Seismic Hazard and Microzonation Studies using Geographic Information System - A Case Study of Bangalore city

Seismic hazard and microzonation of cities enable to characterize the potential seismic areas that need to be taken into account when designing new structures or retrofitting the existing ones. Study of seismic hazard and preparation of geotechnical microzonation maps has been attempted using Geographical Information System (GIS). GIS will provide an effective solution for integrating different layers of information thus providing a useful input for city planning and in particular input to earthquake resistant design of structures in an area. Seismic hazard is the study of expected earthquake ground motions at any point on the earth. Microzonation is the process of sub division of region in to number of zones based on the earthquake effects in the local scale. Seismic microzonation is the process of estimating response of soil layers under earthquake excitation and thus the variation of ground motion characteristic on the ground surface. For the seismic microzonation, geotechnical site characterization need to be assessed at local scale (micro level), which is further used to assess of the site response and liquefaction susceptibility of the sites. Seismotectonic atlas of the area having a radius of 350km around Bangalore has been prepared with all the seismogenic sources and historic earthquake events (a catalogue of about 1400 events since 1906). We have attempted to carryout the site characterization of Bangalore by collating conventional geotechnical boreholes data (about 900 borehole data with depth) and integrated in GIS. 3-D subsurface model of Bangalore prepared using GIS is shown in Figure 1.Further, Shear wave velocity survey based on geophysical method at about 60 locations in the city has been carried out in 220 square Kms area. Site response and local site effects have been evaluated using 1-dimensional ground response analysis. Spatial variability of soil overburden depths, ground surface Peak Ground Acceleration’s(PGA), spectral acceleration for different frequencies, liquefaction susceptibility have been mapped in the 220 sq km area using GIS.ArcInfo software has been used for this purpose. These maps can be used for the city planning and risk & vulnerability studies. Figure 2 shows a map of peak ground acceleration at rock level for Bangalore city. Microtremor experiments were jointly carried out with NGRI scientists at about 55 locations in the city and the predominant frequency of the overburden soil columns were evaluated.

Seismic hazard map of Coimbatore using subsurface fault rupture

This study presents the future seismic hazard map of Coimbatore city, India, by considering rupture phenomenon. Seismotectonic map for Coimbatore has been generated using past earthquakes and seismic sources within 300 km radius around the city. The region experienced a largest earthquake of moment magnitude 6.3 in 1900. Available earthquakes are divided into two categories: one includes events having moment magnitude of 5.0 and above, i.e., damaging earthquakes in the region and the other includes the remaining, i.e., minor earthquakes. Subsurface rupture character of the region has been established by considering the damaging earthquakes and total length of seismic source. Magnitudes of each source are estimated by assuming the subsurface rupture length in terms of percentage of total length of sources and matched with reported earthquake. Estimated magnitudes match well with the reported earthquakes for a RLD of 5.2% of the total length of source. Zone of influence circles is also marked in the seismotectonic map by considering subsurface rupture length of fault associated with these earthquakes. As earthquakes relive strain energy that builds up on faults, it is assumed that all the earthquakes close to damaging earthquake have released the entire strain energy and it would take some time for the rebuilding of strain energy to cause a similar earthquake in the same location/fault. Area free from influence circles has potential for future earthquake, if there is seismogenic source and minor earthquake in the last 20 years. Based on this rupture phenomenon, eight probable locations have been identified and these locations might have the potential for the future earthquakes. Characteristic earthquake moment magnitude (M-w) of 6.4 is estimated for the seismic study area considering seismic sources close to probable zones and 15% increased regional rupture character. The city is divided into several grid points at spacing of 0.01 degrees and the peak ground acceleration (PGA) due to each probable earthquake is calculated at every grid point in city by using the regional attenuation model. The maximum of all these eight PGAs is taken for each grid point and the final PGA map is arrived. This map is compared to the PGA map developed based on the conventional deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA) approach. The probable future rupture earthquakes gave less PGA than that of DSHA approach. The occurrence of any earthquake may be expected in near future in these eight zones, as these eight places have been experiencing minor earthquakes and are located in well-defined seismogenic sources.

Cavitation in materials with distributed weak zones: Implications on the origin of brittle fracture in metallic glasses

Several experimental studies have shown that fracture surfaces in brittle metallic glasses (MGs) generally exhibit nanoscale corrugations which may be attributed to the nucleation and coalescence of nanovoids during crack propagation. Recent atomistic simulations suggest that this phenomenon is due to large spatial fluctuations in material properties in a brittle MG, which leads to void nucleation in regions of low atomic density and then catastrophic fracture through void coalescence. To explain this behavior, we propose a model of a heterogeneous solid containing a distribution of weak zones to represent a brittle MG. Plane strain continuum finite element analysis of cavitation in such an elastic-plastic solid is performed with the weak zones idealized as periodically distributed regions having lower yield strength than the background material. It is found that the presence of weak zones can significantly reduce the critical hydrostatic stress for the onset of cavitation which is controlled uniquely by the local yield properties of these zones. Also, the presence of weak zones diminishes the sensitivity of the cavitation stress to the volume fraction of a preexisting void. These results provide plausible explanations for the observations reported in recent atomistic simulations of brittle MGs. An analytical solution for a composite, incompressible elastic-plastic solid with a weak inner core is used to investigate the effect of volume fraction and yield strength of the core on the nature of cavitation bifurcation. It is shown that snap-cavitation may occur, giving rise to sudden formation of voids with finite size, which does not happen in a homogeneous plastic solid. (c) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Delineation of seismic source zones based on seismicity parameters and probabilistic evaluation of seismic hazard using logic tree approach

The delineation of seismic source zones plays an important role in the evaluation of seismic hazard. In most of the studies the seismic source delineation is done based on geological features. In the present study, an attempt has been made to delineate seismic source zones in the study area (south India) based on the seismicity parameters. Seismicity parameters and the maximum probable earthquake for these source zones were evaluated and were used in the hazard evaluation. The probabilistic evaluation of seismic hazard for south India was carried out using a logic tree approach. Two different types of seismic sources, linear and areal, were considered in the present study to model the seismic sources in the region more precisely. In order to properly account for the attenuation characteristics of the region, three different attenuation relations were used with different weightage factors. Seismic hazard evaluation was done for the probability of exceedance (PE) of 10% and 2% in 50 years. The spatial variation of rock level peak horizontal acceleration (PHA) and spectral acceleration (Sa) values corresponding to return periods of 475 and 2500 years for the entire study area are presented in this work. The peak ground acceleration (PGA) values at ground surface level were estimated based on different NEHRP site classes by considering local site effects.

Dynamics of the Indian-Ocean oxygen minimum zones

In the Indian Ocean, mid-depth oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) occur in the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. The lower part of the Arabian-Sea OMZ (ASOMZ; below 400 m) intensifies northward across the basin; in contrast, its upper part (above 400 m) is located in the central/eastern basin, well east of the most productive regions along the western boundary. The Bay-of-Bengal OMZ (BBOMZ), although strong, is weaker than the ASOMZ. To investigate the processes that maintain the Indian-Ocean OMZs, we obtain a suite of solutions to a coupled biological/physical model. Its physical component is a variable-density, 6 1/2-layer model, in which each layer corresponds to a distinct dynamical regime or water-mass type. Its biological component has six compartments: nutrients, phytoplankton, zooplankton, two size classes of detritus, and oxygen. Because the model grid is non-eddy resolving (0.5 degrees), the biological model also includes a parameterization of enhanced mixing based on the eddy kinetic energy derived from satellite observations. To explore further the impact of local processes on OMZs, we also obtain analytic solutions to a one-dimensional, simplified version of the biological model. Our control run is able to simulate basic features of the oxygen, nutrient, and phytoplankton fields throughout the Indian Ocean. The model OMZs result from a balance, or lack thereof, between a sink of oxygen by remineralization and subsurface oxygen sources due primarily to northward spreading of oxygenated water from the Southern Hemisphere, with a contribution from Persian-Gulf water in the northern Arabian Sea. The northward intensification of the lower ASOMZ results mostly from horizontal mixing since advection is weak in its depth range. The eastward shift of the upper ASOMZ is due primarily to enhanced advection and vertical eddy mixing in the western Arabian Sea, which spread oxygenated waters both horizontally and vertically. Advection carries small detritus from the western boundary into the central/eastern Arabian Sea, where it provides an additional source of remineralization that drives the ASOMZ to suboxic levels. The model BBOMZ is weaker than the ASOMZ because the Bay lacks a remote source of detritus from the western boundary. Although detritus has a prominent annual cycle, the model OMZs do not because there is not enough time for significant remineralization to occur.

Tectonic inheritance of the Indian Shield: New insights from its elastic thickness structure

A new evaluation of the elastic thickness (Te) structure of the Indian Shield, derived from isotropic fan wavelet methodology, documents spatial variations of lithospheric deformation in different tectonic provinces correlated with episodic tectono-thermal events. The Te variations corroborated by shear velocity, crustal thickness, and seismogenic thickness reveal the heterogeneous rheology of the Indian lithosphere. The thinned, attenuated lithosphere beneath Peninsular India is considered to be the reason for its mechanically weak strength (<30 km), where a decoupled crust-mantle rheology under different surface/subsurface loading structures may explain the prominent low Te patterns. The arcuate Te structure of the Western Dharwar province and a NNE-trending band of low Te anomaly in the Southern Granulite Terrane are intriguing patterns. The average Te values (40-50 km) of the Central Indian Tectonic Zone, the Bastar Craton, and the northern Eastern Ghats Mobile Belt are suggestive of old, stable, Indian lithosphere, which was not affected by any major tectono-thermal events after cratonic stabilization. We propose that the anomalously high Te (60-85 km) and high S-wave velocity zone to the north of the Narmada-Son Lineament, mainly in NW Himalaya, and the northern Aravalli and Bundelkhand Cratons, suggest that Archean lithosphere characterized by a high velocity mantle keel supports the orogenic topographic loads in/near the Himalaya. The Te map clearly segments the volcanic provinces of the Indian Shield, where the signatures of the Reunion, Marion, and Kerguelen hotspots are indicated by significantly low Te patterns that correlate with plume- and rift-related thermal and mechanical rejuvenation, magmatic underplating, and crustal necking. The correlations between Te variations and the occurrence of seismicity over seismically active zones reveal different causal relationships, which led to the current seismogenic zonation of the Indian Shield. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Cavitation in brittle metallic glasses - Effects of stress state and distributed weak zones

Experimental studies and atomistic simulations have shown that brittle metallic glasses fail by a cavitation mechanism whose origin has been traced to the presence of intrinsic atomic density fluctuations which give rise to weak zones with reduced yield strength. It has been shown recently through continuum analysis that the presence of these zones can lower the cavitation stress considerably under equibiaxial loading. The objective of the present work is to study the effect of the applied stress state on the cavitation behavior of such a heterogeneous plastic solid with distributed weak zones. To this end, 2D plane strain finite element simulations are performed by subjecting a unit cell containing a weak zone to different (biaxiality) stress ratios. The volume fraction and yield strength of the weak zone are varied over a wide range. The results show that unlike in a homogeneous plastic solid, the cavitation stress of the heterogeneous aggregate does not reduce appreciably as the stress ratio decreases from unity when the yield strength of the weak zone is low. It is found that a non-dimensional parameter characterizing the stress state prevailing in the weak zone and its yield properties uniquely control the cavitation stress. The nature of cavitation bifurcation may change from unstable bifurcation to the left at sufficiently low stress ratio to one involving snap cavitation at high stress ratio. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Probabilistic Models for Forecasting Earthquakes in the Northeast Region of India

Northeast India and its adjoining areas are characterized by very high seismic activity. According to the Indian seismic code, the region falls under seismic zone V, which represents the highest seismic-hazard level in the country. This region has experienced a number of great earthquakes, such as the Assam (1950) and Shillong (1897) earthquakes, that caused huge devastation in the entire northeast and adjacent areas by flooding, landslides, liquefaction, and damage to roads and buildings. In this study, an attempt has been made to find the probability of occurrence of a major earthquake (M-w > 6) in this region using an updated earthquake catalog collected from different sources. Thereafter, dividing the catalog into six different seismic regions based on different tectonic features and seismogenic factors, the probability of occurrences was estimated using three models: the lognormal, Weibull, and gamma distributions. We calculated the logarithmic probability of the likelihood function (ln L) for all six regions and the entire northeast for all three stochastic models. A higher value of ln L suggests a better model, and a lower value shows a worse model. The results show different model suits for different seismic zones, but the majority follows lognormal, which is better for forecasting magnitude size. According to the results, Weibull shows the highest conditional probabilities among the three models for small as well as large elapsed time T and time intervals t, whereas the lognormal model shows the lowest and the gamma model shows intermediate probabilities. Only for elapsed time T = 0, the lognormal model shows the highest conditional probabilities among the three models at a smaller time interval (t = 3-15 yrs). The opposite result is observed at larger time intervals (t = 15-25 yrs), which show the highest probabilities for the Weibull model. However, based on this study, the IndoBurma Range and Eastern Himalaya show a high probability of occurrence in the 5 yr period 2012-2017 with >90% probability.

Effect of liquid bridge volume on the instability in small-Prandtl-number half zones

A perturbation method is used to examine the linear instability of thermocapillary convection in a liquid bridge of floating half-zone filled with a small Prandtl number fluid. The influence of liquid bridge volume on critical Marangoni number and flow features is analyzed. The neutral modes show that the instability is mainly caused by the bulk flow that is driven by the nonuniform thermocapillary forces acting on the free surface. The hydrodynamic instability is dominant in the case of small Prandtl number fluid and the first instability mode is a stationary bifurcation. The azimuthal wave number for the most dangerous mode depends on the liquid bridge volume, and is not always two as in the case of a cylindrical liquid bridge with aspect ratio near 0.6. Its value may be equal to unity when the liquid bridge is relatively slender.

Thermocapillary Convection in Floating Zones

This paper provides an overview of ongoing studies in the area of thermocapillary convection driven by a surface tension gradient parallel to the free surface in a floating zone. Here, research interests are focused around the onset of oscillatory thermocapillary convection, also known as the transition from quasisteady convection to oscillatory convection. The onset of oscillation depends on a set of critical parameters, and the margin relationship can be represented by a complex function of the critical parameters. The experimental results indicate that the velocity deviation of an oscillatory flow has the same order of magnitude as that of an average flow, and the deviations of other quantities, such as temperature and free surface radii fluctuations, are much smaller when compared with their normal counterparts. Therefore, the onset of oscillation should be a result of the dynamic process in a fluid, and the problem is a strongly nonlinear one. In the past few decades, several theoretical models have been introduced to tackle the problem using analytical methods, linear instability analysis methods, energy instability methods, and unsteady 3D numerical methods. The last of the above mentioned methods is known to be the most suitable for a thorough analysis of strong nonlinear processes, which generally leads to a better comparison with the experimental results. The transition from oscillatory thermocapillary convection to turbulence falls under the studies of chaotic behavior in a new system, which opens a fascinating new frontier in nonlinear science, a hot research area drawing many recent works. This paper reviews theoretical models and analysis, and also experimental research, on thermocapillary connection in floating zones. It cites 93 references.

The distribution of cirripeds and gastropods on plain vertical rock surfaces in the upper intertidal and splash zones

This is a student paper done for a University of California Berkeley Zoology class. Since UCB didn't have its own marine lab at the time, it rented space at Hopkins Marine Station where this work was done. Cadet Hand earned his Ph.D. from Berkeley and went on to become Director of the Bodega Marine Laboratory. Donald Putnam Abbott also earned his Ph.D. from Berkeley and later became a Stanford professor at Hopkins Marine Station. (PDF contains 26 pages)