Bayes factor for investigative assessment of selected handwriting features

This paper extends previous research [1] on the use of multivariate continuous data in comparative handwriting examinations, notably for gender classification. A database has been constructed by analyzing the contour shape of loop characters of type a and d by means of Fourier analysis, which allows characters to be described in a global way by a set of variables (e.g., Fourier descriptors). Sample handwritings were collected from right- and left-handed female and male writers. The results reported in this paper provide further arguments in support of the view that investigative settings in forensic science represent an area of application for which the Bayesian approach offers a logical framework. In particular, the Bayes factor is computed for settings that focus on inference of gender and handedness of the author of an incriminated handwritten text. An emphasis is placed on comparing the efficiency for investigative purposes of characters a and d.

From Empirical Bayes to Full Bayes: Methods for Analysing Traffice Safety Data, October 25, 2004

Traffic safety engineers are among the early adopters of Bayesian statistical tools for analyzing crash data. As in many other areas of application, empirical Bayes methods were their first choice, perhaps because they represent an intuitively appealing, yet relatively easy to implement alternative to purely classical approaches. With the enormous progress in numerical methods made in recent years and with the availability of free, easy to use software that permits implementing a fully Bayesian approach, however, there is now ample justification to progress towards fully Bayesian analyses of crash data. The fully Bayesian approach, in particular as implemented via multi-level hierarchical models, has many advantages over the empirical Bayes approach. In a full Bayesian analysis, prior information and all available data are seamlessly integrated into posterior distributions on which practitioners can base their inferences. All uncertainties are thus accounted for in the analyses and there is no need to pre-process data to obtain Safety Performance Functions and other such prior estimates of the effect of covariates on the outcome of interest. In this slight, fully Bayesian methods may well be less costly to implement and may result in safety estimates with more realistic standard errors. In this manuscript, we present the full Bayesian approach to analyzing traffic safety data and focus on highlighting the differences between the empirical Bayes and the full Bayes approaches. We use an illustrative example to discuss a step-by-step Bayesian analysis of the data and to show some of the types of inferences that are possible within the full Bayesian framework.

From Empirical Bayes to Full Bayes: Methods for Analyzubg Traffic Safey Data, October 25, 2004

Traffic safety engineers are among the early adopters of Bayesian statistical tools for analyzing crash data. As in many other areas of application, empirical Bayes methods were their first choice, perhaps because they represent an intuitively appealing, yet relatively easy to implement alternative to purely classical approaches. With the enormous progress in numerical methods made in recent years and with the availability of free, easy to use software that permits implementing a fully Bayesian approach, however, there is now ample justification to progress towards fully Bayesian analyses of crash data. The fully Bayesian approach, in particular as implemented via multi-level hierarchical models, has many advantages over the empirical Bayes approach. In a full Bayesian analysis, prior information and all available data are seamlessly integrated into posterior distributions on which practitioners can base their inferences. All uncertainties are thus accounted for in the analyses and there is no need to pre-process data to obtain Safety Performance Functions and other such prior estimates of the effect of covariates on the outcome of interest. In this light, fully Bayesian methods may well be less costly to implement and may result in safety estimates with more realistic standard errors. In this manuscript, we present the full Bayesian approach to analyzing traffic safety data and focus on highlighting the differences between the empirical Bayes and the full Bayes approaches. We use an illustrative example to discuss a step-by-step Bayesian analysis of the data and to show some of the types of inferences that are possible within the full Bayesian framework.

Bayes linear spaces

Linear spaces consisting of σ-finite probability measures and infinite measures (improper priors and likelihood functions) are defined. The commutative group operation, called perturbation, is the updating given by Bayes theorem; the inverse operation is the Radon-Nikodym derivative. Bayes spaces of measures are sets of classes of proportional measures. In this framework, basic notions of mathematical statistics get a simple algebraic interpretation. For example, exponential families appear as affine subspaces with their sufficient statistics as a basis. Bayesian statistics, in particular some well-known properties of conjugated priors and likelihood functions, are revisited and slightly extended

Verificación de efectividad de blindaje electromagnético por teorema de reciprocidad [por] Guillermo Romo Guzmán

Tesis (Maestría en Ciencias de la Ingeniería Eléctrica, con especialidad en Sistemas Eléctricos de Potencia) U.A.N.L.

Métafiction et érotisme dans trois romans contemporains : A Sport and a Pastime de James Salter, Teorema de Pier Paolo Pasolini et Trou de mémoire d'Hubert Aquin

Cette thèse prend son point de départ d'une théorie élaborée par Linda Hutcheon. Elle propose que la métafiction est souvent exploitée à travers quatre genres. L’un deux est l'érotisme. Ainsi, à partir de cette idée, cet ouvrage va examiner plus profondément les liens et les implications entre ce concept de la métafiction, qui sera revu et résumé, et l'érotisme. Les trois romans choisis, A Sport and a Pastime de James Salter, Teorema de Pier Paolo Pasolini et Trou de mémoire de Hubert Aquin, serviront de lieux d'analyse afin de révéler le rapport étroit qu'entretiennent la métafiction et l'érotisme.

COMBINED FEATURE EXTRACTION TECHNIQUES AND NAIVE BAYES CLASSIFIER FOR SPEECH RECOGNITION

Speech processing and consequent recognition are important areas of Digital Signal Processing since speech allows people to communicate more natu-rally and efficiently. In this work, a speech recognition system is developed for re-cognizing digits in Malayalam. For recognizing speech, features are to be ex-tracted from speech and hence feature extraction method plays an important role in speech recognition. Here, front end processing for extracting the features is per-formed using two wavelet based methods namely Discrete Wavelet Transforms (DWT) and Wavelet Packet Decomposition (WPD). Naive Bayes classifier is used for classification purpose. After classification using Naive Bayes classifier, DWT produced a recognition accuracy of 83.5% and WPD produced an accuracy of 80.7%. This paper is intended to devise a new feature extraction method which produces improvements in the recognition accuracy. So, a new method called Dis-crete Wavelet Packet Decomposition (DWPD) is introduced which utilizes the hy-brid features of both DWT and WPD. The performance of this new approach is evaluated and it produced an improved recognition accuracy of 86.2% along with Naive Bayes classifier.

FEATURE SELECTION AND COMPARISON OF TWO NAÏVE BAYES CLASSIFICATION METHODS IN THE CONTEXT OF SPAM FILTERING

Treating e-mail filtering as a binary text classification problem, researchers have applied several statistical learning algorithms to email corpora with promising results. This paper examines the performance of a Naive Bayes classifier using different approaches to feature selection and tokenization on different email corpora

Bayes quadratic unbiased estimator of spatial covariance parameters

This work presents Bayes invariant quadratic unbiased estimator, for short BAIQUE. Bayesian approach is used here to estimate the covariance functions of the regionalized variables which appear in the spatial covariance structure in mixed linear model. Firstly a brief review of spatial process, variance covariance components structure and Bayesian inference is given, since this project deals with these concepts. Then the linear equations model corresponding to BAIQUE in the general case is formulated. That Bayes estimator of variance components with too many unknown parameters is complicated to be solved analytically. Hence, in order to facilitate the handling with this system, BAIQUE of spatial covariance model with two parameters is considered. Bayesian estimation arises as a solution of a linear equations system which requires the linearity of the covariance functions in the parameters. Here the availability of prior information on the parameters is assumed. This information includes apriori distribution functions which enable to find the first and the second moments matrix. The Bayesian estimation suggested here depends only on the second moment of the prior distribution. The estimation appears as a quadratic form y'Ay , where y is the vector of filtered data observations. This quadratic estimator is used to estimate the linear function of unknown variance components. The matrix A of BAIQUE plays an important role. If such a symmetrical matrix exists, then Bayes risk becomes minimal and the unbiasedness conditions are fulfilled. Therefore, the symmetry of this matrix is elaborated in this work. Through dealing with the infinite series of matrices, a representation of the matrix A is obtained which shows the symmetry of A. In this context, the largest singular value of the decomposed matrix of the infinite series is considered to deal with the convergence condition and also it is connected with Gerschgorin Discs and Poincare theorem. Then the BAIQUE model for some experimental designs is computed and compared. The comparison deals with different aspects, such as the influence of the position of the design points in a fixed interval. The designs that are considered are those with their points distributed in the interval [0, 1]. These experimental structures are compared with respect to the Bayes risk and norms of the matrices corresponding to distances, covariance structures and matrices which have to satisfy the convergence condition. Also different types of the regression functions and distance measurements are handled. The influence of scaling on the design points is studied, moreover, the influence of the covariance structure on the best design is investigated and different covariance structures are considered. Finally, BAIQUE is applied for real data. The corresponding outcomes are compared with the results of other methods for the same data. Thereby, the special BAIQUE, which estimates the general variance of the data, achieves a very close result to the classical empirical variance.

Improving Multi-class Text Classification with Naive Bayes

There are numerous text documents available in electronic form. More and more are becoming available every day. Such documents represent a massive amount of information that is easily accessible. Seeking value in this huge collection requires organization; much of the work of organizing documents can be automated through text classification. The accuracy and our understanding of such systems greatly influences their usefulness. In this paper, we seek 1) to advance the understanding of commonly used text classification techniques, and 2) through that understanding, improve the tools that are available for text classification. We begin by clarifying the assumptions made in the derivation of Naive Bayes, noting basic properties and proposing ways for its extension and improvement. Next, we investigate the quality of Naive Bayes parameter estimates and their impact on classification. Our analysis leads to a theorem which gives an explanation for the improvements that can be found in multiclass classification with Naive Bayes using Error-Correcting Output Codes. We use experimental evidence on two commonly-used data sets to exhibit an application of the theorem. Finally, we show fundamental flaws in a commonly-used feature selection algorithm and develop a statistics-based framework for text feature selection. Greater understanding of Naive Bayes and the properties of text allows us to make better use of it in text classification.

Una aplicaci??n de la estimaci??n Bayes emp??rica para incrementar la fiabilidad de las puntuaciones parciales

Resumen tomado de la publicaci??n