Forecasting fuel ethanol consumption in Brazil by time series models: 2006-2012

This article analysed scenarios for Brazilian consumption of ethanol for the period 2006 to 2012. The results show that if the country`s GDP sustains a 4.6% a year growth, domestic consumption of fuel ethanol could increase to 25.16 billion liters in this period, which is a volume relatively close to the forecasted gasoline consumption of 31 billion liters. At a lower GDP growth of 1.22% a year, gasoline consumption would be reduced and domestic ethanol consumption in Brazil would be no higher than 18.32 billion liters. Contrary to the current situation, forecasts indicated that hydrated ethanol consumption could become much higher than anhydrous consumption in Brazil. The former is being consumed in cars moved exclusively by ethanol and flex-fuel cars, successfully introduced in the country at 2003. Flex cars allow Brazilian consumers to choose between gasoline and hydrated ethanol and immediately switch to whichever fuel presents the most favourable relative price.

Leaf area index estimation with MODIS reflectance time series and model inversion during full rotations of Eucalyptus plantations

The leaf area index (LAI) of fast-growing Eucalyptus plantations is highly dynamic both seasonally and interannually, and is spatially variable depending on pedo-climatic conditions. LAI is very important in determining the carbon and water balance of a stand, but is difficult to measure during a complete stand rotation and at large scales. Remote-sensing methods allowing the retrieval of LAI time series with accuracy and precision are therefore necessary. Here, we tested two methods for LAI estimation from MODIS 250m resolution red and near-infrared (NIR) reflectance time series. The first method involved the inversion of a coupled model of leaf reflectance and transmittance (PROSPECT4), soil reflectance (SOILSPECT) and canopy radiative transfer (4SAIL2). Model parameters other than the LAI were either fixed to measured constant values, or allowed to vary seasonally and/or with stand age according to trends observed in field measurements. The LAI was assumed to vary throughout the rotation following a series of alternately increasing and decreasing sigmoid curves. The parameters of each sigmoid curve that allowed the best fit of simulated canopy reflectance to MODIS red and NIR reflectance data were obtained by minimization techniques. The second method was based on a linear relationship between the LAI and values of the GEneralized Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index (GESAVI), which was calibrated using destructive LAI measurements made at two seasons, on Eucalyptus stands of different ages and productivity levels. The ability of each approach to reproduce field-measured LAI values was assessed, and uncertainty on results and parameter sensitivities were examined. Both methods offered a good fit between measured and estimated LAI (R(2) = 0.80 and R(2) = 0.62 for model inversion and GESAVI-based methods, respectively), but the GESAVI-based method overestimated the LAI at young ages. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

MODIS NDVI time-series allow the monitoring of Eucalyptus plantation biomass

The use of remote sensing is necessary for monitoring forest carbon stocks at large scales. Optical remote sensing, although not the most suitable technique for the direct estimation of stand biomass, offers the advantage of providing large temporal and spatial datasets. In particular, information on canopy structure is encompassed in stand reflectance time series. This study focused on the example of Eucalyptus forest plantations, which have recently attracted much attention as a result of their high expansion rate in many tropical countries. Stand scale time-series of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) were obtained from MODIS satellite data after a procedure involving un-mixing and interpolation, on about 15,000 ha of plantations in southern Brazil. The comparison of the planting date of the current rotation (and therefore the age of the stands) estimated from these time series with real values provided by the company showed that the root mean square error was 35.5 days. Age alone explained more than 82% of stand wood volume variability and 87% of stand dominant height variability. Age variables were combined with other variables derived from the NDVI time series and simple bioclimatic data by means of linear (Stepwise) or nonlinear (Random Forest) regressions. The nonlinear regressions gave r-square values of 0.90 for volume and 0.92 for dominant height, and an accuracy of about 25 m(3)/ha for volume (15% of the volume average value) and about 1.6 m for dominant height (8% of the height average value). The improvement including NDVI and bioclimatic data comes from the fact that the cumulative NDVI since planting date integrates the interannual variability of leaf area index (LAI), light interception by the foliage and growth due for example to variations of seasonal water stress. The accuracy of biomass and height predictions was strongly improved by using the NDVI integrated over the two first years after planting, which are critical for stand establishment. These results open perspectives for cost-effective monitoring of biomass at large scales in intensively-managed plantation forests. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Relating MODIS vegetation index time-series with structure, light absorption and stem production of fast-growing Eucalyptus plantations

By allowing the estimation of forest structural and biophysical characteristics at different temporal and spatial scales, remote sensing may contribute to our understanding and monitoring of planted forests. Here, we studied 9-year time-series of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on a network of 16 stands in fast-growing Eucalyptus plantations in Sao Paulo State, Brazil. We aimed to examine the relationships between NDVI time-series spanning entire rotations and stand structural characteristics (volume, dominant height, mean annual increment) in these simple forest ecosystems. Our second objective was to examine spatial and temporal variations of light use efficiency for wood production, by comparing time-series of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (APAR) with inventory data. Relationships were calibrated between the NDVI and the fractions of intercepted diffuse and direct radiation, using hemispherical photographs taken on the studied stands at two seasons. APAR was calculated from the NDVI time-series using these relationships. Stem volume and dominant height were strongly correlated with summed NDVI values between planting date and inventory date. Stand productivity was correlated with mean NDVI values. APAR during the first 2 years of growth was variable between stands and was well correlated with stem wood production (r(2) = 0.78). In contrast, APAR during the following years was less variable and not significantly correlated with stem biomass increments. Production of wood per unit of absorbed light varied with stand age and with site index. In our study, a better site index was accompanied both by increased APAR during the first 2 years of growth and by higher light use efficiency for stem wood production during the whole rotation. Implications for simple process-based modelling are discussed. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

IDENTIFICATION OF THE STATE OF A WET SPOUTED BED THROUGH TIME-FREQUENCY ANALYSIS OF PRESSURE FLUCTUATION TIME SERIES

The feasibility of detecting instability in wet spouted beds via pressure fluctuation (PF) time-series analyses was investigated. Experiments were carried out in a cylindrical Plexiglas column of diameter 150 mm with a conical base of internal angle 60 degrees, an inlet orifice diameter of 25 mm and glass beads of diameter 2.4 mm. Transducers at several axial positions measured PF time series with incremental addition of aqueous sucrose solutions of different concentrations. Liquid addition affected the spouted bed dynamics, causing irregular spouting, increased voidage in the annulus, increased fountain height, irregular annulus height, channelling, agglomeration, and adhesion of particles to the column walls. Autocorrelations indicated the appearance of periodicities in the PF signals with increasing sucrose addition. Dominant peaks in power-spectral density developed at low frequencies with changing system dynamics. The results indicate that PF signals furnish relevant information on system dynamics, useful for monitoring and control of spouted bed operations such as particle coating and drying of paste-like materials.

Synthesis, antichagasic in vitro evaluation, cytotoxicity assays, molecular modeling and SAR/QSAR studies of a 2-phenyl-3-(1-phenyl-1H-pyrazol-4-yl)-acrylic acid benzylidene-carbohydrazide series

Chagas disease (American trypanosomiasis) is one of the most important parasitic diseases with serious social and economic impacts mainly on Latin America. This work reports the synthesis, in vitro trypanocidal evaluation, cytotoxicity assays, and molecular modeling and SAR/QSAR studies of a new series of N-phenylpyrazole benzylidene-carbohydrazides. The results pointed 6k (X = H, Y = p-NO(2), pIC(50) = 4.55 M) and 6l (X = F, Y = p-CN, pIC(50) = 4.27 M) as the most potent derivatives compared to crystal violet (pIC(50) = 3.77 M). The halogen-benzylidene-carbohydrazide presented the lowest potency whereas 6l showed the most promising pro. le with low toxicity (0% of cell death). The best equation from the 4D-QSAR analysis (Model 1) was able to explain 85% of the activity variability. The QSAR graphical representation revealed that bulky X-substituents decreased the potency whereas hydrophobic and hydrogen bond acceptor Y-substituents increased it. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Useful representations of series solutions for transport problems

Simple techniques are presented for rearrangement of an infinite series in a systematic way such that the convergence of the resulting expression is accelerated. These procedures also allow calculation of required boundary derivatives. Several examples of conduction and diffusion-reaction problems illustrate the methods.

Sudanese Refugee Narratives of Social Distress

This working paper provides an 'archive' of Sudanese refugee narratives of distress. The narratives have been interpreted within through the lens of Bourdieu's social distress.

Free volume and water uptake in a copolymer hydrogel series

A copolymer of X-hydroxyethyl methacrylate (HEMA) with 2-ethoxy ethyl methacrylate (EEMA) was synthesized and the molecular mobility, free volume, and density properties examined as a function of composition. These properties were correlated with the equilibrium water uptake in order to determine which of the properties were most influential in causing high water sorption, as these materials are suitable candidates for hydrogel systems. It was found that the polar HEMA repeat unit results in a rigid, glassy sample at room temperature due to the high degree of hydrogen bonding between chains whereas high EEMA content leads to rubbery samples with subambient glass transition temperatures. The free volume properties on the molecular scale measured by positron annihilation Lifetime spectroscopy (PALS) showed that higher HEMA content led to smaller, fewer holes and a lower free volume fraction than EEMA. Therefore the high water uptake of HEEMA-containing copolymers is largely related to the high polarity of the HEMA unit compared to EEMA, despite the low content of free volume into which the water can initially diffuse. Trends in density with copolymer composition, as measured on a macroscopic level, differs to that seen by PALS and indicates that the two techniques are measuring different scales of packing. (C) 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

The structure of quantum Lie algebras for the classical series, B-l, C-l and D-l

The structure constants of quantum Lie algebras depend on a quantum deformation parameter q and they reduce to the classical structure constants of a Lie algebra at q = 1. We explain the relationship between the structure constants of quantum Lie algebras and quantum Clebsch-Gordan coefficients for adjoint x adjoint --> adjoint We present a practical method for the determination of these quantum Clebsch-Gordan coefficients and are thus able to give explicit expressions for the structure constants of the quantum Lie algebras associated to the classical Lie algebras B-l, C-l and D-l. In the quantum case the structure constants of the Cartan subalgebra are non-zero and we observe that they are determined in terms of the simple quantum roots. We introduce an invariant Killing form on the quantum Lie algebras and find that it takes values which are simple q-deformations of the classical ones.

Hepatic structure-pharmacokinetic relationships: The hepatic disposition and metabolite kinetics of a homologous series of O-acyl derivatives of salicylic acid

1 The hepatic disposition and metabolite kinetics of a homologous series of O-acyl (acetyl, propionyl, butanoyl, pentanoyl, hexanoyl and octanoyl) esters of salicylic acid (C2SA, C3SA, C4SA, C5SA, C6SA and C8SA, respectively) was determined using a single-pass, in-sills rat liver preparation. 2 The hepatic venous outflow profiles for the parent esters and the generated metabolite, salicylic acid (SA) were analysed by HPLC. Non-parametric moments analysis was used to determine the area under the curve (AUC'), mean transit time (MTT) and normalized variance (CV2) for the parent esters and generated SA. 3 Pregenerated SA ([C-14]-salicylic acid) was injected into each liver with the parent ester to determine its distribution characteristics. 4 The overall recovery of ester plus metabolite was 89% of the ester dose injected and independent of the ester carbon number, suggesting that ester extraction was due to hepatic metabolism to salicylic acid. 5 The metabolite AUC' value increased directly with the lipophilicity of the parent ester (from 0.12 for C2SA to 0.95 for C8SA). By contrast, the parent AUC' decreased with the lipophilicity (from 0.85 for C2SA to zero for C8SA). The metabolite MTT value also showed a trend to increase with the lipophilicity of the parent ester (from 15.72 s for C3SA to 61.97 s for C8SA). However, the parent MTT value shows no significant change across the series. 6 The two-compartment dispersion model was used to derive the kinetic parameters for parent ester, pregenerated SA and generated SA. Consequently, these parameters were used to estimate the values of AUG', MITT and CV2 for the parent ester and metabolite. The moments values obtained using the two-compartment dispersion model show similar trends to the corresponding moments values obtained from the outflow profiles using a non-parametric approach. 7 The more lipophilic aspirin analogues are more confined to the portal circulation after oral administration than aspirin due to their more extensive hepatic elimination avoiding systemic prostacyclin inhibition. Given that aspirin's selectivity as an anti-thrombotic agent has been postulated to be due to selective anti-platelet effects in the portal circulation, the more lipophilic and highly extracted analogues are potentially more selective anti-thrombotic agents than aspirin.

Hepatic disposition and metabolite kinetics of a homologous series of diflunisal esters

The hepatic disposition and metabolite kinetics of a homologous series of diflunisal O-acyl esters (acetyl, butanoyl, pentanoyl, anti hexanoyl) were determined using a single-pass perfused in situ rat liver preparation. The experiments were conducted using 2% BSA Krebs-Henseleit buffer (pH 7.4), and perfusions were performed at 30 mL/min in each liver. O-Acyl esters of diflunisal and pregenerated diflunisal were injected separately into the portal vein. The venous outflow samples containing the esters and metabolite diflunisal were analyzed by high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). The normalized outflow concentration-time profiles for each parent ester and the formed metabolite, diflunisal, were analyzed using statistical moments analysis and the two-compartment dispersion model. Data (presented as mean +/- standard error for triplicate experiments) was compared using ANOVA repeated measures, significance level P < 0.05. The hepatic availability (AUC'), the fraction of the injected dose recovered in the outflowing perfusate, for O-acetyldiflunisal (C2D = 0.21 +/- 0.03) was significantly lower than the other esters (0.34-0.38). However, R-N/f(u), the removal efficiency number R-N divided by the unbound fraction in perfusate f(u), which represents the removal efficiency of unbound ester by the liver, was significantly higher for the most lipophilic ester (O-hexanoyldiflunisal, C6D = 16.50 +/- 0.22) compared to the other members of the series (9.57 to 11.17). The most lipophilic ester, C6D, had the largest permeability surface area (PS) product (94.52 +/- 38.20 mt min-l g-l liver) and tissue distribution value VT (35.62 +/- 11.33 mL g(-1) liver) in this series. The MTT of these O-acyl esters of diflunisal were not significantly different from one another. However, the metabolite diflunisal MTTs tended to increase with the increase in the parent ester lipophilicity (11.41 +/- 2.19 s for C2D to 38.63 +/- 9.81 s for C6D). The two-compartment dispersion model equations adequately described the outflow profiles for the parent esters and the metabolite diflunisal formed from the O-acyl esters of diflunisal in the liver.

On the use of trace additions of Sn to enhance sintered 2xxx series Al powder alloys

The mechanical properties of a typical sintered aluminium alloy (Al-4.4Cu-0.8Si-0.5Mg) have been improved by the simultaneous use of trace additions of Sn, high sintering temperatures and modified heat treatments. Tin increases densification, but the Sn concentration is limited to less than or equal to 0.1wt% because incipient melting occurs during solution treatment at higher Sn levels. A sintering temperature of 620 degrees C increases the liquid volume over that formed at the conventional 590 degrees C sintering temperature. However, the higher sintering temperature results in the formation of an embrittling phase which can be eliminated if solution treatment is incorporated into the sintering cycle (a modified TS heat treatment). These conditions produce a tensile strength of 375 MPa, an increase of nearly 20% over the unmodified alloy. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science S.A. All rights reserved.