958 resultados para Unobserved-component model
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We use regulatory focus theory to derive specific predictions regarding the differential relationships between regulatory focus and commitment. We estimated a structural equation model using a sample of 520 private and public sector employees and found in line with our hypotheses that (a) promotion focus related more strongly to affective commitment than prevention focus, (b) prevention focus related more strongly to continuance commitment than promotion focus, (c) promotion and prevention focus had equally strong effects on normative commitment. Implications of these findings for the three-component model of commitment, especially the ‘dual nature’ of normative commitment, as well as implications for human resources management and leadership are discussed.
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Algae are a new potential biomass for energy production but there is limited information on their pyrolysis and kinetics. The main aim of this thesis is to investigate the pyrolytic behaviour and kinetics of Chlorella vulgaris, a green microalga. Under pyrolysis conditions, these microalgae show their comparable capabilities to terrestrial biomass for energy and chemicals production. Also, the evidence from a preliminary pyrolysis by the intermediate pilot-scale reactor supports the applicability of these microalgae in the existing pyrolysis reactor. Thermal decomposition of Chlorella vulgaris occurs in a wide range of temperature (200-550°C) with multi-step reactions. To evaluate the kinetic parameters of their pyrolysis process, two approaches which are isothermal and non-isothermal experiments are applied in this work. New developed Pyrolysis-Mass Spectrometry (Py-MS) technique has the potential for isothermal measurements with a short run time and small sample size requirement. The equipment and procedure are assessed by the kinetic evaluation of thermal decomposition of polyethylene and lignocellulosic derived materials (cellulose, hemicellulose, and lignin). In the case of non-isothermal experiment, Thermogravimetry- Mass Spectrometry (TG-MS) technique is used in this work. Evolved gas analysis provides the information on the evolution of volatiles and these data lead to a multi-component model. Triplet kinetic values (apparent activation energy, pre-exponential factor, and apparent reaction order) from isothermal experiment are 57 (kJ/mol), 5.32 (logA, min-1), 1.21-1.45; 9 (kJ/mol), 1.75 (logA, min-1), 1.45 and 40 (kJ/mol), 3.88 (logA, min-1), 1.45- 1.15 for low, middle and high temperature region, respectively. The kinetic parameters from non-isothermal experiment are varied depending on the different fractions in algal biomass when the range of apparent activation energies are 73-207 (kJ/mol); pre-exponential factor are 5-16 (logA, min-1); and apparent reaction orders are 1.32–2.00. The kinetic procedures reported in this thesis are able to be applied to other kinds of biomass and algae for future works.
Changes in mass and nutrient content of wood during decomposition in a south Florida mangrove forest
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1. Large pools of dead wood in mangrove forests following disturbances such as hurricanes may influence nutrient fluxes. We hypothesized that decomposition of wood of mangroves from Florida, USA (Avicennia germinans, Laguncularia racemosa and Rhizophora mangle), and the consequent nutrient dynamics, would depend on species, location in the forest relative to freshwater and marine influences and whether the wood was standing, lying on the sediment surface or buried. 2. Wood disks (8–10 cm diameter, 1 cm thick) from each species were set to decompose at sites along the Shark River, either buried in the sediment, on the soil surface or in the air (above both the soil surface and high tide elevation). 3. A simple exponential model described the decay of wood in the air, and neither species nor site had any effect on the decay coefficient during the first 13 months of decomposition. 4. Over 28 months of decomposition, buried and surface disks decomposed following a two-component model, with labile and refractory components. Avicennia germinans had the largest labile component (18 ± 2% of dry weight), while Laguncularia racemosa had the lowest (10 ± 2%). Labile components decayed at rates of 0.37–23.71% month−1, while refractory components decayed at rates of 0.001–0.033% month−1. Disks decomposing on the soil surface had higher decay rates than buried disks, but both were higher than disks in the air. All species had similar decay rates of the labile and refractory components, but A. germinans exhibited faster overall decay because of a higher proportion of labile components. 5. Nitrogen content generally increased in buried and surface disks, but there was little change in N content of disks in the air over the 2-year study. Between 17% and 68% of total phosphorus in wood leached out during the first 2 months of decomposition, with buried disks having the greater losses, P remaining constant or increasing slightly thereafter. 6. Newly deposited wood from living trees was a short-term source of N for the ecosystem but, by the end of 2 years, had become a net sink. Wood, however, remained a source of P for the ecosystem. 7. As in other forested ecosystems, coarse woody debris can have a significant impact on carbon and nutrient dynamics in mangrove forests. The prevalence of disturbances, such as hurricanes, that can deposit large amounts of wood on the forest floor accentuates the importance of downed wood in these forests.
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Basement intersected in Holes 525A, 528, and 527 on the Walvis Ridge consists of submarine basalt flows and pillows with minor intercalated sediments. These holes are situated on the crest and mid- and lower NW flank of a NNW-SSE-trending ridge block which would have closely paralleled the paleo mid-ocean ridge. The basalts were erupted approximately 70 Ma, a date consistent with formation at the paleo mid-ocean ridge. The basalt types vary from aphyric quartz tholeiites on the Ridge crest to highly Plagioclase phyric olivine tholeiites on the flank. These show systematic differences in incompatible trace element and isotopic composition, and many element and isotope ratio pairs form systematic trends with the Ridge crest basalts at one end and the highly phyric Ridge flank basalts at the other. The low 143Nd/144Nd (0.51238) and high 87Sr/86Sr (0.70512) ratios of the Ridge crest basalts suggest derivation from an old Nd/Sm and Rb/Sr enriched mantle source. This isotopic signature is similar to that of alkaline basalts on Tristan da Cunha but offset by somewhat lower 143Nd/144Nd values. The isotopic ratio trends may be extrapolated beyond the Ridge flank basalts (which have 143Nd/144Nd of 0.51270 and 87Sr/86Sr of 0.70417) in the direction of typical MORB compositions. These isotopic correlations are equally consistent with mixing of depleted and enriched end-member melts or partial melting of an inhomogeneous, variably enriched mantle source. However, observed Zr-Ba-Nb-Y interelement relationships are inconsistent with any simple two-component model of magma mixing or partial melting. They also preclude extensive involvement of depleted (N-type) MORB material or its mantle sources in the petrogenesis of Walvis Ridge basalts.
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During 2012-2013, the homicide rate in El Salvador came down from 69.9 to 42.2 per 100,000 population following a truce between the leaders of the two major gangs, “Mara Salvatrucha” and “Barrio 18”, and government. But despite the apparent successes of the truce, it was speculated that the drop in murders could have been due to the killers simply hid the bodies of their victims. This paper aims at determining whether gangs effectively disappeared their victims to cut down the official counts of murders, or they committed these crimes for other reasons. The results from this study suggest that Salvadoran gangs had been using disappearance as a resource to gain sustained social control among residents of already gang-dominated areas, that together with homicide, disappearance is part of a process of territorial spread and strategic strengthening by which these groups are enhancing their capabilities to interfere in the alliances of Mexican drug trafficking organizations with Central American criminal organizations specializing in the transshipment of drugs and in providing access to local markets to distribute and sell drugs. Our findings show that the risk for disappearance has been large even before the truce was in place and that actually, it continues as such and going through a process of geographic expansion.
Epidemiology and genetic architecture of blood pressure: a family based study of Generation Scotland
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Hypertension is a major risk factor for cardiovascular disease and mortality, and a growing global public health concern, with up to one-third of the world’s population affected. Despite the vast amount of evidence for the benefits of blood pressure (BP) lowering accumulated to date, elevated BP is still the leading risk factor for disease and disability worldwide. It is well established that hypertension and BP are common complex traits, where multiple genetic and environmental factors contribute to BP variation. Furthermore, family and twin studies confirmed the genetic component of BP, with a heritability estimate in the range of 30-50%. Contemporary genomic tools enabling the genotyping of millions of genetic variants across the human genome in an efficient, reliable, and cost-effective manner, has transformed hypertension genetics research. This is accompanied by the presence of international consortia that have offered unprecedentedly large sample sizes for genome-wide association studies (GWASs). While GWAS for hypertension and BP have identified more than 60 loci, variants in these loci are associated with modest effects on BP and in aggregate can explain less than 3% of the variance in BP. The aims of this thesis are to study the genetic and environmental factors that influence BP and hypertension traits in the Scottish population, by performing several genetic epidemiological analyses. In the first part of this thesis, it aims to study the burden of hypertension in the Scottish population, along with assessing the familial aggregation and heritialbity of BP and hypertension traits. In the second part, it aims to validate the association of common SNPs reported in the large GWAS and to estimate the variance explained by these variants. In this thesis, comprehensive genetic epidemiology analyses were performed on Generation Scotland: Scottish Family Health Study (GS:SFHS), one of the largest population-based family design studies. The availability of clinical, biological samples, self-reported information, and medical records for study participants has allowed several assessments to be performed to evaluate factors that influence BP variation in the Scottish population. Of the 20,753 subjects genotyped in the study, a total of 18,470 individuals (grouped into 7,025 extended families) passed the stringent quality control (QC) criteria and were available for all subsequent analysis. Based on the BP-lowering treatment exposure sources, subjects were further classified into two groups. First, subjects with both a self-reported medications (SRMs) history and electronic-prescription records (EPRs; n =12,347); second, all the subjects with at least one medication history source (n =18,470). In the first group, the analysis showed a good concordance between SRMs and EPRs (kappa =71%), indicating that SRMs can be used as a surrogate to assess the exposure to BP-lowering medication in GS:SFHS participants. Although both sources suffer from some limitations, SRMs can be considered the best available source to estimate the drug exposure history in those without EPRs. The prevalence of hypertension was 40.8% with higher prevalence in men (46.3%) compared to women (35.8%). The prevalence of awareness, treatment and controlled hypertension as defined by the study definition were 25.3%, 31.2%, and 54.3%, respectively. These findings are lower than similar reported studies in other populations, with the exception of controlled hypertension prevalence, which can be considered better than other populations. Odds of hypertension were higher in men, obese or overweight individuals, people with a parental history of hypertension, and those living in the most deprived area of Scotland. On the other hand, deprivation was associated with higher odds of treatment, awareness and controlled hypertension, suggesting that people living in the most deprived area may have been receiving better quality of care, or have higher comorbidity levels requiring greater engagement with doctors. These findings highlight the need for further work to improve hypertension management in Scotland. The family design of GS:SFHS has allowed family-based analysis to be performed to assess the familial aggregation and heritability of BP and hypertension traits. The familial correlation of BP traits ranged from 0.07 to 0.20, and from 0.18 to 0.34 for parent-offspring pairs and sibling pairs, respectively. A higher correlation of BP traits was observed among first-degree relatives than other types of relative pairs. A variance-component model that was adjusted for sex, body mass index (BMI), age, and age-squared was used to estimate heritability of BP traits, which ranged from 24% to 32% with pulse pressure (PP) having the lowest estimates. The genetic correlation between BP traits showed a high correlation between systolic (SBP), diastolic (DBP) and mean arterial pressure (MAP) (G: 81% to 94%), but lower correlations with PP (G: 22% to 78%). The sibling recurrence risk ratio (λS) for hypertension and treatment were calculated as 1.60 and 2.04 respectively. These findings confirm the genetic components of BP traits in GS:SFHS, and justify further work to investigate genetic determinants of BP. Genetic variants reported in the recent large GWAS of BP traits were selected for genotyping in GS:SFHS using a custom designed TaqMan® OpenArray®. The genotyping plate included 44 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that have been previously reported to be associated with BP or hypertension at genome-wide significance level. A linear mixed model that is adjusted for age, age-squared, sex, and BMI was used to test for the association between the genetic variants and BP traits. Of the 43 variants that passed the QC, 11 variants showed statistically significant association with at least one BP trait. The phenotypic variance explained by these variant for the four BP traits were 1.4%, 1.5%, 1.6%, and 0.8% for SBP, DBP, MAP, and PP, respectively. The association of genetic risk score (GRS) that were constructed from selected variants has showed a positive association with BP level and hypertension prevalence, with an average effect of one mmHg increase with each 0.80 unit increases in the GRS across the different BP traits. The impact of BP-lowering medication on the genetic association study for BP traits has been established, with typical practice of adding a fixed value (i.e. 15/10 mmHg) to the measured BP values to adjust for BP treatment. Using the subset of participants with the two treatment exposure sources (i.e. SRMs and EPRs), the influence of using either source to justify the addition of fixed values in SNP association signal was analysed. BP phenotypes derived from EPRs were considered the true phenotypes, and those derived from SRMs were considered less accurate, with some phenotypic noise. Comparing SNPs association signals between the four BP traits in the two model derived from the different adjustments showed that MAP was the least impacted by the phenotypic noise. This was suggested by identifying the same overlapped significant SNPs for the two models in the case of MAP, while other BP traits had some discrepancy between the two sources
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Are there variations in behaviours and leadership styles of next-generation family members or descendants who join their family business due to different forms of commitment? Evidence from a dual respondent study of 109 Canadian and Swiss family firms suggests that descendants with affective commitment to their family firms are more likely to engage in discretionary activities going beyond the job description, thereby contributing to organizational performance. Next-generation members with normative commitment are more likely to engage in transformational leadership behaviours. Both affectively and normatively motivated next-generation members use contingent reward forms of leadership. A surprising finding of this study is the binding force of normative commitment on positive leadership behaviours of next-generation members. This study empirically tests the generalizability of the three-component model of commitment to family businesses, a context in which different forms of commitment may play a unique role.
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PHWAT is a new model that couples a geochemical reaction model (PHREEQC-2) with a density-dependent groundwater flow and solute transport model (SEAWAT) using the split-operator approach. PHWAT was developed to simulate multi-component reactive transport in variable density groundwater flow. Fluid density in PHWAT depends not on only the concentration of a single species as in SEAWAT, but also the concentrations of other dissolved chemicals that can be subject to reactive processes. Simulation results of PHWAT and PHREEQC-2 were compared in their predictions of effluent concentration from a column experiment. Both models produced identical results, showing that PHWAT has correctly coupled the sub-packages. PHWAT was then applied to the simulation of a tank experiment in which seawater intrusion was accompanied by cation exchange. The density dependence of the intrusion and the snow-plough effect in the breakthrough curves were reflected in the model simulations, which were in good agreement with the measured breakthrough data. Comparison simulations that, in turn, excluded density effects and reactions allowed us to quantify the marked effect of ignoring these processes. Next, we explored numerical issues involved in the practical application of PHWAT using the example of a dense plume flowing into a tank containing fresh water. It was shown that PHWAT could model physically unstable flow and that numerical instabilities were suppressed. Physical instability developed in the model in accordance with the increase of the modified Rayleigh number for density-dependent flow, in agreement with previous research. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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This paper introduces a new model of trend (or underlying) inflation. In contrast to many earlier approaches, which allow for trend inflation to evolve according to a random walk, ours is a bounded model which ensures that trend inflation is constrained to lie in an interval. The bounds of this interval can either be fixed or estimated from the data. Our model also allows for a time-varying degree of persistence in the transitory component of inflation. The bounds placed on trend inflation mean that standard econometric methods for estimating linear Gaussian state space models cannot be used and we develop a posterior simulation algorithm for estimating the bounded trend inflation model. In an empirical exercise with CPI inflation we find the model to work well, yielding more sensible measures of trend inflation and forecasting better than popular alternatives such as the unobserved components stochastic volatility model.
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La réflexion est considérée comme un élément significatif de la pédagogie et de la pratique médicales sans qu’il n’existe de consensus sur sa définition ou sur sa modélisation. Comme la réflexion prend concurremment plusieurs sens, elle est difficile à opérationnaliser. Une définition et un modèle standard sont requis afin d’améliorer le développement d’applications pratiques de la réflexion. Dans ce mémoire, nous identifions, explorons et analysons thématiquement les conceptualisations les plus influentes de la réflexion, et développons de nouveaux modèle et définition. La réflexion est définie comme le processus de s’engager (le « soi » (S)) dans des interactions attentives, critiques, exploratoires et itératives (ACEI) avec ses pensées et ses actions (PA), leurs cadres conceptuels sous-jacents (CC), en visant à les changer et en examinant le changement lui-même (VC). Notre modèle conceptuel comprend les cinq composantes internes de la réflexion et les éléments extrinsèques qui l’influencent.
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The extent and thickness of the Arctic sea ice cover has decreased dramatically in the past few decades with minima in sea ice extent in September 2005 and 2007. These minima have not been predicted in the IPCC AR4 report, suggesting that the sea ice component of climate models should more realistically represent the processes controlling the sea ice mass balance. One of the processes poorly represented in sea ice models is the formation and evolution of melt ponds. Melt ponds accumulate on the surface of sea ice from snow and sea ice melt and their presence reduces the albedo of the ice cover, leading to further melt. Toward the end of the melt season, melt ponds cover up to 50% of the sea ice surface. We have developed a melt pond evolution theory. Here, we have incorporated this melt pond theory into the Los Alamos CICE sea ice model, which has required us to include the refreezing of melt ponds. We present results showing that the presence, or otherwise, of a representation of melt ponds has a significant effect on the predicted sea ice thickness and extent. We also present a sensitivity study to uncertainty in the sea ice permeability, number of thickness categories in the model representation, meltwater redistribution scheme, and pond albedo. We conclude with a recommendation that our melt pond scheme is included in sea ice models, and the number of thickness categories should be increased and concentrated at lower thicknesses.
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Mice selected for a strong (AIRmax) or weak (AIRmin) acute inflammatory response present different susceptibilities to bacterial infections, autoimmune diseases and carcinogenesis. Variations in these phenotypes have been also detected in AIRmax and AIRmin mice rendered homozygous for Slc11a1 resistant (R) and susceptible (S) alleles. Our aim was to investigate if the phenotypic differences observed in these mice was related to the complement system. AIRmax and AIRmin mice and AIRmax and AIRmin groups homozygous for the resistance (R) or susceptibility (S) alleles of the solute carrier family 11a1 member (Slc11a1) gene, formerly designated Nramp-1. While no difference in complement activity was detected in sera from AIRmax and AIRmin strains, all sera from AIRmax Slc11a1 resistant mice (AIRmax(RR)) presented no complement-dependent hemolytic activity. Furthermore, C5 was not found in their sera by immunodiffusion and, polymerase chain reaction and DNA sequencing of its gene demonstrated that AIRmax(RR) mice are homozygous for the C5 deficient (D) mutation previously described in A/J. Therefore, the C5D allele was fixed in homozygosis in AIRmax(RR) line. The AIRmax(RR) line is a new experimental mouse model in which a strong inflammatory response can be triggered in vivo in the absence of C5.
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We develop an affine jump diffusion (AJD) model with the jump-risk premium being determined by both idiosyncratic and systematic sources of risk. While we maintain the classical affine setting of the model, we add a finite set of new state variables that affect the paths of the primitive, under both the actual and the risk-neutral measure, by being related to the primitive's jump process. Those new variables are assumed to be commom to all the primitives. We present simulations to ensure that the model generates the volatility smile and compute the "discounted conditional characteristic function'' transform that permits the pricing of a wide range of derivatives.