traits in the funding decisions of the Portuguese social entrepreneurs. The same applies to the factors of openness to new experiences and extraversion, which, although considered in the logistic analysis, showed no statistical significance. Finally, the conscientiousness personality trait seems to be the only factor that might explain the use of the PSSE platform.Originality/value – Studies on the profile of the social entrepreneurs that use CF for financing social projects are relatively rare, specifically in the context of Social Stock Exchange platforms. Additionally, there is a need to carry out more empirical evidence about the effect of social entrepreneurs’ personality traits on the decision to finance social projects through social CF platforms vis-a-vis the traditional donation model.

Consumer-based brand equity for Australia as a long haul tourism destination in an emerging market

Purpose: Although the branding literature emerged during the 1940s, research relating to tourism destination branding has only gained momentum since the late 1990s. There remains a lack of theory in particular that addresses the measurement of the effectiveness of destination branding over time. The purpose of the research was to test the effectiveness of a model of consumer-based brand equity (CBBE) for a country destination.---------- Design/methodology: A model of consumer-based brand equity was adapted from the marketing literature and applied to a nation context. The model was tested by using structural equation modelling with data from a large Chilean sample (n=845), comprising a mix of previous visitors and non-visitors. The model fits the data well. Findings: This paper reports the results of an investigation into brand equity for Australia as a long haul destination in an emerging market. The research took place just before the launch of the nation’s fourth new brand campaign in six years. The results indicate Australia is a well known but not compelling destination brand for tourists in Chile, which reflects the lower priority the South American market has been given by the national tourism office (NTO).---------- Practical implications: It is suggested that CBBE measures could be analysed at various points in time to track any strengthening or weakening of market perceptions in relation to brand objectives. A standard CBBE instrument could provide long-term effectiveness performance measures regardless of changes in destination marketing organisation (DMO) staff, advertising agency, other stakeholders, and budget.---------- Originality/value: This study contributes to the nation-branding literature by being one of the first to test the efficacy of a model of consumer-based brand equity for a tourism destination brand.

Valuing brand equity of a geographic region

There is much anecdotal evidence and academic argument that the location of a business influences its value. That is, some businesses appear to be worth more than others because of their location. This is particularly so in the tourism industry. Within the domain of the destination literature, many factors can be posited on why business valuation varies, ranging from access to markets, availability of labor, climate, and surrounding services. Given that business value is such a fundamental principle that underpins the viability of the tourist industry through its relationship with pricing, business acquisition, and investment, it is surprising that scant research has sought to quantify the relative premium associated with geographic locations. This study proposes a novel way in which to estimate geographic brand premium. Specifically, the approach translates valuation techniques from financial economics to quantify the incremental value derived from businesses operating in a particular geographic region, and produces a geographic brand premium. The article applies the technique to a well-known tourist destination in Australia, and the results are consistent with a positive value of brand equity in the key industries and are of a plausible order of magnitude. The article carries strong implications for business and tourism operators in terms of valuation, pricing, and investment, but more generally, the approach is potentially useful to local authorities and business associations when deciding how much resource and effort should be devoted to brand protection.