961 resultados para Social Risk Hypothesis


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Purpose There has been little community-based research regarding multiple-type victimization experiences of young people in Asia, and none in Malaysia. This study aimed to estimate prevalence, explore gender differences, as well as describe typical perpetrators and family and social risk factors among Malaysian adolescents. Methods A cross-sectional survey of 1,870 students was conducted in 20 randomly selected secondary schools in Selangor state (mean age: 16 years; 58.8% female). The questionnaire included items on individual, family, and social background and different types of victimization experiences in childhood. Results Emotional and physical types of victimization were most common. A significant proportion of adolescents (22.1%) were exposed to more than one type, with 3% reporting all four types. Compared with females, males reported more physical, emotional, and sexual victimization. The excess of sexual victimization among boys was due to higher exposure to noncontact events, whereas prevalence of forced intercourse was equal for both genders (3.0%). Although adult male perpetrators predominate, female adults and peers of both genders also contribute substantially. Low quality of parent–child relationships and poor school and neighborhood environments had the strongest associations with victimization. Family structure (parental divorce, presence of step-parent or single parent, or household size), parental drug use, and rural/urban location were not influential in this sample. Conclusion This study extends the analysis of multiple-type victimization to a Malaysian population. Although some personal, familial, and social factors correlate with those found in western nations, there are cross-cultural differences, especially with regard to the nature of sexual violence based on gender and the influence of family structure.

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Postnatal depression (PND) is a significant global health issue, which not only impacts maternal wellbeing, but also infant development and family structures. Mental health disorders represent approximately 14% of global burden of disease and disability, including low and middle-income countries (LMIC), and PND has direct relevance to the Millennium Development Goals of reducing child mortality, improving maternal health, and creating global partnerships (United Nations, 2012; Guiseppe, Becker & Farmer, 2011). Emerging evidence suggests that PND in LMIC is similar to, or higher than in high-income countries (HIC), however, less than 10% of LMIC have prevalence data available (Fisher, Cabral de Mello, & Izutsu 2009; Lund et al., 2011). Whilst a small number of studies on maternal mental disorders have been published in Vietnam, only one specifically focuses on PND in a hospital-based sample. Also, community based mental health studies and information on mental health in rural areas of Vietnam is still scarce. The purpose of this study was to determine the prevalence of PND, and its associated social determinants in postnatal women in Thua Thien Hue Province, Central Vietnam. In order to identify social determinants relevant to the Central Vietnamese context, two qualitative studies and one community survey were undertaken. Associations between maternal mental health and infant health outcomes were also explored. The study was comprised of three phases. Firstly, iterative, qualitative interviews with Vietnamese health professionals (n = 17) and postpartum women (n = 15) were conducted and analysed using Kleinman's theory of explanatory models to identify narratives surrounding PND in the Vietnamese context (Kleinman, 1978). Secondly, a participatory concept mapping exercise was undertaken with two groups of health professionals (n = 12) to explore perceived risk and protective factors for postnatal mental health. Qualitative phases of the research elucidated narratives surrounding maternal mental health in the Vietnamese context such as son preference, use of traditional medicines, and the popularity of confinement practices such as having one to three months of complete rest. The qualitative research also revealed the construct of depression was not widely recognised. Rather, postpartum changes in mood were conceptualised as a loss of 'vital strength' following childbirth or 'disappointment'. Most women managed postpartum changes in mood within the family although some sought help from traditional medicine practitioners or biomedical doctors. Thirdly, a cross-sectional study of twelve randomly selected communes (six urban, six rural) in Thua Thien Hue Province was then conducted. Overall, 465 women with infants between 4 weeks and six months old participated, and 431 questionnaires were analysed. Women from urban (n = 216) and rural (n = 215) areas participated. All eligible women completed a structured interview about their health, basic demographics, and social circumstances. Maternal depression was measured using the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS) as a continuous variable. Multivariate generalised linear regression was conducted using PASW Statistics version 18.0 (2009). When using the conventional EPDS threshold for probable depression (EPDS score ~ 13) 18.1% (n = 78) of women were depressed (Gibson, McKenzie-McHarg, Shakespeare, Price & Gray, 2009). Interestingly, 20.4% of urban women (n = 44) had EPDS scores~ 13, which was a higher proportion than rural women, where 15.8% (n = 34) had EPDS scores ~ 13, although this difference was not statistically significant: t(429) = -0.689, p = 0.491. Whilst qualitative narratives identified infant gender and family composition, and traditional confinement practices as relevant to postnatal mood, these were not statistically significant in multivariate analysis. Rather, poverty, food security, being frightened of your husband or family members, experiences of intimate partner violence and breastfeeding difficulties had strong statistical associations. PND was also associated with having an infant with diarrhoea in the past two weeks, but not infant malnutrition or acute respiratory infections. This study is the first to explore maternal mental health in Central Vietnam, and provides further evidence that PND is a universally experienced phenomenon. The independent social risk factors of depressive symptoms identified such as poverty, food insecurity, experiences of violence and powerlessness, and relationship adversity points to women in a context of social suffering which is relevant throughout the world (Kleinman, Das & Lock, 1997). The culturally specific risk factors explored such as infant gender were not statistically significant when included in a multivariable model. However, they feature prominently in qualitative narratives surrounding PND in Vietnam, both in this study and previous literature. It appears that whilst infant gender may not be associated with PND per se, the reactions of close relatives to the gender of the baby can adversely affect maternal wellbeing. This study used a community based participatory research approach (CBPR) (Israel.2005). This approach encourages the knowledge produced to be used for public health interventions and workforce training in the community in which the research was conducted, and such work has commenced. These results suggest that packages of interventions for LMIC devised to address maternal mental health and infant wellbeing could be applied in Central Vietnam. Such interventions could include training lay workers to follow up postpartum women, and incorporating mental health screening and referral into primary maternal and child health care (Pate! et al., 2011; Rahman, Malik, Sikander & Roberts, 2008). Addressing the underlying social determinants of PND through poverty reduction and violence elimination programs is also recommended.

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Não obstante ao aumento do número de equipes de Saúde da Família no território brasileiro há disparidade na implantação da Estratégia Saúde da Família (ESF) em municípios de grande porte. Outras dificuldades enfrentadas referem-se aos recursos humanos em saúde (RHS). Nesse sentido, esta pesquisa objetivou analisar o cenário atual da gestão do trabalho na ESF nos municípios do Rio de Janeiro e Duque de Caxias. Metodologia: Estudo exploratório, de investigação narrativa, bibliográfica e documental, de abordagem qualitativa. A coleta de dados se deu em duas fases: pesquisa de material bibliográfico nas bases: LILACS, PAHO e WHOLIS, e de editais de processos seletivos e concursos públicos dos anos 2000, com vistas à contratação de profissionais de saúde para a ESF e; entrevistas semiestruturadas com gestores da ESF. O período de coleta perdurou entre agosto de 2010 e dezembro de 2011. Os documentos foram analisados à luz da estatística descritiva e as entrevistas submetidas à análise de conteúdo. Resultados: Escassez de literatura sobre a ESF nos municípios de Duque de Caxias e Rio de Janeiro. As contratações no Rio de Janeiro obedeceram a dois momentos: prefeitura e Organizações Sociais (OS) como contratantes. Em Duque de Caxias a contratação foi exclusividade da Prefeitura. No Rio de Janeiro os salários dos profissionais variaram entre R$ 728,59 (Agentes Comunitários de Saúde - ACS) e R$ 7.773,69 (médicos), contrastando com a isonomia salarial adotada em Duque de Caxias, com vencimentos ao redor de R$ 700,00 para os ACS, R$ 800,00 para nível técnico e; aproximadamente R$ 5.000,00 aos profissionais de nível superior. Os gestores sugerem que a maior rotatividade entre os médicos é motivada por carga horária excessiva; más condições de trabalho e, localização da unidade em áreas de risco social. As estratégias para atração e fixação profissional incluem: processos seletivos; garantia dos direitos trabalhistas e; abonos salariais, no caso do Rio de Janeiro e; flexibilização de carga horária, melhorias em infraestrutura e estratégias de qualificação, em Duque de Caxias. Entrevistas revelaram as maiores dificuldades na gestão da ESF: alta rotatividade, formação médica destoante com o SUS e, infraestrutura precária. Acrescenta-se o baixo salário para médicos em Duque de Caxias e, vínculos e salários distintos entre profissionais que exercem mesma função no Rio de Janeiro. Conclusões: A expansão da ESF nos grandes centros urbanos encontra obstáculos relacionados à gestão do trabalho que fragilizam sua consolidação. O Rio de Janeiro mostra-se mais atraente para os profissionais da ESF. O único diferencial de Duque de Caxias, sobretudo para odontólogos e enfermeiros, refere-se à contratação direta pela Prefeitura com vinculação estatutária, ainda que, eventual aumento salarial esteja atrelado ao de todos os servidores municipais. No Rio de Janeiro, a contratação sob regime da Consolidação das Leis do Trabalho revela-se uma proteção, posto que diante da possibilidade de perda de profissionais as OS elevam seus salários. Dentre as recomendações para fixação profissional incluem-se: incentivos salariais para atuação em regiões vulneráveis, melhorias em infraestrutura e, acoplação entre Instituições de Ensino Superior e rede de saúde.

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Este trabalho é fruto de uma pesquisa realizada a partir de reportagens e notícias veiculadas na mídia impressa e em redes sociais, de debates com conselheiros tutelares, do encontro com colegas psicólogos que são técnicos do conselho tutelar e da minha experiência como professora da rede municipal do RJ. Para tanto, utiliza algumas ferramentas da análise institucional de origem francesa como proposta por Lapassade e Lourau e contribuições de Guatarri sobre a produção de subjetividades, de Foucault sobre a sociedade disciplinar e Deleuze sobre as sociedades de controle. Para chegar ao cotidiano dos conselhos tutelares precisamos entender que ao longo dos anos 1990, com a implantação da doutrina neoliberal que reduziu investimentos na área social e instalou o chamado Estado mínimo no Brasil, vivemos um importante paradoxo segundo o qual, de um lado, tínhamos o ECA propondo a garantia de direitos por meio da participação democrática da sociedade civil em articulação com o governo e que previa um órgão - conselho tutelar - que deveria reivindicar direitos e, de outro, a política neoliberal, com seus ideais de desmobilização política, abandono das políticas sociais, privatização e individualização. No contato com conselhos tutelares de municípios de diversas regiões do país podemos perceber que este foi rapidamente distanciado das suas motivações políticas de mobilização da sociedade civil e transformado num "balcão de atendimento" cuja principal função passou a ser o atendimento dos "casos", ou seja, das demandas que lá chegam. Isso porque a "participação institucionalizada e regulada" (SCHEINVAR e LEMOS, 2012) acabou consolidando-se, já que participar deixou de ser um ato de intervenção dos movimentos sociais para se transformar numa simples adesão a campanhas propostas pelo sistema político. Hoje, podemos dizer que os conselheiros habitam o "mundo das faltas". Sendo assim, despotencializado o movimento reivindicativo acusa-se à falta de estrutura, do espaço físico, rede de atendimento, participação na elaboração da proposta orçamentária, política pública de qualidade, remuneração adequada, etc. E quem trabalha com a falta tem sempre o mesmo público alvo: a família pobre. As análises das práticas cotidianas dos conselheiros têm mostrado que os conselhos tutelares com o passar dos anos passaram a funcionar sob o tripé vigilância, enquadramento e punição. O termo "risco social" ou "vulnerabilidade social" é a cada dia mais difundido por conselheiros tutelares e especialistas da rede de atendimento que têm utilizado esse "rótulo" visando disciplinar e homogeneizar as pessoas em suas relações familiares como forma de enquadramento social.

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O objetivo dessa pesquisa é discutir o cenário de uso de crack no município do Rio de Janeiro contextualizado com a condição de vulnerabilidade e risco social, através do mapeamento das controvérsias entre os atores dessa rede. As percepções e experiências relatadas neste trabalho dizem respeito aos diferentes espaços profissionais voltados ao atendimento e prestação de serviço a este público. Inicialmente, é trazida a trajetória teórica e prática que levaram a construção desta dissertação. Foram relatadas experiências vividas nas ações conjuntas de abordagem com a SMDS (Secretaria Municipal de Desenvolvimento Social) e a prática como entrevistadora de usuários de crack na Pesquisa Nacional do Crack pela FIOCRUZ. No segundo momento, é feito um breve histórico da origem do crack e suas marcas pelo mundo. São trazidos também, dados sobre a droga no Brasil, em particular sua história no Rio de Janeiro. Ainda nesta sequência, é apresentada a política de Redução de Danos, mostrando de que maneira o sujeito é significado a partir dessa perspectiva, e suas principais contribuições pelo mundo e também no país. A dissertação é construída pela perspectiva das práticas profissionais do psicólogo SMDS pensada através da Teoria Ator-rede. Foi importante destacar as principais ações de política pública voltadas para essa temática, considerando os avanços na discussão da temática. Foram mapeadas e exploradas as relações entre os atores envolvidos nesta temática (usuários de crack, SMDS, SMS Secretaria Municipal de Saúde, Segurança Pública, Mídia, Sociedade), colocando em evidencia as controvérsias existentes nessas relações, como recolhimento compulsório. De maneira conclusiva, são trazidas as impressões tiradas ao final deste percurso, problematizando os papéis do poder público e daqueles que atuam para garantir a população que faz uso abusivo de crack e outras drogas o direito de acessar e exercia sua cidadania.

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Event-sampling and scans were used for collecting data on male-infant-male triadic interactions, and their effects on member spacing respectively in a group of Macaca thibetana at Mt. Emei in 1989. The group was partially provisioned by human visitors in seasons other than winter, and could be observed closely. In addition, a stable linear male-hierarchy among five males existed for two years since the end of 1987, providing a good social condition for this topic. The triadic interactions were specific to the birth season, and recognized as three types being on a continuum functionally changing from passive ''agonistic buffering'' (4.8%) to active spatial cohesion, which resulted in a significant decline of intermale distances. Positive correlations were documented between the triad initiation rate and the number of females in consort with the males in the mating season (MS), and between the triad reception rate and the number of infants in proximity to the males in the MS when maternal care was significantly reduced. Thus the male's mating effort and kin/sexual selection may deeply be involved in the triad of this species. Considering that the two triad-species, M. sylvanus and M. thibetana, had different levels of paternity, but shared similar foraging conditions, and showed similar intensities of male-infant caretaking, the triad was very likely a byproduct of male-infant caretaking, which was probably shaped to compensate heavy maternal investment to young offspring in harsh conditions. Accordingly, the long-term arguments about the triad in M. sylvanus can be united to a model of the way in which ''male-infant caretaking'' hypothesis works ultimately, and ''regulating social relations'' hypothesis does proximately.

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Risk perception is one of important subjects in management psychology and cognitive psychology. It is of great value in the theory and practice to investigate the social risk events that the public cares a lot especially in this social transition period. Furthermore, this study explored the factors that influence the risk perception and the results caused by risk perception. A survey including 30 hazards and 8 risk attributes was designed and distributed to about 3, 200 residents of 8 districts, Beijing. The major findings are listed as following: Firstly, combining the methods of system science and psychology, GAE program was used to indentify 7 groups of social risk events, such as national safe, government management, social stability, general mood of society, economic and finance, resources and environment & daily life problems. This study provided substance for the following studies and it was also a new attempt in research method which is of certain reference value for the related researches. Secondly, a scale of societal risk perception was designed and 2 factors were identified (Dread Risk & Unknown Risk). Reliability analysis, EFA and CFA show the reliability and validity of the societal risk questionnaire is good enough. The investigation using this scale showed that older participants and higher socioeconomic status perceived the societal hazards to be more threatening than did younger participants and lower socioeconomic status. However, there is no gender difference. Thirdly, structural equation model was used to analyze the influence factors and mechanism of societal risk perception. Risk taking, government support and social justice could influence societal risk perception directly. Government support moderated the relationship between government trust and societal risk perception. Societal risk perception influenced life satisfaction, public policy preferences and social development belief. Multi-group analysis was used to find out that the participants who have different socioeconomic status express different mechanism. Fourthly, the result of the research was used to explore the risk event of 2008 Olympic game. The results showed that government support and preparation of Olympic game influenced societal risk perception directly. Preparation moderated the relationship between government trust and risk perception. Risk perception influenced worry, effect of Olympic game and belief of successl. This result proved that risk perception could be used as an indicator. The indictor of risk perception was used to identify the characteristics of higher risk perception group. Finally, suggestions to the related decision were provide to the government.

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© 2013 The Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour.Social complexity, often estimated by group size, is seen as driving the complexity of vocal signals, but its relation to olfactory signals, which arguably arose to function in nonsocial realms, remains underappreciated. That olfactory signals also may mediate within-group interaction, vary with social complexity and promote social cohesion underscores a potentially crucial link with sociality. To examine that link, we integrated chemical and behavioural analyses to ask whether olfactory signals facilitate reproductive coordination in a strepsirrhine primate, the Coquerel's sifaka, Propithecus coquereli. Belonging to a clade comprising primarily solitary, nocturnal species, the diurnal, group-living sifaka represents an interesting test case. Convergent with diurnal, group-living lemurids, sifakas expressed chemically rich scent signals, consistent with the social complexity hypothesis for communication. These signals minimally encoded the sex of the signaller and varied with female reproductive state. Likewise, sex and female fertility were reflected in within-group scent investigation, scent marking and overmarking. We further asked whether, within breeding pairs, the stability or quality of the pair's bond influences the composition of glandular signals and patterns of investigatory or scent-marking behaviour. Indeed, reproductively successful pairs tended to show greater similarity in their scent signals than did reproductively unsuccessful pairs, potentially through chemical convergence. Moreover, scent marking was temporally coordinated within breeding pairs and was influenced by past reproductive success. That olfactory signalling reflects social bondedness or reproductive history lends support to recent suggestions that the quality of relationships may be a more valuable proxy than group size for estimating social complexity. We suggest that olfactory signalling in sifakas is more complex than previously recognized and, as in other socially integrated species, can be a crucial mechanism for promoting group cohesion and maintaining social bonds. Thus, the evolution of sociality may well be reflected in the complexity of olfactory signalling.

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Background: We aimed to test whether the three classical hypotheses of the interaction between posttraumatic symptomatology and substance use (high risk of trauma exposure, susceptibility for posttraumatic symptomatology, and self-medication of symptoms), may be useful in the understanding of substance use among burn patients. Methods: We analysed substance use data (nicotine, alcohol, cannabis, amphetamines, cocaine, opiates, and tranquilizers) and psychopathology measures among burn patients admitted to a Burns Unit and enrolled in a longitudinal observational study. Lifetime substance use information (n = 246) was incorporated to analyses aiming to test the high risk hypothesis. Only patients assessed for psychopathology in a six months follow-up (n = 183) were included in prospective analyses testing the susceptibility and self-medication hypotheses. Results: Regarding the high risk hypothesis, results show a higher proportion of heroin and tranquilizer users compared to the general population. Furthermore, in line with the susceptibility hypothesis, higher levels of symptomatology were found in lifetime alcohol, tobacco and drug users during recovery. The self-medication hypothesis could be tested partially due to the hospital stay “cleaning” effect, but severity of symptoms was linked to caffeine, nicotine, alcohol and cannabis use after discharge. Conclusions: We found that the three classical hypotheses could be used to understand the link between traumatic experiences and substance use explaining different patterns of burn patient’s risk for trauma exposure and emergence of symptomatology.

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BACKGROUND: Growing social inequities have made it important for general practitioners to verify if patients can afford treatment and procedures. Incorporating social conditions into clinical decision-making allows general practitioners to address mismatches between patients' health-care needs and financial resources. OBJECTIVES: Identify a screening question to, indirectly, rule out patients' social risk of forgoing health care for economic reasons, and estimate prevalence of forgoing health care and the influence of physicians' attitudes toward deprivation. DESIGN: Multicenter cross-sectional survey. PARTICIPANTS: Forty-seven general practitioners working in the French-speaking part of Switzerland enrolled a random sample of patients attending their private practices. MAIN MEASURES: Patients who had forgone health care were defined as those reporting a household member (including themselves) having forgone treatment for economic reasons during the previous 12 months, through a self-administered questionnaire. Patients were also asked about education and income levels, self-perceived social position, and deprivation levels. KEY RESULTS: Overall, 2,026 patients were included in the analysis; 10.7% (CI95% 9.4-12.1) reported a member of their household to have forgone health care during the 12 previous months. The question "Did you have difficulties paying your household bills during the last 12 months" performed better in identifying patients at risk of forgoing health care than a combination of four objective measures of socio-economic status (gender, age, education level, and income) (R(2) = 0.184 vs. 0.083). This question effectively ruled out that patients had forgone health care, with a negative predictive value of 96%. Furthermore, for physicians who felt powerless in the face of deprivation, we observed an increase in the odds of patients forgoing health care of 1.5 times. CONCLUSION: General practitioners should systematically evaluate the socio-economic status of their patients. Asking patients whether they experience any difficulties in paying their bills is an effective means of identifying patients who might forgo health care.

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En l’actualitat el burnout o síndrome de cremar-se per la feina és considerat un risc emergent als països occidentals essent el col·lectiu docent un dels més afectats. L’espai europeu d’educació superior proposa un nou rol pel professor que haurà de ser compaginat amb la gestió, la recerca i la transferència de coneixement. En la present recerca s’analitza el nivell de burnout en una mostra formada per 42 docents (mitjana d’edat: 37,21 anys; D.T.: 8,98; 70,8% dones) del departament de Psicologia de la Universitat de Girona. El burnout s’ha avaluat amb el Maslach Burnout Inventory (MBI) així com amb un qüestionari d’elaboració pròpia que recull variables sociodemogràfiques, característiques del tipus de treball i de l’ús del temps lliure, el locus de control i el burnout percebut. Els resultats obtinguts indiquen valors mitjans en les puntuacions de les dimensions Cansament Emocional i Despersonalització, i valors elevats en Realització Personal. El 20,5% dels docents es percep cremat per la feina

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Estos servicios apenas contribuyen a solucionar los problemas sociales que se vienen produciendo en los últimos años en los diversos modelos de familia. La prensa y la bibliografía especializada se han hecho eco de las dificultades que padecen la mayoría de las familias. Mientras tanto las prestaciones familiares de la seguridad social son muy escasas, aumenta la demanda de apoyo a la familia en los servicios sociales de base y las administraciones (Ministerio, Comunidades Autónomas, Comunidades Locales) desarrollo de programas para familia desfavorecidas y en situación de riesgo social. Existe una responsabilidad pública que debe procurar servicios sociales de apoyo a la familia con miembros dependientes (mayores, discapacitados) y sobre todo con menores de seis años, también deben colaborar las empresas. Las personas empleadas y con responsabilidades familiares verán disminuir el estrés asociado a la doble tarea, familiar y laboral, si se adoptan medidas empresariales que hagan posible la conciliación de la vida familiar con el trabajo en función de la flexibilidad de horarios o de la movilidad geográfica y funcional requerida por las personas trabajadoras con responsabilidades familiares.

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La tesi "Present i perspectives de futur dels programes socioeducatius en medi obert a les comarques gironines: una avaluació aproximada", està estructurada en tres apartats d'extensió desigual. Primer el marc teòric conformat per sis capítols. Segon el marc metodològic director de la recerca. I finalment les conclusions, constituïdes en tres seccions on les dues primeres fan referència als resultats de l'anàlisi de les aportacions del treball de camp, mentre que la tercera explicita els resultats i constatacions finals de la tesi.

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Structural shifts in labour markets and in households are impacting on the capacity of households and families to deal with risk. In Australia the post-Federation and post-war social settlement, based on the gendered assumptions underpinning the male breadwinner/female carer model, is no longer viable in an era of increasingly precarious employment, diverse family forms and deepening inequalities. Labour market and industrial relations changes, when combined with major demographic shifts such as divorce and population ageing, and increasing expectations for community care are contributing to a 'care crunch'. The article canvasses the challenge of developing a social risk protection framework that balances caring, work and quality of life.

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Migrants, such as birds or representatives of other taxa, usually make use of several stopover sites to cover the distance between their site of origin and destination. Potentially, multiple routes exist, but often little is known about the causes and consequences of alternative migration routes. Apart from their geographical distribution, the suitability of potential sites might play an important role in the animals’ decisions for a particular itinerary. We used an optimal-migration model to test three nonmutually exclusive hypotheses leading to variations in the spring migration routes of a subspecies of Red Knot, Calidris canutus islandica, which migrates from wintering grounds in Western Europe to breeding grounds in Greenland and the Canadian Arctic: the breeding location hypothesis, the energy budget hypothesis, and the predation risk hypothesis. Varying only breeding location, the model predicted that birds breeding in the Canadian Arctic and on West Greenland stop over on Iceland, whereas birds breeding in East and Northeast Greenland migrate via northern Norway, a prediction that is supported by empirical findings. Energy budgets on stopover sites had a strong influence on the choice of route and staging times. Varying foraging-intensity and mass-dependent predation risk prompted the birds to use less risky sites, if possible. The effect of simultaneous changes in the energy budget and predation risk strongly depended on the site where these occurred. Our findings provide potential explanations for the observations that C. canutus islandica uses a diverse array of migration routes. Scrutinizing the three alternative driving forces for the choice of migratory routes awaits further, specific data collection in rapidly developing fields of research (e.g., predation risk assessment, GPS tracking). Generally, the type of modeling presented here may not only highlight alternative explanations, but also direct follow-up empirical research.