Uncertainties in annual riverine phosphorus load estimation: Impact of load estimation methodology, sampling frequency, baseflow index and catchment population density

Models developed to identify the rates and origins of nutrient export from land to stream require an accurate assessment of the nutrient load present in the water body in order to calibrate model parameters and structure. These data are rarely available at a representative scale and in an appropriate chemical form except in research catchments. Observational errors associated with nutrient load estimates based on these data lead to a high degree of uncertainty in modelling and nutrient budgeting studies. Here, daily paired instantaneous P and flow data for 17 UK research catchments covering a total of 39 water years (WY) have been used to explore the nature and extent of the observational error associated with nutrient flux estimates based on partial fractions and infrequent sampling. The daily records were artificially decimated to create 7 stratified sampling records, 7 weekly records, and 30 monthly records from each WY and catchment. These were used to evaluate the impact of sampling frequency on load estimate uncertainty. The analysis underlines the high uncertainty of load estimates based on monthly data and individual P fractions rather than total P. Catchments with a high baseflow index and/or low population density were found to return a lower RMSE on load estimates when sampled infrequently than those with a tow baseflow index and high population density. Catchment size was not shown to be important, though a limitation of this study is that daily records may fail to capture the full range of P export behaviour in smaller catchments with flashy hydrographs, leading to an underestimate of uncertainty in Load estimates for such catchments. Further analysis of sub-daily records is needed to investigate this fully. Here, recommendations are given on load estimation methodologies for different catchment types sampled at different frequencies, and the ways in which this analysis can be used to identify observational error and uncertainty for model calibration and nutrient budgeting studies. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effects of caffeic acid and bovine serum albumin in reducing the rate of development of rancidity in oil-in-water and water-in-oil emulsions

The antioxidant properties of caffeic acid and bovine serum albumin in oil-in-water and water-in-oil emulsions were studied. Caffeic acid (5 mmol/kg emulsion) showed good antioxidant properties in both 30% sunflower oil-in-water (OW) and 20% water-in-sunflower oil emulsions (WO), pH 5.4, during storage at 50 ºC. Although bovine serum albumin (BSA) (0.2%) had a slight antioxidant effect, the combination of caffeic acid and BSA showed a synergistic reduction in the rate of development of rancidity, with significant reductions in concentration of total volatiles, peroxide value (PV) and p-anisidine value (PA) for both emulsion types. The synergistic increase in stability of the OW and WO emulsions containing BSA and caffeic acid was 102.9 and 50.4 % respectively based on TOTOX values, which are calculated as 2PV + PA, with greater synergy calculated if based on formation of headspace volatiles, The OW emulsion was more susceptible to the development of headspace volatiles by oxidation than the WO emulsion, even though the degree of oxidation assessed by the TOTOX value was similar.

Who benefits from reducing the cost of formality? Quantile regression discontinuity analysis

This paper studies the effects of increasing formality via tax reduction and simplification schemes on micro-firm performance. It uses the 1997 Brazilian SIMPLES program. We develop a simple theoretical model to show that SIMPLES has an impact only on a segment of the micro-firm population, for which the effect of formality on firm performance can be identified, and that can be analyzed along the single dimensional quantiles of the conditional firm revenues. To estimate the effect of formality, we use an econometric approach that compares eligible and non-eligible firms, born before and after SIMPLES in a local interval about the introduction of SIMPLES. We use an estimator that combines both quantile regression and the regression discontinuity identification strategy. The empirical results corroborate the positive effect of formality on microfirms' performance and produce a clear characterization of who benefits from these programs.

The Impact of Land Use Patterns and Watershed Characteristics on China Lake, Kennebec County, Maine

China Lake is located in Kennebec County, Maine. Since 1983 the lake has suffered from yearly algal blooms as a result of the addition of excess nutrients. The nutrient load was amplified by erosion within the watershed. Erosion varies widely depending on a number of factors, including the slope of the land, the type of soil, and the way the land is being used. Certain land use types have a high potential to add nutrients to the environment, while others may help absorb excess nutrients and prevent erosion and runoff into the lake. A comprehensive examination of the China Lake watershed was completed using GIS to calculate the erosion potential for the entire area, taking into account past and present land use patterns. This information will help the towns around the lake to make informed decisions about future development and land management.

Reducing The Risk Of Floods In Urban Areas With Combined Inland-River System

With the change of the water environment in accordance with climate change, the loss of lives and properties has increased due to urban flood. Although the importance of urban floods has been highlighted quickly, the construction of advancement technology of an urban drainage system combined with inland-river water and its relevant research has not been emphasized in Korea. In addition, without operation in consideration of combined inland-river water, it is difficult to prevent urban flooding effectively. This study, therefore, develops the uncertainty quantification technology of the risk-based water level and the assessment technology of a flood-risk region through a flooding analysis of the combination of inland-river. The study is also conducted to develop forecast technology of change in the water level of an urban region through the construction of very short-term/short-term flood forecast systems. This study is expected to be able to build an urban flood forecast system which makes it possible to support decision making for systematic disaster prevention which can cope actively with climate change.

The Effects of Nectar-Robbing on Fruit Production in Sparattosperma leucanthum (Bignoniaceae)

Many animals behave as robbers or thieves of floral resources, causing damage to floral tissues or consuming resources used to attract pollinators, or producing effects similar to emasculation by reducing the pollen load in the anthers (which generally results in losses in terms of sexual reproduction). The present work examined the direct and indirect impacts caused by nectar-robbing on the reproductive success of Sparattosperma leucanthum. Different manipulations of the flowers were tested to determine if fruit production was influenced by the perforations made in the floral tissues (direct damage), and if there were changes in visitation frequencies or in the behaviors of effective pollinators (indirect damage). Perforations made by nectar robbers did not lower the reproductive success of the plant species studied. The bee Trigona spinipes was the most frequent visitor and caused the largest perforations in the calyx and corolla of S. leucanthum. Additionally, we noted the occurrence of pollen theft by this same bee in flowers that had been protected against nectar-robbing. These results suggest that if S. leucanthum had developed a mechanism of resistance to robbery by T spinipes it would probably have experienced even lower pollination levels as a result of reductions in the quantities of pollen available for transfer by effective pollinators. We were not able to evaluate if nectar depletion through robbery modified the behavior of the effective pollinators (bumblebees of the genus Bombus).

Monocular vision and increased distance reducing the effects of visual manipulation on body sway

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Reducing the gap between mobile and intelligent software agents

This paper presents an approach to integrate an artificial intelligence (AI) technique, concretely rule-based processing, into mobile agents. In particular, it focuses on the aspects of designing and implementing an appropriate inference engine of small size to reduce migration costs. The main goal is combine two lines of agent research, First, the engineering oriented approach on mobile agent architectures, and, second, the AI related approach on inference engines driven by rules expressed in a restricted subset of first-order predicate logic (FOPL). In addition to size reduction, the main functions of this type of engine were isolated, generalized and implemented as dynamic components, making possible not only their migration with the agent, but also their dynamic migration and loading on demand. A set of classes for representing and exchanging knowledge between rule-based systems was also proposed.

Partial characterization of the polluting load of swine wastewater treated with an integrated biodigestion system

The stabilization of swine wastewaters from swine confined housing by the combination of a upflow anaerobic sludge blanket (UASB) reactor and waste stabilization ponds is a viable alternative to minimize the environmental impact caused by inadequate disposal of swine wastewaters. In the present study, the polluting load of pre-decanted swine wastewater treated with a series of two 0.705 m(3) UASB reactors and then in parallel in aerated and non-aerated stabilization tanks was investigated from January to July, 2000. Physicochemical and microbiological analyses were made adopting standard methods (Standard Methods for Examination of Water and Wastewater, 19th ed., American Public Health Association, Washington, DC, 1995). COD values decreased as the wastewater ran through the integrated biodigestion system dropping from about 3492 +/- 511-4094 mg l(-1) +/- 481 to 124 +/- 52-490 mg l(-1) +/- 230, while nitrate and nitrite levels increased in stabilization tanks, ranging respectively from 4 +/- 0 to 20 mg l(-1) +/- 3 and 3 +/- 1 to 11 mg l(-1) +/- 24. Although the removal of Escherichia coli was more than 97% +/- 6, the effluents of the treatment system still contained unacceptable levels of E. coli (1.6 x 10(3)-1.2 x 10(6) 100 ml(-1)) according to WHO guidelines for use of wastewater in agriculture and aquaculture. These results indicate the necessity of changes on operational characteristics of the treatment system such as an increase of the hydraulic retention time in UASB reactors or in stabilization tanks. (C) 2003 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Numeric evaluation of the stiffness of log-concrete composite beams submitted the cyclical load

In this paper was evaluated, using the software ANSYS, the stiffness (El) of the log-concrete composite beams, of section T, with connectors formed by bonded-in steel rods, type CA-50, disposed in X, with application of cyclical load. The stiffness of the system was evaluated through the simulation of bending tests, considered 1/2 beam, with cyclical shipment varying among 40 % and 5 % of the strength of the connection with the load relationship R=0,125, for a total of 10 load cycles applied. The numeric results show a good agreement with experimental tests.

Characterization of the temperature, load and damage effects using piezoelectric transducer patches based on fuzzy clustering

Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) denotes a system with the ability to detect and interpret adverse changes in a structure. One of the critical challenges for practical implementation of SHM system is the ability to detect damage under changing environmental conditions. This paper aims to characterize the temperature, load and damage effects in the sensor measurements obtained with piezoelectric transducer (PZT) patches. Data sets are collected on thin aluminum specimens under different environmental conditions and artificially induced damage states. The fuzzy clustering algorithm is used to organize the sensor measurements into a set of clusters, which can attribute the variation in sensor data due to temperature, load or any induced damage.