Changes in phytoplankton composition in response to tides, wind-induced mixing conditions, and freshwater outflows in an urbanised estuarine complex

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Nebraska Wind Power: A Comparitive Study of Knowledge and Attitudes

Abstract The goal of this project is to assess the knowledge and attitudes of Nebraskans on the issue of wind power. The point of this research is to learn whether the presence of wind power has a positive effect on a person’s knowledge about and attitudes toward wind power and wind turbines. Using mail surveys, qualitative and quantitative data were collected from the towns of Pierce and Ainsworth Nebraska. The surveys aided in seeing patterns of knowledge about wind power and wind turbines and positive and negative attitudes and major concerns regarding wind power.

Changes in phytoplankton composition in response to tides, wind-induced mixing conditions, and freshwater outflows in an urbanised estuarine complex

Recent reports have shown an increase in potentially harmful phytoplankton in Santos bay (Southeastern Brazilian Coast), located in a highly urbanised estuarine complex. Prediction of blooms is, thus, essential but the phytoplankton community structure in very dynamic regions is difficult to determine. In the present work, we discriminate bloom forming microphytoplankton dominance and their relationship to physical and meteorological variables to look for patterns observed in different tides and seasons. Comparing 8 distinct situations, we found five scenarios of dominance that could be related to winds, tides and rainfall: i) Surfers, diatoms occurring during high surf zone energies; ii) Sinkers, represented by larger celled diatoms during spring tide, after periods of high precipitation rates; iii) Opportunistic mixers, composed of chain forming diatoms with small or elongate cells occurring during neap tides; iv) Local mixers, microplanktonic diatoms and dinoflagellates which occurred throughout the 298 sampling stations; and v) Mixotrophic dinoflagellates, after intense estuarine discharges. Results suggest alterations in the temporal patterns for some bloom-forming species, while others appeared in abundances above safe limits for public health. This approach can also illustrate possible impacts of changes in freshwater discharge in highly urbanised estuaries.

Palaeo wind system reconstruction of the last glacial period over Europe, using high resolution proxy data and model-data-comparison

The atmosphere is a global influence on the movement of heat and humidity between the continents, and thus significantly affects climate variability. Information about atmospheric circulation are of major importance for the understanding of different climatic conditions. Dust deposits from maar lakes and dry maars from the Eifel Volcanic Field (Germany) are therefore used as proxy data for the reconstruction of past aeolian dynamics.rnrnIn this thesis past two sediment cores from the Eifel region are examined: the core SM3 from Lake Schalkenmehren and the core DE3 from the Dehner dry maar. Both cores contain the tephra of the Laacher See eruption, which is dated to 12,900 before present. Taken together the cores cover the last 60,000 years: SM3 the Holocene and DE3 the marine isotope stages MIS-3 and MIS-2, respectively. The frequencies of glacial dust storm events and their paleo wind direction are detected by high resolution grain size and provenance analysis of the lake sediments. Therefore two different methods are applied: geochemical measurements of the sediment using µXRF-scanning and the particle analysis method RADIUS (rapid particle analysis of digital images by ultra-high-resolution scanning of thin sections).rnIt is shown that single dust layers in the lake sediment are characterized by an increased content of aeolian transported carbonate particles. The limestone-bearing Eifel-North-South zone is the most likely source for the carbonate rich aeolian dust in the lake sediments of the Dehner dry maar. The dry maar is located on the western side of the Eifel-North-South zone. Thus, carbonate rich aeolian sediment is most likely to be transported towards the Dehner dry maar within easterly winds. A methodology is developed which limits the detection to the aeolian transported carbonate particles in the sediment, the RADIUS-carbonate module.rnrnIn summary, during the marine isotope stage MIS-3 the storm frequency and the east wind frequency are both increased in comparison to MIS-2. These results leads to the suggestion that atmospheric circulation was affected by more turbulent conditions during MIS-3 in comparison to the more stable atmospheric circulation during the full glacial conditions of MIS-2.rnThe results of the investigations of the dust records are finally evaluated in relation a study of atmospheric general circulation models for a comprehensive interpretation. Here, AGCM experiments (ECHAM3 and ECHAM4) with different prescribed SST patterns are used to develop a synoptic interpretation of long-persisting east wind conditions and of east wind storm events, which are suggested to lead to an enhanced accumulation of sediment being transported by easterly winds to the proxy site of the Dehner dry maar.rnrnThe basic observations made on the proxy record are also illustrated in the 10 m-wind vectors in the different model experiments under glacial conditions with different prescribed sea surface temperature patterns. Furthermore, the analysis of long-persisting east wind conditions in the AGCM data shows a stronger seasonality under glacial conditions: all the different experiments are characterized by an increase of the relative importance of the LEWIC during spring and summer. The different glacial experiments consistently show a shift from a long-lasting high over the Baltic Sea towards the NW, directly above the Scandinavian Ice Sheet, together with contemporary enhanced westerly circulation over the North Atlantic.rnrnThis thesis is a comprehensive analysis of atmospheric circulation patterns during the last glacial period. It has been possible to reconstruct important elements of the glacial paleo climate in Central Europe. While the proxy data from sediment cores lead to a binary signal of the wind direction changes (east versus west wind), a synoptic interpretation using atmospheric circulation models is successful. This shows a possible distribution of high and low pressure areas and thus the direction and strength of wind fields which have the capacity to transport dust. In conclusion, the combination of numerical models, to enhance understanding of processes in the climate system, with proxy data from the environmental record is the key to a comprehensive approach to paleo climatic reconstruction.rn

MODEL UPDATING AND STRUCTURAL HEALTH MONITORING OF HORIZONTAL AXIS WIND TURBINES VIA ADVANCED SPINNING FINITE ELEMENTS AND STOCHASTIC SUBSPACE IDENTIFICATION METHODS

Wind energy has been one of the most growing sectors of the nation’s renewable energy portfolio for the past decade, and the same tendency is being projected for the upcoming years given the aggressive governmental policies for the reduction of fossil fuel dependency. Great technological expectation and outstanding commercial penetration has shown the so called Horizontal Axis Wind Turbines (HAWT) technologies. Given its great acceptance, size evolution of wind turbines over time has increased exponentially. However, safety and economical concerns have emerged as a result of the newly design tendencies for massive scale wind turbine structures presenting high slenderness ratios and complex shapes, typically located in remote areas (e.g. offshore wind farms). In this regard, safety operation requires not only having first-hand information regarding actual structural dynamic conditions under aerodynamic action, but also a deep understanding of the environmental factors in which these multibody rotating structures operate. Given the cyclo-stochastic patterns of the wind loading exerting pressure on a HAWT, a probabilistic framework is appropriate to characterize the risk of failure in terms of resistance and serviceability conditions, at any given time. Furthermore, sources of uncertainty such as material imperfections, buffeting and flutter, aeroelastic damping, gyroscopic effects, turbulence, among others, have pleaded for the use of a more sophisticated mathematical framework that could properly handle all these sources of indetermination. The attainable modeling complexity that arises as a result of these characterizations demands a data-driven experimental validation methodology to calibrate and corroborate the model. For this aim, System Identification (SI) techniques offer a spectrum of well-established numerical methods appropriated for stationary, deterministic, and data-driven numerical schemes, capable of predicting actual dynamic states (eigenrealizations) of traditional time-invariant dynamic systems. As a consequence, it is proposed a modified data-driven SI metric based on the so called Subspace Realization Theory, now adapted for stochastic non-stationary and timevarying systems, as is the case of HAWT’s complex aerodynamics. Simultaneously, this investigation explores the characterization of the turbine loading and response envelopes for critical failure modes of the structural components the wind turbine is made of. In the long run, both aerodynamic framework (theoretical model) and system identification (experimental model) will be merged in a numerical engine formulated as a search algorithm for model updating, also known as Adaptive Simulated Annealing (ASA) process. This iterative engine is based on a set of function minimizations computed by a metric called Modal Assurance Criterion (MAC). In summary, the Thesis is composed of four major parts: (1) development of an analytical aerodynamic framework that predicts interacted wind-structure stochastic loads on wind turbine components; (2) development of a novel tapered-swept-corved Spinning Finite Element (SFE) that includes dampedgyroscopic effects and axial-flexural-torsional coupling; (3) a novel data-driven structural health monitoring (SHM) algorithm via stochastic subspace identification methods; and (4) a numerical search (optimization) engine based on ASA and MAC capable of updating the SFE aerodynamic model.

The Genesis Solar Wind Concentrator: Flight and Post-Flight Conditions and Modeling of Instrumental Fractionation

The Genesis mission Solar Wind Concentrator was built to enhance fluences of solar wind by an average of 20x over the 2.3 years that the mission exposed substrates to the solar wind. The Concentrator targets survived the hard landing upon return to Earth and were used to determine the isotopic composition of solar-wind—and hence solar—oxygen and nitrogen. Here we report on the flight operation of the instrument and on simulations of its performance. Concentration and fractionation patterns obtained from simulations are given for He, Li, N, O, Ne, Mg, Si, S, and Ar in SiC targets, and are compared with measured concentrations and isotope ratios for the noble gases. Carbon is also modeled for a Si target. Predicted differences in instrumental fractionation between elements are discussed. Additionally, as the Concentrator was designed only for ions ≤22 AMU, implications of analyzing elements as heavy as argon are discussed. Post-flight simulations of instrumental fractionation as a function of radial position on the targets incorporate solar-wind velocity and angular distributions measured in flight, and predict fractionation patterns for various elements and isotopes of interest. A tighter angular distribution, mostly due to better spacecraft spin stability than assumed in pre-flight modeling, results in a steeper isotopic fractionation gradient between the center and the perimeter of the targets. Using the distribution of solar-wind velocities encountered during flight, which are higher than those used in pre-flight modeling, results in elemental abundance patterns slightly less peaked at the center. Mean fractionations trend with atomic mass, with differences relative to the measured isotopes of neon of +4.1±0.9 ‰/amu for Li, between -0.4 and +2.8 ‰/amu for C, +1.9±0.7‰/amu for N, +1.3±0.4 ‰/amu for O, -7.5±0.4 ‰/amu for Mg, -8.9±0.6 ‰/amu for Si, and -22.0±0.7 ‰/amu for S (uncertainties reflect Monte Carlo statistics). The slopes of the fractionation trends depend to first order only on the relative differential mass ratio, Δ m/ m. This article and a companion paper (Reisenfeld et al. 2012, this issue) provide post-flight information necessary for the analysis of the Genesis solar wind samples, and thus serve to complement the Space Science Review volume, The Genesis Mission (v. 105, 2003).

Decade Wind and Wave Data for NW Iberia, Cabo Sillerio

Seafloor sediment mobilization on the inner Northwest Iberian continental shelf is caused largely by ocean surface waves. The temporal and spatial variability in the wave height, wave period, and wave direction has a profound effect on local sediment mobilization, leading to distinct sediment mobilization scenarios. Six grain-size specific sediment mobilization scenarios, representing seasonal average and storm conditions, were simulated with a physics-based numerical model. Model inputs included meteorological and oceanographic data in conjunction with seafloor grain-size and the shelf bathymetric data. The results show distinct seasonal variations, most importantly in wave height, leading to sediment mobilization, specifically on the inner shelf shallower than 30 m water depth where up to 49% of the shelf area is mobilized. Medium to severe storm events are modeled to mobilize up to 89% of the shelf area above 150 m water depth. The frequency of each of these seasonal and storm-related sediment mobilization scenarios is addressed using a decade of meteorological and oceanographic data. The temporal and spatial patterns of the modeled sediment mobilization scenarios are discussed in the context of existing geological and environmental processes and conditions to assist scientific, industrial and environmental efforts that are directly affected by sediment mobilization. Examples, where sediment mobilization plays a vital role, include seafloor nutrient advection, recurrent arrival of oil from oil-spill-laden seafloor sediment, and bottom trawling impacts.

Modelling wake effects in large wind farms in complex terrain: the problem, the methods and the issues

Computational fluid dynamic (CFD) methods are used in this paper to predict the power production from entire wind farms in complex terrain and to shed some light into the wake flow patterns. Two full three-dimensional Navier–Stokes solvers for incompressible fluid flow, employing k − ϵ and k − ω turbulence closures, are used. The wind turbines are modeled as momentum absorbers by means of their thrust coefficient through the actuator disk approach. Alternative methods for estimating the reference wind speed in the calculation of the thrust are tested. The work presented in this paper is part of the work being undertaken within the UpWind Integrated Project that aims to develop the design tools for next generation of large wind turbines. In this part of UpWind, the performance of wind farm and wake models is being examined in complex terrain environment where there are few pre-existing relevant measurements. The focus of the work being carried out is to evaluate the performance of CFD models in large wind farm applications in complex terrain and to examine the development of the wakes in a complex terrain environment.

Historical and contemporary mating patterns in remnant populations of the forest tree Fraxinus excelsior L.

Genetic variation at microsatellite markers was used to quantify genetic structure and mating behavior in a severely fragmented population of the wind-pollinated, wind-dispersed temperate tree Fraxinus excelsior in a deforested catchment in Scotland. Remnants maintain high levels of genetic diversity, comparable with those reported for continuous populations in southeastern Europe, and show low interpopulation differentiation (Theta = 0.080), indicating that historical gene exchange has not been limited (Nm = 3.48). We estimated from seeds collected from all trees producing fruits in three of five remnants that F. excelsior is predominantly outcrossing (t(m). = 0.971 +/- 0.028). Use of a neighborhood model approach to describe the relative contribution of local and long-distance pollen dispersal indicates that pollen gene flow into each of the three remnants is extensive (46-95%) and pollen dispersal has two components. The first is very localized and restricted to tens of meters around the mother trees. The second is a long-distance component with dispersal occurring over several kilometers. Effective dispersal distances, accounting for the distance and directionality to mother trees of sampled pollen donors, average 328 m and are greater than values reported for a continuous population. These results suggest that the opening of the landscape facilitates airborne pollen movement and may alleviate the expected detrimental genetic effects of fragmentation.

Patterns of painting in satin bowerbirds Ptilonorhynchus violaceus and males' responses to changes in their paint

Satin bowerbirds Ptilonorhynchus violaceus have an elaborate multi-component sexual display, some components of which have been extensively studied. We describe a relatively unstudied component of this display, bower painting, and birds' responses to manipulations of their paint. Males of this species focus their display around a stick bower constructed on the forest floor which they decorate with a variety of objects and paint. Painting involves a male masticating plant material and wiping the plant-saliva mixture onto the inside walls of the bower; during courtship visits to bowers, females nibble at this paint. We found that 93% of 53 males painted their bowers at our study site and the time males spent painting their bowers accounted for 24% of their time at the bower. We experimentally removed and added paint to bowers to test whether males respond to these changes in their paint. Males gave more advertisement calls and spent less time manipulating sticks at the bower when we added fresh wet paint to their bowers compared to older dried paint or a control treatment. They did not respond to the removal of paint from their bowers, perhaps because it was primarily older dried paint that was removed. We also found that males painted more frequently when there was measurable wind in their bowers, which could have degraded the quality of the signal. Our findings indicate that fresh wet paint is more important to males than older dried paint and, together with previous work at this site, suggest that paint may act as a signal to females. Given that females nibble bower sticks during courtship, we suggest that bower paint may function as a chemical sexual signal rather than a visual signal.

Estimating Bat and Bird Mortality Occurring at Wind Energy Turbines from Covariates and Carcass Searches Using Mixture Models

Environmental impacts of wind energy facilities increasingly cause concern, a central issue being bats and birds killed by rotor blades. Two approaches have been employed to assess collision rates: carcass searches and surveys of animals prone to collisions. Carcass searches can provide an estimate for the actual number of animals being killed but they offer little information on the relation between collision rates and, for example, weather parameters due to the time of death not being precisely known. In contrast, a density index of animals exposed to collision is sufficient to analyse the parameters influencing the collision rate. However, quantification of the collision rate from animal density indices (e.g. acoustic bat activity or bird migration traffic rates) remains difficult. We combine carcass search data with animal density indices in a mixture model to investigate collision rates. In a simulation study we show that the collision rates estimated by our model were at least as precise as conventional estimates based solely on carcass search data. Furthermore, if certain conditions are met, the model can be used to predict the collision rate from density indices alone, without data from carcass searches. This can reduce the time and effort required to estimate collision rates. We applied the model to bat carcass search data obtained at 30 wind turbines in 15 wind facilities in Germany. We used acoustic bat activity and wind speed as predictors for the collision rate. The model estimates correlated well with conventional estimators. Our model can be used to predict the average collision rate. It enables an analysis of the effect of parameters such as rotor diameter or turbine type on the collision rate. The model can also be used in turbine-specific curtailment algorithms that predict the collision rate and reduce this rate with a minimal loss of energy production.

Quantifying the impacts of urban wind sheltering on the building energy consumption

Common building energy modeling approaches do not account for the influence of surrounding neighborhood on the energy consumption patterns. This thesis develops a framework to quantify the neighborhood impact on a building energy consumption based on the local wind flow. The airflow in the neighborhood is predicted using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) in eight principal wind directions. The developed framework in this study benefits from wind multipliers to adjust the wind velocity encountering the target building. The input weather data transfers the adjusted wind velocities to the building energy model. In a case study, the CFD method is validated by comparing with on-site temperature measurements, and the building energy model is calibrated using utilities data. A comparison between using the adjusted and original weather data shows that the building energy consumption and air system heat gain decreased by 5% and 37%, respectively, while the cooling gain increased by 4% annually.

Statistical Analysis of Sea Surface Temperature and Chlorophyll-a Concentration Patterns in the Gulf of Tadjourah (Djibouti)

The sea surface temperature (SST) and chlorophyll-a concentration (CHL-a) were analysed in the Gulf of Tadjourah from two set of 8-day composite satellite data, respectively from 2008 to 2012 and from 2005 to 2011. A singular spectrum analysis (SSA) shows that the annual cycle of SST is strong (74.3% of variance) and consists of warming (April-October) and cooling (November-March) of about 2.5C than the long-term average. The semi-annual cycle captures only 14.6% of temperature variance and emphasises the drop of SST during July-August. Similarly, the annual cycle of CHL-a (29.7% of variance) depicts high CHL-a from June to October and low concentration from November to May. In addition, the first spatial empirical orthogonal function (EOF) of SST (93% of variance) shows that the seasonal warming/cooling is in phase across the whole study area but the southeastern part always remaining warmer or cooler. In contrast to the SST, the first EOF of CHL-a (54.1% of variance) indicates the continental shelf in phase opposition with the offshore area in winter during which the CHL-a remains sequestrated in the coastal area particularly in the south-east and in the Ghoubet Al-Kharab Bay. Inversely during summer, higher CHL-a quantities appear in the offshore waters. In order to investigate processes generating these patterns, a multichannel spectrum analysis was applied to a set of oceanic (SST, CHL-a) and atmospheric parameters (wind speed, air temperature and air specific humidity). This analysis shows that the SST is well correlated to the atmospheric parameters at an annual scale. The windowed cross correlation indicates that this correlation is significant only from October to May. During this period, the warming was related to the solar heating of the surface water when the wind is low (April-May and October) while the cooling (November-March) was linked to the strong and cold North-East winds and to convective mixing. The summer drop in SST followed by a peak of CHL-a, seems strongly correlated to the upwelling. The second EOF modes of SST and CHL-a explain respectively 1.3% and 5% of the variance and show an east-west gradient during winter that is reversed during summer. This work showed that the seasonal signals have a wide spatial influence and dominate the variability of the SST and CHL-a while the east-west gradient are specific for the Gulf of Tadjourah and seem induced by the local wind modulated by the topography.

Changes in phytoplankton composition in response to tides, wind-induced mixing conditions, and freshwater outflows in an urbanised estuarine complex

Estudos recentes na baía de Santos (sudeste do Brasil), localizada em um sistema estuarino altamente urbanizado, mostraram o aumento de espécies fitoplanctônicas potencialmente nocivas. Apesar da importância da previsão das florações algais nocivas, é difícil determinar a estrutura da comunidade fitoplanctônica em ambientes extremamente dinâmicos. O presente estudo analisa florações dominadas pelo microfitoplâncton e sua relação com variáveis físicas e meteorológicas, a fim de determinar padrões associados às marés e às estações do ano. Foram comparadas oito situações e obtidos cinco cenários de dominância relacionados aos ventos, marés e pluviosidade: i) Surfers, diatomáceas associadas à zona de surfe, de alta energia; ii) Sinkers, diatomáceas de tamanho grande que ocorrem nas marés de sizígia, depois de períodos de alta pluviosidade; iii) Opportunistic mixers, diatomáceas pequenas ou alongadas, formadoras de cadeia, que ocorrem durante períodos de quadratura; iv) Local mixers, diatomáceas e dinoflagelados microplanctônicos que foram abundantes em todas as 298 estações amostradas, e v) Mixotrophic dinoflagellates, que ocorrem após intensas descargas estuarinas. Os resultados sugerem uma alteração no padrão temporal de algumas espécies formadoras de florações, enquanto outras apresentaram abundâncias superiores aos valores seguros para a saúde publica. Esta abordagem ilustra também os possíveis impactos de variações na descarga de água doce em estuários altamente eutrofizados.

Recruitment patterns and processes of coastal fish species in a temperate rocky reef

Tese de Doutoramento, Ciências do Mar, da Terra e do Ambiente, Ramo: Ciências do Mar, Especialização em Ecologia Marinha, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, Universidade do Algarve, 2016