The reliability of supply of feed grains in the northern region

Reliability of supply of feed grain has become a high priority issue for industry in the northern region. Expansion by major intensive livestock and industrial users of grain, combined with high inter-annual variability in seasonal conditions, has generated concern in the industry about reliability of supply. This paper reports on a modelling study undertaken to analyse the reliability of supply of feed grain in the northern region. Feed grain demand was calculated for major industries (cattle feedlots, pigs, poultry, dairy) based on their current size and rate of grain usage. Current demand was estimated to be 2.8Mt. With the development of new industrial users (ethanol) and by projecting the current growth rate of the various intensive livestock industries, it was estimated that demand would grow to 3.6Mt in three years time. Feed grain supply was estimated using shire scale yield prediction models for wheat and sorghum that had been calibrated against recent ABS production data. Other crops that contribute to a lesser extent to the total feed grain pool (barley, maize) were included by considering their production relative to the major winter and summer grains, with estimates based on available production records. This modelling approach allowed simulation of a 101-year time series of yield that showed the extent of the impact of inter-annual climate variability on yield levels. Production estimates were developed from this yield time series by including planted crop area. Area planted data were obtained from ABS and ABARE records. Total production amounts were adjusted to allow for any export and end uses that were not feed grain (flour, malt etc). The median feed grain supply for an average area planted was about 3.1Mt, but this varied greatly from year to year depending on seasonal conditions and area planted. These estimates indicated that supply would not meet current demand in about 30% of years if a median area crop were planted. Two thirds of the years with a supply shortfall were El Nino years. This proportion of years was halved (i.e. 15%) if the area planted increased to that associated with the best 10% of years. Should demand grow as projected in this study, there would be few years where it could be met if a median crop area was planted. With area planted similar to the best 10% of years, there would still be a shortfall in nearly 50% of all years (and 80% of El Nino years). The implications of these results on supply/demand and risk management and investment in research and development are briefly discussed.

Performance reliability of high-maintenance systems

The time–history of the performance of a system is treated as a stochastic corrective process, in which deterioration due to aging is counteracted at brief maintenance checks. Using a diffusion approximation for the deterioration, simple models are proposed for describing maintenance either by component replacement or by performance restoration. Equilibrium solutions of the models show that the performance has a probability distribution with exponential tails: the uncritical use of Gaussians can grossly underestimate the probability of poor performance. The proposed models are supported by recent observational evidence on aircraft track-keeping errors, which are shown to follow the modified exponential distribution derived here. The analysis also brings out the relation between the deterioration characteristics of the system and the intensity of the maintenance effort required to achieve a given performance reliability.

The application of islanded photovoltaic cells and battery storage on the reliability of distribution networks

Renewable energy resources, in particularly PV and battery storage are increasingly becoming part of residential and agriculture premises to manage their electricity consumption. This thesis addresses the tremendous technical, financial and planning challenges for utilities created by these increases, by offering techniques to examine the significance of various renewable resources in electricity network planning. The outcome of this research should assist utilities and customers for adequate planning that can be financially effective.

Synthesis of path generating flexible-link mechanisms

Flexible-link mechanisms are those linkage mechanisms (or structures) which are capable of motion by virtue of elastic deformation of one or more;links. In such mechanisms a single flexible link; can replace several rigid links and joints resulting in fewer links, fewer pin joints, reduced overall weight and reduced mechanical error. In spite of such clear advantages, contributions toward flexible-link mechanisms remain very scarce. The area of flexible-link mechanisms offers much scope for further exploration. This paper attempts to show the potential of flexible-link mechanisms in accomplishing a kinematic task like path generation. Synthesis of a four-bar mechanism with a flexible rocker for circular and straight line path generation is carried out. Displacement analysis of the structure is carried out using finite element method (FEM) and synthesis is formulated and solved as an optimization problem. Several numerical examples are presented for illustration. Based on the results obtained with these examples, the flexible-link mechanism considered shows good promise for-path generation.

Performance and reliability of Gd2O3 and stacked Gd2O3-Eu2O3 metal-insulator-metal capacitors

Gd2O3-based metal-insulator-metal capacitors have been characterized with single layer (Gd2O3) and bilayer (Gd2O3/Eu2O3 and Eu2O3/Gd2O3) stacks for analog and DRAM applications. Although single layer Gd2O3 capacitors provide highest capacitance density (15 fF/mu m(2)), they suffer from high leakage current density, poor capacitance density-voltage linearity, and reliability. The stacked dielectrics help to reduce leakage current density (1.2x10(-5) A/cm(2) and 2.7 x 10(-5) A/cm(2) for Gd2O3/Eu2O3 and Eu2O3/Gd2O3, respectively, at -1 V), improve quadratic voltage coefficient of capacitance (331 ppm/V-2 and 374 ppm/V-2 for Gd2O3/Eu2O3 and Eu2O3/Gd2O3, respectively, at 1 MHz), and improve reliability, with a marginal reduction in capacitance density. This is attributed to lower trap heights as determined from Poole-Frenkel conduction mechanism, and lower defect density as determined from electrode polarization model.

Estimation of time variant reliability of randomly parametered non-linear vibrating systems

The problem of time variant reliability analysis of randomly parametered and randomly driven nonlinear vibrating systems is considered. The study combines two Monte Carlo variance reduction strategies into a single framework to tackle the problem. The first of these strategies is based on the application of the Girsanov transformation to account for the randomness in dynamic excitations, and the second approach is fashioned after the subset simulation method to deal with randomness in system parameters. Illustrative examples include study of single/multi degree of freedom linear/non-linear inelastic randomly parametered building frame models driven by stationary/non-stationary, white/filtered white noise support acceleration. The estimated reliability measures are demonstrated to compare well with results from direct Monte Carlo simulations. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

System reliability of randomly vibrating structures: Computational modeling and laboratory testing

The problem of determination of system reliability of randomly vibrating structures arises in many application areas of engineering. We discuss in this paper approaches based on Monte Carlo simulations and laboratory testing to tackle problems of time variant system reliability estimation. The strategy we adopt is based on the application of Girsanov's transformation to the governing stochastic differential equations which enables estimation of probability of failure with significantly reduced number of samples than what is needed in a direct simulation study. Notably, we show that the ideas from Girsanov's transformation based Monte Carlo simulations can be extended to conduct laboratory testing to assess system reliability of engineering structures with reduced number of samples and hence with reduced testing times. Illustrative examples include computational studies on a 10 degree of freedom nonlinear system model and laboratory/computational investigations on road load response of an automotive system tested on a four post Lest rig. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Households WTP for the Reliability of Gas Supply

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