Static analysis of infinite laminated cylindrical shell panel

This paper presents an approximate three-dimensional elasticity solution for an infinitely long, cross-ply laminated circular cylindrical shell panel with simply supported boundary conditions, subjected to an arbitrary discontinuous transverse loading. The solution is based on the principal assumption that the ratio of the thickness of the lamina to its middle surface radius is negligible compared to unity. The validity of this assumption and the range of application of this approximate solution have been established through a comparison with an exact solution. Results of classical and first-order shear deformation shell theories have been compared with the results of the present solution to bring out the accuracy of these theories. It is also shown that for very shallow shell panels the definition of a thin shell should be based on the ratio of thickness to chord width rather than the ratio of thickness to mean radius.

Information panel at the Old Jewish Cemetery; Oberstrasse, Hannover Cemeteries Tombs

Digital Image

Information panel at the Old Jewish Cemetery; Oberstrasse, Hannover Cemeteries Tombs

Digital Image

Career patterns: A twenty-year panel study

Using 20 years of employment and job mobility data from a representative German sample (N = 1259), we employ optimal matching analysis (OMA) to identify six career patterns which deviate from the traditional career path of long-term, full-time employment in one organization. Then, in further analyses, we examine which socio-demographic predictors affect whether or not individuals follow that traditional career path. Results indicate that age, gender, marital status, number of children, education, and career starts in the public sector significantly predicted whether or not individuals followed the traditional career path. The article concludes with directions for future theoretical and methodological research on career patterns.

Panel of real-time PCRs for the multiplexed detection of two tomato-infecting begomoviruses and their cognate whitefly vector species

A new approach for the simultaneous identification of the viruses and vectors responsible for tomato yellow leaf curl disease (TYLCD) epidemics is presented. A panel of quantitative multiplexed real-time PCR assays was developed for the sensitive and reliable detection of Tomato yellow leaf curl virus-Israel (TYLCV-IL), Tomato leaf curl virus (ToLCV), Bemisia tabaci Middle East Asia Minor 1 species (MEAM1, B biotype) and B.tabaci Mediterranean species (MED, Q biotype) from either plant or whitefly samples. For quality-assurance purposes, two internal control assays were included in the assay panel for the co-amplification of solanaceous plant DNA or B.tabaci DNA. All assays were shown to be specific and reproducible. The multiplexed assays were able to reliably detect as few as 10 plasmid copies of TYLCV-IL, 100 plasmid copies of ToLCV, 500fg B.tabaci MEAM1 and 300fg B.tabaci MED DNA. Evaluated methods for routine testing of field-collected whiteflies are presented, including protocols for processing B.tabaci captured on yellow sticky traps and for bulking of multiple B.tabaci individuals prior to DNA extraction. This work assembles all of the essential features of a validated and quality-assured diagnostic method for the identification and discrimination of tomato-infecting begomovirus and B.tabaci vector species in Australia. This flexible panel of assays will facilitate improved quarantine, biosecurity and disease-management programmes both in Australia and worldwide.

Cointegration and causal relationships between energy consumption and output: Assessing the evidence from Australia

In this paper, we describe our investigation of the cointegration and causal relationships between energy consumption and economic output in Australia over a period of five decades. The framework used in this paper is the single-sector aggregate production function, which is the first comprehensive approach used in an Australian study of this type to include energy, capital and labour as separate inputs of production. The empirical evidence points to a cointegration relationship between energy and output and implies that energy is an important variable in the cointegration space, as are conventional inputs capital and labour. We also find some evidence of bidirectional causality between GDP and energy use. Although the evidence of causality from energy use to GDP was relatively weak when using the thermal aggregate of energy use, once energy consumption was adjusted for energy quality, we found strong evidence of Granger causality from energy use to GDP in Australia over the investigated period. The results are robust, irrespective of the assumptions of linear trends in the cointegration models, and are applicable for different econometric approaches.

Building a flexible, voluntary donation panel: An exploration of donor willingness

BACKGROUND As blood collection agencies (BCAs) face recurrent shortages of varying blood products, developing a panel comprising donors who are flexible in the product they donate based on same-time inventory demand could be an efficient, cost-effective inventory management strategy. Accounting for prior whole blood (WB) and plasmapheresis donation experience, this article explores current donors’ willingness to change their donation product and identifies the type of information required for such donation flexibility. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS Telephone interviews (mean, 34 min; SD, 11 min) were conducted with 60 donors recruited via stratified purposive sampling representing six donor groups: no plasma, new to both WB and plasma, new to plasma, plasma, flexible (i.e., alternating between WB and plasma), and maximum (i.e., high frequency alternating between WB and plasma) donors. Participants responded to hypothetical scenarios and open-ended questions relating to their and other donors’ willingness to be flexible. Responses were transcribed and content was analyzed. RESULTS The most frequently endorsed categories varied between donor groups with more prominent differences emerging between the information and support that donors desired for themselves versus that for others. Most donors were willing to change donations but sought improved donation logistics and information regarding inventory levels to encourage flexibility. The factors perceived to facilitate the flexibility of other donors included providing donor-specific information and information regarding different donation types. CONCLUSION Regardless of donation history, donors are willing to be flexible with their donations. To foster a flexible donor panel, BCAs should continue to streamline the donation process and provide information relevant to donors’ experience.

A Cointegration Approach to Topics in Empirical Macroeconomics (summary section only)

Mikael Juselius’ doctoral dissertation covers a range of significant issues in modern macroeconomics by empirically testing a number of important theoretical hypotheses. The first essay presents indirect evidence within the framework of the cointegrated VAR model on the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor by using Finnish manufacturing data. Instead of estimating the elasticity of substitution by using the first order conditions, he develops a new approach that utilizes a CES production function in a model with a 3-stage decision process: investment in the long run, wage bargaining in the medium run and price and employment decisions in the short run. He estimates the elasticity of substitution to be below one. The second essay tests the restrictions implied by the core equations of the New Keynesian Model (NKM) in a vector autoregressive model (VAR) by using both Euro area and U.S. data. Both the new Keynesian Phillips curve and the aggregate demand curve are estimated and tested. The restrictions implied by the core equations of the NKM are rejected on both U.S. and Euro area data. These results are important for further research. The third essay is methodologically similar to essay 2, but it concentrates on Finnish macro data by adopting a theoretical framework of an open economy. Juselius’ results suggests that the open economy NKM framework is too stylized to provide an adequate explanation for Finnish inflation. The final essay provides a macroeconometric model of Finnish inflation and associated explanatory variables and it estimates the relative importance of different inflation theories. His main finding is that Finnish inflation is primarily determined by excess demand in the product market and by changes in the long-term interest rate. This study is part of the research agenda carried out by the Research Unit of Economic Structure and Growth (RUESG). The aim of RUESG it to conduct theoretical and empirical research with respect to important issues in industrial economics, real option theory, game theory, organization theory, theory of financial systems as well as to study problems in labor markets, macroeconomics, natural resources, taxation and time series econometrics. RUESG was established at the beginning of 1995 and is one of the National Centers of Excellence in research selected by the Academy of Finland. It is financed jointly by the Academy of Finland, the University of Helsinki, the Yrjö Jahnsson Foundation, Bank of Finland and the Nokia Group. This support is gratefully acknowledged.

Modelling and Forecasting Property Rents and Returns (summary section only)

Recently, focus of real estate investment has expanded from the building-specific level to the aggregate portfolio level. The portfolio perspective requires investment analysis for real estate which is comparable with that of other asset classes, such as stocks and bonds. Thus, despite its distinctive features, such as heterogeneity, high unit value, illiquidity and the use of valuations to measure performance, real estate should not be considered in isolation. This means that techniques which are widely used for other assets classes can also be applied to real estate. An important part of investment strategies which support decisions on multi-asset portfolios is identifying the fundamentals of movements in property rents and returns, and predicting them on the basis of these fundamentals. The main objective of this thesis is to find the key drivers and the best methods for modelling and forecasting property rents and returns in markets which have experienced structural changes. The Finnish property market, which is a small European market with structural changes and limited property data, is used as a case study. The findings in the thesis show that is it possible to use modern econometric tools for modelling and forecasting property markets. The thesis consists of an introduction part and four essays. Essays 1 and 3 model Helsinki office rents and returns, and assess the suitability of alternative techniques for forecasting these series. Simple time series techniques are able to account for structural changes in the way markets operate, and thus provide the best forecasting tool. Theory-based econometric models, in particular error correction models, which are constrained by long-run information, are better for explaining past movements in rents and returns than for predicting their future movements. Essay 2 proceeds by examining the key drivers of rent movements for several property types in a number of Finnish property markets. The essay shows that commercial rents in local markets can be modelled using national macroeconomic variables and a panel approach. Finally, Essay 4 investigates whether forecasting models can be improved by accounting for asymmetric responses of office returns to the business cycle. The essay finds that the forecast performance of time series models can be improved by introducing asymmetries, and the improvement is sufficient to justify the extra computational time and effort associated with the application of these techniques.

Inference on Cointegration in Vector Autoregressive Models (summary section only)

In the thesis we consider inference for cointegration in vector autoregressive (VAR) models. The thesis consists of an introduction and four papers. The first paper proposes a new test for cointegration in VAR models that is directly based on the eigenvalues of the least squares (LS) estimate of the autoregressive matrix. In the second paper we compare a small sample correction for the likelihood ratio (LR) test of cointegrating rank and the bootstrap. The simulation experiments show that the bootstrap works very well in practice and dominates the correction factor. The tests are applied to international stock prices data, and the .nite sample performance of the tests are investigated by simulating the data. The third paper studies the demand for money in Sweden 1970—2000 using the I(2) model. In the fourth paper we re-examine the evidence of cointegration between international stock prices. The paper shows that some of the previous empirical results can be explained by the small-sample bias and size distortion of Johansen’s LR tests for cointegration. In all papers we work with two data sets. The first data set is a Swedish money demand data set with observations on the money stock, the consumer price index, gross domestic product (GDP), the short-term interest rate and the long-term interest rate. The data are quarterly and the sample period is 1970(1)—2000(1). The second data set consists of month-end stock market index observations for Finland, France, Germany, Sweden, the United Kingdom and the United States from 1980(1) to 1997(2). Both data sets are typical of the sample sizes encountered in economic data, and the applications illustrate the usefulness of the models and tests discussed in the thesis.

Bootstrap and Fast Double Bootstrap Tests of Cointegration Rank with Financial Time Series

The likelihood ratio test of cointegration rank is the most widely used test for cointegration. Many studies have shown that its finite sample distribution is not well approximated by the limiting distribution. The article introduces and evaluates by Monte Carlo simulation experiments bootstrap and fast double bootstrap (FDB) algorithms for the likelihood ratio test. It finds that the performance of the bootstrap test is very good. The more sophisticated FDB produces a further improvement in cases where the performance of the asymptotic test is very unsatisfactory and the ordinary bootstrap does not work as well as it might. Furthermore, the Monte Carlo simulations provide a number of guidelines on when the bootstrap and FDB tests can be expected to work well. Finally, the tests are applied to US interest rates and international stock prices series. It is found that the asymptotic test tends to overestimate the cointegration rank, while the bootstrap and FDB tests choose the correct cointegration rank.