Earthquakes of the Nepal Himalaya : towards a physical model of the seismic cycle

Home to hundreds of millions of souls and land of excessiveness, the Himalaya is also the locus of a unique seismicity whose scope and peculiarities still remain to this day somewhat mysterious. Having claimed the lives of kings, or turned ancient timeworn cities into heaps of rubbles and ruins, earthquakes eerily inhabit Nepalese folk tales with the fatalistic message that nothing lasts forever. From a scientific point of view as much as from a human perspective, solving the mysteries of Himalayan seismicity thus represents a challenge of prime importance. Documenting geodetic strain across the Nepal Himalaya with various GPS and leveling data, we show that unlike other subduction zones that exhibit a heterogeneous and patchy coupling pattern along strike, the last hundred kilometers of the Main Himalayan Thrust fault, or MHT, appear to be uniformly locked, devoid of any of the “creeping barriers” that traditionally ward off the propagation of large events. The approximately 20 mm/yr of reckoned convergence across the Himalaya matching previously established estimates of the secular deformation at the front of the arc, the slip accumulated at depth has to somehow elastically propagate all the way to the surface at some point. And yet, neither large events from the past nor currently recorded microseismicity nearly compensate for the massive moment deficit that quietly builds up under the giant mountains. Along with this large unbalanced moment deficit, the uncommonly homogeneous coupling pattern on the MHT raises the question of whether or not the locked portion of the MHT can rupture all at once in a giant earthquake. Univocally answering this question appears contingent on the still elusive estimate of the magnitude of the largest possible earthquake in the Himalaya, and requires tight constraints on local fault properties. What makes the Himalaya enigmatic also makes it the potential source of an incredible wealth of information, and we exploit some of the oddities of Himalayan seismicity in an effort to improve the understanding of earthquake physics and cipher out the properties of the MHT. Thanks to the Himalaya, the Indo-Gangetic plain is deluged each year under a tremendous amount of water during the annual summer monsoon that collects and bears down on the Indian plate enough to pull it away from the Eurasian plate slightly, temporarily relieving a small portion of the stress mounting on the MHT. As the rainwater evaporates in the dry winter season, the plate rebounds and tension is increased back on the fault. Interestingly, the mild waggle of stress induced by the monsoon rains is about the same size as that from solid-Earth tides which gently tug at the planets solid layers, but whereas changes in earthquake frequency correspond with the annually occurring monsoon, there is no such correlation with Earth tides, which oscillate back-and-forth twice a day. We therefore investigate the general response of the creeping and seismogenic parts of MHT to periodic stresses in order to link these observations to physical parameters. First, the response of the creeping part of the MHT is analyzed with a simple spring-and-slider system bearing rate-strengthening rheology, and we show that at the transition with the locked zone, where the friction becomes near velocity neutral, the response of the slip rate may be amplified at some periods, which values are analytically related to the physical parameters of the problem. Such predictions therefore hold the potential of constraining fault properties on the MHT, but still await observational counterparts to be applied, as nothing indicates that the variations of seismicity rate on the locked part of the MHT are the direct expressions of variations of the slip rate on its creeping part, and no variations of the slip rate have been singled out from the GPS measurements to this day. When shifting to the locked seismogenic part of the MHT, spring-and-slider models with rate-weakening rheology are insufficient to explain the contrasted responses of the seismicity to the periodic loads that tides and monsoon both place on the MHT. Instead, we resort to numerical simulations using the Boundary Integral CYCLes of Earthquakes algorithm and examine the response of a 2D finite fault embedded with a rate-weakening patch to harmonic stress perturbations of various periods. We show that such simulations are able to reproduce results consistent with a gradual amplification of sensitivity as the perturbing period get larger, up to a critical period corresponding to the characteristic time of evolution of the seismicity in response to a step-like perturbation of stress. This increase of sensitivity was not reproduced by simple 1D-spring-slider systems, probably because of the complexity of the nucleation process, reproduced only by 2D-fault models. When the nucleation zone is close to its critical unstable size, its growth becomes highly sensitive to any external perturbations and the timings of produced events may therefore find themselves highly affected. A fully analytical framework has yet to be developed and further work is needed to fully describe the behavior of the fault in terms of physical parameters, which will likely provide the keys to deduce constitutive properties of the MHT from seismological observations.

Using space geodesy to constrain variations in seismogenic behavior on subduction megathrusts

The concept of seismogenic asperities and aseismic barriers has become a useful paradigm within which to understand the seismogenic behavior of major faults. Since asperities and barriers can be thought of as defining the potential rupture area of large megathrust earthquakes, it is thus important to identify their respective spatial extents, constrain their temporal longevity, and to develop a physical understanding for their behavior. Space geodesy is making critical contributions to the identification of slip asperities and barriers but progress in many geographical regions depends on improving the accuracy and precision of the basic measurements. This thesis begins with technical developments aimed at improving satellite radar interferometric measurements of ground deformation whereby we introduce an empirical correction algorithm for unwanted effects due to interferometric path delays that are due to spatially and temporally variable radar wave propagation speeds in the atmosphere. In chapter 2, I combine geodetic datasets with complementary spatio-temporal resolutions to improve our understanding of the spatial distribution of crustal deformation sources and their associated temporal evolution – here we use observations from Long Valley Caldera (California) as our test bed. In the third chapter I apply the tools developed in the first two chapters to analyze postseismic deformation associated with the 2010 Mw=8.8 Maule (Chile) earthquake. The result delimits patches where afterslip occurs, explores their relationship to coseismic rupture, quantifies frictional properties associated with inferred patches of afterslip, and discusses the relationship of asperities and barriers to long-term topography. The final chapter investigates interseismic deformation of the eastern Makran subduction zone by using satellite radar interferometry only, and demonstrates that with state-of-art techniques it is possible to quantify tectonic signals with small amplitude and long wavelength. Portions of the eastern Makran for which we estimate low fault coupling correspond to areas where bathymetric features on the downgoing plate are presently subducting, whereas the region of the 1945 M=8.1 earthquake appears to be more highly coupled.

Characterization of diverse megathrust fault behavior related to seismic supercycles, Mentawai Islands, Sumatra

Long paleoseismic histories are necessary for understanding the full range of behavior of faults, as the most destructive events often have recurrence intervals longer than local recorded history. The Sunda megathrust, the interface along which the Australian plate subducts beneath Southeast Asia, provides an ideal natural laboratory for determining a detailed paleoseismic history over many seismic cycles. The outer-arc islands above the seismogenic portion of the megathrust cyclically rise and subside in response to processes on the underlying megathrust, providing uncommonly good illumination of megathrust behavior. Furthermore, the growth histories of coral microatolls, which record tectonic uplift and subsidence via relative sea level, can be used to investigate the detailed coseismic and interseismic deformation patterns. One particularly interesting area is the Mentawai segment of the megathrust, which has been shown to characteristically fail in a series of ruptures over decades, rather than a single end-to-end rupture. This behavior has been termed a seismic “supercycle.” Prior to the current rupture sequence, which began in 2007, the segment previously ruptured during the 14th century, the late 16th to late 17th century, and most recently during historical earthquakes in 1797 and 1833. In this study, we examine each of these previous supercycles in turn.

First, we expand upon previous analysis of the 1797–1833 rupture sequence with a comprehensive review of previously published coral microatoll data and the addition of a significant amount of new data. We present detailed maps of coseismic uplift during the two great earthquakes and of interseismic deformation during the periods 1755–1833 and 1950–1997 and models of the corresponding slip and coupling on the underlying megathrust. We derive magnitudes of Mw 8.7–9.0 for the two historical earthquakes, and determine that the 1797 earthquake fundamentally changed the state of coupling on the fault for decades afterward. We conclude that while major earthquakes generally do not involve rupture of the entire Mentawai segment, they undoubtedly influence the progression of subsequent ruptures, even beyond their own rupture area. This concept is of vital importance for monitoring and forecasting the progression of the modern rupture sequence.

Turning our attention to the 14th century, we present evidence of a shallow slip event in approximately A.D. 1314, which preceded the “conventional” megathrust rupture sequence. We calculate a suite of slip models, slightly deeper and/or larger than the 2010 Pagai Islands earthquake, that are consistent with the large amount of subsidence recorded at our study site. Sea-level records from older coral microatolls suggest that these events occur at least once every millennium, but likely far less frequently than their great downdip neighbors. The revelation that shallow slip events are important contributors to the seismic cycle of the Mentawai segment further complicates our understanding of this subduction megathrust and our assessment of the region’s exposure to seismic and tsunami hazards.

Finally, we present an outline of the complex intervening rupture sequence that took place in the 16th and 17th centuries, which involved at least five distinct uplift events. We conclude that each of the supercycles had unique features, and all of the types of fault behavior we observe are consistent with highly heterogeneous frictional properties of the megathrust beneath the south-central Mentawai Islands. We conclude that the heterogeneous distribution of asperities produces terminations and overlap zones between fault ruptures, resulting in the seismic “supercycle” phenomenon.

Geological evolution of two crustal scale shear zones. Part I. The Rand thrust complex, northwestern Mojave Desert, California. Part II. The Magdalena metamorphic core complex, north central Sonora, Mexico

The geology and structure of two crustal scale shear zones were studied to understand the partitioning of strain within intracontinental orogenic belts. Movement histories and regional tectonic implications are deduced from observational data. The two widely separated study areas bear the imprint of intense Late Mesozoic through Middle Cenozoic tectonic activity. A regional transition from Late Cretaceous-Early Tertiary plutonism, metamorphism, and shortening strain to Middle Tertiary extension and magmatism is preserved in each area, with contrasting environments and mechanisms. Compressional phases of this tectonic history are better displayed in the Rand Mountains, whereas younger extensional structures dominate rock fabrics in the Magdalena area.

In the northwestern Mojave desert, the Rand Thrust Complex reveals a stack of four distinctive tectonic plates offset along the Garlock Fault. The lowermost plate, Rand Schist, is composed of greenschist facies metagraywacke, metachert, and metabasalt. Rand Schist is structurally overlain by Johannesburg Gneiss (= garnet-amphibolite grade orthogneisses, marbles and quartzites), which in turn is overlain by a Late Cretaceous hornblende-biotite granodiorite. Biotite granite forms the fourth and highest plate. Initial assembly of the tectonic stack involved a Late Cretaceous? south or southwest vergent overthrusting event in which Johannesburg Gneiss was imbricated and attenuated between Rand Schist and hornblende-biotite granodiorite. Thrusting postdated metamorphism and deformation of the lower two plates in separate environments. A post-kinematic stock, the Late Cretaceous Randsburg Granodiorite, intrudes deep levels of the complex and contains xenoliths of both Rand Schist and mylonitized Johannesburg? gneiss. Minimum shortening implied by the map patterns is 20 kilometers.

Some low angle faults of the Rand Thrust Complex formed or were reactivated between Late Cretaceous and Early Miocene time. South-southwest directed mylonites derived from Johannesburg Gneiss are commonly overprinted by less penetrative north-northeast vergent structures. Available kinematic information at shallower structural levels indicates that late disturbance(s) culminated in northward transport of the uppermost plate. Persistence of brittle fabrics along certain structural horizons suggests a possible association of late movement(s) with regionally known detachment faults. The four plates were juxtaposed and significant intraplate movements had ceased prior to Early Miocene emplacement of rhyolite porphyry dikes.

In the Magdalena region of north central Sonora, components of a pre-Middle Cretaceous stratigraphy are used as strain markers in tracking the evolution of a long lived orogenic belt. Important elements of the tectonic history include: (1) Compression during the Late Cretaceous and Early Tertiary, accompanied by plutonism, metamorphism, and ductile strain at depth, and thrust driven? syntectonic sedimentation at the surface. (2) Middle Tertiary transition to crustal extension, initially recorded by intrusion of leucogranites, inflation of the previously shortened middle and upper crustal section, and surface volcanism. (3) Gravity induced development of a normal sense ductile shear zone at mid crustal levels, with eventual detachment and southwestward displacement of the upper crustal stratigraphy by Early Miocene time.

Elucidation of the metamorphic core complex evolution just described was facilitated by fortuitous preservation of a unique assemblage of rocks and structures. The "type" stratigraphy utilized for regional correlation and strain analysis includes a Jurassic volcanic arc assemblage overlain by an Upper Jurassic-Lower Cretaceous quartz pebble conglomerate, in turn overlain by marine strata with fossiliferous Aptian-Albian limestones. The Jurassic strata, comprised of (a) rhyolite porphyries interstratified with quartz arenites, (b) rhyolite cobble conglomerate, and (c) intrusive granite porphyries, are known to rest on Precambrian basement north and east of the study area. The quartz pebble conglomerate is correlated with the Glance Conglomerate of southeastern Arizona and northeastern Sonora. The marine sequence represents part of an isolated arm? of the Bisbee Basin.

Crosscutting structural relationships between the pre-Middle Cretaceous supracrustal section, younger plutons, and deformational fabrics allow the tectonic sequence to be determined. Earliest phases of a Late Cretaceous-Early Tertiary orogeny are marked by emplacement of the 78 ± 3 Ma Guacomea Granodiorite (U/Pb zircon, Anderson et al., 1980) as a sill into deep levels of the layered Jurassic series. Subsequent regional metamorphism and ductile strain is recorded by a penetrative schistosity and lineation, and east-west trending folds. These fabrics are intruded by post-kinematic Early Tertiary? two mica granites. At shallower crustal levels, the orogeny is represented by north directed thrust faulting, formation of a large intermontane basin, and development of a pronounced unconformity. A second important phase of ductile strain followed Middle Tertiary? emplacement of leucogranites as sills and northwest trending dikes into intermediate levels of the deformed section (surficial volcanism was also active during this transitional period to regional extension). Gravitational instabilities resulting from crustal swelling via intrusion and thermal expansion led to development of a ductile shear zone within the stratigraphic horizon occupied by a laterally extensive leucogranite sill. With continued extension, upper crustal brittle normal faults (detachment faults) enhanced the uplift and tectonic denudation of this mylonite zone, ultimately resulting in southwestward displacement of the upper crustal stratigraphy.

Strains associated with the two ductile deformation events have been successfully partitioned through a multifaceted analysis. R_f/Ø measurements on various markers from the "type" stratigraphy allow a gradient representing cumulative strain since Middle Cretaceous time to be determined. From this gradient, noncoaxial strains accrued since emplacement of the leucogranites may be removed. Irrotational components of the postleucogranite strain are measured from quartz grain shapes in deformed granites; rotational components (shear strains) are determined from S-C fabrics and from restoration of rotated dike and vein networks. Structural observations and strain data are compatable with a deformation path of: (1) coaxial strain (pure shear?), followed by (2) injection of leucogranites as dikes (perpendicular to the minimum principle stress) and sills (parallel to the minimum principle stress), then (3) southwest directed simple shear. Modeling the late strain gradient as a simple shear zone permits a minimum displacement of 10 kilometers on the Magdalena mylonite zone/detachment fault system. Removal of the Middle Tertiary noncoaxial strains yields a residual (or pre-existing) strain gradient representative of the Late Cretaceous-Early Tertiary deformation. Several partially destrained cross sections, restored to the time of leucogranite emplacement, illustrate the idea that the upper plate of the core complex bas been detached from a region of significant topographic relief. 50% to 100% bulk extension across a 50 kilometer wide corridor is demonstrated.

Late Cenozoic tectonics of the Magdalena region are dominated by Basin and Range style faulting. Northeast and north-northwest trending high angle normal faults have interacted to extend the crust in an east-west direction. Net extension for this period is minor (10% to 15%) in comparison to the Middle Tertiary detachment related extensional episode.