Towards robust network based complex systems : from evolutionary cellular automata to biological models

Abstract Sitting between your past and your future doesn't mean you are in the present. Dakota Skye Complex systems science is an interdisciplinary field grouping under the same umbrella dynamical phenomena from social, natural or mathematical sciences. The emergence of a higher order organization or behavior, transcending that expected of the linear addition of the parts, is a key factor shared by all these systems. Most complex systems can be modeled as networks that represent the interactions amongst the system's components. In addition to the actual nature of the part's interactions, the intrinsic topological structure of underlying network is believed to play a crucial role in the remarkable emergent behaviors exhibited by the systems. Moreover, the topology is also a key a factor to explain the extraordinary flexibility and resilience to perturbations when applied to transmission and diffusion phenomena. In this work, we study the effect of different network structures on the performance and on the fault tolerance of systems in two different contexts. In the first part, we study cellular automata, which are a simple paradigm for distributed computation. Cellular automata are made of basic Boolean computational units, the cells; relying on simple rules and information from- the surrounding cells to perform a global task. The limited visibility of the cells can be modeled as a network, where interactions amongst cells are governed by an underlying structure, usually a regular one. In order to increase the performance of cellular automata, we chose to change its topology. We applied computational principles inspired by Darwinian evolution, called evolutionary algorithms, to alter the system's topological structure starting from either a regular or a random one. The outcome is remarkable, as the resulting topologies find themselves sharing properties of both regular and random network, and display similitudes Watts-Strogtz's small-world network found in social systems. Moreover, the performance and tolerance to probabilistic faults of our small-world like cellular automata surpasses that of regular ones. In the second part, we use the context of biological genetic regulatory networks and, in particular, Kauffman's random Boolean networks model. In some ways, this model is close to cellular automata, although is not expected to perform any task. Instead, it simulates the time-evolution of genetic regulation within living organisms under strict conditions. The original model, though very attractive by it's simplicity, suffered from important shortcomings unveiled by the recent advances in genetics and biology. We propose to use these new discoveries to improve the original model. Firstly, we have used artificial topologies believed to be closer to that of gene regulatory networks. We have also studied actual biological organisms, and used parts of their genetic regulatory networks in our models. Secondly, we have addressed the improbable full synchronicity of the event taking place on. Boolean networks and proposed a more biologically plausible cascading scheme. Finally, we tackled the actual Boolean functions of the model, i.e. the specifics of how genes activate according to the activity of upstream genes, and presented a new update function that takes into account the actual promoting and repressing effects of one gene on another. Our improved models demonstrate the expected, biologically sound, behavior of previous GRN model, yet with superior resistance to perturbations. We believe they are one step closer to the biological reality.

Are agent-based simulations robust? The wholesale electricity trading case

Agent-based computational economics is becoming widely used in practice. This paperexplores the consistency of some of its standard techniques. We focus in particular on prevailingwholesale electricity trading simulation methods. We include different supply and demandrepresentations and propose the Experience-Weighted Attractions method to include severalbehavioural algorithms. We compare the results across assumptions and to economic theorypredictions. The match is good under best-response and reinforcement learning but not underfictitious play. The simulations perform well under flat and upward-slopping supply bidding,and also for plausible demand elasticity assumptions. Learning is influenced by the number ofbids per plant and the initial conditions. The overall conclusion is that agent-based simulationassumptions are far from innocuous. We link their performance to underlying features, andidentify those that are better suited to model wholesale electricity markets.

Performance of a chromatographic procedure used in the certification of reference material for polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in sewage sludge

Semi-automatic capillary gas chromatographic method with classical flame ionization detection, which satisfies the conditions for required performance and gave acceptable results within the framework of an interlaboratory certification programme for PAHs in sewage sludge, is described. The interesting feature of the procedure is that it incorporates automatic operations such as sample fractionation by semi-preparative HPLC, fraction collection at signal level recognition and evaporation under nitrogen flow. Multiple injections in the GC capillary column are performed in the on-column mode via an autosampler with temperature-programmable injector. Automatic data acquisition and chromatogram treatment are made via computer software. This partially automatic procedure releases personnel from tedious and time-consuming tasks and its robust character was validated through the certification of reference material for PAHs in sewage sludge, demonstrating its reliable performance.

Robust power allocation algorithms for MIMO OFDM systems with imperfect CSI

This paper presents a Bayesian approach to the design of transmit prefiltering matrices in closed-loop schemes robust to channel estimation errors. The algorithms are derived for a multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) system. Two different optimizationcriteria are analyzed: the minimization of the mean square error and the minimization of the bit error rate. In both cases, the transmitter design is based on the singular value decomposition (SVD) of the conditional mean of the channel response, given the channel estimate. The performance of the proposed algorithms is analyzed,and their relationship with existing algorithms is indicated. As withother previously proposed solutions, the minimum bit error rate algorithmconverges to the open-loop transmission scheme for very poor CSI estimates.

Robust Estimates of the Negative Binomial Model

We consider robust parametric procedures for univariate discrete distributions, focusing on the negative binomial model. The procedures are based on three steps: ?First, a very robust, but possibly inefficient, estimate of the model parameters is computed. ?Second, this initial model is used to identify outliers, which are then removed from the sample. ?Third, a corrected maximum likelihood estimator is computed with the remaining observations. The final estimate inherits the breakdown point (bdp) of the initial one and its efficiency can be significantly higher. Analogous procedures were proposed in [1], [2], [5] for the continuous case. A comparison of the asymptotic bias of various estimates under point contamination points out the minimum Neyman's chi-squared disparity estimate as a good choice for the initial step. Various minimum disparity estimators were explored by Lindsay [4], who showed that the minimum Neyman's chi-squared estimate has a 50% bdp under point contamination; in addition, it is asymptotically fully efficient at the model. However, the finite sample efficiency of this estimate under the uncontaminated negative binomial model is usually much lower than 100% and the bias can be strong. We show that its performance can then be greatly improved using the three step procedure outlined above. In addition, we compare the final estimate with the procedure described in

Improving Pitch Tracking Performance in Hard Noise Conditions by a Preprocessing Based on Mathematical Morphology

In this paper we show how a nonlinear preprocessing of speech signal -with high noise- based on morphological filters improves the performance of robust algorithms for pitch tracking (RAPT). This result happens for a very simple morphological filter. More sophisticated ones could even improve such results. Mathematical morphology is widely used in image processing and has a great amount of applications. Almost all its formulations derived in the two-dimensional framework are easily reformulated to be adapted to one-dimensional context

Performance and Methodological Aspects in Positron Emission Tomography

Performance standards for Positron emission tomography (PET) were developed to be able to compare systems from different generations and manufacturers. This resulted in the NEMA methodology in North America and the IEC in Europe. In practices, the NEMA NU 2- 2001 is the method of choice today. These standardized methods allow assessment of the physical performance of new commercial dedicated PET/CT tomographs. The point spread in image formation is one of the factors that blur the image. The phenomenon is often called the partial volume effect. Several methods for correcting for partial volume are under research but no real agreement exists on how to solve it. The influence of the effect varies in different clinical settings and it is likely that new methods are needed to solve this problem. Most of the clinical PET work is done in the field of oncology. The whole body PET combined with a CT is the standard investigation today in oncology. Despite the progress in PET imaging technique visualization, especially quantification of small lesions is a challenge. In addition to partial volume, the movement of the object is a significant source of error. The main causes of movement are respiratory and cardiac motions. Most of the new commercial scanners are in addition to cardiac gating, also capable of respiratory gating and this technique has been used in patients with cancer of the thoracic region and patients being studied for the planning of radiation therapy. For routine cardiac applications such as assessment of viability and perfusion only cardiac gating has been used. However, the new targets such as plaque or molecular imaging of new therapies require better control of the cardiac motion also caused by respiratory motion. To overcome these problems in cardiac work, a dual gating approach has been proposed. In this study we investigated the physical performance of a new whole body PET/CT scanner with NEMA standard, compared methods for partial volume correction in PET studies of the brain and developed and tested a new robust method for dual cardiac-respiratory gated PET with phantom, animal and human data. Results from performance measurements showed the feasibility of the new scanner design in 2D and 3D whole body studies. Partial volume was corrected, but there is no best method among those tested as the correction also depends on the radiotracer and its distribution. New methods need to be developed for proper correction. The dual gating algorithm generated is shown to handle dual-gated data, preserving quantification and clearly eliminating the majority of contraction and respiration movement

Fourier-based registration for robust forward-looking sonar mosaicing in low-visibility underwater environments

Vehicle operations in underwater environments are often compromised by poor visibility conditions. For instance, the perception range of optical devices is heavily constrained in turbid waters, thus complicating navigation and mapping tasks in environments such as harbors, bays, or rivers. A new generation of high-definition forward-looking sonars providing acoustic imagery at high frame rates has recently emerged as a promising alternative for working under these challenging conditions. However, the characteristics of the sonar data introduce difficulties in image registration, a key step in mosaicing and motion estimation applications. In this work, we propose the use of a Fourier-based registration technique capable of handling the low resolution, noise, and artifacts associated with sonar image formation. When compared to a state-of-the art region-based technique, our approach shows superior performance in the alignment of both consecutive and nonconsecutive views as well as higher robustness in featureless environments. The method is used to compute pose constraints between sonar frames that, integrated inside a global alignment framework, enable the rendering of consistent acoustic mosaics with high detail and increased resolution. An extensive experimental section is reported showing results in relevant field applications, such as ship hull inspection and harbor mapping

The adequacy of different robust statistical tests in comparing two independent groups

In the current study, we evaluated various robust statistical methods for comparing two independent groups. Two scenarios for simulation were generated: one of equality and another of population mean differences. In each of the scenarios, 33 experimental conditions were used as a function of sample size, standard deviation and asymmetry. For each condition, 5000 replications per group were generated. The results obtained by this study show an adequate type error I rate but not a high power for the confidence intervals. In general, for the two scenarios studied (mean population differences and not mean population differences) in the different conditions analysed, the Mann-Whitney U-test demonstrated strong performance, and a little worse the t-test of Yuen-Welch.

Development and validation of a High Performance Liquid Chromatographic method for determination of etoposide in biodegradable polymeric implants

A method using HPLC-UV was developed and validated for the determination of etoposide incorporated into polycaprolactone implants. The method was carried out in isocratic mode using a C18 column (250 x 4.6 mm; 5 µm), at 25 ºC, with acetonitrile and acetic acid 4% (70:30) as mobile phase, a flow rate of 2 mL/min, and UV detection at 285 nm. The method was linear (r² > 0.99) over the range of 5 to 65 µg/mL, precise (RSD < 5%), accurate (recovery of 98.7%), robust, selective regarding excipient of the sample, and had a quantitation limit equal to 1.76 µg/mL. The validated method can be successfully employed for routine quality control analyses.

Centralized Motion Control of a Linear Tooth Belt Drive: Analysis of the Performance and Limitations

A centralized robust position control for an electrical driven tooth belt drive is designed in this doctoral thesis. Both a cascaded control structure and a PID based position controller are discussed. The performance and the limitations of the system are analyzed and design principles for the mechanical structure and the control design are given. These design principles are also suitable for most of the motion control applications, where mechanical resonance frequencies and control loop delays are present. One of the major challenges in the design of a controller for machinery applications is that the values of the parameters in the system model (parameter uncertainty) or the system model it self (non-parametric uncertainty) are seldom known accurately in advance. In this thesis a systematic analysis of the parameter uncertainty of the linear tooth beltdrive model is presented and the effect of the variation of a single parameter on the performance of the total system is shown. The total variation of the model parameters is taken into account in the control design phase using a Quantitative Feedback Theory (QFT). The thesis also introduces a new method to analyze reference feedforward controllers applying the QFT. The performance of the designed controllers is verified by experimentalmeasurements. The measurements confirm the control design principles that are given in this thesis.

Improving the performance of a dismounted Future Force Warrior by means of C4I2SR

This thesis comprises seven peer-reviewed articles and examines systems and applications suitable for increasing Future Force Warrior performance, minimizing collateral damage, improving situational awareness and Common Operational Picture. Based on a literature study, missing functionalities of Future Force Warrior were identified and new ideas, concepts and solutions were created as part of early stages of Systems of Systems creation. These introduced ideas have not yet been implemented or tested in combat and for this reason benefit analyses are excluded. The main results of this thesis include the following: A new networking concept, Wireless Polling Sensor Network, which is a swarm of a few Unmanned Aerial Vehicles forming an ad-hoc network and polling a large number of fixed sensor nodes. The system is more robust in a military environment than traditional Wireless Sensor Networks. A Business Process approach to Service Oriented Architecture in a tactical setting is a concept for scheduling and sharing limited resources. New components to military Service Oriented Architecture have been introduced in the thesis. Other results of the thesis include an investigation of the use of Free Space Optics in tactical communications, a proposal for tracking neutral forces, a system for upgrading simple collaboration tools for command, control and collaboration purposes, a three-level hierarchy of Future Force Warrior, and methods for reducing incidents of fratricide.

ASSESSING THE PERFORMANCE OF EMERGING MARKET MUTUAL FUNDS IN CANADA

Emerging markets have received wide attention from investors around the globe because of their return potential and risk diversification. This research examines the selection and timing performance of Canadian mutual funds which invest in fixed-income and equity securities in emerging markets. We use (un)conditional two- and five-factor benchmark models that accommodate the dynamics of returns in emerging markets. We also adopt the cross-sectional bootstrap methodology to distinguish between ‘skill’ and ‘luck’ for individual funds. All the tests are conducted using a comprehensive data set of bond and equity emerging funds over the period of 1989-2011. The risk-adjusted measures of performance are estimated using the least squares method with the Newey-West adjustment for standard errors that are robust to conditional heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation. The performance statistics of the emerging funds before (after) management-related costs are insignificantly positive (significantly negative). They are sensitive to the chosen benchmark model and conditional information improves selection performance. The timing statistics are largely insignificant throughout the sample period and are not sensitive to the benchmark model. Evidence of timing and selecting abilities is obtained in a small number of funds which is not sensitive to the fees structure. We also find evidence that a majority of individual funds provide zero (very few provide positive) abnormal return before fees and a significantly negative return after fees. At the negative end of the tail of performance distribution, our resampling tests fail to reject the role of bad luck in the poor performance of funds and we conclude that most of them are merely ‘unlucky’.

The Influence of Attentional Focus on the Self-Efficacy-Performance Relationship in a Continuous Running Task

The self-efficacy-performance relationship in continuous sport tasks has been shown to be significantly reciprocal yet unequal with stronger influences in the performance-to-self-efficacy pathway rather than self-efficacy-to-performance pathway (e.g., LaForge-MacKenzie & Sullivan, 2014b). Bandura (2012) suggested that sociocognitive variables may influence this relationship. Attention as a sociocognitve factor may bias the processing of performance and self-efficacy information (Bandura, 1982, 1997; Bandura & Jourden, 1991). As confidence and attention are important aspects of peak running performance (Brewer, Van Raalte, Linder, & VanRaalte, 1991), the primary purpose of the present study was to examine the self-efficacy-performance relationship under three conditions of attentional focus. The secondary purpose was to examine self-efficacy and performance as separate constructs under the same conditions of attention. Participants ran continuously for one kilometer in one of three randomly assigned attentional focus conditions: internal-focus (n = 51), external-focus (n = 50), and control (n = 49). Self-efficacy was assessed using a one-item measure every 200 meters. Path analyses examining the primary objective revealed significant self-efficacy-to-performance pathways in all conditions: external-focus (p < .05, βs ranging from -.17 to -.32), internal-focus (p < .05, βs ranging from -.26 to -.36), and control (p < .05, βs ranging from -.29 to -.42). Significant reciprocal relationships were absent in all conditions. ANOVAs examining the secondary objectives found significantly faster performance in the control condition at the start (F (2, 147) = 3.86, p < .05) and end of the task (F (2, 147) = 3.56, p < .05). Self-efficacy was significantly higher in the internal-focus condition at the end of the task (Self-Efficacy 4 (F (2, 147) = 3.21, p < .05) and Self-Efficacy 5 (F (2, 147) = 4.74, p < .05). In contrast to previous within-trial research (e.g., LaForge-MacKenzie & Sullivan, 2014b) self-efficacy-to-performance effects were more significant and robust than performance-to-self-efficacy effects. These results provided support for Bandura’s (2012) suggestion that sociocognitive factors may have the ability to alter the causal structure of the self-efficacy-performance relationship, proposing complexities in the self-efficacy-performance relationship (Sitzmann &Yeo, 2013). Results were discussed from both theoretical and applied perspectives.

A domain-general perspective on medial frontal brain activity during performance monitoring

Activity of the medial frontal cortex (MFC) has been implicated in attention regulation and performance monitoring. The MFC is thought to generate several event-related potential (ERPs) components, known as medial frontal negativities (MFNs), that are elicited when a behavioural response becomes difficult to control (e.g., following an error or shifting from a frequently executed response). The functional significance of MFNs has traditionally been interpreted in the context of the paradigm used to elicit a specific response, such as errors. In a series of studies, we consider the functional similarity of multiple MFC brain responses by designing novel performance monitoring tasks and exploiting advanced methods for electroencephalography (EEG) signal processing and robust estimation statistics for hypothesis testing. In study 1, we designed a response cueing task and used Independent Component Analysis (ICA) to show that the latent factors describing a MFN to stimuli that cued the potential need to inhibit a response on upcoming trials also accounted for medial frontal brain responses that occurred when individuals made a mistake or inhibited an incorrect response. It was also found that increases in theta occurred to each of these task events, and that the effects were evident at the group level and in single cases. In study 2, we replicated our method of classifying MFC activity to cues in our response task and showed again, using additional tasks, that error commission, response inhibition, and, to a lesser extent, the processing of performance feedback all elicited similar changes across MFNs and theta power. In the final study, we converted our response cueing paradigm into a saccade cueing task in order to examine the oscillatory dynamics of response preparation. We found that, compared to easy pro-saccades, successfully preparing a difficult anti-saccadic response was characterized by an increase in MFC theta and the suppression of posterior alpha power prior to executing the eye movement. These findings align with a large body of literature on performance monitoring and ERPs, and indicate that MFNs, along with their signature in theta power, reflects the general process of controlling attention and adapting behaviour without the need to induce error commission, the inhibition of responses, or the presentation of negative feedback.