An ice-core based history of Siberian forest fires since AD 1250

Forest fires play a key role in the global carbon cycle and thus, can affect regional and global climate. Although fires in extended areas of Russian boreal forests have a considerable influence on atmospheric greenhouse gas and soot concentrations, estimates of their impact on climate are hampered by a lack of data on the history of forest fires. Especially regions with strong continental climate are of high importance due to an intensified development of wildfires. In this study we reconstruct the fire history of Southern Siberia during the past 750 years using ice-core based nitrate, potassium, and charcoal concentration records from Belukha glacier in the continental Siberian Altai. A period of exceptionally high forest-fire activity was observed between AD 1600 and 1680, following an extremely dry period AD 1540-1600. Ice-core pollen data suggest distinct forest diebacks and the expansion of steppe in response to dry climatic conditions. Coherence with a paleoenvironmental record from the 200 km distant Siberian lake Teletskoye shows that the vegetational shift AD 1540-1680, the increase in fire activity AD 1600-1680, and the subsequent recovery of forests AD 1700 were of regional significance. Dead biomass accumulation in response to drought and high temperatures around AD 1600 probably triggered maximum forest-fire activity AD 1600-1680. The extreme dry period in the 16th century was also observed at other sites in Central Asia and is possibly associated with a persistent positive mode of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). No significant increase in biomass burning occurred in the Altai region during the last 300 years, despite strongly increasing temperatures and human activities. Our results imply that precipitation changes controlled fire-regime and vegetation shifts in the Altai region during the past 750 years. We conclude that high sensitivity of ecosystems to occasional decadal-scale drought events may trigger unprecedented environmental reorganizations under global-warming conditions.

TALDICE-1 age scale of the Talos Dome deep ice core, East Antarctica

A new deep ice core drilling program, TALDICE, has been successfully handled by a European team at Talos Dome, in the Ross Sea sector of East Antarctica, down to 1620 m depth. Using stratigraphic markers and a new inverse method, we produce the first official chronology of the ice core, called TALDICE-1. We show that it notably improves an a priori chronology resulting from a one-dimensional ice flow model. It is in agreement with a posteriori controls of the resulting accumulation rate and thinning function along the core. An absolute uncertainty of only 300 yr is obtained over the course of the last deglaciation. This uncertainty remains lower than 600 yr over Marine Isotope Stage 3, back to 50 kyr BP. The phasing of the TALDICE ice core climate record with respect to the central East Antarctic plateau and Greenland records can thus be determined with a precision allowing for a discussion of the mechanisms at work at sub-millennial time scales.

A refined TALDICE-1a age scale from 55 to 112 ka before present for the Talos Dome ice core based on high-resolution methane measurements

A precise synchronization of different climate records is indispensable for a correct dynamical interpretation of paleoclimatic data. A chronology for the TALDICE ice core from the Ross Sea sector of East Antarctica has recently been presented based on methane synchronization with Greenland and the EDC ice cores and δ18Oice synchronization with EDC in the bottom part (TALDICE-1). Using new high-resolution methane data obtained with a continuous flow analysis technique, we present a refined age scale for the age interval from 55–112 thousand years (ka) before present, where TALDICE is synchronized with EDC. New and more precise tie points reduce the uncertainties of the age scale from up to 1900 yr in TALDICE-1 to below 1100 yr over most of the refined interval and shift the Talos Dome dating to significantly younger ages during the onset of Marine Isotope Stage 3. Thus, discussions of climate dynamics at sub-millennial time scales are now possible back to 110 ka, in particular during the inception of the last ice age. Calcium data of EDC and TALDICE are compared to show the impact of the refinement to the synchronization of the two ice cores not only for the gas but also for the ice age scale.

Seasonal Deuterium Excess in a Tien Shan Ice Core: Influence of Moisture Transport and Recycling in Central Asia

Stable water isotope (delta(18)O, deltaD) data from a high elevation (5100 masl) ice core recovered from the Tien Shan Mountains, Kyrgyzstan, display a seasonal cycle in deuterium excess (d = deltaD - 8* delta(18)O) related to changes in the regional hydrologic cycle during 1994 - 2000. While there is a strong correlation (r(2) = 0.98) between delta(18)O and dD in the ice core samples, the regression slope (6.9) and mean d value (23.0) are significantly different than the global meteoric water line values. The resulting time-series ice core d profile contains distinct winter maxima and summer minima, with a yearly d amplitude of similar to 15 - 20parts per thousand. Local-scale processes that may affect d values preserved in the ice core are not consistent with the observed seasonal variability. Data from Central Asian monitoring sites in the Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation (GNIP) have similar seasonal d changes. We suggest that regional-scale hydrological conditions, including seasonal changes in moisture source, transport, and recycling in the Caspian/ Aral Sea region, are responsible for the observed spatial and temporal d variability.

Affect and cognition measures in preference-based decisions: Validity testing of the Ottawa Decisional Conflict Scale and a decision-specific anxiety measure with men eligible for prostate cancer screening

Background. At present, prostate cancer screening (PCS) guidelines require a discussion of risks, benefits, alternatives, and personal values, making decision aids an important tool to help convey information and to help clarify values. Objective: The overall goal of this study is to provide evidence of the reliability and validity of a PCS anxiety measure and the Decisional Conflict Scale (DCS). Methods. Using data from a randomized, controlled PCS decision aid trial that measured PCS anxiety at baseline and DCS at baseline (T0) and at two-weeks (T2), four psychometric properties were assessed: (1) internal consistency reliability, indicated by factor analysis intraclass correlations and Cronbach's α; (2) construct validity, indicated by patterns of Pearson correlations among subscales; (3) discriminant validity, indicated by the measure's ability to discriminate between undecided men and those with a definite screening intention; and (4) factor validity and invariance using confirmatory factor analyses (CFA). Results. The PCS anxiety measure had adequate internal consistency reliability and good construct and discriminant validity. CFAs indicated that the 3-factor model did not have adequate fit. CFAs for a general PCS anxiety measure and a PSA anxiety measure indicated adequate fit. The general PCS anxiety measure was invariant across clinics. The DCS had adequate internal consistency reliability except for the support subscale and had adequate discriminate validity. Good construct validity was found at the private clinic, but was only found for the feeling informed subscale at the public clinic. The traditional DCS did not have adequate fit at T0 or at T2. The alternative DCS had adequate fit at T0 but was not identified at T2. Factor loadings indicated that two subscales, feeling informed and feeling clear about values, were not distinct factors. Conclusions. Our general PCS anxiety measure can be used in PCS decision aid studies. The alternative DCS may be appropriate for men eligible for PCS. Implications: More emphasis needs to be placed on the development of PCS anxiety items relating to testing procedures. We recommend that the two DCS versions be validated in other samples of men eligible for PCS and in other health care decisions that involve uncertainty. ^

Dust record from the EPICA Dome C ice core, Antarctica, covering 0 to 800 kyr BP

Dust can affect the radiative balance of the atmosphere by absorbing or reflecting incoming solar radiation and it can be a source of micronutrients, such as iron, to the ocean. It has been suggested that production, transport, and deposition of dust is influenced by climatic changes on glacial-interglacial timescales. Here we present a high-resolution aeolian dust record from the EPICA Dome C ice core in East Antarctica, which provides an undisturbed climate sequence over the last eight climatic cycles. We find that there is a significant correlation between dust flux and temperature records during glacial periods that is absent during interglacial periods. Our data suggests that dust flux is increasingly correlated with Antarctic temperature as climate becomes colder. We interpret this as progressive coupling of Antarctic and lower latitudes climate. Limited changes in glacial-interglacial atmospheric transport time Mahowald et al. (1999, doi:10.1029/1999JD900084), Jouzel et al. (2007, doi:10.1126/science.1141038), and Werner et al. (2002, doi:10.1029/2002JD002365) suggest that the sources and lifetime of dust are the major factors controlling the high glacial dust input. We propose that the observed ~25-fold increase in glacial dust flux over all eight glacial periods can be attributed to a strengthening of South American dust sources, together with a longer atmospheric dust particle life-time in the upper troposphere resulting from a reduced hydrological cycle during the ice ages.

Dome C age scale EDC1 for ice core EDC99

A tentative age scale (EDC1) for the last 45 kyr is established for the new 788 m EPICA Dome C ice core using a simple ice flow model. The age of volcanic eruptions, the end of the Younger Dryas event, and the estimated depth and age of elevated 10Be, about 41 kyr ago were used to calibrate the model parameters. The uncertainty of EDC1 is estimated to ±10 yr for 0 to 700 yr BP, up to ±200 yr back to 10 kyr BP, and up to ±2 kyr back to 41 kyr BP. The age of the air in the bubbles is calculated with a firn densification model. In the Holocene the air is about 2000 yr younger than the ice and about 5500 yr during the last glacial maximum.

Core alignment and composite depth scale of DSDP Site 86-577

Deep Sea Drilling Project Site 577 on Shatsky Rise (North Pacific Ocean) recovered a series of cores at three holes that contain calcareous nannofossil ooze of latest Cretaceous (late Maastrichtian) through early Eocene age. Several important records have been generated using samples from these cores, but the stratigraphy has remained outdated and confusing. Here we revise the stratigraphy at Site 577. This includes refining several age datums, realigning cores in the depth domain, and placing all stratigraphic markers on a current time scale. The work provides a template for appropriately bringing latest Cretaceous and Paleogene data sets at old drill sites into current paleoceanographic literature for this time interval. While the Paleocene Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) lies within core gaps at Holes 577* and 577A, the sedimentary record at the site holds other important events and remains crucially relevant to understanding changes in oceanographic conditions from the latest Cretaceous through early Paleogene.

Dissolved organic matter molecular composition and concentrations from a large scale mesocosm study KOSMOS 2013 Kristineberg) on ocean acidification

Marine dissolved organic matter (DOM) represents one of the largest active carbon reservoirs on Earth. Changes in pool size or composition could have major impacts on the global carbon cycle. Ocean acidification is a potential driver for these changes because it influences marine primary production and heterotrophic respiration. Here we show that ocean acidification as expected for a 'business-as-usual' emission scenario in the year 2100 (900 µatm) does not affect the DOM pool with respect to its size and molecular composition. We applied ultrahigh-resolution mass spectrometry to monitor the production and turnover of 7,360 distinct molecular DOM features in an unprecedented long-term mesocosm study in a Swedish Fjord, covering a full cycle of marine production. DOM concentration and molecular composition did not differ significantly between present-day and year 2100 CO2 levels. Our findings are likely applicable to other coastal and productive marine ecosystems in general.

Stable isotopes, core logging data, relative paleointensity, dry bulk density, biogenic opal, CN-data (TC, TOC, CaCO3, TN), element concentrations, and coarse fraction of three sediment cores from the western Bering Sea

We used piston cores recovered in the western Bering Sea to reconstruct millennial-scale changes in marine productivity and terrigenous matter supply over the past ~180 kyr. Based on a geochemical multi-proxy approach, our results indicate closely interacting processes controlling marine productivity and terrigenous matter supply comparable to the situation in the Okhotsk Sea. Overall, terrigenous inputs were high, whereas export production was low. Minor increases in marine productivity occurred during intervals of Marine Isotope Stage 5 and interstadials, but pronounced maxima were recorded during interglacials and Termination I. The terrigenous material is suggested to be derived from continental sources on the eastern Bering Sea shelf and to be subsequently transported via sea ice, which is likely to drive changes in surface productivity, terrigenous inputs, and upper-ocean stratification. From our results we propose glacial, deglacial, and interglacial scenarios for environmental change in the Bering Sea. These changes seem to be primarily controlled by insolation and sea-level forcing which affect the strength of atmospheric pressure systems and sea-ice growth. The opening history of the Bering Strait is considered to have had an additional impact. High-resolution core logging data (color b*, XRF scans) strongly correspond to the Dansgaard-Oeschger climate variability registered in the NGRIP ice core and support an atmospheric coupling mechanism of Northern Hemisphere climates.