Moisture recycling in the Iberian Peninsula from a regional climate simulation: spatiotemporal analysis and impact on the precipitation regime

The contribution of the evapotranspiration from a certain region to the precipitation over the same area is referred to as water recycling. In this paper, we explore the spatiotemporal links between the recycling mechanism and the Iberian rainfall regime. We use a 9 km resolution Weather Research and Forecasting simulation of 18 years (1990-2007) to compute local and regional recycling ratios over Iberia, at the monthly scale, through both an analytical and a numerical recycling model. In contrast to coastal areas, the interior of Iberia experiences a relative maximum of precipitation in spring, suggesting a prominent role of land-atmosphere interactions on the inland precipitation regime during this period of the year. Local recycling ratios are the highest in spring and early summer, coinciding with those areas where this spring peak of rainfall represents the absolute maximum in the annual cycle. This confirms that recycling processes are crucial to explain the Iberian spring precipitation, particularly over the eastern and northeastern sectors. Average monthly recycling values range from 0.04 in December to 0.14 in June according to the numerical model and from 0.03 in December to 0.07 in May according to the analytical procedure. Our analysis shows that the highest values of recycling are limited by the coexistence of two necessary mechanisms: (1) the availability of sufficient soil moisture and (2) the occurrence of appropriate synoptic configurations favoring the development of convective regimes. The analyzed surplus of rainfall in spring has a critical impact on agriculture over large semiarid regions of the interior of Iberia.

Temporal trends and spatial distribution of unsafe abortion in Brazil, 1996-2012

OBJECTIVE To analyze temporal trends and distribution patterns of unsafe abortion in Brazil. METHODS Ecological study based on records of hospital admissions of women due to abortion in Brazil between 1996 and 2012, obtained from the Hospital Information System of the Ministry of Health. We estimated the number of unsafe abortions stratified by place of residence, using indirect estimate techniques. The following indicators were calculated: ratio of unsafe abortions/100 live births and rate of unsafe abortion/1,000 women of childbearing age. We analyzed temporal trends through polynomial regression and spatial distribution using municipalities as the unit of analysis. RESULTS In the study period, a total of 4,007,327 hospital admissions due to abortions were recorded in Brazil. We estimated a total of 16,905,911 unsafe abortions in the country, with an annual mean of 994,465 abortions (mean unsafe abortion rate: 17.0 abortions/1,000 women of childbearing age; ratio of unsafe abortions: 33.2/100 live births). Unsafe abortion presented a declining trend at national level (R2: 94.0%, p < 0.001), with unequal patterns between regions. There was a significant reduction of unsafe abortion in the Northeast (R2: 93.0%, p < 0.001), Southeast (R2: 92.0%, p < 0.001) and Central-West regions (R2: 64.0%, p < 0.001), whereas the North (R2: 39.0%, p = 0.030) presented an increase, and the South (R2: 22.0%, p = 0.340) remained stable. Spatial analysis identified the presence of clusters of municipalities with high values for unsafe abortion, located mainly in states of the North, Northeast and Southeast Regions. CONCLUSIONS Unsafe abortion remains a public health problem in Brazil, with marked regional differences, mainly concentrated in the socioeconomically disadvantaged regions of the country. Qualification of attention to women’s health, especially to reproductive aspects and attention to pre- and post-abortion processes, are necessary and urgent strategies to be implemented in the country.

Influence of Immunopreventable Diseases and AIDS on the Demand of an Infectious Diseases Department in Rio de Janeiro State, Brazil, in the Course of Thirty Years (1965-1994)

Brazil's nosologic profile has been sustaining profound modifications. Some occurred because of massive immunization campaigns and socioeconomic and demographic trends. Some yet were pure nosologic transitions, such as the emergence of AIDS. In this demand study it is described how these changes reflected on the 8,630 admissions of an Infectious Diseases Department in Niterói, along a thirty year period. Brazilian rural endemic diseases were infrequent (3.45%). Men predominated (62%) all the time, in all age strata and in nearly all diseases. Children under fifteen predominated until 1983. There was, in the case of tetanus, a striking rise in age strata. Institutional mortality dropped from 31% in 1965 to 10% in 1984, but rose since then to 15% in 1994. However, if AIDS patients had not been computed, mortality would have kept descending till 8% at the end of the study period. The crescent unimportance of immunopreventable diseases paralleled with the growing prominence of AIDS. In less than a decade, AIDS ranked fifth among the most frequent diseases in the whole period of thirty years. As opposed to the immunopreventable diseases, neither meningitides nor pneumonia appear to be in decline. AIDS, by its exponential incidence, by its chronic character, and by the uncountable opportunistic infections it determines, imposes itself as a challenge for the coming years.

HUMAN T-LYMPHOTROPIC VIRUS 1 (HTLV-1) AND HUMAN T-LYMPHOTROPIC VIRUS 2 (HTLV-2): GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH TRENDS AND COLLABORATION NETWORKS (1989-2012)

Publications are often used as a measure of research work success. Human T-lymphotropic virus (HTLV) type 1 and 2 are human retroviruses, which were discovered in the early 1980s, and it is estimated that 15-20 million people are infected worldwide. This article describes a bibliometric review and a coauthorship network analysis of literature on HTLV indexed in PubMed in a 24-year period. A total of 7,564 documents were retrieved, showing a decrease in the number of documents from 1996 to 2007. HTLV manuscripts were published in 1,074 journals. Japan and USA were the countries with the highest contribution in this field (61%) followed by France (8%). Production ranking changed when the number of publications was normalized by population (Dominican Republic and Japan), by gross domestic product (Guinea-Bissau and Gambia), and by gross national income per capita (Brazil and Japan). The present study has shed light on some of the defining features of scientific collaboration performed by HTLV research community, such as the existence of core researchers responsible for articulating the development of research in the area, facilitating wider collaborative relationships and the integration of new authors in the research groups.

Global literature of fiddler crabs, genus Uca (Decapoda, Ocypodidae): trends and future directions

Crabs of the genus Uca Leach, 1814 are characterized by having strong sexual dimorphism and a global distribution. Currently, 97 species have been described and analyzed under several aspects, including population ecology, physiology and ethology. However, there is no general summary of the information from the various literatures. The aim of this study is to perform a scientometric analysis of fiddler crab studies. For this we searched papers available in the Thomson ISI database that contained the words "Uca" OR "fiddler* crab*" between the years 1991 and 2007. For each paper, we researched and recorded the following characteristics: publication year; journal of publication; the first author's nationality; the country where the study was conducted; study type; species studied; and the work area. Our results indicated that there was no increase in the number of articles through the years considered. The Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology published most of the articles on Uca, indicating the importance of this group as a model for testing ecological hypotheses using experimental approaches. Our results also showed that United States had the highest number of authors and published studies on Uca, following the overall trend in dominance on scientific research. Furthermore, using models with three variables (per capita income, number of species of Uca and extent of coastal countries) we observed that, according to the Akaike Information Criterion, the per capita income was the most important correlate for the number of articles per country (both the author's country and country of study). Additionally, our results show that the species U. pugilator (distributed on the East Coast of the North American continent) was the species most singularly referenced in the papers considered. Moreover, our results indicate that most studies on Uca use a descriptive and local scale. The majority of papers in our literature search reflect studies in population biology, followed by behavioral and physiological characteristics.

Interactive Epistemology and Reasoning: On the Foundations of Game Theory

Game theory describes and analyzes strategic interaction. It is usually distinguished between static games, which are strategic situations in which the players choose only once as well as simultaneously, and dynamic games, which are strategic situations involving sequential choices. In addition, dynamic games can be further classified according to perfect and imperfect information. Indeed, a dynamic game is said to exhibit perfect information, whenever at any point of the game every player has full informational access to all choices that have been conducted so far. However, in the case of imperfect information some players are not fully informed about some choices. Game-theoretic analysis proceeds in two steps. Firstly, games are modelled by so-called form structures which extract and formalize the significant parts of the underlying strategic interaction. The basic and most commonly used models of games are the normal form, which rather sparsely describes a game merely in terms of the players' strategy sets and utilities, and the extensive form, which models a game in a more detailed way as a tree. In fact, it is standard to formalize static games with the normal form and dynamic games with the extensive form. Secondly, solution concepts are developed to solve models of games in the sense of identifying the choices that should be taken by rational players. Indeed, the ultimate objective of the classical approach to game theory, which is of normative character, is the development of a solution concept that is capable of identifying a unique choice for every player in an arbitrary game. However, given the large variety of games, it is not at all certain whether it is possible to device a solution concept with such universal capability. Alternatively, interactive epistemology provides an epistemic approach to game theory of descriptive character. This rather recent discipline analyzes the relation between knowledge, belief and choice of game-playing agents in an epistemic framework. The description of the players' choices in a given game relative to various epistemic assumptions constitutes the fundamental problem addressed by an epistemic approach to game theory. In a general sense, the objective of interactive epistemology consists in characterizing existing game-theoretic solution concepts in terms of epistemic assumptions as well as in proposing novel solution concepts by studying the game-theoretic implications of refined or new epistemic hypotheses. Intuitively, an epistemic model of a game can be interpreted as representing the reasoning of the players. Indeed, before making a decision in a game, the players reason about the game and their respective opponents, given their knowledge and beliefs. Precisely these epistemic mental states on which players base their decisions are explicitly expressible in an epistemic framework. In this PhD thesis, we consider an epistemic approach to game theory from a foundational point of view. In Chapter 1, basic game-theoretic notions as well as Aumann's epistemic framework for games are expounded and illustrated. Also, Aumann's sufficient conditions for backward induction are presented and his conceptual views discussed. In Chapter 2, Aumann's interactive epistemology is conceptually analyzed. In Chapter 3, which is based on joint work with Conrad Heilmann, a three-stage account for dynamic games is introduced and a type-based epistemic model is extended with a notion of agent connectedness. Then, sufficient conditions for backward induction are derived. In Chapter 4, which is based on joint work with Jérémie Cabessa, a topological approach to interactive epistemology is initiated. In particular, the epistemic-topological operator limit knowledge is defined and some implications for games considered. In Chapter 5, which is based on joint work with Jérémie Cabessa and Andrés Perea, Aumann's impossibility theorem on agreeing to disagree is revisited and weakened in the sense that possible contexts are provided in which agents can indeed agree to disagree.

The use and mis-use of some ecological terms and concepts in epidemiology

The article discusses the current use and mis-use of ecological terms and concepts in epidemiological literature, and in special, in works dealing with zoonotic diseases. A selection of examples was taken from papers recently published on the transmission of Chagas' disease by Triatoma sordida. Proper definitions are listed, with the intent of helping non-ecologists to use those terms and concepts correctly.

Breastfeeding in the East Midlands: patterns, trends and data quality issues

Breastfeeding has important health benefits for both mother and child. Breastfed babies are less likely to report with gastric, respiratory and urinary tract infections and allergic diseases, while they are also less likely to become obese in later childhood. Improving breastfeeding initiation has become a national priority, and a national target has been set ̢?oto deliver an increase of two percentage points per annum in breastfeeding initiation rate, focusing especially on women from disadvantaged areas̢?. Despite improvements in data quality in previous years, it still remains difficult to construct an accurate and reliable picture of variations and trends in breastfeeding in the East Midlands. It is essential that nationally standardised data collection systems are put in place to enable effective and accurate monitoring and evaluation of breastfeeding status both at a local and national level.

Obesity trends and body mass index changes after starting antiretroviral treatment : the Swiss HIV Cohort Study

BACKGROUND: The factors that contribute to increasing obesity rates in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive persons and to body mass index (BMI) increase that typically occurs after starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) are incompletely characterized. METHODS: We describe BMI trends in the entire Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS) population and investigate the effects of demographics, HIV-related factors, and ART on BMI change in participants with data available before and 4 years after first starting ART. RESULTS: In the SHCS, overweight/obesity prevalence increased from 13% in 1990 (n = 1641) to 38% in 2012 (n = 8150). In the participants starting ART (n = 1601), mean BMI increase was 0.92 kg/m(2) per year (95% confidence interval, .83-1.0) during year 0-1 and 0.31 kg/m(2) per year (0.29-0.34) during years 1-4. In multivariable analyses, annualized BMI change during year 0-1 was associated with older age (0.15 [0.06-0.24] kg/m(2)) and CD4 nadir <199 cells/µL compared to nadir >350 (P < .001). Annualized BMI change during years 1-4 was associated with CD4 nadir <100 cells/µL compared to nadir >350 (P = .001) and black compared to white ethnicity (0.28 [0.16-0.37] kg/m(2)). Individual ART combinations differed little in their contribution to BMI change. CONCLUSIONS: Increasing obesity rates in the SHCS over time occurred at the same time as aging of the SHCS population, demographic changes, earlier ART start, and increasingly widespread ART coverage. Body mass index increase after ART start was typically biphasic, the BMI increase in year 0-1 being as large as the increase in years 1-4 combined. The effect of ART regimen on BMI change was limited.

Impact of brain aging and neurodegeneration on cognition: evidence from MRI.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: We present an overview of recent concepts in mechanisms underlying cognitive decline associated with brain aging and neurodegeneration from the perspective of MRI. RECENT FINDINGS: Recent findings challenge the established link between neuroimaging biomarkers of neurodegeneration and age-related or disease-related cognitive decline. Amyloid burden, white matter hyperintensities and local patterns of brain atrophy seem to have differential impact on cognition, particularly on episodic and working memory - the most vulnerable domains in 'normal aging' and Alzheimer's disease. Studies suggesting that imaging biomarkers of neurodegeneration are independent of amyloid-β give rise to new hypothesis regarding the pathological cascade in Alzheimer's disease. Findings in patients with autosomal-dominant Alzheimer's disease confirm the notion of differential temporal trajectory of amyloid deposition and brain atrophy to add another layer of complexity on the basic mechanisms of cognitive aging and neurodegeneration. Finally, the concept of cognitive reserve in 'supernormal aging' is questioned by evidence for the preservation of neurochemical, structural and functional brain integrity in old age rather than recruitment of 'reserves' for maintaining cognitive abilities. SUMMARY: Recent advances in clinical neuroscience, brain imaging and genetics challenge pathophysiological hypothesis of neurodegeneration and cognitive aging dominating the field in the last decade and call for reconsidering the choice of therapeutic window for early intervention.

Chemical defenses in Sacoglossan Opisthobranchs: Taxonomic trends and evolutionary implications

Sacoglossan sea slugs (Mollusca: Opisthobranchia) are one of the few groups of specialist herbivores in the marine environment. Sacoglossans feed suctorially on the cell sap of macroalgae, from which they 'steal' chloroplasts (kleptoplasty) and deterrent substances (kleptochemistry), retaining intracellularly both host plastids and chemicals. The ingested chloroplasts continue to photosynthesize for periods ranging from a few hours or days up to 3 months in some species. Shelled, more primitive sacoglossans feed only on the siphonalean green algal genus Caulerpa, and they do not have functional kleptoplasty. The diet of sacoglossans has radiated out from this ancestral food. Among the shell-less Plakobranchidae (=Elysiidae), the more primitive species feed on other siphonales (families Derbesiaceae, Caulerpaceae, Bryopsidaceae and Codiaceae) and fix carbon, while the more 'advanced' species within the Plakobranchidae and Limapontioidae have a more broad dietary range. Most of these 'advanced' species are unable to fix carbon because the chloroplasts of their food algae are mechanically disrupted during ingestion. Mesoherbivores are likely to be eaten if they live on palatable seaweeds, their cryptic coloration and form not always keeping them safe from predators. Sacoglossans prefer to live on and eat chemically defended seaweeds, and they use ingested algal chemicals as deterrents of potential predators. The most ancestral shelled sacoglossans (Oxynoidae) and some Plakobranchidae such as Elysia translucens, Thuridilla hopei and Bosellia mimetica have developed a diet-derived chemical defense mechanism. Oxynoids and Thuridilla hopei are able to biomodify the algal metabolites. However, the Plakobranchidae Elysia timida and E. viridis, together with Limapontioidea species, are characterized by their ability to de novo synthesize polypropionate metabolites. A whole analysis of kleptoplasty and chemical defenses in sacoglossans may offer a better understanding of the ecology and evolution of these specialized opisthobranchs. In this paper we summarize some of the latest findings, related mainly to Mediterranean species, and offer a plausible evolutionary scenario based on the biological and chemical trends we can distinguish in them.

Value added logistical support service. Part 1 : Trends and new concept model

The aim of `Valssi' study was to find out the service requirements in `business-to-business' (B2B) markets and to present a new logistics service concept, where the traditional logistics service is expanded with significant manufacturing and value addedfacilities. The traditional third-party logistics service providers are not necessarily able to offer services, which cover widely the needs of potential customers. The study has been outlined to spare part markets in metal industry. In the second phase of the Valssi-project the aim is to examine the economical conditions and potentiality of the new logistics business concept. This research report (Part 1) concentrates on examining current trends in global and domestic logistics markets. Based on detailed survey among the participating companies, the study presents basis for a new logistics business concept model. The developed concept consists of 12 different service modules, which are split into deeper details of processes. The integration of worldwide supplier and service provider network together with customer companies systems is a challenge. The report focuses on evaluating the requirements for the new business concept from the customer-companies point of view. The study paints an overall picture of distribution and service provider network including an abstract about the software and system integration possibilities. As a result of the survey, it can be concluded that thereis need for the new business concept among the participating companies, and a modular service concept meets the requirements of them, because the new sophisticated concept considers the specialities involved in spare part logistics in metal industry.

Effects of business-to-business customer orientation, satisfaction and retention on firm profitability

The objective of this master’s thesis was to examine the effect of customer orientation on customer satisfaction and how customer satisfaction and customer retention contribute to firm profitability. Beside customer orientation, also other antecedents of customer satisfaction, i.e. service quality, flexibility, trust and commitment, were investigated as control variables. Literature review revealed several research gaps concerning research of the key concepts. These research calls were also answered. The empirical study focused on one case company, a telecommunication expert. The data for the empirical part was collected with web-based questionnaire from case company’s business customers in January-February 2008. Sample (N=95) produced 59 answers, thus the response rate of the survey was 62,1%. The data was analyzed by using statistical analysis program, SPSS. As a conclusion, the results indicate that customer orientation do not affect customer satisfaction directly, but through service quality, flexibility and trust. Moreover, customer satisfaction has positive impacts on commitment and intentions to stay as a customer in the future, but not on profitability. In the present study, only past purchase behavior, measured with customer database measure, is positively related to firm profitability.

Trends and characteristics of attendance at the emergency department of a Swiss university hospital: 2002-2012.

BACKGROUND: The numbers of people attending emergency departments (EDs) at hospitals are increasing. We aimed to analyse trends in ED attendance at a Swiss university hospital between 2002 and 2012, focussing on age-related differences and hospital admission criteria. METHODS: We used hospital administrative data for all patients aged ≥16 years who attended the ED (n = 298,306) at this university hospital between 1 January 2002, and 31 December 2012. We descriptively analysed the numbers of ED visits according to the admission year and stratified by age (≥65 vs <65 years). RESULTS: People attending the ED were on average 46.6 years old (standard deviation 20 years, maximum range 16‒99 years). The annual number of ED attendances grew by n = 6,639 (27.6%) from 24,080 in 2002 to 30,719 in 2012. In the subgroup of patients aged ≥65 the relative increase was 42.3%, which is significantly higher (Pearson's χ2 = 350.046, df = 10; p = 0.000) than the relative increase of 23.4% among patients <65 years. The subgroup of patients ≥65 years attended the ED more often because of diseases (n = 56,307; 85%) than accidents (n = 9,844; 14.9%). This subgroup (patients ≥65 years) was also more often admitted to hospital (Pearson's χ2 = 23,377.190; df = 1; p = 0.000) than patients <65 years. CONCLUSIONS: ED attendance of patients ≥65 years increased in absolute and relative terms. The study findings suggest that staff of this ED may want to assess the needs of patients ≥65 years and, if necessary, adjust the services (e.g., adapted triage scales, adapted geriatric screenings, and adapted hospital admission criteria).

Assessment of Coastal Bird Populations and Habitats on the Finnish Coast of the Baltic Sea: Implications for Monitoring and Management

Coastal birds are an integral part of coastal ecosystems, which nowadays are subject to severe environmental pressures. Effective measures for the management and conservation of seabirds and their habitats call for insight into their population processes and the factors affecting their distribution and abundance. Central to national and international management and conservation measures is the availability of accurate data and information on bird populations, as well as on environmental trends and on measures taken to solve environmental problems. In this thesis I address different aspects of the occurrence, abundance, population trends and breeding success of waterbirds breeding on the Finnish coast of the Baltic Sea, and discuss the implications of the results for seabird monitoring, management and conservation. In addition, I assess the position and prospects of coastal bird monitoring data, in the processing and dissemination of biodiversity data and information in accordance with the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) and other national and international commitments. I show that important factors for seabird habitat selection are island area and elevation, water depth, shore openness, and the composition of island cover habitats. Habitat preferences are species-specific, with certain similarities within species groups. The occurrence of the colonial Arctic Tern (Sterna paradisaea) is partly affected by different habitat characteristics than its abundance. Using long-term bird monitoring data, I show that eutrophication and winter severity have reduced the populations of several Finnish seabird species. A major demographic factor through which environmental changes influence bird populations is breeding success. Breeding success can function as a more rapid indicator of sublethal environmental impacts than population trends, particularly for long-lived and slowbreeding species, and should therefore be included in coastal bird monitoring schemes. Among my target species, local breeding success can be shown to affect the populations of the Mallard (Anas platyrhynchos), the Eider (Somateria mollissima) and the Goosander (Mergus merganser) after a time lag corresponding to their species-specific recruitment age. For some of the target species, the number of individuals in late summer can be used as an easier and more cost-effective indicator of breeding success than brood counts. My results highlight that the interpretation and application of habitat and population studies require solid background knowledge of the ecology of the target species. In addition, the special characteristics of coastal birds, their habitats, and coastal bird monitoring data have to be considered in the assessment of their distribution and population trends. According to the results, the relationships between the occurrence, abundance and population trends of coastal birds and environmental factors can be quantitatively assessed using multivariate modelling and model selection. Spatial data sets widely available in Finland can be utilised in the calculation of several variables that are relevant to the habitat selection of Finnish coastal species. Concerning some habitat characteristics field work is still required, due to a lack of remotely sensed data or the low resolution of readily available data in relation to the fine scale of the habitat patches in the archipelago. While long-term data sets exist for water quality and weather, the lack of data concerning for instance the food resources of birds hampers more detailed studies of environmental effects on bird populations. Intensive studies of coastal bird species in different archipelago areas should be encouraged. The provision and free delivery of high-quality coastal data concerning bird populations and their habitats would greatly increase the capability of ecological modelling, as well as the management and conservation of coastal environments and communities. International initiatives that promote open spatial data infrastructures and sharing are therefore highly regarded. To function effectively, international information networks, such as the biodiversity Clearing House Mechanism (CHM) under the CBD, need to be rooted at regional and local levels. Attention should also be paid to the processing of data for higher levels of the information hierarchy, so that data are synthesized and developed into high-quality knowledge applicable to management and conservation.