Capital Flows to Latin America and the Caribbean: 2014 Overview

Divergence in macro trends and in monetary policy in advanced economies was a dominant driver of rates and currencies in emerging markets in 2014. Diverging macroeconomic developments were reflected in different monetary policy actions in 2014, with the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) moving in the opposite direction of the U.S. Federal Reserve. The unwinding of the U.S. monetary stimulus, while the ECB and the BOJ step up their monetary stimulus, has underpinned an appreciation by the U.S. dollar, in which most commodities are priced. Latin American markets, which started the year under pressure from fears of the U.S. Federal Reserve tapering off its quantitative easing program and concerns over stability, ended 2014 under pressure from a stronger U.S. dollar. However, there are many signs that a slowdown in LAC financial markets – particularly debt markets, which have been breaking records in debt issuance for the past six years – is under way. The region’s growth prospects look somewhat brighter in 2015 relative to 2014, but a strengthening U.S. dollar, uneven global growth and weakness in commodity prices are skewing the risk toward the downside for the 2015 forecasts across the region.

Modo de vida na várzea: políticas sociais e nova ruralidade: estudo em uma localidade da Reserva de Desenvolvimento Sustentável Mamirauá

Esta dissertação é um estudo sobre as ações em torno do desenvolvimento sustentável e de políticas não agrícolas para as pequenas populações rurais, a partir dos anos 80 e 90. Com a interiorização das políticas, o Estado se torna mais presente nas regiões interioranas redimensionando o mundo rural e suas dinâmicas locais. Neste sentido, um novo rural emerge com as ações políticas que chegam às populações mais distantes expondo o modo de vida a novas situações. Este estudo objetivou analisar as mudanças na organização social e econômica dos moradores da localidade rural de Vila Alencar da Reserva de Desenvolvimento Sustentável Mamirauá (RDSM), no estado do Amazonas, decorrentes da criação de uma reserva de desenvolvimento sustentável (RDS) e das ações institucionalizadas por políticas de Estado. A análise teórica foi fundamentada na noção de habitus e do campo socioambiental da Reserva Mamirauá. Realizaram-se também análises entre as famílias a partir do tempo de união conjugal, com a finalidade de identificar as mudanças ocorridas entre duas gerações familiares. Constatou-se neste estudo que a organização familiar em Vila Alencar se desenvolve levando em consideração as práticas locais e também participam das ações intervencionistas através das políticas sociais por meio do Programa Bolsa Família, das aposentadorias rurais e das atividades em torno do manejo sustentável dos recursos naturais, que estão em sua maioria associadas ao manejo de ecoturismo, a exemplo, da prestação de serviços como guia turístico, auxiliar de cozinha, copeira e carpintaria para a pousada de ecoturismo da RDSM. A combinação de atividades agrícolas, nãoagrícolas e a complementação de renda por benefícios sociais assumem papel importante na composição da renda familiar, o que traz novas perspectivas à reprodução social. O estudo mostrou que as políticas de desenvolvimento sustentável bem como as políticas de benefícios sociais tornam favorável à organização familiar das localidades rurais as características de feições modernizadoras e atrativas do conforto urbano, sobretudo pela expectativa da compra de uma casa na cidade e de melhores condições de qualificação aos filhos para prosperarem em alguma profissão. Aos jovens são delegadas outras responsabilidades que não se inserem exclusivamente no contexto produtivo do trabalho familiar.

Política pública de alimentação e nutrição: o Programa Nacional de Alimentação Escolar (PNAE) e o Programa de Aquisição de Alimentos (PAA) em Araraquara-SP

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

As sombras das luzes e os pecados da escolástica

When we compare the policy actions taken in the reigns of Dom João V in the first half of the eighteenth century and Dom José I (assisted by Marquês de Pombal) in the third quarter of the same century, we can observe the transition from scholastic, first reign vision gradually paths to an economic -scientific bias, reflecting a position toward the lights. Three narratives were chosen demonstrate this movement by the relations established between them: O Caramuru, the conservative position, and O Uraguai and O Desertor, takes position in favor of Lights.

Trabalho e estresse: identificação do estresse e dos estressores ocupacionais em trabalhadores de uma unidade administrativa de uma instituição pública de ensino superior (IES)

The article presents survey of public servants of a Higher Education Institution (HEI) that aimed to diagnose the presence of stress in this population, the stress phase in which individuals find themselves and the prevalence of symptoms, whether physical or psychological. This study aimed to characterize the symptomatology of the population experiencing stress and major stressors of the work context where participants act. The survey revealed that 46.6% of the participants are experiencing stress, mostly found in the resistance phase with predominantly psychological symptoms. Among the major stressors of work contexts, stood the physical environment of the workplace, sector infrastructure work, the process of professional performance evaluation adopted by IES, low recognition given to the work done and the small number of servers in certain sectors . The results revealed the presence of stress advancement of this sample and the need for appropriate policy actions and management practices of people who aim to act to minimize this phenomenon.

Essays in Macroeconomics

The dissertation consists of four papers that aim at providing new contributions in the field of macroeconomics, monetary policy and financial stability. The first paper proposes a new Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model with credit frictions and a banking sector to study the pro-cyclicality of credit and the role of different prudential regulatory frameworks in affecting business cycle fluctuations and in restoring macroeconomic and financial stability. The second paper develops a simple DSGE model capable of evaluating the effects of large purchases of treasuries by central banks. This theoretical framework is employed to evaluate the impact on yields and the macroeconomy of large purchases of medium- and long-term government bonds recently implemented in the US and UK. The third paper studies the effects of ECB communications about unconventional monetary policy operations on the perceived sovereign risk of Italy over the last five years. The empirical results are derived from both an event-study analysis and a GARCH model, which uses Italian long-term bond futures to disentangle expected from unexpected policy actions. The fourth paper proposes a DSGE model with an endogenous term structure of interest rates, which is able to replicate the stylized facts regarding the yield curve and the term premium in the US over the period 1987:3-2011:3, without compromising its ability to match macro dynamics.

The Chinese Currency and Global Rebalancing: A Discussion

Perceived to be substantially undervalued, the Chinese currency, the yuan, has attracted much attention in recent years, especially since the recession of 2008-2009. To remedy the situation, a proposal put forward recently by C. Fred Bergsten is noteworthy, for its impressive boldness in calling for drastic US policy actions, and for the potentially far-reaching impacts on the global rebalancing and recovery it may bring about. The purpose of this article is twofold: to assess the underlying analytical validity of this proposal and to explore its implications for the US, China and the rebalancing and recovery of the world economy.

Does high speed rail compete fairly with other transportation modes? Madrid-Barcelona case study

Transportation modes produce many external costs such as congestion, accidents, and environmental impacts (pollution, noise and so on). From the microeconomic theory it is well known that in order to maximize social welfare, transportation modes should internalize the marginal costs they produce. Allocative efficiency is achieved when all transportation modes are priced at their social marginal cost. The objective of this research is to evaluate to what extent different passenger transport modes internalize their social marginal costs. This analysis is important since it affects the competitiveness of the different transport modes for a given OD pair. The case study analyzed is the corridor Madrid-Barcelona in Spain and the different transport modes have been considered (cars, buses, high-speed train and air). The research calculates the marginal social cost per user for each transportation mode, and it compares it with the average fare—allowing for the effect of discriminatory taxes—currently paid by the users. The external costs are calculated according to the guidelines established by the European Union. The gap between the marginal social cost and the price paid by users will provide the extra cost per passenger that each transport mode should have to pay for internalizing the external cost it produces. The research shows that external costs already produced by road and air transport modes are much higher than those produced by rail. However, the results show that road transport already internalizes every external costs it produces because users pay high fuel taxes. In other words, although rail transportation produces lower external costs, road transportation pays more than it should on the basis of the social marginal costs. The results of this work might be of help for Europ ean policy actions to be undertaken in the future.

Assessment methodology applied to demand measures to change urban mobility behavior

In order to minimize car-based trips, transport planners have been particularly interested in understanding the factors that explain modal choices. Transport modelling literature has been increasingly aware that socioeconomic attributes and quantitative variables are not sufficient to characterize travelers and forecast their travel behavior. Recent studies have also recognized that users’ social interactions and land use patterns influence travel behavior, especially when changes to transport systems are introduced; but links between international and Spanish perspectives are rarely dealt with. The overall objective of the thesis is to develop a stepped methodology that integrate diverse perspectives to evaluate the willingness to change patterns of urban mobility in Madrid, based on four steps: (1st) analysis of causal relationships between both objective and subjective personal variables, and travel behavior to capture pro-car and pro-public transport intentions; (2nd) exploring the potential influence of individual trip characteristics and social influence variables on transport mode choice; (3rd) identifying built environment dimensions on travel behavior; and (4th) exploring the potential influence on transport mode choice of extrinsic characteristics of individual trip using panel data, land use variables using spatial characteristics and social influence variables. The data used for this thesis have been collected from a two panel smartphone-based survey (n=255 and 190 respondents, respectively) carried out in Madrid. Although the steps above are mainly methodological, the application to the area of Madrid allows deriving important results that can be directly used to forecast travel demand and to evaluate the benefits of specific policies that might be implemented in the area. The results demonstrated, respectively: (1st) transport policy actions are more likely to be effective when pro-car intention has been disrupted first; (2nd) the consideration of “helped” and “voluntary” users as tested here could have a positive and negative impact, respectively, on the use of public transport; (3rd) the importance of density, design, diversity and accessibility underlying dimensions responsible for land use variables; and (4th) there are clearly different types of combinations of social interactions, land use and time frame on travel behavior studies. Finally, with the objective to study the impact of demand measures to change urban mobility behavior, those previous results have been considered in a unique way, a hybrid discrete choice model has been used on a 5th step. Then it can be concluded that urban mobility behavior is not only ruled by the maximum utility criterion, but also by a strong psychological-environment concept, developed without the mediation of cognitive processes during choice, i.e., many people using public transport on their way to work do not do it for utilitarian reasons, but because no other choice is available. Regarding built environment dimensions, the more diversity place of residence, the more difficult the use of public transport or walking.

Uso do zoneamento ambiental do Médio Rio Grande como instrumento de gestão no município de Delfinópolis-MG

Este trabalho faz parte do Projeto Grande Minas - União Pelas Águas, que realizou o Zoneamento Ambiental das Sub-Bacias Hidrográficas dos Afluentes Mineiros do Médio Rio Grande. O zoneamento foi concluído em 2013 e produziu importantes informações sobre os meios físico, biótico e socioeconômico dos 22 municípios que compõem a bacia hidrográfica, dentre eles o local de estudo, que é o município de Delfinópolis - MG. Dentre os instrumentos que podem contribuir para o desenvolvimento sustentável, o município pode utilizar, além do zoneamento ambiental, o plano diretor municipal e o plano de manejo do Parque Nacional da Serra da Canastra, uma vez que esta unidade de conservação insere-se no município. Torna-se importante, entretanto, a integração destes três importantes instrumentos de gestão para que o planejamento municipal e as ações de política pública possam ser realizados de forma consistente. Este trabalho vem contribuir na avaliação e integração destas informações (Plano Diretor Municipal, Plano de Manejo, Zoneamento Ambiental) e os resultados deverão contribuir com os administradores públicos na tomada de decisões e na resolução dos problemas enfrentados na região, como exemplo as queimadas, o uso inadequado dos recursos hídricos, as atividades modificadoras do meio físico. A sistemática metodológica adotada envolveu a avaliação de dados existentes e a construção de um banco de dados digital do município; análise dos instrumentos legais de planejamento e gestão municipal e elaboração de produtos cartográficos interpretativos de fácil leitura e entendimento que possam ser utilizados diretamente pelos gestores públicos. A análise e avaliação dos dados existentes permitiu diagnosticar algumas características peculiares ao município, como a sua vocação para o turismo, com mais de 40 atrativos ligados ao ecoturismo; o grande número de minerações de areia e cascalho, grande parte delas não regularizada; e os conflitos locais existentes diante das atividades da economia rural e a necessidade de preservação impostas pela unidade de conservação.

More Union in European Defence. CEPS Task Force Report, 26 February 2015

Years of uncoordinated cuts in defence spending have eroded the EU’s role as a security actor in what is now a multipolar world. This CEPS Task Force report aims to provide member states and the EU institutions with the narrative to strengthen defence cooperation in the EU, in the face of numerous emergencies in the EU’s strategic neighbourhood and ever-present security threats. The report is a record of the deliberations over several months between high-level experts in the field of European security and defence, who conclude that the Treaty of Lisbon demands and permits a great deal more in terms of our common security and defence activities. And that member states could achieve much more value for money than the €190 billion that they spend to keep up 28 national armies, comprising roughly 1.5 million service personnel. This report suggests policy actions to further the EU’s strategic, institutional, capabilities, and resources cooperation in the field of defence. Ultimately, in the view of the Task Force experts, further integration should amount to a European Defence Union.

Improving Illinois' educator workforce : a report to the Illinois General Assembly /

Summary: This report provides background and data delineating the problems Illinois is facing regarding the supply and quality of educators in our schools. The report recommends legislative and policy actions regarding educator recruitment, preparation, retention, and continuing professional development.

Regional responses to recession:the role of the West Midlands regional taskforce

Bailey D. and Berkeley N. Regional responses to recession: the role of the West Midlands Regional Taskforce, Regional Studies. Regional taskforces were set up across the English regions in late 2008 in response to the most severe recession since the Second World War. This paper examines the role of one such body, the West Midlands Regional Taskforce, as an example of regional response to recession, and offers potential lessons for the future in dealing with such situations. In so doing it reflects on the contested concept of regional 'resilience' and its relevance for policy actions at the regional level. Understanding how the region responded in this way could help in maintaining a 'permanent capacity' to deal with shocks, especially in the context of the abolition of regional development agencies (RDAs) in England from 2012 and their replacement with local enterprise partnerships (LEPs). © 2014 © 2014 The Author(s). Published by Taylor & Francis.

The Euro Area's Tightrope Walk: Debt and Competitiveness in Italy and Spain

- Competitiveness adjustment in struggling southern euro-area members requires persistently lower inflation than in major trading partners, but low inflation worsens public debt sustainability. When average euro-area inflation undershoots the two percent target, the conflict between intra-euro relative price adjustment and debt sustainability is more severe. - In our baseline scenario, the projected public debt ratio reduction in Italy and Spain is too slow and does not meet the European fiscal rule. Debt projections are very sensitive to underlying assumptions and even small negative deviations from GDP growth, inflation and budget surplus assumptions can easily result in a runaway debt trajectory. - The case for a greater than five percent of GDP primary budget surplus is very weak. Beyond vitally important structural reforms, the top priority is to ensure that euro-area inflation does not undershoot the two percent target, which requires national policy actions and more accommodative monetary policy. The latter would weaken the euro exchange rate, thereby facilitating further intra-euro adjustment. More effective policies are needed to foster growth. But if all else fails, the European Central Bank’s Outright Monetary Transactions could reduce borrowing costs.

New Public Management: The Story Continues

New Public Management (NPM) has aroused significant interest amongst academe, policy makers and practitioners, since its first articulation in the seminal articles by Hood (1991 and 1995). However, in the 21st century, a body of opinion has developed which asserts that the NPM is passé. This paper seeks to determine the contemporary status of NPM in the context of the UK, one of the early adopters of NPM. Close inspection of UK Government policy underlines the importance of NPM ideas in the New Labour Government modernisation policy (1997-2010). Furthermore, the policy actions of the 2010–2015 UK Coalition Government reveal that the global financial crisis intensified the drive for NPM in the UK’s public sector. This discussion reveals no evidence in support of the demise of NPM.