Variational Bayes and the reduced dependence approximation for the autologistic model on an irregular grid with applications

Discrete Markov random field models provide a natural framework for representing images or spatial datasets. They model the spatial association present while providing a convenient Markovian dependency structure and strong edge-preservation properties. However, parameter estimation for discrete Markov random field models is difficult due to the complex form of the associated normalizing constant for the likelihood function. For large lattices, the reduced dependence approximation to the normalizing constant is based on the concept of performing computationally efficient and feasible forward recursions on smaller sublattices which are then suitably combined to estimate the constant for the whole lattice. We present an efficient computational extension of the forward recursion approach for the autologistic model to lattices that have an irregularly shaped boundary and which may contain regions with no data; these lattices are typical in applications. Consequently, we also extend the reduced dependence approximation to these scenarios enabling us to implement a practical and efficient non-simulation based approach for spatial data analysis within the variational Bayesian framework. The methodology is illustrated through application to simulated data and example images. The supplemental materials include our C++ source code for computing the approximate normalizing constant and simulation studies.

Collaborative academic/practitioner research in project management : theory and models

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to provide of a review of the theory and models underlying project management (PM) research degrees that encourage reflective learning. Design/methodology/approach – Review of the literature and reflection on the practice of being actively involved in conducting and supervising academic research and disseminating academic output. The paper argues the case for the potential usefulness of reflective academic research to PM practitioners. It also highlights theoretical drivers of and barriers to reflective academic research by PM practitioners. Findings – A reflective learning approach to research can drive practical results though it requires a great deal of commitment and support by both academic and industry partners. Practical implications – This paper suggests how PM practitioners can engage in academic research that has practical outcomes and how to be more effective at disseminating these research outcomes. Originality/value – Advanced academic degrees, in particular those completed by PM practitioners, can validate a valuable source of innovative ideas and approaches that should be more quickly absorbed into the PM profession’s sources of knowledge. The value of this paper is to critically review and facilitate a reduced adaptation time for implementation of useful reflective academic research to industry.

Environmental and economic evaluation of N fertilizer rates in a maize crop in Italy : a spatial and temporal analysis using crop models

Crop simulation models have the potential to assess the risk associated with the selection of a specific N fertilizer rate, by integrating the effects of soil-crop interactions on crop growth under different pedo-climatic and management conditions. The objective of this study was to simulate the environmental and economic impact (nitrate leaching and N2O emissions) of a spatially variable N fertilizer application in an irrigated maize field in Italy. The validated SALUS model was run with 5 nitrogen rates scenarios, 50, 100, 150, 200, and 250 kg N ha−1, with the latter being the N fertilization adopted by the farmer. The long-term (25 years) simulations were performed on two previously identified spatially and temporally stable zones, a high yielding and low yielding zone. The simulation results showed that N fertilizer rate can be reduced without affecting yield and net return. The marginal net return was on average higher for the high yield zone, with values ranging from 1550 to 2650 € ha−1 for the 200 N and 1485 to 2875 € ha−1 for the 250 N. N leaching varied between 16.4 and 19.3 kg N ha−1 for the 200 N and the 250 N in the high yield zone. In the low yield zone, the 250 N had a significantly higher N leaching. N2O emissions varied between 0.28 kg N2O ha−1 for the 50 kg N ha−1 rate to a maximum of 1.41 kg N2O ha−1 for the 250 kg N ha−1 rate.

Pedigree-free animal models : the relatedness matrix reloaded

Animal models typically require a known genetic pedigree to estimate quantitative genetic parameters. Here we test whether animal models can alternatively be based on estimates of relatedness derived entirely from molecular marker data. Our case study is the morphology of a wild bird population, for which we report estimates of the genetic variance-covariance matrices (G) of six morphological traits using three methods: the traditional animal model; a molecular marker-based approach to estimate heritability based on Ritland's pairwise regression method; and a new approach using a molecular genealogy arranged in a relatedness matrix (R) to replace the pedigree in an animal model. Using the traditional animal model, we found significant genetic variance for all six traits and positive genetic covariance among traits. The pairwise regression method did not return reliable estimates of quantitative genetic parameters in this population, with estimates of genetic variance and covariance typically being very small or negative. In contrast, we found mixed evidence for the use of the pedigree-free animal model. Similar to the pairwise regression method, the pedigree-free approach performed poorly when the full-rank R matrix based on the molecular genealogy was employed. However, performance improved substantially when we reduced the dimensionality of the R matrix in order to maximize the signal to noise ratio. Using reduced-rank R matrices generated estimates of genetic variance that were much closer to those from the traditional model. Nevertheless, this method was less reliable at estimating covariances, which were often estimated to be negative. Taken together, these results suggest that pedigree-free animal models can recover quantitative genetic information, although the signal remains relatively weak. It remains to be determined whether this problem can be overcome by the use of a more powerful battery of molecular markers and improved methods for reconstructing genealogies.

Reduced Il17a expression distinguishes a Ly6cloMHCIIhi macrophage population promoting wound healing

Macrophages are the main components of inflammation during skin wound healing. They are critical in wound closure and in excessive inflammation, resulting in defective healing observed in chronic wounds. Given the heterogeneity of macrophage phenotypes and functions, we here hypothesized that different subpopulations of macrophages would have different and sometimes opposing effects on wound healing. Using multimarker flow cytometry and RNA expression array analyses on macrophage subpopulations from wound granulation tissue, we identified a Ly6cloMHCIIhi “noninflammatory” subset that increased both in absolute number and proportion during normal wound healing and was missing in Ob/Ob and MYD88−/− models of delayed healing. We also identified IL17 as the main cytokine distinguishing this population from proinflammatory macrophages and demonstrated that inhibition of IL17 by blocking Ab or in IL17A−/− mice accelerated normal and delayed healing. These findings dissect the complexity of the role and activity of the macrophages during wound inflammation and may contribute to the development of therapeutic approaches to restore healing in chronic wounds.

Hazard based models for freeway traffic incident duration

Assessing and prioritising cost-effective strategies to mitigate the impacts of traffic incidents and accidents on non-recurrent congestion on major roads represents a significant challenge for road network managers. This research examines the influence of numerous factors associated with incidents of various types on their duration. It presents a comprehensive traffic incident data mining and analysis by developing an incident duration model based on twelve months of incident data obtained from the Australian freeway network. Parametric accelerated failure time (AFT) survival models of incident duration were developed, including log-logistic, lognormal, and Weibul-considering both fixed and random parameters, as well as a Weibull model with gamma heterogeneity. The Weibull AFT models with random parameters were appropriate for modelling incident duration arising from crashes and hazards. A Weibull model with gamma heterogeneity was most suitable for modelling incident duration of stationary vehicles. Significant variables affecting incident duration include characteristics of the incidents (severity, type, towing requirements, etc.), and location, time of day, and traffic characteristics of the incident. Moreover, the findings reveal no significant effects of infrastructure and weather on incident duration. A significant and unique contribution of this paper is that the durations of each type of incident are uniquely different and respond to different factors. The results of this study are useful for traffic incident management agencies to implement strategies to reduce incident duration, leading to reduced congestion, secondary incidents, and the associated human and economic losses.

Block models for improved earthwork allocation planning in linear infrastructure construction

Earthwork planning has been considered in this article and a generic block partitioning and modelling approach has been devised to provide strategic plans of various levels of detail. Conceptually this approach is more accurate and comprehensive than others, for instance those that are section based. In response to environmental concerns the metric for decision making was fuel consumption and emissions. Haulage distance and gradient are also included as they are important components of these metrics. Advantageously the fuel consumption metric is generic and captures the physical difficulties of travelling over inclines of different gradients, that is consistent across all hauling vehicles. For validation, the proposed models and techniques have been applied to a real world road project. The numerical investigations have demonstrated that the models can be solved with relatively little CPU time. The proposed block models also result in solutions of superior quality, i.e. they have reduced fuel consumption and cost. Furthermore the plans differ considerably from those based solely upon a distance based metric thus demonstrating a need for industry to reflect upon their current practices.

Damping structure selection in nonlinear ship manoeuvring models

This paper presents the application of a statistical method for model structure selection of lift-drag and viscous damping components in ship manoeuvring models. The damping model is posed as a family of linear stochastic models, which is postulated based on previous work in the literature. Then a nested test of hypothesis problem is considered. The testing reduces to a recursive comparison of two competing models, for which optimal tests in the Neyman sense exist. The method yields a preferred model structure and its initial parameter estimates. Alternatively, the method can give a reduced set of likely models. Using simulated data we study how the selection method performs when there is both uncorrelated and correlated noise in the measurements. The first case is related to instrumentation noise, whereas the second case is related to spurious wave-induced motion often present during sea trials. We then consider the model structure selection of a modern high-speed trimaran ferry from full scale trial data.

An MMP13-selective inhibitor delays primary tumor growth and the onset of tumor-associated osteolytic lesions in experimental models of breast cancer

We investigated the effects of the matrix metalloproteinase 13 (MMP13)-selective inhibitor, 5-(4-{4-[4-(4-fluorophenyl)-1,3-oxazol-2-yl]phenoxy}phenoxy)-5-(2-methoxyethyl) pyrimidine-2,4,6(1H,3H,5H)-trione (Cmpd-1), on the primary tumor growth and breast cancer-associated bone remodeling using xenograft and syngeneic mouse models. We used human breast cancer MDA-MB-231 cells inoculated into the mammary fat pad and left ventricle of BALB/c Nu/Nu mice, respectively, and spontaneously metastasizing 4T1.2-Luc mouse mammary cells inoculated into mammary fat pad of BALB/c mice. In a prevention setting, treatment with Cmpd-1 markedly delayed the growth of primary tumors in both models, and reduced the onset and severity of osteolytic lesions in the MDA-MB-231 intracardiac model. Intervention treatment with Cmpd-1 on established MDA-MB-231 primary tumors also significantly inhibited subsequent growth. In contrast, no effects of Cmpd-1 were observed on soft organ metastatic burden following intracardiac or mammary fat pad inoculations of MDA-MB-231 and 4T1.2-Luc cells respectively. MMP13 immunostaining of clinical primary breast tumors and experimental mice tumors revealed intra-tumoral and stromal expression in most tumors, and vasculature expression in all. MMP13 was also detected in osteoblasts in clinical samples of breast-to-bone metastases. The data suggest that MMP13-selective inhibitors, which lack musculoskeletal side effects, may have therapeutic potential both in primary breast cancer and cancer-induced bone osteolysis.

A comparison of mathematical models for phase separation in high-rate LiFePO4 cathodes

We construct a two-scale mathematical model for modern, high-rate LiFePO4cathodes. We attempt to validate against experimental data using two forms of the phase-field model developed recently to represent the concentration of Li+ in nano-sized LiFePO4crystals. We also compare this with the shrinking-core based model we developed previously. Validating against high-rate experimental data, in which electronic and electrolytic resistances have been reduced is an excellent test of the validity of the crystal-scale model used to represent the phase-change that may occur in LiFePO4material. We obtain poor fits with the shrinking-core based model, even with fitting based on “effective” parameter values. Surprisingly, using the more sophisticated phase-field models on the crystal-scale results in poorer fits, though a significant parameter regime could not be investigated due to numerical difficulties. Separate to the fits obtained, using phase-field based models embedded in a two-scale cathodic model results in “many-particle” effects consistent with those reported recently.

Survival models of community tenure and length of hospital stay for the seriously mentally ill : a 10-year perspective

Objective: To examine the effects of personal and community characteristics, specifically race and rurality, on lengths of state psychiatric hospital and community stays using maximum likelihood survival analysis with a special emphasis on change over a ten year period of time. Data Sources: We used the administrative data of the Virginia Department of Mental Health, Mental Retardation, and Substance Abuse Services (DMHMRSAS) from 1982-1991 and the Area Resources File (ARF). Given these two sources, we constructed a history file for each individual who entered the state psychiatric system over the ten year period. Histories included demographic, treatment, and community characteristics. Study Design: We used a longitudinal, population-based design with maximum likelihood estimation of survival models. We presented a random effects model with unobserved heterogeneity that was independent of observed covariates. The key dependent variables were lengths of inpatient stay and subsequent length of community stay. Explanatory variables measured personal, diagnostic, and community characteristics, as well as controls for calendar time. Data Collection: This study used secondary, administrative, and health planning data. Principal Findings: African-American clients leave the community more quickly than whites. After controlling for other characteristics, however, race does not affect hospital length of stay. Rurality does not affect length of community stays once other personal and community characteristics are controlled for. However, people from rural areas have longer hospital stays even after controlling for personal and community characteristics. The effects of time are significantly smaller than expected. Diagnostic composition effects and a decrease in the rate of first inpatient admissions explain part of this reduced impact of time. We also find strong evidence for the existence of unobserved heterogeneity in both types of stays and adjust for this in our final models. Conclusions: Our results show that information on client characteristics available from inpatient stay records is useful in predicting not only the length of inpatient stay but also the length of the subsequent community stay. This information can be used to target increased discharge planning for those at risk of more rapid readmission to inpatient care. Correlation across observed and unobserved factors affecting length of stay has significant effects on the measurement of relationships between individual factors and lengths of stay. Thus, it is important to control for both observed and unobserved factors in estimation.

Predicting reduced driver alertness on monotonous highways : a driving simulator study

Impaired driver alertness increases the likelihood of drivers’ making mistakes and reacting too late to unexpected events while driving. This is particularly a concern on monotonous roads, where a driver’s attention can decrease rapidly. While effective countermeasures do not currently exist, the development of in-vehicle sensors opens avenues for monitoring driving behavior in real-time. The aim of this study is to predict drivers’ level of alertness through surrogate measures collected from in-vehicle sensors. Electroencephalographic activity is used as a reference to evaluate alertness. Based on a sample of 25 drivers, data was collected in a driving simulator instrumented with an eye tracking system, a heart rate monitor and an electrodermal activity device. Various classification models were tested from linear regressions to Bayesians and data mining techniques. Results indicated that Neural Networks were the most efficient model in detecting lapses in alertness. Findings also show that reduced alertness can be predicted up to 5 minutes in advance with 90% accuracy, using surrogate measures such as time to line crossing, blink frequency and skin conductance level. Such a method could be used to warn drivers of their alertness level through the development of an in-vehicle device monitoring, in real-time, drivers' behavior on highways.

Multilevel competing risk models to evaluate the risk of nosocomial infection

Introduction Risk factor analyses for nosocomial infections (NIs) are complex. First, due to competing events for NI, the association between risk factors of NI as measured using hazard rates may not coincide with the association using cumulative probability (risk). Second, patients from the same intensive care unit (ICU) who share the same environmental exposure are likely to be more similar with regard to risk factors predisposing to a NI than patients from different ICUs. We aimed to develop an analytical approach to account for both features and to use it to evaluate associations between patient- and ICU-level characteristics with both rates of NI and competing risks and with the cumulative probability of infection. Methods We considered a multicenter database of 159 intensive care units containing 109,216 admissions (813,739 admission-days) from the Spanish HELICS-ENVIN ICU network. We analyzed the data using two models: an etiologic model (rate based) and a predictive model (risk based). In both models, random effects (shared frailties) were introduced to assess heterogeneity. Death and discharge without NI are treated as competing events for NI. Results There was a large heterogeneity across ICUs in NI hazard rates, which remained after accounting for multilevel risk factors, meaning that there are remaining unobserved ICU-specific factors that influence NI occurrence. Heterogeneity across ICUs in terms of cumulative probability of NI was even more pronounced. Several risk factors had markedly different associations in the rate-based and risk-based models. For some, the associations differed in magnitude. For example, high Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) scores were associated with modest increases in the rate of nosocomial bacteremia, but large increases in the risk. Others differed in sign, for example respiratory vs cardiovascular diagnostic categories were associated with a reduced rate of nosocomial bacteremia, but an increased risk. Conclusions A combination of competing risks and multilevel models is required to understand direct and indirect risk factors for NI and distinguish patient-level from ICU-level factors.

Reduced intensity conditioning for allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplant determines the kinetics of acute Graft-Versus-Host Disease

Background Preparative myeloablative conditioning regimens for allogeneic hematopoietic stem-cell transplantation (HSCT) may control malignancy and facilitate engraftment but also contribute to transplant related mortality, cytokine release, and acute graft-versus-host disease (GVHD). Reduced intensity conditioning (RIC) regimens have decreased transplant related mortality but the incidence of acute GVHD, while delayed, remains unchanged. There are currently no in vivo allogeneic models of RIC HSCT, limiting studies into the mechanism behind RIC-associated GVHD. Methods We developed two RIC HSCT models that result in delayed onset GVHD (major histocompatibility complex mismatched (UBI-GFP/BL6 [H-2b]→BALB/c [H-2d]) and major histocompatibility complex matched, minor histocompatibility mismatched (UBI-GFP/BL6 [H-2b]→BALB.B [H-2b])) enabling the effect of RIC on chimerism, dendritic cell (DC) chimerism, and GVHD to be investigated. Results In contrast with myeloablative conditioning, we observed that RIC-associated delayed-onset GVHD is characterized by low production of tumor necrosis factor-α, maintenance of host DC, phenotypic DC activation, increased T-regulatory cell numbers, and a delayed emergence of activated donor DC. Furthermore, changes to the peritransplant milieu in the recipient after RIC lead to the altered activation of DC and the induction of T-regulatory responses. Reduced intensity conditioning recipients suffer less early damage to GVHD target organs. However, as donor cells engraft, activated donor DC and rising levels of tumor necrosis factor-α are associated with a later onset of severe GVHD. Conclusions Delineating the mechanisms underlying delayed onset GVHD in RIC HSCT recipients is vital to improve the prediction of disease onset and allow more targeted interventions for acute GVHD.

The importance of connexin hemichannels during chondroprogenitor cell differentiation in hydrogel versus microtissue culture models

Appropriate selection of scaffold architecture is a key challenge in cartilage tissue engineering. Gap junction-mediated intercellular contacts play important roles in precartilage condensation of mesenchymal cells. However, scaffold architecture could potentially restrict cell-cell communication and differentiation. This is particularly important when choosing the appropriate culture platform as well as scaffold-based strategy for clinical translation, that is, hydrogel or microtissues, for investigating differentiation of chondroprogenitor cells in cartilage tissue engineering. We, therefore, studied the influence of gap junction-mediated cell-cell communication on chondrogenesis of bone marrow-derived mesenchymal stromal cells (BM-MSCs) and articular chondrocytes. Expanded human chondrocytes and BM-MSCs were either (re-) differentiated in micromass cell pellets or encapsulated as isolated cells in alginate hydrogels. Samples were treated with and without the gap junction inhibitor 18-α glycyrrhetinic acid (18αGCA). DNA and glycosaminoglycan (GAG) content and gene expression levels (collagen I/II/X, aggrecan, and connexin 43) were quantified at various time points. Protein localization was determined using immunofluorescence, and adenosine-5'-triphosphate (ATP) was measured in conditioned media. While GAG/DNA was higher in alginate compared with pellets for chondrocytes, there were no differences in chondrogenic gene expression between culture models. Gap junction blocking reduced collagen II and extracellular ATP in all chondrocyte cultures and in BM-MSC hydrogels. However, differentiation capacity was not abolished completely by 18αGCA. Connexin 43 levels were high throughout chondrocyte cultures and peaked only later during BM-MSC differentiation, consistent with the delayed response of BM-MSCs to 18αGCA. Alginate hydrogels and microtissues are equally suited culture platforms for the chondrogenic (re-)differentiation of expanded human articular chondrocytes and BM-MSCs. Therefore, reducing direct cell-cell contacts does not affect in vitro chondrogenesis. However, blocking gap junctions compromises cell differentiation, pointing to a prominent role for hemichannel function in this process. Therefore, scaffold design strategies that promote an increasing distance between single chondroprogenitor cells do not restrict their differentiation potential in tissue-engineered constructs.