Lauhdevoimakapasiteetin ennenaikaisen poistumisen energiataloudelliset vaikutukset

Tässä diplomityössä on tutkittu lauhdekapasiteetin ennenaikaisen markkinoilta poistumisen energiataloudellisia vaikutuksia. Tarkastelu toteutettiin sähkömarkkinamallinnuksen avulla luomalla kaksi erilaista lauhdekapasiteettiskenaariota perustuen arvioituun lauhdekapasiteetin poistumiseen sekä vastavuoroisesti sen säilymiseen markkinoilla. Skenaarioiden vaikutuksia tutkittiin myös herkkyystarkasteluin ja tuloksia analysoitiin energiataloudellisesta näkökulmasta. Työn tavoitteena oli selvittää lauhdekapasiteetin ennenaikaisen poistumisen energiataloudellista kustannusta. Viime vuosien pitkittynyt talouden taantuma on hillinnyt kysynnän ennakoitua kehitystä johtaen alhaiseen sähkön markkinahintatasoon. Samalla tiukentuneet energiatuotannon ympäristövaatimukset asettavat investointirasitteita perinteisille voimalaitoksille heikentäen niiden taloudellisen kannattavuuden edellytyksiä. Markkinasähkön alhainen hintataso yhdessä investointirasitteiden kanssa asettaa haasteita etenkin usein rajatuotantomuotona toimiville lauhdelaitoksille. Alhaisen kannattavuuden seurauksena lauhdekapasiteettia arvioidaan poistuvan ennen teknisen käyttöiän täyttymistä markkinoilta merkittävästi lähivuosina. Kapasiteetin poistuminen kasvattaa oman tuotannon ja kysynnän välistä tehovajetta, minkä vuoksi sähköjärjestelmän nähdään tiukentuvan merkittävästi ennen rakenteilla olevan ydinvoimalaitoksen valmistumista. Työssä toteutettujen mallinnusten perusteella lauhdekapasiteetin väheneminen nostaa sähkön hintatasoa sekä lisää korkeiden hintapiikkien esiintymistä merkittävästi suhteessa korkeamman kapasiteetin tuloksiin. Sähköjärjestelmä on hyvin tiukka ennen rakenteilla olevan ydinvoimalaitoksen käyttöönottoa, minkä vuoksi lauhdekapasiteetin eroavaisuuksien vaikutukset ovat merkittävä etenkin poikkeuksellisen kylmänä vuotena. Lauhdekapasiteetin merkitys pienenee selvästi 2020-luvulla, kun oma tuotantokapasiteetti kasvaa. Työn tulosten perusteella lähivuosina alhaisemman lauhdekapasiteetin aiheuttama vuotuinen energiataloudellinen kustannus on huomattavasti korkeampi kuin laitosten kannattavan ylläpidon vaatima kustannus.

Improving Cost-Efficiency and Reducing Environmental Impacts of Intermodal Transportation with Dry Port Concept – Major Rail Transport Corridor in Baltic Sea Region

Transportation plays a major role in the gross domestic product of various nations. There are, however, many obstacles hindering the transportation sector. Cost-efficiency along with proper delivery times, high frequency and reliability are not a straightforward task. Furthermore, environmental friendliness has increased the importance of the whole transportation sector. This development will change roles inside the transportation sector. Even now, but especially in the future, decisions regarding the transportation sector will be partly based on emission levels and other externalities originating from transportation in addition to pure transportation costs. There are different factors, which could have an impact on the transportation sector. IMO’s sulphur regulation is estimated to increase the costs of short sea shipping in the Baltic Sea. Price development of energy could change the roles of different transport modes. Higher awareness of the environmental impacts originating from transportation could also have an impact on the price level of more polluting transport modes. According to earlier research, increased inland transportation, modal shift and slowsteaming can be possible results of these changes in the transportation sector. Possible changes in the transportation sector and ways to settle potential obstacles are studied in this dissertation. Furthermore, means to improve cost-efficiency and to decrease environmental impacts originating from transportation are researched. Hypothetical Finnish dry port network and Rail Baltica transport corridor are studied in this dissertation. Benefits and disadvantages are studied with different methodologies. These include gravitational models, which were optimized with linear integer programming, discrete-event and system dynamics simulation, an interview study and a case study. Geographical focus is on the Baltic Sea Region, but the results can be adapted to other geographical locations with discretion. Results indicate that the dry port concept has benefits, but optimization regarding the location and the amount of dry ports plays an important role. In addition, the utilization of dry ports for freight transportation should be carefully operated, since only a certain amount of total freight volume can be cost-efficiently transported through dry ports. If dry ports are created and located without proper planning, they could actually increase transportation costs and delivery times of the whole transportation system. With an optimized dry port network, transportation costs can be lowered in Finland with three to five dry ports. Environmental impacts can be lowered with up to nine dry ports. If more dry ports are added to the system, the benefits become very minor, i.e. payback time of investments becomes extremely long. Furthermore, dry port network could support major transport corridors such as Rail Baltica. Based on an analysis of statistics and interview study, there could be enough freight volume available for Rail Baltica, especially, if North-West Russia is part of the Northern end of the corridor. Transit traffic to and from Russia (especially through the Baltic States) plays a large role. It could be possible to increase transit traffic through Finland by connecting the potential Finnish dry port network and the studied transport corridor. Additionally, sulphur emission regulation is assumed to increase the attractiveness of Rail Baltica in the year 2015. Part of the transit traffic could be rerouted along Rail Baltica instead of the Baltic Sea, since the price level of sea transport could increase due to the sulphur regulation. Both, the hypothetical Finnish dry port network and Rail Baltica transport corridor could benefit each other. The dry port network could gain more market share from Russia, but also from Central Europe, which is the other end of Rail Baltica. In addition, further Eastern countries could also be connected to achieve higher potential freight volume by rail.

Heterodox Inflation Stabilization in Argentina, Brazil, and Israel. A Historical Review and Some Stylized Facts

This article presents a review of the stabilization attempts in Argentina, Brazil, and Israel during the 1980’s. Earlier research is summarized and complemented with additional sources of contemporaneous information and a detailed analysis of institutional features. The examination of these episodes underscores the strong economic and empirical relationship between the governments’ fiscal policy and the rate of inflation.

Credibility and Signaling in Disinflation- a Cross Country Examination

This paper develops a model of money demand where the opportunity cost of holding money is subject to regime changes. The regimes are fully characterized by the mean and variance of inflation and are assumed to be the result of alternative government policies. Agents are unable to directly observe whether government actions are indeed consistent with the inflation rate targeted as part of a stabilization program but can construct probability inferences on the basis of available observations of inflation and money growth. Government announcements are assumed to provide agents with additional, possibly truthful information regarding the regime. This specification is estimated and tested using data from the Israeli and Argentine high inflation periods. Results indicate the successful stabilization program implemented in Israel in July 1985 was more credible than either the earlier Israeli attempt in November 1984 or the Argentine programs. Government’s signaling might substantially simplify the inference problem and increase the speed of learning on the part of the agents. However, under certain conditions, it might increase the volatility of inflation. After the introduction of an inflation stabilization plan, the welfare gains from a temporary increase in real balances might be high enough to induce agents to raise their real balances in the short-term, even if they are uncertain about the nature of government policy and the eventual outcome of the stabilization attempt. Statistically, the model restrictions cannot be rejected at the 1% significance level.

Méthodes d’inférence exactes pour un modèle de régression avec erreurs AR(2) gaussiennes

Ce texte propose des méthodes d’inférence exactes (tests et régions de confiance) sur des modèles de régression linéaires avec erreurs autocorrélées suivant un processus autorégressif d’ordre deux [AR(2)], qui peut être non stationnaire. L’approche proposée est une généralisation de celle décrite dans Dufour (1990) pour un modèle de régression avec erreurs AR(1) et comporte trois étapes. Premièrement, on construit une région de confiance exacte pour le vecteur des coefficients du processus autorégressif (φ). Cette région est obtenue par inversion de tests d’indépendance des erreurs sur une forme transformée du modèle contre des alternatives de dépendance aux délais un et deux. Deuxièmement, en exploitant la dualité entre tests et régions de confiance (inversion de tests), on détermine une région de confiance conjointe pour le vecteur φ et un vecteur d’intérêt M de combinaisons linéaires des coefficients de régression du modèle. Troisièmement, par une méthode de projection, on obtient des intervalles de confiance «marginaux» ainsi que des tests à bornes exacts pour les composantes de M. Ces méthodes sont appliquées à des modèles du stock de monnaie (M2) et du niveau des prix (indice implicite du PNB) américains

Inflation dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve: an identification robust econometric analysis

In this paper, we use identification-robust methods to assess the empirical adequacy of a New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) equation. We focus on the Gali and Gertler’s (1999) specification, on both U.S. and Canadian data. Two variants of the model are studied: one based on a rationalexpectations assumption, and a modification to the latter which consists in using survey data on inflation expectations. The results based on these two specifications exhibit sharp differences concerning: (i) identification difficulties, (ii) backward-looking behavior, and (ii) the frequency of price adjustments. Overall, we find that there is some support for the hybrid NKPC for the U.S., whereas the model is not suited to Canada. Our findings underscore the need for employing identificationrobust inference methods in the estimation of expectations-based dynamic macroeconomic relations.

Supply response and Cost of production of natural rubber- an econometric study

The study deals with the short and long term supply response of the natural rubber in India and to analyse the macro economic environment of NR industry and causative factors of the rubber price crash. It determines the minimum cost of production of natural rubber and to forecast the potential production of NR in India. There is positive response of short run and long run supply to prices. Since correlation analysis show close association between international and domestic price level, international price changes will have its domestic echo. Production and consumption will sustain its rising trend. This makes plans for increasing production estimates show that a mid way level i.e. the range between Rs.32-Rs.38 will give a fair enough profit to the grower in the present situation and provide for the viable sustenance of rubber cultivation. Identification of the SWOT of rubber cultivation would help in supporting rubber cultivation if remedial measures are undertaken with the true spirit. This would help Indian rubber to attain global competitiveness. Then the inflow of valuable foreign exchange will overcome the other economic drawbacks of rubber cultivation

Impact of Monetary Policy on Indian Economy in the Post-Reform Period

The present study was an attempt to analyze systematically the techniques of monetary control measures with its relevance and changing importance and to find out their effectiveness in the Indian context especially to achieve the thriving objectives of price stability and economic growth.There is definite and remarkable economic impact of monetary policy on Indian economy in the post-reform period. The importance of monetary policy has been increasing year after year. Its role is very relevant in attaining monetary objectives, especially in managing price stability and achieving economic growth. Along that, the use and importance of monetary weapons like Bank rate, CRR, SLR, Repo rate and Reverse Rate have increased over the years. Repo and Reverse Repo rates are the most frequently used monetary techniques in recent years. The rates are varied mainly for curtailing inflation and absorb the excess liquidity and hence to maintain price stability in the economy. Thus, this short-time objective of price stability is more successful on Indian economy rather than other long-term objectives of development.Monetary policy rules can be active or passive. The passive rule is to keep the money supply constant, which is reminiscent of Milton Friedman’s money growth rule. The second, called a price stabilization rule, is to change the money supply in response to changes in aggregate supply or demand to keep the price level constant. The idea of an active rule is to keep the price level and hence inflation in check. In India, this rule dominates our monetary policy. A stable growth is healthy growth.

Individual Decision-Making and Inflation Persistence

The traditional task of a central bank is to preserve price stability and, in doing so, not to impair the real economy more than necessary. To meet this challenge, it is of great relevance whether inflation is only driven by inflation expectations and the current output gap or whether it is, in addition, influenced by past inflation. In the former case, as described by the New Keynesian Phillips curve, the central bank can immediately and simultaneously achieve price stability and equilibrium output, the so-called ‘divine coincidence’ (Blanchard and Galí 2007). In the latter case, the achievement of price stability is costly in terms of output and will be pursued over several periods. Similarly, it is important to distinguish this latter case, which describes ‘intrinsic’ inflation persistence, from that of ‘extrinsic’ inflation persistence, where the sluggishness of inflation is not a ‘structural’ feature of the economy but merely ‘inherited’ from the sluggishness of the other driving forces, inflation expectations and output. ‘Extrinsic’ inflation persistence is usually considered to be the less challenging case, as policy-makers are supposed to fight against the persistence in the driving forces, especially to reduce the stickiness of inflation expectations by a credible monetary policy, in order to reestablish the ‘divine coincidence’. The scope of this dissertation is to contribute to the vast literature and ongoing discussion on inflation persistence: Chapter 1 describes the policy consequences of inflation persistence and summarizes the empirical and theoretical literature. Chapter 2 compares two models of staggered price setting, one with a fixed two-period duration and the other with a stochastic duration of prices. I show that in an economy with a timeless optimizing central bank the model with the two-period alternating price-setting (for most parameter values) leads to more persistent inflation than the model with stochastic price duration. This result amends earlier work by Kiley (2002) who found that the model with stochastic price duration generates more persistent inflation in response to an exogenous monetary shock. Chapter 3 extends the two-period alternating price-setting model to the case of 3- and 4-period price durations. This results in a more complex Phillips curve with a negative impact of past inflation on current inflation. As simulations show, this multi-period Phillips curve generates a too low degree of autocorrelation and too early turnings points of inflation and is outperformed by a simple Hybrid Phillips curve. Chapter 4 starts from the critique of Driscoll and Holden (2003) on the relative real-wage model of Fuhrer and Moore (1995). While taking the critique seriously that Fuhrer and Moore’s model will collapse to a much simpler one without intrinsic inflation persistence if one takes their arguments literally, I extend the model by a term for inequality aversion. This model extension is not only in line with experimental evidence but results in a Hybrid Phillips curve with inflation persistence that is observably equivalent to that presented by Fuhrer and Moore (1995). In chapter 5, I present a model that especially allows to study the relationship between fairness attitudes and time preference (impatience). In the model, two individuals take decisions in two subsequent periods. In period 1, both individuals are endowed with resources and are able to donate a share of their resources to the other individual. In period 2, the two individuals might join in a common production after having bargained on the split of its output. The size of the production output depends on the relative share of resources at the end of period 1 as the human capital of the individuals, which is built by means of their resources, cannot fully be substituted one against each other. Therefore, it might be rational for a well-endowed individual in period 1 to act in a seemingly ‘fair’ manner and to donate own resources to its poorer counterpart. This decision also depends on the individuals’ impatience which is induced by the small but positive probability that production is not possible in period 2. As a general result, the individuals in the model economy are more likely to behave in a ‘fair’ manner, i.e., to donate resources to the other individual, the lower their own impatience and the higher the productivity of the other individual. As the (seemingly) ‘fair’ behavior is modelled as an endogenous outcome and as it is related to the aspect of time preference, the presented framework might help to further integrate behavioral economics and macroeconomics.

Seasonality and the valuation of commodity options

Price movements in many commodity markets exhibit significant seasonal patterns. However, given an observed futures price, a deterministic seasonal component at the price level is not relevant for the pricing of commodity options. In contrast, this is not true for the seasonal pattern observed in the volatility of the commodity price. Analyzing an extensive sample of soybean, corn, heating oil and natural gas options, we find that seasonality in volatility is an important aspect to consider when valuing these contracts. The inclusion of an appropriate seasonality adjustment significantly reduces pricing errors in these markets and yields more improvement in valuation accuracy than increasing the number of stochastic factors.

Kundernas behov i butiksmiljöer : Skillnaderna mellan handlares och kunders uppfattning av kundernas behov i klädbutiker

Konkurrensen inom detaljhandeln blir allt hårdare, både från andra butiker men även från e-handeln, vilket sätter press på fysiska butiker att ha nöjda kunder som fortsätter handla i butiken. Ett tillvägagångssätt för att möta den hårdnande konkurrensen är att ha en butiksmiljö s.k. servicescape som är utformad efter kundernas behov, vilket dock förutsätter att handlarna vet vilka behov sina kunder har. Har handlarna en felaktig uppfattning om kundernas behov föreligger det ett gap som minskar chansen att kunderna blir nöjda och därmed butikens konkurrenskraft. En avgränsning gjordes till klädbutiker, då klädbutiker är bland de butikstyper som är mest konkurrensutsatt. Syftet med uppsatsen var att kartlägga hur kundernas behov överensstämmer eller skiljer sig från handlarnas uppfattning om deras behov. För att uppfylla syftet tillämpades en kvalitativ metod men med en statistisk bearbetning dvs. en kvantitativ bearbetning då resultatet redovisades med hjälp av frekvenser och värden på en skala. Datainsamlingsverktyget som användes var enkäter och utformades efter de tio faktorerna som sammanställdes i den teoretiska referensramen. Enkäterna delades ut till både kunder och handlare i Borlänges stadskärna och Faluns stadskärna. Resultatet av uppsatsen visade att det för faktorerna ljus (4,2), trängsel (4.5) (4.6), Ljud (4.7), toaletter (4.9), (4.10) finns en skillnad ett s.k. gap mellan handlarnas uppfattning om kundernas behov och vad kundernas behov egentligen är. Det framkom även att handlarna ansåg att kunderna har större behov av att faktorerna rent & städat (4.3), (4.4) in & utgångar (4.8) är tillfredsställande än vad kunderna egentligen har. Det framkom precis som behandlades i den teoretiska referensramen att kundernas behov tenderar att variera utifrån deras demografiska faktorer ålder och kön. Om handlarna har en låg, medel eller hög prisnivå påverkade även det hur viktigt det är för kunderna att faktorerna är tillfredsställande. Slutsatsen som författarna identifierade var att det föreligger ett gap mellan handlarnas uppfattning om kundernas behov och vad kunderna anser att deras behov är gällande flera av faktorerna. Detta är dock något som kunderna säger vilket inte behöver stämma överrens med hur de verkligen tycker. Det är dock svårt att urskilja något mönster gällande gapen utan det är nästan enbart tendenser man kan urskilja, vilket gör att varje faktor bör analyseras individuellt.

Consolidação de demonstrações financeiras elaboradas segundo o método da correção monetária integral: um estudo de sua elaboração

Este trabalho teve por objetivo verlficar a praticabilidade de aplicação simultinea das metodologias de "consolidação de demonstrações financeiras" e da "correção monetária integral" (Contabilidade a Nível Geral de Preços), através de um estudo de cunho exploratório. Para tanto, procedeu-se a uma revisão dos conceitos existentes na literatura nacional e estrangeira, enfatizando as principais normas e procedimentos instituídos no Brasil, com o objetivo de dar fundamentação teórica e justificar os limites e as contribuições de estudo. Neste sentido, foram elaborados quatro exemplos simulados, a partir de situações reais, com a aplicação de dois procedimentos possíveis quais sejam: Procedimento "A"; "Corrigir as demonstrações consolidadas"; e Procedimento "B"; "Consolidar as demonstrações já. corrigidas." Com base nos resultados obtidos foi possível fazer uma análise comparativa dos dois procedimentos e, ainda, chegar a importantes conclusões, além de ensejar algumas recomendações e sugestões para futuros trabalhos sobre o assunto estudado.

Uma contribuição ao estudo da influência da inflação na distribuição de sobras em uma cooperativa de produção: um estudo de caso

A presente pesquisa teve corno objetivo a análise das demonstrações contábeis de uma cooperativa de produção, após a aplicação dos métodos contábeis que reconhecem os efeitos da inflação sobre as mesmas, procurando definir qual a influência da flutuação de preços na distribuição das Sobras, após a aplicação dos referidos métodos . Na revisão da literatura foram abordados os métodos que reconhecem os efeitos inflacionários sobre as demonstrações contábeis, um breve histórico sobre a legislação que abrange a correçao monetária no Brasil e uma introdução à filosofia, princípios e características das Sociedades Cooperativas (cap.II). O presente estudo foi desenvolvido através do método de Estudo de Caso, em razão da carência de verificações empíricas na área do cooperativismo, e da necessidade de discriminação do método, coleta e tratamento dos dados (cap.III). A seguir, apresenta os resultados alcançados após a aplicação dos métodos do Custo Histórico Corrigido, do Custo Corrente Corrigido Parcial, com a aplicação da variação. mensal do IGP em ambos os métodos, além do método adotado pela legislação brasileira, sendo que este último efetuado com a aplicação do índice oficial no período em observação, isto é, a Obrigação Reajustável do Tesouro Nacional (ORTN) e a variação mensal do índice Geral de Preços (IGP) (cap.IV). Os resultados alcançados permitiram a análise dos mesmos (cap.V), chegando-se as conclusões e, finalmente sugeriu-se uma nova pesquisa na area do cooperativismo (cap. VI).

Análise dos resultados da aplicação da correção monetária integral pelas companhias abertas no Brasil em 1987: instrução CVM n. 64/87: um estudo exploratório

O principal objetivo, deste estudo é analisar as informações geradas pelos Métodos Legal e Integral de reconhecimento dos efeitos inflacionários nas Demonstrações Contábeis, evidenciando os aspectos qualitativo e quantitativo da informação contábil para fins de avaliação econômico-financeira e patrimonial das companhias abertas do Brasil. A pesquisa foi desenvolvida em uma amostra composta de 87 ( oitenta sete) Demonstrações Contábeis, com o tamanho calculado estatisticamente para atender aos aspectos de aleatoriedade e representatividade. Representando, assim, o universo de 664 (seiscentos sessenta quatro) companhias abertas inscritas na CVM - Comissão de Valores Mobiliários em 31.12.87. Esta pesquisa se diferencia das demais pelo tipo de amostra e universo estudados, uma vez que a aplicação da Contabilidade a Nível Geral de Preços pelas companhias abertas do Brasil é recente. Este método torna as informações contábeis mais realistas e potencialmente capazes de representar a real performance das empresas.

Os bancos comerciais sob o efeito da inflação: reflexo nas suas demonstrações contábeis: um estudo de caso

Este trabalho teve por objetivo mensurar os efeitos da variação do poder aquisitivo da moeda nas demonstrações contábeis das instituições bancárias. Através do estudo de caso, a pesquisa foi desenvolvida em um banco comercial público estadual, subdividida em duas fases distintas. Na primeira fase, os objetivos específicos da pesquisa foram analisar as distorções resultantes do cumprimento da disposição legal que veda a correção monetária dos resultados intermediários. Adotou-se o método em vigor incluindo a correção monetária do resultado intermediário, ajustando-o pela variação nominal da ORTN, no segundo semestre de cada ano. Na segunda fase, com a aplicação do método da Correção Integral, através de ajustamento mensal dos elementos patrimoniais, pela variação nominal do Índice Geral de Preços, obteve-se a análise dos resultados comparativamente, com os apresentados pelo Banco em suas demonstrações publicadas. Esta pesquisa se diferencia das demais existentes pela ênfase atribuída à correção monetária dos resultados intermediários, com reflexo na distribuição de dividendos, participações estatutárias, equivalência patrimonial e desempenho semestral de atividade. Outro ponto divergente é no aspecto da evidenciação apresentada pela Demonstração do Resultado Enfoque Gerencial , apurada pelo método da Correção Integral.