The Permanent Income Hypothesis: A Test on Czech Privatisation

Since the late eighties, economists have been regarding the transition from command to market economies in Central and Eastern Europe with intense interest. In addition to studying the transition per se, they have begun using the region as a testing ground on which to investigate the validity of certain classic economic propositions. In his research, comprising three articles written in English and totalling 40 pages, Mr. Hanousek uses the so-called "Czech national experiment" (voucher privatisation scheme) to test the permanent income hypothesis (PIH). He took as his inspiration Kreinin's recommendation: "Since data concerning the behaviour of windfall income recipients is relatively scanty, and since such data can constitute an important test of the permanent income hypothesis, it is of interest to bring to bear on the hypothesis whatever information is available". Mr. Hanousek argues that, since the transfer of property to Czech citizens from 1992 to 1994 through the voucher scheme was not anticipated, it can be regarded as windfall income. The average size of the windfall was more than three month's salary and over 60 percent of the Czech population received this unexpected income. Furthermore, there are other reasons for conducting such an analysis in the Czech Republic. Firstly, the privatisation process took place quickly. Secondly, both the economy and consumer behaviour have been very stable. Thirdly, out of a total population of 10 million Czech citizens, an astonishing 6 million, that is, virtually every household, participated in the scheme. Thus Czech voucher privatisation provides a sample for testing the PIH almost equivalent to a full population, thus avoiding problems with the distribution of windfalls. Compare this, for instance with the fact that only 4% of the Israeli urban population received personal restitution from Germany, while the number of veterans who received the National Service Life Insurance Dividends amounted to less than 9% of the US population and were concentrated in certain age groups. But to begin with, Mr. Hanousek considers the question of whether the public percieves the transfer from the state to individual as an increase in net wealth. It can be argued that the state is only divesting itself of assets that would otherwise provide a future source of transfers. According to this argument, assigning these assets to individuals creates an offsetting change in the present value of potential future transfers so that individuals are no better off after the transfer. Mr. Hanousek disagrees with this approach. He points out that a change in the ownership of inefficient state-owned enterprises should lead to higher efficiency, which alone increases the value of enterprises and creates a windfall increase in citizens' portfolios. More importantly, the state and individuals had very different preferences during the transition. Despite government propaganda, it is doubtful that citizens of former communist countries viewed government-owned enterprises as being operated in the citizens' best interest. Moreover, it is unlikely that the public fully comprehended the sophisticated links between the state budget, state-owned enterprises, and transfers to individuals. Finally, the transfers were not equal across the population. Mr. Hanousek conducted a survey on 1263 individuals, dividing them into four monthly earnings categories. After determining whether the respondent had participated in the voucher process, he asked those who had how much of what they received from voucher privatisation had been (a) spent on goods and services, (b) invested elsewhere, (c) transferred to newly emerging pension funds, (d) given to a family member, and (e) retained in their original form as an investment. Both the mean and the variance of the windfall rise with income. He obtained similar results with respect to education, where the mean (median) windfall for those with a basic school education was 13,600 Czech Crowns (CZK), a figure that increased to 15,000 CZK for those with a high school education without exams, 19,900 CZK for high school graduates with exams, and 24,600 CZK for university graduates. Mr. Hanousek concludes that it can be argued that higher income (and better educated) groups allocated their vouchers or timed the disposition of their shares better. He turns next to an analysis of how respondents reported using their windfalls. The key result is that only a relatively small number of individuals reported spending on goods. Overall, the results provide strong support for the permanent income hypothesis, the only apparent deviation being the fact that both men and women aged 26 to 35 apparently consume more than they should if the windfall were annuitised. This finding is still fully consistent with the PIH, however, if this group is at a stage in their life-cycle where, without the windfall, they would be borrowing to finance consumption associated with family formation etc. Indeed, the PIH predicts that individuals who would otherwise borrow to finance consumption would consume the windfall up to the level equal to the annuitised fraction of the increase in lifetime income plus the full amount of the previously planned borrowing for consumption. Greater consumption would then be financed, not from investing the windfall, but from avoidance of future repayment obligations for debts that would have been incurred without the windfall.

A Gift is not always a Gift: Heterogeneity and Long Term Effects in a Gift Exchange Experiment

We study gift exchange in a field experiment where a random subsample of participants in the Swiss Labour Force Survey received vouchers to be used in adult training. Actual voucher redemption can be traced, giving us the unique opportunity to study whether gift exchange in the form of participation in future rounds of the survey depends on the perceived usefulness of the gift. The group of voucher recipients as a whole has significantly higher response rates. There is considerable heterogeneity, however. Our results point to a long-lasting gift exchange relationship only for the subgroup that redeemed their vouchers.

Tiebout Choice and the Voucher

This paper examines who is likely to gain and who is likely to lose under a universal voucher program. Following Epple and Romano (1998, 2003), and Nechyba (2000, 2003a), we focus on the idea that gains and losses under a universal voucher depend on two effects: changes in peer group composition and changes in housing values. We show that the direction and magnitude of each of these effects hinges critically on market structure, i.e., the amount of school choice that already exists in the public sector. In markets with little or no Tiebout choice, potential changes in peer group composition create an incentive for high-socioeconomic (SES) households to vote for the voucher and for low-SES households to vote against voucher. In contrast, in markets with significant Tiebout choice, potential changes in housing values create an incentive for high-SES households to vote against the voucher and for low-SES households to vote for the voucher. Using data on vote outcomes from California's 2000 voucher initiative, we find evidence consistent with those predictions.

A descriptive analysis of the consumers at farm stands outside WIC clinics

Because fruit and vegetable intake remains low in low-income populations, the attention of public health researchers has focused on different strategies to reach this population. One possible method of reaching low income populations is through government food assistance programs like the WIC's Farmers Market Nutrition Program (FMNP). This program provides vouchers to WIC recipients that are redeemable only at farmers' markets. In the summer of 2010, two farm stands near WIC clinics in Austin were surveyed in order to establish socio-demographic characteristics of the clientele of the markets. The overall purpose of this pilot study was to describe the clientele of the markets and to examine associations between food insecurity, acculturation, socio-demographic factors, and farmers' market participants' fruit and vegetable intake. The sample was a convenience sample of farmers' market customers. One hundred study participants completed self-administered surveys. Independent t-tests were used to explore the differences in means of fruit and vegetable intake according to acculturation and food insecurity levels. The overall mean (SD) of daily fruit and vegetable intake was 4.20±2.69 for customers of both markets. Significant differences were reported between the two markets in overall fruit and vegetable intake and specifically in the following: 100% juice (P=.023), fruit consumption (P=.028), green salad (P=.003), and salsa (P=.044). The differences showed that customers at the market in a more busy location were on average reporting eating more fruits and vegetables than customers at another market that was located in a more secluded location. When examined by level of food security, individuals who were more food secure consumed more fruit (P=.016). When examined by level of acculturation, the overall fruit and vegetable intake was not significantly different between levels of acculturation. The overall findings in this report suggest that the population at these markets consists of individuals who are food insecure and on government assistance programs. While there were no significant differences between fruit and vegetable intake, acculturation and food insecurity, this report suggests the need for culturally tailored interventions that serve the Hispanic population and would assist this population to become more food secure.^

Valorização da flora de Cusseque e Caiúndo no centro e sul de Angola e avaliação da biomassa lenhosa utilizada para combustível e construção

Tese de mestrado em Biologia da Conservação, apresentada à Universidade de Lisboa, através da Faculdade de Ciências, 2016

Will income inequality cause a middle-income trap in Asia? Bruegel Working Paper 2013/06, 10 October 2013

The Asian economy is expected to realise favourable growth during the first half of this century, but there is no guarantee. There is a discussion about a ‘middle-income trap’, which refers to a country that has realised rapid growth to become a middle-income country but is unable to grow further. A middle-income trap could occur not only if there is a delay in shifting the economy toward a productivity-driven structure, but also if there is a worsening of income distribution.We consider this in line with the theories of development economics and through a quantitative analysis. The relationship between income inequality and the trap can be explained by the Kuznets hypothesis and the basic-needs approach. Our quantitative analysis supports the Kuznets hypothesis, and indicates that,although a low-income country can accelerate its economic growth with the worsening of income distribution as an engine, a middle income country would experience a decreasing growth rate if it fails to narrow the income gap between the top and bottom income groups. The results also show that the basic-needs approach is also applicable in practice, and imply that the improvement of access to secondary education is important. A sensitivity analysis for three Asian upper-middle-income countries(China, Malaysia and Thailand) also shows that the situation related to a middle-income trap is worse than average in China and Malaysia. These two countries, according to the result of the sensitivity analysis, should urgently improve access to secondary education and should implement income redistribution measures to develop high-tech industries, before their demographic dividends expire. Income redistribution includes the narrowing of rural urban income disparities, benefits to low-income individuals, direct income transfers, vouchers or free provision of education and health-care, and so on, but none of these are simple to implement.

The ground skink, scincella lateralis, in Illinois : range and possible recent history /

"September 2006."

Creative credits:a randomized controlled industrial policy experiment

This report examines the results of a pilot study, which used a method of evaluation called randomised control trials (RCTs) to see if a popular business support scheme called Creative Credits worked effectively. The pilot study, which began in Manchester in 2009, was structured so that vouchers, or 'Creative Credits', would be randomly allocated to small and medium-sized businesses applying to invest in creative projects such as developing websites, video production and creative marketing campaigns, to see if they had a real effect on innovation. The research found that the firms who were awarded Creative Credits enjoyed a short-term boost in their innovation and sales growth in the six months following completion of their creative projects. However, the positive effects were not sustained, and after 12 months there was no longer a statistically significant difference between the groups that received the credits and those that didn’t. The report argues that these results would have remained hidden using the normal evaluation methods used by government, and calls for RCTs to be used more widely when evaluating policies to support business growth.

Sales Promotion in Hotels:A British Perspective

In their article - Sales Promotion In Hotels: A British Perspective - by Francis Buttle, Lecturer, Department of Hotel, Restaurant, and Travel Administration, University of Massachusetts and Ini Akpabio, Property Manager, Trusthouse Forte, Britain, Buttle and Akpabio initially state: “Sales promotion in hotels is in its infancy. Other industries, particularly consumer goods manufacturing, have long recognized the contribution that sales promotion can make to the cost-effective achievement of marketing objectives. Sales promotion activities in hotels have remained largely uncharted. The authors define, identify and classify these hotel sales promotion activities to understand their function and form, and to highlight any scope for improvement.” The authors begin their discussion by attempting to define what the phrase sales promotion [SP] actually means. “The Institute of Sales Promotion regards sales promotions as “adding value, usually of a temporary nature, to a product or service in order to persuade the end user to purchase that particular brand as opposed to a competitive brand,” the authors offer. Williams, however, describes sales promotions more broadly as “short term tactical marketing tools which are used to achieve specific marketing objectives during a defined time period,” Buttle and Akpabio present with attribution. “The most significant difference between these two viewpoints is that Williams does not limit his definition to activities which are targeted at the consumer,” is their educated view. A lot of the discussion is centered on the differences in the collective marketing-promotional mix. “…it is not always easy to definitively categorize promotional activity,” Buttle and Akpabio say. “For example, in personal selling, a sales promotion such as a special bonus offer may be used to close the sale; an advertisement may be sales promotional in character in that it offers discounts.” Are promotion and marketing distinguishable as two separate entities? “…not only may there be conceptual confusion between components of the promotional mix, but there is sometimes a blurring of the boundaries between the elements of the marketing mix,” the authors suggest. “There are several reasons why SP is particularly suitable for use in hotels: seasonality, increasing competitiveness, asset characteristics, cost characteristics, increased use of channel intermediaries, new product launches, and deal proneness.” Buttle and Akpabio offer their insight on each of these segments. The authors also want you to know that SP customer applications are not the only game in town, SP trade applications are just as essential. Bonuses, enhanced commission rates, and vouchers are but a few examples of trade SP. The research for the article was compiled from several sources including, mail surveys, telephone surveys, personal interviews, trade magazines and newspapers; essentially in the U.K.

Do Peers Affect Student Achievement in China's Secondary Schools (Working Paper 35)

Peer effects have figured prominently in debates on school vouchers, desegregation, ability tracking and anti-poverty programs. Compelling evidence of their existence remains scarce for plaguing endogeneity issues such as selection bias and the reflection problem. This paper is among the first to firmly establish the link between peer performance and student achievement, using a unique dataset from China. We find strong evidence that peer effects exist and operate in a positive and nonlinear manner; reducing the variation of peer performance increases achievement; and our semi-parametric estimates clarify the tradeoffs facing policymakers in exploiting positive peers effects to increase future achievement.

The elderly care and domestic services sector during the recent economic crisis. The case of Italy, Spain and France.

Over the past ten years in Italy, Spain and France, the demographic pressure and the increasing women’s participation in labour market have fuelled the expansion of the private provision of domestic and care services. In order to ensure the difficult balance between affordability, quality and job creation, each countries’ response has been different. France has developed policies to sustain the demand side introducing instruments such as vouchers and fiscal schemes, since the mid of the 2000s. Massive public funding has contributed to foster a regular market of domestic and care services and France is often presented as a “best practices” of those policies aimed at encouraging a regular private sector. Conversely in Italy and Spain, the development of a private domestic and care market has been mostly uncontrolled and without a coherent institutional design: the osmosis between a large informal market and the regular private care sector has been ensured on the supply side by migrant workers’ regularizations or the introduction of new employment regulations . The analysis presented in this paper aims to describe the response of these different policies to the challenges imposed by the current economic crisis. In dealing with the retrenchment of public expenditure and the reduced households’ purchasing power, Italy, Spain and France are experiencing greater difficulties in ensuring a regular private sector of domestic and care services. In light of that, the paper analyses the recent economic conjuncture presenting some assumptions about the future risk of deeper inequalities rising along with the increase of the process of marketization of domestic and care services in all the countries under analysis.    

Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a physical activity loyalty scheme for behaviour change maintenance: a cluster randomised controlled trial

Background
Increasing physical activity in the workplace can provide employee physical and mental health benefits, and employer economic benefits through reduced absenteeism and increased productivity. The workplace is an opportune setting to encourage habitual activity. However, there is limited evidence on effective behaviour change interventions that lead to maintained physical activity. This study aims to address this gap and help build the necessary evidence base for effective, and cost-effective, workplace interventions

Methods/design
This cluster randomised control trial will recruit 776 office-based employees from public sector organisations in Belfast and Lisburn city centres, Northern Ireland. Participants will be randomly allocated by cluster to either the Intervention Group or Control Group (waiting list control). The 6-month intervention consists of rewards (retail vouchers, based on similar principles to high street loyalty cards), feedback and other evidence-based behaviour change techniques. Sensors situated in the vicinity of participating workplaces will promote and monitor minutes of physical activity undertaken by participants. Both groups will complete all outcome measures. The primary outcome is steps per day recorded using a pedometer (Yamax Digiwalker CW-701) for 7 consecutive days at baseline, 6, 12 and 18 months. Secondary outcomes include health, mental wellbeing, quality of life, work absenteeism and presenteeism, and use of healthcare resources. Process measures will assess intervention “dose”, website usage, and intervention fidelity. An economic evaluation will be conducted from the National Health Service, employer and retailer perspective using both a cost-utility and cost-effectiveness framework. The inclusion of a discrete choice experiment will further generate values for a cost-benefit analysis. Participant focus groups will explore who the intervention worked for and why, and interviews with retailers will elucidate their views on the sustainability of a public health focused loyalty card scheme.

Discussion
The study is designed to maximise the potential for roll-out in similar settings, by engaging the public sector and business community in designing and delivering the intervention. We have developed a sustainable business model using a ‘points’ based loyalty platform, whereby local businesses ‘sponsor’ the incentive (retail vouchers) in return for increased footfall to their business.

Utilização do “cheque-dentista” por parte de crianças de 10 e 13 anos no ano letivo 2013/2014 em duas escolas no agrupamento de Vizela

Introdução: Uma grande parte de todas as consultas de medicina dentária realizadas em Portugal ocorre em prestadores de natureza privada, consequentemente a acessibilidade, principalmente entre os estatutos socioeconomicamente mais desfavorecido é dificultada. As crianças e os jovens são um grupo especial da população que necessita de particular atenção e proteção por parte dos serviços governamentais, investir na sua saúde e no seu bem‐estar garante ganhos de saúde ao longo das suas vidas. Tendo isto em conta, foi criado o Programa Nacional de Promoção de Saúde Oral (PNPSO). Os objetivos principais deste programa consistem na redução da incidência de doenças orais, melhoria dos conhecimentos e comportamentos sobre saúde oral e a promoção da equidade na prestação de cuidados de saúde oral. Desta forma são emitidos cheques-dentista para determinados grupos populacionais, sendo eles crianças e jovens com idade inferior a 16 anos, gravidas a ser seguidas no SNS, beneficiários do complemento solidário para idosos, portadores de Sida/VIH, e consultas no âmbito da prevenção do cancro oral. Participantes e Métodos: Realizou-se um estudo observacional transversal onde a população em análise foi constituída pelos responsáveis dos alunos de 10 e 13 anos abrangidos pelo PNPSO que no ano letivo 2013/2014 frequentaram o Colégio de Vizela e o Instituto Silva Monteiro. A recolha de dados foi feita através de um inquérito realizado por escrito com questões relativas à utilização dos documentos no âmbito do PNPSO. Em ambas as situações esteve presente o consentimento informado e garantiu-se a total confidencialidade dos dados. Os dados recolhidos neste estudo foram submetidos a uma análise estatística recorrendo ao software IBM SPSS Statistics v22. Resultados: Na população analisada quando questionados “O seu educando já tinha tido alguma consulta de medicina dentária?” 88,5% responderam “sim”, desses a maioria referiu que o médico dentista onde essas consultas foram realizadas estava incluído no programa (81,5%). Uma grande parte dos inquiridos referiu a escola como fator que lhes deu a conhecer o programa (sendo que 90,2% incluíram essa opção nas suas respostas). Quando questionados se fizeram tratamentos fora do programa 54,9% responderam que não. Em relação à utilização do(s) cheque(s)-dentista a que tiveram direito, 86,1% dos beneficiários referiu ter utilizado, desses, 67,6% mencionou a conclusão dos tratamentos com as consultas no âmbito do programa. Quando questionados o que os levou a escolher o consultório onde os tratamentos incluídos no PNPSO foram realizados, 57,9% do total de respostas foram para o “conhecimento prévio do médico dentista”. Na opinião de grande parte dos inquiridos (97,5%), o cheque-dentista é um incentivo para cuidados de saúde oral. No futuro, 99,2% dos beneficiários referiram que irão realizar os tratamentos a que tenham direito com o PNPSO. Conclusão: Com este estudo foi possível observar que grande parte dos beneficiários analisados utilizou o(s) cheque(s)-dentista a que tiveram direito. É possível observar que a maioria dos utentes referiram ter beneficiado com o programa, e afirmam que este constitui um meio de promoção e prevenção de doenças orais futuras e um incentivo para os cuidados de saúde oral. O processo de divulgação do PNPSO foi na sua maioria realizado pelas escolas, em que ambas se revelaram competentes a dar a conhecer o programa aos beneficiários.

Coleman’s third report

The article analyses the (third) Coleman Report on private and public schools. The report scrutinises the relationship between private and public schools and shows that private school students show better academic achievement. Coleman concluded that these findings provided a strong argument in favour of public financial support for private schools. However, he identified a number of school characteristics that he believed to be related to student achievement. According to his analysis, these characteristics were not limited to private schools; public schools exhibiting the same characteristics also had good results. Coleman interpreted the available data in favour of financial aid to private schools, although this was not the only possible interpretation. An alternative conclusion would have been to encourage these characteristics in public schools. Why did Coleman disregard this possibility? Why did he deviate from his usual scientific rigour? The present article suggests that there appear to be two reasons for the narrow interpretation of the relationship between public and private schools in Coleman's third report. The first lies in Coleman's notion of contemporary society as a constructed system in which every individual actor holds a place in the structure and requires incentives in order to act to the benefit of society. In the case of education, the goal of the institution is to ensure the high cognitive achievement of students, and the incentive is related to choice and competition. The second reason is related to Coleman's vision of sociology as a discipline aiding the construction of an effective society. (DIPF/Orig.)

The impact of social housing on health in Glasgow and Baltimore, 1930-1980

This dissertation seeks to discern the impact of social housing on public health in the cities of Glasgow, Scotland and Baltimore, Maryland in the twentieth century. Additionally, this dissertation seeks to compare the impact of social housing policy implementation in both cities, to determine the efficacy of social housing as a tool of public health betterment. This is accomplished through the exposition and evaluation of the housing and health trends of both cities over the course of the latter half of the twentieth century. Both the cities of Glasgow and Baltimore had long struggled with both overcrowded slum districts and relatively unhealthy populations. Early commentators had noticed the connection between insanitary housing and poor health, and sought a solution to both of these problems. Beginning in the 1940s, housing reform advocates (self-dubbed ‘housers') pressed for the development of social housing, or municipally-controlled housing for low-income persons, to alleviate the problems of overcrowded slum dwellings in both cities. The impetus for social housing was twofold: to provide affordable housing to low-income persons and to provide housing that would facilitate healthy lives for tenants. Whether social housing achieved these goals is the crux of this dissertation. In the immediate years following the Second World War, social housing was built en masse in both cities. Social housing provided a reprieve from slum housing for both working-class Glaswegians and Baltimoreans. In Baltimore specifically, social housing provided accommodation for the city’s Black residents, who found it difficult to occupy housing in White neighbourhoods. As the years progressed, social housing developments in both cities faced unexpected problems. In Glasgow, stable tenant flight (including both middle class and skilled artisan workers)+ resulted in a concentration of poverty in the city’s housing schemes, and in Baltimore, a flight of White tenants of all income levels created a new kind of state subsidized segregated housing stock. The implementation of high-rise tower blocks in both cities, once heralded as a symbol of housing modernity, also faced increased scrutiny in the 1960s and 1970s. During the period of 1940-1980, before policy makers in the United States began to eschew social housing for subsidized private housing vouchers and community based housing associations had truly taken off in Britain, public health professionals conducted academic studies of the impact of social housing tenancy on health. Their findings provide the evidence used to assess the second objective of social housing provision, as outlined above. Put simply, while social housing units were undoubtedly better equipped than slum dwellings in both cities, the public health investigations into the impact of rehousing slum dwellers into social housing revealed that social housing was not a panacea for each city’s social and public health problems.