Uncertainty based Multi-Robot Cooperative Triangulation

The paper presents a multi-robot cooperative framework to estimate the 3D position of dynamic targets, based on bearing-only vision measurements. The uncertainty of the observation provided by each robot equipped with a bearing-only vision system is effectively addressed for cooperative triangulation purposes by weighing the contribution of each monocular bearing ray in a probabilistic manner. The envisioned framework is evaluated in an outdoor scenario with a team of heterogeneous robots composed of an Unmanned Ground and Aerial Vehicle.

Stackelberg duopoly with demand uncertainty

We consider a symmetric Stackelberg model in which there is asymmetric demand information owned by first and second movers. We analyse the advantages of leadership and flexibility, and prove that when the leading firm faces demand uncertainty, but the follower does not, the first mover does not necessarily have advantage over the second mover. Moreover, we show that the advantage of one firm over the other depends upon the demand fluctuation and also upon the degree of substitutability of the products.

Uncertainty on a Bertrand duopoly with product differentiation

The conclusions of the Bertrand model of competition are substantially altered by the presence of either differentiated goods or asymmetric information about rival’s production costs. In this paper, we consider a Bertrand competition, with differentiated goods. Furthermore, we suppose that each firm has two different technologies, and uses one of them according to a certain probability distribution. The use of either one or the other technology affects the unitary production cost. We show that this game has exactly one Bayesian Nash equilibrium. We do ex-ante and ex-post analyses of firms’ profits and market prices. We prove that the expected profit of each firm increases with the variance of its production costs. We also show that the expected price of each good increases with both expected production costs, being the effect of the expected production costs of the rival dominated by the effect of the own expected production costs.

Asymmetric dynamic price competition with uncertainty

We consider a dynamic setting-price duopoly model in which a dominant (leader) firm moves first and a subordinate (follower) firm moves second. We suppose that each firm has two different technologies, and uses one of them according to a certain probability distribution. The use of either one or the other technology affects the unitary production cost. We analyse the effect of the production costs uncertainty on the profits of the firms, for different values of the intercept demand parameters.

Hydrologic modeling and uncertainty analysis of an ungauged watershed using mapwindow-swat

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies

The effect of demand information sharing in a supply chain under demand uncertainty: a simulation study

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia e Gestão Industrial

The design and use of annual budgets to cope with uncertainty

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Uncertainty, generalization, and neural representation of relevant variables for decision making

Dissertation presented to obtain the Ph.D degree in Biology, Computational Biology.

UNCERTAINTY AND DECISION-MAKING IN THE HUMAN BRAIN

Dissertation presented to obtain the Ph.D degree in Biology, Neuroscience

Support in decision-making under uncertainty: a project risk assessment tool development and supplementary advances

A foremost dispute that persists on the contemporary world’s agenda is change. The on-going social/technological/economic changes create a competitive and challenging environment for companies to endure. To benefit from these changes, world economies partially depend on emerging Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) and their adaptability skills, and subsequently the development of an integrated capability to innovate has become the prime strategy for most of SMEs to subsist and grow. However, innovation and change are always somewhat bonded to an inherent risk development, which subsequently brings on the necessity of a revision of risk management approaches in innovative processes, whose importance SMEs tend to disregard. Additionally, little efforts have been made to improve and create empirical models, metrics and tools to assist SMEs managing latent risks in their innovative projects. This work seeks to present and discuss a solution to support SMEs in engaging on systematic risk management practices, which consists on an integrated risk assessment and response support web-based tool - Spotrisk® - designed for SMEs. On the other hand, an inherent subjectivity is linked with risk management and identification processes, due to uncertainty trait of its nature, for each individual perceives situations according to his own idiosyncrasy, which brings complications in normalizing risk profiles and procedures. This essay aims to bring insights concerning the support in decision-making processes under uncertainty, by addressing issues related with the risk behavior character among individuals. To address such issues, subjects of neuroscience or psychology are explored and models to identify such character are proposed, as well as models to improve presented tool. This work attempts to go beyond the restrictive aim of endeavoring on technical improvement dissertation, and in embraces an exploratory conceptualization concerning micro, small and medium businesses’ traits regarding risk characters and project risk assessment tools.

Uncertainty in olfactory decision-making

Relationships between accuracy and speed of decision-making, or speed-accuracy tradeoffs (SAT), have been extensively studied. However, the range of SAT observed varies widely across studies for reasons that are unclear. Several explanations have been proposed, including motivation or incentive for speed vs. accuracy, species and modality but none of these hypotheses has been directly tested. An alternative explanation is that the different degrees of SAT are related to the nature of the task being performed. Here, we addressed this problem by comparing SAT in two odor-guided decision tasks that were identical except for the nature of the task uncertainty: an odor mixture categorization task, where the distinguishing information is reduced by making the stimuli more similar to each other; and an odor identification task in which the information is reduced by lowering the intensity over a range of three log steps. (...)

Contribution of the evaluation strategy and the use of hearing protection for the uncertainty associated with occupational exposure to noise

Doctoral Thesis for PhD degree in Industrial and Systems Engineering

Jet energy measurement and its systematic uncertainty in proton-proton collisions at s√=7 TeV with the ATLAS detector

The jet energy scale (JES) and its systematic uncertainty are determined for jets measured with the ATLAS detector using proton–proton collision data with a centre-of-mass energy of s√=7 TeV corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 4.7 fb −1 . Jets are reconstructed from energy deposits forming topological clusters of calorimeter cells using the anti- kt algorithm with distance parameters R=0.4 or R=0.6 , and are calibrated using MC simulations. A residual JES correction is applied to account for differences between data and MC simulations. This correction and its systematic uncertainty are estimated using a combination of in situ techniques exploiting the transverse momentum balance between a jet and a reference object such as a photon or a Z boson, for 20≤pjetT<1000 GeV and pseudorapidities |η|<4.5 . The effect of multiple proton–proton interactions is corrected for, and an uncertainty is evaluated using in situ techniques. The smallest JES uncertainty of less than 1 % is found in the central calorimeter region ( |η|<1.2 ) for jets with 55≤pjetT<500 GeV . For central jets at lower pT , the uncertainty is about 3 %. A consistent JES estimate is found using measurements of the calorimeter response of single hadrons in proton–proton collisions and test-beam data, which also provide the estimate for pjetT>1 TeV. The calibration of forward jets is derived from dijet pT balance measurements. The resulting uncertainty reaches its largest value of 6 % for low- pT jets at |η|=4.5 . Additional JES uncertainties due to specific event topologies, such as close-by jets or selections of event samples with an enhanced content of jets originating from light quarks or gluons, are also discussed. The magnitude of these uncertainties depends on the event sample used in a given physics analysis, but typically amounts to 0.5–3 %.

Project management under uncertainty: a study on solution methods

Project Management involves onetime endeavors that demand for getting it right the first time. On the other hand, project scheduling, being one of the most modeled project management process stages, still faces a wide gap from theory to practice. Demanding computational models and their consequent call for simplification, divert the implementation of such models in project management tools from the actual day to day project management process. Special focus is being made to the robustness of the generated project schedules facing the omnipresence of uncertainty. An "easy" way out is to add, more or less cleverly calculated, time buffers that always result in project duration increase and correspondingly, in cost. A better approach to deal with uncertainty seems to be to explore slack that might be present in a given project schedule, a fortiori when a non-optimal schedule is used. The combination of such approach to recent advances in modeling resource allocation and scheduling techniques to cope with the increasing flexibility in resources, as can be expressed in "Flexible Resource Constraint Project Scheduling Problem" (FRCPSP) formulations, should be a promising line of research to generate more adequate project management tools. In reality, this approach has been frequently used, by project managers in an ad-hoc way.

Development of a methodology to incorporate risk and uncertainty in electricity power planning

Dissertação de mestrado em Engenharia Industrial