Zero-non-zero patterned vector error correction modeling for I(2) cointegrated time series with applications in testing PPP and stock market relationships

Vector error-correction models (VECMs) have become increasingly important in their application to financial markets. Standard full-order VECM models assume non-zero entries in all their coefficient matrices. However, applications of VECM models to financial market data have revealed that zero entries are often a necessary part of efficient modelling. In such cases, the use of full-order VECM models may lead to incorrect inferences. Specifically, if indirect causality or Granger non-causality exists among the variables, the use of over-parameterised full-order VECM models may weaken the power of statistical inference. In this paper, it is argued that the zero–non-zero (ZNZ) patterned VECM is a more straightforward and effective means of testing for both indirect causality and Granger non-causality. For a ZNZ patterned VECM framework for time series of integrated order two, we provide a new algorithm to select cointegrating and loading vectors that can contain zero entries. Two case studies are used to demonstrate the usefulness of the algorithm in tests of purchasing power parity and a three-variable system involving the stock market.

An econometric analysis of international tourism demand in Hong Kong : a cointegration and error correction approach

The purpose of this study is to develop econometric models to better understand the economic factors affecting inbound tourist flows from each of six origin countries that contribute to Hong Kong’s international tourism demand. To this end, we test alternative cointegration and error correction approaches to examine the economic determinants of tourist flows to Hong Kong, and to produce accurate econometric forecasts of inbound tourism demand. Our empirical findings show that permanent income is the most significant determinant of tourism demand in all models. The variables of own price, weighted substitute prices, trade volume, the share price index (as an indicator of changes in wealth in origin countries), and a dummy variable representing the Beijing incident (1989) are also found to be important determinants for some origin countries. The average long-run income and own price elasticity was measured at 2.66 and – 1.02, respectively. It was hypothesised that permanent income is a better explanatory variable of long-haul tourism demand than current income. A novel approach (grid search process) has been used to empirically derive the weights to be attached to the lagged income variable for estimating permanent income. The results indicate that permanent income, estimated with empirically determined relatively small weighting factors, was capable of producing better results than the current income variable in explaining long-haul tourism demand. This finding suggests that the use of current income in previous empirical tourism demand studies may have produced inaccurate results. The share price index, as a measure of wealth, was also found to be significant in two models. Studies of tourism demand rarely include wealth as an explanatory forecasting long-haul tourism demand. However, finding a satisfactory proxy for wealth common to different countries is problematic. This study indicates with the ECM (Error Correction Models) based on the Engle-Granger (1987) approach produce more accurate forecasts than ECM based on Pesaran and Shin (1998) and Johansen (1988, 1991, 1995) approaches for all of the long-haul markets and Japan. Overall, ECM produce better forecasts than the OLS, ARIMA and NAÏVE models, indicating the superiority of the application of a cointegration approach for tourism demand forecasting. The results show that permanent income is the most important explanatory variable for tourism demand from all countries but there are substantial variations between countries with the long-run elasticity ranging between 1.1 for the U.S. and 5.3 for U.K. Price is the next most important variable with the long-run elasticities ranging between -0.8 for Japan and -1.3 for Germany and short-run elasticities ranging between – 0.14 for Germany and -0.7 for Taiwan. The fastest growing market is Mainland China. The findings have implications for policies and strategies on investment, marketing promotion and pricing.

Pairing Repeated Reading and Systematic Error Correction: Impact on Fluency of 18 Year Old Students on a Small Caribbean Island

This study investigates the impact of a combined treatment of Systematic Error Correction and Repeated Reading on reading rate and errors for 18 year olds with undiagnosed reading difficulties on a Caribbean Island. In addition to direct daily measures of reading accuracy, the Reading Self Perception Scale was administered to determine whether the intervention was associated with changes in the way the student perceives himself as a reader.

Error tolerance of topological codes with independent bit-flip and measurement errors

Topological quantum error correction codes are currently among the most promising candidates for efficiently dealing with the decoherence effects inherently present in quantum devices. Numerically, their theoretical error threshold can be calculated by mapping the underlying quantum problem to a related classical statistical-mechanical spin system with quenched disorder. Here, we present results for the general fault-tolerant regime, where we consider both qubit and measurement errors. However, unlike in previous studies, here we vary the strength of the different error sources independently. Our results highlight peculiar differences between toric and color codes. This study complements previous results published in New J. Phys. 13, 083006 (2011).

Performance Analysis of Topological Quantum Error Correcting Codes

In the last few years there has been a great development of techniques like quantum computers and quantum communication systems, due to their huge potentialities and the growing number of applications. However, physical qubits experience a lot of nonidealities, like measurement errors and decoherence, that generate failures in the quantum computation. This work shows how it is possible to exploit concepts from classical information in order to realize quantum error-correcting codes, adding some redundancy qubits. In particular, the threshold theorem states that it is possible to lower the percentage of failures in the decoding at will, if the physical error rate is below a given accuracy threshold. The focus will be on codes belonging to the family of the topological codes, like toric, planar and XZZX surface codes. Firstly, they will be compared from a theoretical point of view, in order to show their advantages and disadvantages. The algorithms behind the minimum perfect matching decoder, the most popular for such codes, will be presented. The last section will be dedicated to the analysis of the performances of these topological codes with different error channel models, showing interesting results. In particular, while the error correction capability of surface codes decreases in presence of biased errors, XZZX codes own some intrinsic symmetries that allow them to improve their performances if one kind of error occurs more frequently than the others.

Extending Bell's beables to encompass dissipation, decoherence, and the quantum-to-classical transition through quantum trajectories

In this paper, employing the Ito stochastic Schrodinger equation, we extend Bell's beable interpretation of quantum mechanics to encompass dissipation, decoherence, and the quantum-to-classical transition through quantum trajectories. For a particular choice of the source of stochasticity, the one leading to a dissipative Lindblad-type correction to the Hamiltonian dynamics, we find that the diffusive terms in Nelsons stochastic trajectories are naturally incorporated into Bohm's causal dynamics, yielding a unified Bohm-Nelson theory. In particular, by analyzing the interference between quantum trajectories, we clearly identify the decoherence time, as estimated from the quantum formalism. We also observe the quantum-to-classical transition in the convergence of the infinite ensemble of quantum trajectories to their classical counterparts. Finally, we show that our extended beables circumvent the problems in Bohm's causal dynamics regarding stationary states in quantum mechanics.

State protection under collective damping and diffusion

In this paper we provide a recipe for state protection in a network of oscillators under collective damping and diffusion. Our strategy is to manipulate the network topology, i.e., the way the oscillators are coupled together, the strength of their couplings, and their natural frequencies, in order to create a relaxation-diffusion-free channel. This protected channel defines a decoherence-free subspace (DFS) for nonzero-temperature reservoirs. Our development also furnishes an alternative approach to build up DFSs that offers two advantages over the conventional method: it enables the derivation of all the network-protected states at once, and also reveals, through the network normal modes, the mechanism behind the emergence of these protected domains.

Bayesian analysis of the error correction model

This paper presents a method for estimating the posterior probability density of the cointegrating rank of a multivariate error correction model. A second contribution is the careful elicitation of the prior for the cointegrating vectors derived from a prior on the cointegrating space. This prior obtains naturally from treating the cointegrating space as the parameter of interest in inference and overcomes problems previously encountered in Bayesian cointegration analysis. Using this new prior and Laplace approximation, an estimator for the posterior probability of the rank is given. The approach performs well compared with information criteria in Monte Carlo experiments. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Universal state inversion and concurrence in arbitrary dimensions

Wootters [Phys. Rev. Lett. 80, 2245 (1998)] has given an explicit formula for the entanglement of formation of two qubits in terms of what he calls the concurrence of the joint density operator. Wootters's concurrence is defined with the help of the superoperator that flips the spin of a qubit. We generalize the spin-flip superoperator to a universal inverter, which acts on quantum systems of arbitrary dimension, and we introduce the corresponding generalized concurrence for joint pure states of D-1 X D-2 bipartite quantum systems. We call this generalized concurrence the I concurrence to emphasize its relation to the universal inverter. The universal inverter, which is a positive, but not completely positive superoperator, is closely related to the completely positive universal-NOT superoperator, the quantum analogue of a classical NOT gate. We present a physical realization of the universal-NOT Superoperator.

Stochastic Search Variable Selection in Vector Error Correction Models with an Application to a Model of the UK Macroeconomy

This paper develops methods for Stochastic Search Variable Selection (currently popular with regression and Vector Autoregressive models) for Vector Error Correction models where there are many possible restrictions on the cointegration space. We show how this allows the researcher to begin with a single unrestricted model and either do model selection or model averaging in an automatic and computationally efficient manner. We apply our methods to a large UK macroeconomic model.

Automatic generation of active coordinates for quantum dynamics calculations: application to the dynamics of benzene photochemistry

A new practical method to generate a subspace of active coordinates for quantum dynamics calculations is presented. These reduced coordinates are obtained as the normal modes of an analytical quadratic representation of the energy difference between excited and ground states within the complete active space self-consistent field method. At the Franck-Condon point, the largest negative eigenvalues of this Hessian correspond to the photoactive modes: those that reduce the energy difference and lead to the conical intersection; eigenvalues close to 0 correspond to bath modes, while modes with large positive eigenvalues are photoinactive vibrations, which increase the energy difference. The efficacy of quantum dynamics run in the subspace of the photoactive modes is illustrated with the photochemistry of benzene, where theoretical simulations are designed to assist optimal control experiments

From Classical to Quantum Secret Sharing

Dans ce mémoire, nous nous pencherons tout particulièrement sur une primitive cryptographique connue sous le nom de partage de secret. Nous explorerons autant le domaine classique que le domaine quantique de ces primitives, couronnant notre étude par la présentation d’un nouveau protocole de partage de secret quantique nécessitant un nombre minimal de parts quantiques c.-à-d. une seule part quantique par participant. L’ouverture de notre étude se fera par la présentation dans le chapitre préliminaire d’un survol des notions mathématiques sous-jacentes à la théorie de l’information quantique ayant pour but primaire d’établir la notation utilisée dans ce manuscrit, ainsi que la présentation d’un précis des propriétés mathématique de l’état de Greenberger-Horne-Zeilinger (GHZ) fréquemment utilisé dans les domaines quantiques de la cryptographie et des jeux de la communication. Mais, comme nous l’avons mentionné plus haut, c’est le domaine cryptographique qui restera le point focal de cette étude. Dans le second chapitre, nous nous intéresserons à la théorie des codes correcteurs d’erreurs classiques et quantiques qui seront à leur tour d’extrême importances lors de l’introduction de la théorie quantique du partage de secret dans le chapitre suivant. Dans la première partie du troisième chapitre, nous nous concentrerons sur le domaine classique du partage de secret en présentant un cadre théorique général portant sur la construction de ces primitives illustrant tout au long les concepts introduits par des exemples présentés pour leurs intérêts autant historiques que pédagogiques. Ceci préparera le chemin pour notre exposé sur la théorie quantique du partage de secret qui sera le focus de la seconde partie de ce même chapitre. Nous présenterons alors les théorèmes et définitions les plus généraux connus à date portant sur la construction de ces primitives en portant un intérêt particulier au partage quantique à seuil. Nous montrerons le lien étroit entre la théorie quantique des codes correcteurs d’erreurs et celle du partage de secret. Ce lien est si étroit que l’on considère les codes correcteurs d’erreurs quantiques étaient de plus proches analogues aux partages de secrets quantiques que ne leur étaient les codes de partage de secrets classiques. Finalement, nous présenterons un de nos trois résultats parus dans A. Broadbent, P.-R. Chouha, A. Tapp (2009); un protocole sécuritaire et minimal de partage de secret quantique a seuil (les deux autres résultats dont nous traiterons pas ici portent sur la complexité de la communication et sur la simulation classique de l’état de GHZ).

Automatic generation of active coordinates for quantum dynamics calculations: application to the dynamics of benzene photochemistry

A new practical method to generate a subspace of active coordinates for quantum dynamics calculations is presented. These reduced coordinates are obtained as the normal modes of an analytical quadratic representation of the energy difference between excited and ground states within the complete active space self-consistent field method. At the Franck-Condon point, the largest negative eigenvalues of this Hessian correspond to the photoactive modes: those that reduce the energy difference and lead to the conical intersection; eigenvalues close to 0 correspond to bath modes, while modes with large positive eigenvalues are photoinactive vibrations, which increase the energy difference. The efficacy of quantum dynamics run in the subspace of the photoactive modes is illustrated with the photochemistry of benzene, where theoretical simulations are designed to assist optimal control experiments