Estimativas da radiação global incidente em superfícies inclinadas com base na razáo de insolação

Estimating equations of global radiation based on the sunshine duration were proposed for horizontal surface and with inclination of 12.85, 22.85 and 32.85° facing the North in Botucatu, SP, Brazil, in monthly, seasonal and annual groupings of data. Simple linear correlations were applied (for definition of the linear and angular coefficients of Angstrom-Prescott model), in a database measured in all three inclinations in different periods (22.85°: 04/1998 to 07/2001; 12.85°: 08/2011 to 02/2003; and 32.85°: 03/2003 to 12/2007) concomitant with horizontal measures and sunshine duration. The statistical performance of the model was analysed by the means absolute error (MBE), the square root of the mean square error (RMSE) and the index adjustment (d). The minimum global radiation transmissivity varied from 14.35% in August (12.85°) to 27.86% in December (32.85°) and the maximum transmissivity ranged between 62.10% and 78.90%, for June (32.85°) and December (12.85°). Increasing the angle of inclination surface increased the scattering and decreased the index of adjustment and performance. The worst results were found for application of the seasonal and annual models in the months of autumn and winter for 32.85° (RMSE below 42.93% and adjustment superior to 0.4693).

Análise bayesiana do modelo fatorial dinâmico para um vetor de séries temporais utilizando a distribuição t multivariada

The multivariate t models are symmetric and with heavier tail than the normal distribution, important feature in financial data. In this theses is presented the Bayesian estimation of a dynamic factor model, where the factors follow a multivariate autoregressive model, using multivariate t distribution. Since the multivariate t distribution is complex, it was represented in this work as a mix between a multivariate normal distribution and a square root of a chi-square distribution. This method allowed to define the posteriors. The inference on the parameters was made taking a sample of the posterior distribution, through the Gibbs Sampler. The convergence was verified through graphical analysis and the convergence tests Geweke (1992) and Raftery & Lewis (1992a). The method was applied in simulated data and in the indexes of the major stock exchanges in the world.

Migração por equação de onda em meios anisotrópicos com correção de amplitude

Este trabalho discute dois aspectos da migração em profundidade através da continuação para baixo dos campos de onda: o tratamento de modos evanescentes e a correção da amplitude dos eventos migrados. Estes dois aspectos são discutidos em meios isotrópicos e para uma classe de meios anisotrópicos. Migrações por diferenças finitas (FD) e por diferenças finitas e Fourier (FFD) podem ser instáveis em meios com forte variação lateral de velocidade. Estes métodos utilizam aproximações de Padé reais para representar o operador que descreve a propagação de ondas descendentes. Estas abordagens não são capazes de tratar corretamente os modos evanescentes, o que pode levar à instabilidades numéricas em meios com forte variação lateral de velocidade. Uma solução possível para esse problema é utilizar aproximação de Padé complexa, que consegue melhor representar os modos evanescentes associados às reflexões pós-críticas, e neste trabalho esta aproximação é utilizada para obter algoritmos FD e híbrido FD/FFD estáveis para migração em meios transversalmente isotrópicos com eixo de simetria vertical (VTI), mesmo na presença de forte variação nas propriedades elásticas do meio. A estabilidade dos algoritmos propostos para meios VTI foi validada através da resposta ao impulso do operador de migração e pela sua aplicação na migração de dados sintéticos, em meios fortemente heterogêneos. Métodos de migração por equação de onda em meios heterogêneos não tratam corretamente a amplitude dos eventos durante a propagação. As equações de onda unidirecionais tradicionais descrevem corretamente apenas a parte cinemática da propagação do campo de onda. Assim, para uma descrição correta das amplitudes deve-se usar as equações de onda unidirecionais de amplitude verdadeira. Em meios verticalmente heterogêneos, as equações de onda unidirecionais de amplitude verdadeira podem ser resolvidas analiticamente. Em meios lateralmente heterogêneos, essas equações não possuem uma solução analítica. Mesmo soluções numéricas tendem a ser instáveis. Para melhorar a compensação de amplitude na migração, em meios com variação lateral de velocidade, é proposto uma aproximação estável para solução da equação de onda unidirecional de amplitude verdadeira. Esta nova aproximação é implementada nas migrações split-step e diferenças finitas e Fourier (FFD). O algoritmo split-step com correção de amplitude foi estendido para meios VTI. A migração pré e pós-empilhamento de dados sintéticos, em meios isotrópicos e anisotrópicos, confirmam o melhor tratamento das amplitudes e estabilidade dos algoritmos propostos.

Predição genômica para o peso ao sobreano via norma de reação em bovinos de corte

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Visualization, manipulation and force spectroscopy of cylindrical polymer brushes

The Ph.D. thesis deals with the conformational study of individual cylindrical polymer brush molecules using atomic force microscopy (AFM). Imaging combined with single molecule manipulation has been used to unravel questions concerning conformational changes, desorption behavior and mechanical properties of individual macromolecules and supramolecular structures. In the first part of the thesis (chapter 5) molecular conformations of cylindrical polymer brushes with poly-(N-isopropylacrylamide) (PNIPAM) side chains were studied in various environmental conditions. Also micelle formation of cylindrical brush-coil blockcopolymers with polyacrylic acid side chains and polystyrene coil have been visualized. In chapter 6 the mechanical properties of single cylindrical polymer brushes with (PNIPAM) side chains were investigated. Assuming that the brushes adopt equilibrium conformation on the surface, an average persistence length of lp= (29 ± 3) nm was determined by the end-to-end distance vs. contour length analysis in terms of the wormlike chain (WLC) model. Stretching experiments suggest that an exact determination of the persistence length using force extension curves is impeded by the contribution of the side chains. Modeling the stretching of the bottle brush molecule as extension of a dual spring (side chain and main chain) explains the frequently observed very low persistence length arising from a dominant contribution of the side chain elasticity at small overall contour lengths. It has been shown that it is possible to estimate the “true” persistence length of the bottle brush molecule from the intercept of a linear extrapolation of the inverse square root of the apparent persistence length vs. the inverse contour length plot. By virtue of this procedure a “true” persistence length of 140 nm for the PNIPAM brush molecules is predicted. Chapter 7 and 8 deal with the force-extension behavior of PNIPAM cylindrical brushes studied in poor solvent conditions. The behavior is shown to be qualitatively different from that in a good solvent. Force induced globule-cylinder conformational changes are monitored using “molecule specific force spectroscopy” which is a combined AFM imaging and SMFS technique. An interesting behavior of the unfolding-folding transitions of single collapsed PNIPAM brush molecules has been observed by force spectroscopy using the so called “fly-fishing” mode. A plateau force is observed upon unfolding the collapsed molecule, which is attributed to a phase transition from a collapsed brush to a stretched conformation. Chapter 9 describes the desorption behavior of single cylindrical polyelectrolyte brushes with poly-L-lysine side chains deposited on a mica surface using the “molecule specific force spectroscopy” technique to resolve statistical discrepancies usually observed in SMFS experiments. Imaging of the brushes and inferring the persistence length from a end-to-end distance vs. contour length analysis results in an average persistence length of lp = (25 ± 5) nm assuming that the chains adopt their equilibrium conformation on the surface. Stretching experiments carried out on individual poly-L-lysine brush molecules by force spectroscopy using the “fly-fishing” mode provide a persistence length in the range of 7-23 nm in reasonable accordance with the imaging results. In chapter 10 the conformational behavior of cylindrical poly-L-lysine brush-sodium dodecyl sulfate complexes was studied using AFM imaging. Surfactant induced cylinder to helix like to globule conformational transitions were observed.

Limiting theorems in statistical mechanics. The mean-field case.

The Curie-Weiss model is defined by ah Hamiltonian according to spins interact. For some particular values of the parameters, the sum of the spins normalized with square-root normalization converges or not toward Gaussian distribution. In the thesis we investigate some correlations between the behaviour of the sum and the central limit for interacting random variables.

Statistical characterization and development of summary measures of non-normal distributions of nuclear morphometry data from prostate cancer cells for use as prognostic indicators

Nuclear morphometry (NM) uses image analysis to measure features of the cell nucleus which are classified as: bulk properties, shape or form, and DNA distribution. Studies have used these measurements as diagnostic and prognostic indicators of disease with inconclusive results. The distributional properties of these variables have not been systematically investigated although much of the medical data exhibit nonnormal distributions. Measurements are done on several hundred cells per patient so summary measurements reflecting the underlying distribution are needed.^ Distributional characteristics of 34 NM variables from prostate cancer cells were investigated using graphical and analytical techniques. Cells per sample ranged from 52 to 458. A small sample of patients with benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH), representing non-cancer cells, was used for general comparison with the cancer cells.^ Data transformations such as log, square root and 1/x did not yield normality as measured by the Shapiro-Wilks test for normality. A modulus transformation, used for distributions having abnormal kurtosis values, also did not produce normality.^ Kernel density histograms of the 34 variables exhibited non-normality and 18 variables also exhibited bimodality. A bimodality coefficient was calculated and 3 variables: DNA concentration, shape and elongation, showed the strongest evidence of bimodality and were studied further.^ Two analytical approaches were used to obtain a summary measure for each variable for each patient: cluster analysis to determine significant clusters and a mixture model analysis using a two component model having a Gaussian distribution with equal variances. The mixture component parameters were used to bootstrap the log likelihood ratio to determine the significant number of components, 1 or 2. These summary measures were used as predictors of disease severity in several proportional odds logistic regression models. The disease severity scale had 5 levels and was constructed of 3 components: extracapsulary penetration (ECP), lymph node involvement (LN+) and seminal vesicle involvement (SV+) which represent surrogate measures of prognosis. The summary measures were not strong predictors of disease severity. There was some indication from the mixture model results that there were changes in mean levels and proportions of the components in the lower severity levels. ^

Tracking of plasma lipids and lipoproteins, within-person and year-to-year variability in plasma cholesterol levels among participants from age 8 to 18 in Project HeartBeat!

Coronary heart disease remains the leading cause of death in the United States and increased blood cholesterol level has been found to be a major risk factor with roots in childhood. Tracking of cholesterol, i.e., the tendency to maintain a particular cholesterol level relative to the rest of the population, and variability in blood lipid levels with increase in age have implications for cholesterol screening and assessment of lipid levels in children for possible prevention of further rise to prevent adulthood heart disease. In this study the pattern of change in plasma lipids, over time, and their tracking were investigated. Also, within-person variance and retest reliability defined as the square root of within-person variance for plasma total cholesterol, HDL-cholesterol, LDL-cholesterol, and triglycerides and their relation to age, sex and body mass index among participants from age 8 to 18 years were investigated. ^ In Project HeartBeat!, 678 healthy children aged 8, 11 and 14 years at baseline were enrolled and examined at 4-monthly intervals for up to 4 years. We examined the relationship between repeated observations by Pearson's correlations. Age- and sex-specific quintiles were calculated and the probability of participants to remain in the uppermost quintile of their respective distribution was evaluated with life table methods. Plasma total cholesterol, HDL-C and LDL-C at baseline were strongly and significantly correlated with measurements at subsequent visits across the sex and age groups. Plasma triglyceride at baseline was also significantly correlated with subsequent measurements but less strongly than was the case for other plasma lipids. The probability to remain in the upper quintile was also high (60 to 70%) for plasma total cholesterol, HDL-C and LDL-C. ^ We used a mixed longitudinal, or synthetic cohort design with continuous observations from age 8 to 18 years to estimate within person variance of plasma total cholesterol, HDL-C, LDL-C and triglycerides. A total of 5809 measurements were available for both cholesterol and triglycerides. A multilevel linear model was used. Within-person variance among repeated measures over up to four years of follow-up was estimated for total cholesterol, HDL-C, LDL-C and triglycerides separately. The relationship of within-person and inter-individual variance with age, sex, and body mass index was evaluated. Likelihood ratio tests were conducted by calculating the deviation of −2log (likelihood) within the basic model and alternative models. The square root of within-person variance provided the retest reliability (within person standard deviation) for plasma total cholesterol, HDL-C, LDL-C and triglycerides. We found 13.6 percent retest reliability for plasma cholesterol, 6.1 percent for HDL-cholesterol, 11.9 percent for LDL-cholesterol and 32.4 percent for triglycerides. Retest reliability of plasma lipids was significantly related with age and body mass index. It increased with increase in body mass index and age. These findings have implications for screening guidelines, as participants in the uppermost quintile tended to maintain their status in each of the age groups during a four-year follow-up. The magnitude of within-person variability of plasma lipids influences the ability to classify children into risk categories recommended by the National Cholesterol Education Program. ^

Frankliniella occidentalis (Pergande)

Las trampas adhesivas habitualmente se emplean para monitoreo pero como las de mayor tamaño también se recomiendan para control, se examinó el efecto del tamaño de las amarillas en la captura total de Frankliniella occidentalis. En pimiento en floración se utilizaron trampas de 5 tamaños en un diseño de bloques al azar (n = 10), replicado 5 veces. La comparación de la captura en ambas caras de la placa, mediante la prueba t-pareada, arrojó diferencias significativas en el 96 % de las pruebas. Los datos fueron separados para los análisis posteriores. La diferencia en la captura/cm2 entre los tamaños de trampa se comparó mediante ANOVA y Tukey. Por no registrarse diferencias significativas en el 90 % de los ensayos la eficacia de todos los tamaños fue similar. La captura total se ajustó al modelo de regresión: log Y = b log X + log a siendo Y = número de insectos capturados y X = medida lineal de su tamaño (raíz cuadrada de la superficie). El ajuste al modelo fue significativo y la pendiente se aproximó a 2. Por lo tanto, la captura total fue proporcional a la superficie total, no al perímetro ni a la relación perímetro/superficie. La utilización de trampas grandes resultaría antieconómica dado su dudosa eficacia como sistema de control.

Downhole variations in grain sizes at DSDP/ODP Hole 504B

The maximum grain sizes of plagioclase and magnetite in the groundmass of the sheeted dike complex drilled at Hole 504B have been measured. Downhole variations through a 440-m-long section show a crude zig-zag pattern consisting of a gradual decrease or increase followed by an abrupt jump. The gradual decrease or increase in grain size extends over many lithologic units, and hence, does not reflect variations in grain size within a single dike. Such a zig-zag pattern is well explained by grain-size variations through multiple dikes. By using the observed inclination of sheeted dikes of 81° ± 2.5°, thickness of the multiple dikes varies from 0.7 to 8.5 m and averages to 4 ± 1 m. The average thickness of individual dikes forming multiple dikes is 0.8 m. We expect such multiple dikes to be formed during rifting events beneath mid-oceanic spreading ridges. If the average expansion at rifting episodes is twice as wide as the average width of the multiple dike units, the full spreading rate of 7.2 cm/yr of Cocos Ridge gives 112 ± 33 yr for a time interval of the rifting. A simple one-dimensional conductive cooling model is applied to solidification of multiple dikes. Numerical simulations show that the grain-size variations observed through the drill hole are more consistent with a model where a new injection of a dike occurs periodically with a constant time interval rather than one where the next dike intrudes just after the solidification of the previous one. Grain-size variations within simple dikes from Iritono, Japan, and those for Makaopuhi lava lake, Hawaii, show that square root of crystallization time is linearly correlated with the logarithm of plagioclase size. By using an empirically derived relationship between these two variables, the variations of plagioclase size through Hole 504B are directly compared with the calculated times for crystallization. Each rifting episode at the Costa Rica Rift lasts for several years, and periodic injection of a new dike occurs into the center of a previously solidified multiple dike at time intervals varying from 1 to 12 months.

Pore pressure measurements on IODP Exp308 sites

Overpressures measured with pore pressure penetrometers during Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) Expedition 308 reach 70% and 60% of the hydrostatic effective stress (View the MathML source) in the first 200 meters below sea floor (mbsf) at Sites U1322 and U1324, respectively, in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico, offshore Louisiana. High overpressures are present within low permeability mudstones where there have been multiple, very large, submarine landslides during the Pleistocene. Beneath 200 mbsf at Site U1324, pore pressures drop significantly: there are no submarine landslides in this mixture of mudstone, siltstone, and sandstone. The penetrometer measurements did not reach the in situ pressure at the end of the deployment. We used a soil model to determine that an extrapolation approach based on the inverse of square route of time (View the MathML source) requires much less decay time to achieve a desirable accuracy than an inverse time (1/t) extrapolation. Expedition 308 examined how rapid and asymmetric sedimentation above a permeable aquifer drives lateral fluid flow, extreme pore pressures, and submarine landslides. We interpret that the high overpressures observed are driven by rapid sedimentation of low permeability material from the ancestral Mississippi River. Reduced overpressure at depth at Site U1324 suggests lateral flow (drainage) whereas high overpressure at Site U1322 requires inflow from below: lateral flow in the underlying permeable aquifer provides one mechanism for these observations. High overpressure near the seafloor reduces slope stability and provides a mechanism for the large submarine landslides and low regional gradient (2°) offshore from the Mississippi delta.

Curvature and velocity of methane-air Bunsen flame tips.

PIV and photographic recording are used to measure the velocity of the fresh gas and the shape of the reaction layer in a region around the tip of a methane-air Bunsen flame attached to a cylindrical burner. The results compare well with numerical simulations carried out with an infinite activation energy reaction model. The experimental and numerical results confirm that the well-known linear relation between flame velocity and flame stretch derived from asymptotic theory for weakly curved and strained flames is valid for small and moderate values of the flame stretch if the modified definition of stretch introduced by Echekki and Mungal (Proc Combust Inst 23:455–461, 1990) and Poinsot et al. (Combust Sci Technol 81:45–73, 1992) is used. However, the relation between flame velocity and modified stretch ceases to be linear and approaches a square root law for large values of the stretch, when the curvature of the flame tip becomes large compared to the inverse of the thickness of a planar flame.

Curvature and velocity of methane-air Bunsen flame tips

PIV and photographic recording are used to measure the velocity of the fresh gas and the shape of the reaction layer in a region around the tip of a methane- air Bunsen flame attached to a cylindrical burner. The results compare well with numerical simulations carried out with an infinite activation energy reaction model. The experimental and numerical results confirm that the well-known linear relation between flame velocity and flame stretch derived from asymptotic theory for weakly curved and strained flames is valid for small and moderate values of the flame stretch if the modified definition of stretch introduced by Echekki and Mungal (Proc Combust Inst 23:455–461,1990) and Poinsot et al. (Combust Sci Technol 81:45–73,1992) is used. However, the relation between flame velocity and modified stretch ceases to be linear and approaches a square root law for large values of the stretch, when the curvature of the flame tip becomes large compared to the inverse of the thickness of a planar flame

Macular atrophy in patients with long-term anti-VEGF treatment for neovascular age-related macular degeneration.

PURPOSE To identify the prevalence and progression of macular atrophy (MA) in neovascular age-related macular degeneration (AMD) patients under long-term anti-vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) therapy and to determine risk factors. METHOD This retrospective study included patients with neovascular AMD and ≥30 anti-VEGF injections. Macular atrophy (MA) was measured using near infrared and spectral-domain optical coherence tomography (SD-OCT). Yearly growth rate was estimated using square-root transformation to adjust for baseline area and allow for linearization of growth rate. Multiple regression with Akaike information criterion (AIC) as model selection criterion was used to estimate the influence of various parameters on MA area. RESULTS Forty-nine eyes (47 patients, mean age 77 ± 14) were included with a mean of 48 ± 13 intravitreal anti-VEGF injections (ranibizumab:37 ± 11, aflibercept:11 ± 6, mean number of injections/year 8 ± 2.1) over a mean treatment period of 6.2 ± 1.3 years (range 4-8.5). Mean best-corrected visual acuity improved from 57 ± 17 letters at baseline (= treatment start) to 60 ± 16 letters at last follow-up. The MA prevalence within and outside the choroidal neovascularization (CNV) border at initial measurement was 45% and increased to 74%. Mean MA area increased from 1.8 ± 2.7 mm(2) within and 0.5 ± 0.98 mm(2) outside the CNV boundary to 2.7 ± 3.4 mm(2) and 1.7 ± 1.8 mm(2) , respectively. Multivariate regression determined posterior vitreous detachment (PVD) and presence/development of intraretinal cysts (IRCs) as significant factors for total MA size (R(2) = 0.16, p = 0.02). Macular atrophy (MA) area outside the CNV border was best explained by the presence of reticular pseudodrusen (RPD) and IRC (R(2) = 0.24, p = 0.02). CONCLUSION A majority of patients show MA after long-term anti-VEGF treatment. Reticular pseudodrusen (RPD), IRC and PVD but not number of injections or treatment duration seem to be associated with the MA size.

Mechanisms of heat and mass transfer to and from single drops freely-suspended in an air stream

A specially-designed vertical wind tunnel was used to freely suspend individual liquid drops of 5 mm initial diameter to investigate drop dynamics, terminal velocity and heat and mass transfer rates. Droplets of distilled, de-ionised water, n-propanol, iso-butanol, monoethanolamine and heptane were studied over a temperature range of 50oC to 82oC. The effects of substances that may provide drop surface rigidity (e.g. surface active agents, binders and polymers) on mass transfer rates were investigated by doping distilled de-ionised water drops with sodium di-octyl sulfo-succinate surfactant. Mass transfer rates decreased with reduced drop oscillation as a result of surfactant addition, confirming the importance of droplet surface instability. Rigid naphthalene spheres and drops which formed a skin were also studied; the results confirmed the reduced transfer rates in the absence of drop fluidity. Following consideration of fundamental drop dynamics in air and experimental results from this study, a novel dimensionless group, the Oteng-Attakora, (OT), number was included in the mass transfer equation to account for droplet surface behaviour and for prediction of heat and mass transfer rates from single drops which exhibit surface instability at Re>=500. The OT number and the modified mass transfer equation are respectively: OT=(ava2/d).de1.5(d/) Sh = 2 + 0.02OT0.15Re0.88Sc0.33 Under all conditions drop terminal velocity increased linearly with the square root of drop diameter and the drag coefficient was 1. The data were correlated with a modified equation by Finlay as follows: CD=0.237.((Re/P0.13)1.55(1/We.P0.13) The relevance of the new model to practical evaporative spray processes is discussed.