Genetic evaluation using multi-trait and random regression models in Simmental beef cattle

The Brazilian Association of Simmental and Simbrasil Cattle Farmers provided 29,510 records from 10,659 Simmental beef cattle; these were used to estimate (co)variance components and genetic parameters for weights in the growth trajectory, based on multi-trait (MTM) and random regression models (RRM). The (co)variance components and genetic parameters were estimated by restricted maximum likelihood. In the MTM analysis, the likelihood ratio test was used to determine the significance of random effects included in the model and to define the most appropriate model. All random effects were significant and included in the final model. In the RRM analysis, different adjustments of polynomial orders were compared for 5 different criteria to choose the best fit model. An RRM of third order for the direct additive genetic, direct permanent environmental, maternal additive genetic, and maternal permanent environment effects was sufficient to model variance structures in the growth trajectory of the animals. The (co)variance components were generally similar in MTM and RRM. Direct heritabilities of MTM were slightly lower than RRM and varied from 0.04 to 0.42 and 0.16 to 0.45, respectively. Additive direct correlations were mostly positive and of high magnitude, being highest at closest ages. Considering the results and that pre-adjustment of the weights to standard ages is not required, RRM is recommended for genetic evaluation of Simmental beef cattle in Brazil. ©FUNPEC-RP.

Random regression models to estimate genetic parameters for milk production of Guzerat cows using orthogonal Legendre polynomials

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Pressure Dependence of N-15 Chemical Shifts in Model Peptides Ac-Gly-Gly-X-Ala-NH2

High pressure NMR spectroscopy has developed into an important tool for studying conformational equilibria of proteins in solution. We have studied the amide proton and nitrogen chemical shifts of the 20 canonical amino acids X in the random-coil model peptide Ac-Gly-Gly-X-Ala-NH2, in a pressure range from 0.1 to 200 MPa, at a proton resonance frequency of 800 MHz. The obtained data allowed the determination of first and second order pressure coefficients with high accuracy at 283 K and pH 6.7. The mean first and second order pressure coefficients <B-1(15N)> and <B-2(15N)> for nitrogen are 2.91 ppm/GPa and -2.32 ppm/GPa(2), respectively. The corresponding values <B-1(1H)> and <B-2(1H)> for the amide protons are 0.52 ppm/GPa and -0.41 ppm/GPa(2). Residual dependent (1)J(1H15N)-coupling constants are shown.

Design-based random permutation models with auxiliary information

We extend the random permutation model to obtain the best linear unbiased estimator of a finite population mean accounting for auxiliary variables under simple random sampling without replacement (SRS) or stratified SRS. The proposed method provides a systematic design-based justification for well-known results involving common estimators derived under minimal assumptions that do not require specification of a functional relationship between the response and the auxiliary variables.

Pore structure and column efficiency of silica monoliths in high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC)

Five different methods were critically examined to characterize the pore structure of the silica monoliths. The mesopore characterization was performed using: a) the classical BJH method of nitrogen sorption data, which showed overestimated values in the mesopore distribution and was improved by using the NLDFT method, b) the ISEC method implementing the PPM and PNM models, which were especially developed for monolithic silicas, that contrary to the particulate supports, demonstrate the two inflection points in the ISEC curve, enabling the calculation of pore connectivity, a measure for the mass transfer kinetics in the mesopore network, c) the mercury porosimetry using a new recommended mercury contact angle values. rnThe results of the characterization of mesopores of monolithic silica columns by the three methods indicated that all methods were useful with respect to the pore size distribution by volume, but only the ISEC method with implemented PPM and PNM models gave the average pore size and distribution based on the number average and the pore connectivity values.rnThe characterization of the flow-through pore was performed by two different methods: a) the mercury porosimetry, which was used not only for average flow-through pore value estimation, but also the assessment of entrapment. It was found that the mass transfer from the flow-through pores to mesopores was not hindered in case of small sized flow-through pores with a narrow distribution, b) the liquid penetration where the average flow-through pore values were obtained via existing equations and improved by the additional methods developed according to Hagen-Poiseuille rules. The result was that not the flow-through pore size influences the column bock pressure, but the surface area to volume ratio of silica skeleton is most decisive. Thus the monolith with lowest ratio values will be the most permeable. rnThe flow-through pore characterization results obtained by mercury porosimetry and liquid permeability were compared with the ones from imaging and image analysis. All named methods enable a reliable characterization of the flow-through pore diameters for the monolithic silica columns, but special care should be taken about the chosen theoretical model.rnThe measured pore characterization parameters were then linked with the mass transfer properties of monolithic silica columns. As indicated by the ISEC results, no restrictions in mass transfer resistance were noticed in mesopores due to their high connectivity. The mercury porosimetry results also gave evidence that no restrictions occur for mass transfer from flow-through pores to mesopores in the small scaled silica monoliths with narrow distribution. rnThe prediction of the optimum regimes of the pore structural parameters for the given target parameters in HPLC separations was performed. It was found that a low mass transfer resistance in the mesopore volume is achieved when the nominal diameter of the number average size distribution of the mesopores is appr. an order of magnitude larger that the molecular radius of the analyte. The effective diffusion coefficient of an analyte molecule in the mesopore volume is strongly dependent on the value of the nominal pore diameter of the number averaged pore size distribution. The mesopore size has to be adapted to the molecular size of the analyte, in particular for peptides and proteins. rnThe study on flow-through pores of silica monoliths demonstrated that the surface to volume of the skeletons ratio and external porosity are decisive for the column efficiency. The latter is independent from the flow-through pore diameter. The flow-through pore characteristics by direct and indirect approaches were assessed and theoretical column efficiency curves were derived. The study showed that next to the surface to volume ratio, the total porosity and its distribution of the flow-through pores and mesopores have a substantial effect on the column plate number, especially as the extent of adsorption increases. The column efficiency is increasing with decreasing flow through pore diameter, decreasing with external porosity, and increasing with total porosity. Though this tendency has a limit due to heterogeneity of the studied monolithic samples. We found that the maximum efficiency of the studied monolithic research columns could be reached at a skeleton diameter of ~ 0.5 µm. Furthermore when the intention is to maximize the column efficiency, more homogeneous monoliths should be prepared.rn

Evaluation of a Bayesian MCMC Random Effects Inference Methodology for Capture-Mark-Recapture Data

Monte Carlo simulation was used to evaluate properties of a simple Bayesian MCMC analysis of the random effects model for single group Cormack-Jolly-Seber capture-recapture data. The MCMC method is applied to the model via a logit link, so parameters p, S are on a logit scale, where logit(S) is assumed to have, and is generated from, a normal distribution with mean μ and variance σ2 . Marginal prior distributions on logit(p) and μ were independent normal with mean zero and standard deviation 1.75 for logit(p) and 100 for μ ; hence minimally informative. Marginal prior distribution on σ2 was placed on τ2=1/σ2 as a gamma distribution with α=β=0.001 . The study design has 432 points spread over 5 factors: occasions (t) , new releases per occasion (u), p, μ , and σ . At each design point 100 independent trials were completed (hence 43,200 trials in total), each with sample size n=10,000 from the parameter posterior distribution. At 128 of these design points comparisons are made to previously reported results from a method of moments procedure. We looked at properties of point and interval inference on μ , and σ based on the posterior mean, median, and mode and equal-tailed 95% credibility interval. Bayesian inference did very well for the parameter μ , but under the conditions used here, MCMC inference performance for σ was mixed: poor for sparse data (i.e., only 7 occasions) or σ=0 , but good when there were sufficient data and not small σ .

Regularized model learning in EDAs for continuous and multi-objective optimization

Probabilistic modeling is the de�ning characteristic of estimation of distribution algorithms (EDAs) which determines their behavior and performance in optimization. Regularization is a well-known statistical technique used for obtaining an improved model by reducing the generalization error of estimation, especially in high-dimensional problems. `1-regularization is a type of this technique with the appealing variable selection property which results in sparse model estimations. In this thesis, we study the use of regularization techniques for model learning in EDAs. Several methods for regularized model estimation in continuous domains based on a Gaussian distribution assumption are presented, and analyzed from di�erent aspects when used for optimization in a high-dimensional setting, where the population size of EDA has a logarithmic scale with respect to the number of variables. The optimization results obtained for a number of continuous problems with an increasing number of variables show that the proposed EDA based on regularized model estimation performs a more robust optimization, and is able to achieve signi�cantly better results for larger dimensions than other Gaussian-based EDAs. We also propose a method for learning a marginally factorized Gaussian Markov random �eld model using regularization techniques and a clustering algorithm. The experimental results show notable optimization performance on continuous additively decomposable problems when using this model estimation method. Our study also covers multi-objective optimization and we propose joint probabilistic modeling of variables and objectives in EDAs based on Bayesian networks, speci�cally models inspired from multi-dimensional Bayesian network classi�ers. It is shown that with this approach to modeling, two new types of relationships are encoded in the estimated models in addition to the variable relationships captured in other EDAs: objectivevariable and objective-objective relationships. An extensive experimental study shows the e�ectiveness of this approach for multi- and many-objective optimization. With the proposed joint variable-objective modeling, in addition to the Pareto set approximation, the algorithm is also able to obtain an estimation of the multi-objective problem structure. Finally, the study of multi-objective optimization based on joint probabilistic modeling is extended to noisy domains, where the noise in objective values is represented by intervals. A new version of the Pareto dominance relation for ordering the solutions in these problems, namely �-degree Pareto dominance, is introduced and its properties are analyzed. We show that the ranking methods based on this dominance relation can result in competitive performance of EDAs with respect to the quality of the approximated Pareto sets. This dominance relation is then used together with a method for joint probabilistic modeling based on `1-regularization for multi-objective feature subset selection in classi�cation, where six di�erent measures of accuracy are considered as objectives with interval values. The individual assessment of the proposed joint probabilistic modeling and solution ranking methods on datasets with small-medium dimensionality, when using two di�erent Bayesian classi�ers, shows that comparable or better Pareto sets of feature subsets are approximated in comparison to standard methods.

Testing the niche apportionment hypothesis with parasite communities: is random assortment always the rule?

Niche apportionment models have only been applied once to parasite communities. Only the random assortment model (RA), which indicates that species abundances are independent from each other and that interspecific competition is unimportant, provided a good fit to 3 out of 6 parasite communities investigated. The generality of this result needs to be validated, however. In this study we apply 5 niche apportionment models to the parasite communities of 14 fish species from the Great Barrier Reef. We determined which model fitted the data when using either numerical abundance or biomass as an estimate of parasite abundance, and whether the fit of niche apportionment models depends on how the parasite community is defined (e.g. ecto, endoparasites or all parasites considered together). The RA model provided a good fit for the whole community of parasites in 7 fish species when using biovolume (as a surrogate of biomass) as a measure of species abundance. The RA model also fitted observed data when ecto- and endoparasites were considered separately, using abundance or biovolume, but less frequently. Variation in fish sizes among species was not associated with the probability of a model fitting the data. Total numerical abundance and biovolume of parasites were not related across host species, suggesting that they capture different aspects of abundance. Biovolume is not only a better measurement to use with niche-orientated models, it should also be the preferred descriptor to analyse parasite community structure in other contexts. Most of the biological assumptions behind the RA model, i.e. randomness in apportioning niche space, lack of interspecific competition, independence of abundance among different species, and species with variable niches in changeable environments, are in accordance with some previous findings on parasite communities. Thus, parasite communities may generally be unsaturated with species, with empty niches, and interspecific interactions may generally be unimportant in determining parasite community structure.

Statnote 30 : The one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA):fixed effects model

In Statnote 9, we described a one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) ‘random effects’ model in which the objective was to estimate the degree of variation of a particular measurement and to compare different sources of variation in space and time. The illustrative scenario involved the role of computer keyboards in a University communal computer laboratory as a possible source of microbial contamination of the hands. The study estimated the aerobic colony count of ten selected keyboards with samples taken from two keys per keyboard determined at 9am and 5pm. This type of design is often referred to as a ‘nested’ or ‘hierarchical’ design and the ANOVA estimated the degree of variation: (1) between keyboards, (2) between keys within a keyboard, and (3) between sample times within a key. An alternative to this design is a 'fixed effects' model in which the objective is not to measure sources of variation per se but to estimate differences between specific groups or treatments, which are regarded as 'fixed' or discrete effects. This statnote describes two scenarios utilizing this type of analysis: (1) measuring the degree of bacterial contamination on 2p coins collected from three types of business property, viz., a butcher’s shop, a sandwich shop, and a newsagent and (2) the effectiveness of drugs in the treatment of a fungal eye infection.

Evolution, recurrency and kernels in learning to model inflation

This paper provides the most fully comprehensive evidence to date on whether or not monetary aggregates are valuable for forecasting US inflation in the early to mid 2000s. We explore a wide range of different definitions of money, including different methods of aggregation and different collections of included monetary assets. We use non-linear, artificial intelligence techniques, namely, recurrent neural networks, evolution strategies and kernel methods in our forecasting experiment. In the experiment, these three methodologies compete to find the best fitting US inflation forecasting models and are then compared to forecasts from a naive random walk model. The best models were non-linear autoregressive models based on kernel methods. Our findings do not provide much support for the usefulness of monetary aggregates in forecasting inflation. There is evidence in the literature that evolutionary methods can be used to evolve kernels hence our future work should combine the evolutionary and kernel methods to get the benefits of both.

On Multi-Dimensional Random Walk Models Approximating Symmetric Space-Fractional Diffusion Processes

Mathematics Subject Classification: 26A33, 47B06, 47G30, 60G50, 60G52, 60G60.

Parameterized Link Functions in Generalized Linear Random Effect Models: a Case Study on Breast Cancer Treatment

In non-linear random effects some attention has been very recently devoted to the analysis ofsuitable transformation of the response variables separately (Taylor 1996) or not (Oberg and Davidian 2000) from the transformations of the covariates and, as far as we know, no investigation has been carried out on the choice of link function in such models. In our study we consider the use of a random effect model when a parameterized family of links (Aranda-Ordaz 1981, Prentice 1996, Pregibon 1980, Stukel 1988 and Czado 1997) is introduced. We point out the advantages and the drawbacks associated with the choice of this data-driven kind of modeling. Difficulties in the interpretation of regression parameters, and therefore in understanding the influence of covariates, as well as problems related to loss of efficiency of estimates and overfitting, are discussed. A case study on radiotherapy usage in breast cancer treatment is discussed.

Sources of variation of energy and nutrient intake among adolescents in São Paulo, Brazil

The aim of the current study was to describe the sources of variation of energy and nutrient intake and to calculate the number of repetitions of diet measurements to estimate usual intake in adolescents from São Paulo, Brazil. Data was collected using 24-hour dietary recalls (24hR) in 273 adolescents between 2007 and 2008. Individuals completed a repeat 24hR around two months later. The sources of variation were estimated using the random effect model. Variance ratios (within-person to between-person variance ratio) and the number of repetitions of 24hR to estimate usual intake were calculated. The principal source of variation was due to within-person variance. The contribution of day of week and month of year was less than 8%. Variations ranged from 1.15 for calcium to 7.31 for vitamin E. The number of 24hR repeats required to estimate usual intake varied according to nutrient and gender, numbering 15 for males and 8 for females.

Fontes de variação da ingestão de energia e nutrientes entre adolescentes do Município de São Paulo, Brasil

Este estudo propôs-se a descrever as fontes de variação da ingestão de energia e nutrientes e calcular o número de dias necessários para a estimativa da ingestão habitual em adolescentes do Município de São Paulo, Brasil. Foi aplicado um recordatório alimentar de 24 horas (R24h) em 273 adolescentes, durante os anos de 2007 e 2008, e posteriormente cada indivíduo foi convidado a responder a outro R24h. Foram estimadas as fontes de variação da ingestão utilizando-se modelo de efeitos aleatórios. A variância intrapessoal foi o componente de variância que mais contribuiu para a variabilidade da ingestão de energia e nutrientes, ao passo que a contribuição do dia da semana e mês do ano foi pequena (< 8por cento ) para a variabilidade total da ingestão. As razões de variância variaram de 1,15 para o cálcio a 7,31 para a vitamina E. O número de R24h necessário para estimar a ingestão habitual variou de acordo com o nutriente: em torno de 15 para o sexo masculino e 8 para o feminino

Spontaneous symmetry breaking in amnestically induced persistence

We investigate a recently proposed non-Markovian random walk model characterized by loss of memories of the recent past and amnestically induced persistence. We report numerical and analytical results showing the complete phase diagram, consisting of four phases, for this system: (i) classical nonpersistence, (ii) classical persistence, (iii) log-periodic nonpersistence, and (iv) log-periodic persistence driven by negative feedback. The first two phases possess continuous scale invariance symmetry, however, log-periodicity breaks this symmetry. Instead, log-periodic motion satisfies discrete scale invariance symmetry, with complex rather than real fractal dimensions. We find for log-periodic persistence evidence not only of statistical but also of geometric self-similarity.