An in-depth analysis of the HIV-1/AIDS dynamics by comprehensive mathematical modeling

This work presents major results from a novel dynamic model intended to deterministically represent the complex relation between HIV-1 and the human immune system. The novel structure of the model extends previous work by representing different host anatomic compartments under a more in-depth cellular and molecular immunological phenomenology. Recently identified mechanisms related to HIV-1 infection as well as other well known relevant mechanisms typically ignored in mathematical models of HIV-1 pathogenesis and immunology, such as cell-cell transmission, are also addressed. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Can an immune-regulatory vaccine prevent HIV infection?

Developing vaccines to prevent the establishment of HIV infection has been fraught with difficulties. It might therefore be important to consider other new strategies. Since several studies suggest that anti-inflammatory stimuli can protect from HIV infection and because HIV replicates preferably in activated T cells, we suggest here that the reduction of immune activation through a HIV-specific regulatory T-cell vaccine might thwart early viral replication. Thus, because immune activation is a good predictor of disease progression and the immune activation set point has been shown to be an early event during HIV infection, vaccinating to achieve control of early virus-specific immune activation might be advantageous.

Comparison of two laboratory-developed PCR methods for the diagnosis of Pulmonary Tuberculosis in Brazilian patients with and without HIV infection

Abstract Background Direct smear examination with Ziehl-Neelsen (ZN) staining for the diagnosis of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) is cheap and easy to use, but its low sensitivity is a major drawback, particularly in HIV seropositive patients. As such, new tools for laboratory diagnosis are urgently needed to improve the case detection rate, especially in regions with a high prevalence of TB and HIV. Objective To evaluate the performance of two in house PCR (Polymerase Chain Reaction): PCR dot-blot methodology (PCR dot-blot) and PCR agarose gel electrophoresis (PCR-AG) for the diagnosis of Pulmonary Tuberculosis (PTB) in HIV seropositive and HIV seronegative patients. Methods A prospective study was conducted (from May 2003 to May 2004) in a TB/HIV reference hospital. Sputum specimens from 277 PTB suspects were tested by Acid Fast Bacilli (AFB) smear, Culture and in house PCR assays (PCR dot-blot and PCR-AG) and their performances evaluated. Positive cultures combined with the definition of clinical pulmonary TB were employed as the gold standard. Results The overall prevalence of PTB was 46% (128/277); in HIV+, prevalence was 54.0% (40/74). The sensitivity and specificity of PCR dot-blot were 74% (CI 95%; 66.1%-81.2%) and 85% (CI 95%; 78.8%-90.3%); and of PCR-AG were 43% (CI 95%; 34.5%-51.6%) and 76% (CI 95%; 69.2%-82.8%), respectively. For HIV seropositive and HIV seronegative samples, sensitivities of PCR dot-blot (72% vs 75%; p = 0.46) and PCR-AG (42% vs 43%; p = 0.54) were similar. Among HIV seronegative patients and PTB suspects, ROC analysis presented the following values for the AFB smear (0.837), Culture (0.926), PCR dot-blot (0.801) and PCR-AG (0.599). In HIV seropositive patients, these area values were (0.713), (0.900), (0.789) and (0.595), respectively. Conclusion Results of this study demonstrate that the in house PCR dot blot may be an improvement for ruling out PTB diagnosis in PTB suspects assisted at hospitals with a high prevalence of TB/HIV.

Biomarkers and Bacterial Pneumonia Risk in Patients with Treated HIV Infection: A Case-Control Study

Background: Despite advances in HIV treatment, bacterial pneumonia continues to cause considerable morbidity and mortality in patients with HIV infection. Studies of biomarker associations with bacterial pneumonia risk in treated HIVinfected patients do not currently exist. Methods: We performed a nested, matched, case-control study among participants randomized to continuous combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) in the Strategies for Management of Antiretroviral Therapy trial. Patients who developed bacterial pneumonia (cases) and patients without bacterial pneumonia (controls) were matched 1:1 on clinical center, smoking status, age, and baseline cART use. Baseline levels of Club Cell Secretory Protein 16 (CC16), Surfactant Protein D (SP-D), C-reactive protein (hsCRP), interleukin-6 (IL-6), and d-dimer were compared between cases and controls. Results: Cases (n = 72) and controls (n = 72) were 25.7% female, 51.4% black, 65.3% current smokers, 9.7% diabetic, 36.1% co-infected with Hepatitis B/C, and 75.0% were on cART at baseline. Median (IQR) age was 45 (41, 51) years with CD4+ count of 553 (436, 690) cells/mm3. Baseline CC16 and SP-D were similar between cases and controls, but hsCRP was significantly higher in cases than controls (2.94 mg/mL in cases vs. 1.93 mg/mL in controls; p = 0.02). IL-6 and d-dimer levels were also higher in cases compared to controls, though differences were not statistically significant (p-value 0.06 and 0.10, respectively). Conclusions: In patients with cART-treated HIV infection, higher levels of systemic inflammatory markers were associated with increased bacterial pneumonia risk, while two pulmonary-specific inflammatory biomarkers, CC16 and SP-D, were not associated with bacterial pneumonia risk.

Immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome in patients starting antiretroviral therapy for HIV infection: a systematic review and meta-analysis

In patients with HIV-1 infection who are starting combination antiretroviral therapy (ART), the incidence of immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome (IRIS) is not well defined. We did a meta-analysis to establish the incidence and lethality of the syndrome in patients with a range of previously diagnosed opportunistic infections, and examined the relation between occurrence and the degree of immunodeficiency. Systematic review identified 54 cohort studies of 13 103 patients starting ART, of whom 1699 developed IRIS. We calculated pooled cumulative incidences with 95% credibility intervals (CrI) by Bayesian methods and did a random-effects metaregression to analyse the relation between CD4 cell count and incidence of IRIS. In patients with previously diagnosed AIDS-defining illnesses, IRIS developed in 37.7% (95% CrI 26.6-49.4) of those with cytomegalovirus retinitis, 19.5% (6.7-44.8) of those with cryptococcal meningitis, 15.7% (9.7-24.5) of those with tuberculosis, 16.7% (2.3-50.7) of those with progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy, and 6.4% (1.2-24.7) of those with Kaposi's sarcoma, and 12.2% (6.8-19.6) of those with herpes zoster. 16.1% (11.1-22.9) of unselected patients starting ART developed any type of IRIS. 4.5% (2.1-8.6) of patients with any type of IRIS died, 3.2% (0.7-9.2) of those with tuberculosis-associated IRIS died, and 20.8% (5.0-52.7) of those with cryptococcal meningitis died. Metaregression analyses showed that the risk of IRIS is associated with CD4 cell count at the start of ART, with a high risk in patients with fewer than 50 cells per microL. Occurrence of IRIS might therefore be reduced by initiation of ART before immunodeficiency becomes advanced.

Mycobacterium tuberculosis transmission in a country with low tuberculosis incidence: role of immigration and HIV infection

Immigrants from high-burden countries and HIV-coinfected individuals are risk groups for tuberculosis (TB) in countries with low TB incidence. Therefore, we studied their role in transmission of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in Switzerland. We included all TB patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort and a sample of patients from the national TB registry. We identified molecular clusters by spoligotyping and mycobacterial interspersed repetitive-unit-variable-number tandem-repeat (MIRU-VNTR) analysis and used weighted logistic regression adjusted for age and sex to identify risk factors for clustering, taking sampling proportions into account. In total, we analyzed 520 TB cases diagnosed between 2000 and 2008; 401 were foreign born, and 113 were HIV coinfected. The Euro-American M. tuberculosis lineage dominated throughout the study period (378 strains; 72.7%), with no evidence for another lineage, such as the Beijing genotype, emerging. We identified 35 molecular clusters with 90 patients, indicating recent transmission; 31 clusters involved foreign-born patients, and 15 involved HIV-infected patients. Birth origin was not associated with clustering (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.58; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.73 to 3.43; P = 0.25, comparing Swiss-born with foreign-born patients), but clustering was reduced in HIV-infected patients (aOR, 0.49; 95% CI, 0.26 to 0.93; P = 0.030). Cavitary disease, male sex, and younger age were all associated with molecular clustering. In conclusion, most TB patients in Switzerland were foreign born, but transmission of M. tuberculosis was not more common among immigrants and was reduced in HIV-infected patients followed up in the national HIV cohort study. Continued access to health services and clinical follow-up will be essential to control TB in this population.

Resurgence of HIV infection among men who have sex with men in Switzerland: mathematical modelling study

Background New HIV infections in men who have sex with men (MSM) have increased in Switzerland since 2000 despite combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). The objectives of this mathematical modelling study were: to describe the dynamics of the HIV epidemic in MSM in Switzerland using national data; to explore the effects of hypothetical prevention scenarios; and to conduct a multivariate sensitivity analysis. Methodology/Principal Findings The model describes HIV transmission, progression and the effects of cART using differential equations. The model was fitted to Swiss HIV and AIDS surveillance data and twelve unknown parameters were estimated. Predicted numbers of diagnosed HIV infections and AIDS cases fitted the observed data well. By the end of 2010, an estimated 13.5% (95% CI 12.5, 14.6%) of all HIV-infected MSM were undiagnosed and accounted for 81.8% (95% CI 81.1, 82.4%) of new HIV infections. The transmission rate was at its lowest from 1995–1999, with a nadir of 46 incident HIV infections in 1999, but increased from 2000. The estimated number of new infections continued to increase to more than 250 in 2010, although the reproduction number was still below the epidemic threshold. Prevention scenarios included temporary reductions in risk behaviour, annual test and treat, and reduction in risk behaviour to levels observed earlier in the epidemic. These led to predicted reductions in new infections from 2 to 26% by 2020. Parameters related to disease progression and relative infectiousness at different HIV stages had the greatest influence on estimates of the net transmission rate. Conclusions/Significance The model outputs suggest that the increase in HIV transmission amongst MSM in Switzerland is the result of continuing risky sexual behaviour, particularly by those unaware of their infection status. Long term reductions in the incidence of HIV infection in MSM in Switzerland will require increased and sustained uptake of effective interventions.

HIV infection among ethnic minority and migrant men who have sex with men in Britain

To examine human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection among men who have sex with men (MSM) from different ethnic and migrant groups living in Britain.

Early and nonreversible decrease of CD161++ /MAIT cells in HIV infection

HIV infection is associated with immune dysfunction, perturbation of immune-cell subsets and opportunistic infections. CD161++ CD8+ T cells are a tissue-infiltrating population that produce IL17A, IL22, IFN, and TNFα, cytokines important in mucosal immunity. In adults they dominantly express the semi-invariant TCR Vα7.2, the canonical feature of mucosal associated invariant T (MAIT) cells and have been recently implicated in host defense against pathogens. We analyzed the frequency and function of CD161++ /MAIT cells in peripheral blood and tissue from patients with early stage or chronic-stage HIV infection. We show that the CD161++ /MAIT cell population is significantly decreased in early HIV infection and fails to recover despite otherwise successful treatment. We provide evidence that CD161++ /MAIT cells are not preferentially infected but may be depleted through diverse mechanisms including accumulation in tissues and activation-induced cell death. This loss may impact mucosal defense and could be important in susceptibility to specific opportunistic infections in HIV.

Unhealthy alcohol use, HIV infection and risk of liver fibrosis in drug users with hepatitis C

Aim To analyze alcohol use, clinical data and laboratory parameters that may affect FIB-4, an index for measuring liver fibrosis, in HCV-monoinfected and HCV/HIV-coinfected drug users. Patients and Methods Patients admitted for substance abuse treatment between 1994 and 2006 were studied. Socio-demographic data, alcohol and drug use characteristics and clinical variables were obtained through hospital records. Blood samples for biochemistry, liver function tests, CD4 cell count, and serology of HIV and HCV infection were collected at admission. Multivariate linear regression was used to analyze the predictors of FIB-4 increase. Results A total of 472 (83% M, 17% F) patients were eligible. The median age at admission was 31 years (Interquartile range (IQR) 27–35 years), and the median duration of drug use was 10 years (IQR 5.5–15 years). Unhealthy drinking (>50 grams/day) was reported in 32% of the patients. The FIB-4 scores were significantly greater in the HCV/HIV-coinfected patients (1.14, IQR 0.76–1.87) than in the HCV-monoinfected patients (0.75, IQR 0.56–1.11) (p<0.001). In the multivariate analysis, unhealthy drinking (p = 0.034), lower total cholesterol (p = 0.042), serum albumin (p<0.001), higher GGT (p<0.001) and a longer duration of addiction (p = 0.005) were independently associated with higher FIB-4 scores in the HCV-monoinfected drug users. The effect of unhealthy drinking on FIB-4 scores disappeared in the HCV/HIV-coinfected patients, whereas lower serum albumin (p<0.001), a lower CD4 cell count (p = 0.006), higher total bilirubin (p<0.001) and a longer drug addiction duration (p<0.001) were significantly associated with higher FIB-4 values. Conclusions Unhealthy alcohol use in the HCV-monoinfected patients and HIV-related immunodeficiency in the HCV/HIV-coinfected patients are important risk factors associated with liver fibrosis in the respective populations.

Disseminated and sustained HIV infection in CD34+ cord blood cell-transplanted Rag2-/-gamma c-/- mice

Because of species selectivity, HIV research is largely restricted to in vitro or clinical studies, both limited in their ability to rapidly assess new strategies to fight the virus. To prospectively study some aspects of HIV in vivo, immunodeficient mice, transplanted with either human peripheral blood leukocytes or human fetal tissues, have been developed. Although these are susceptible to HIV infection, xenoreactivity, and short infection spans, resource and ethical constraints, as well as biased HIV coreceptor tropic strain infection, pose substantial problems in their use. Rag2(-/-)gamma(c)(-/-) mice, transplanted as newborns with human CD34(+) cells, were recently shown to develop human B, T, and dendritic cells, constituting lymphoid organs in situ. Here we tested these mice as a model system for HIV-1 infection. HIV RNA levels peaked to up to 2 x 10(6) copies per milliliter of plasma early after infection, and viremia was observed for up to 190 days, the longest time followed. A marked relative CD4(+) T cell depletion in peripheral blood occurred in CXCR4-tropic strain-infected mice, whereas this was less pronounced in CCR5-tropic strain-infected animals. Thymus infection was almost exclusively observed in CXCR4-tropic strain-infected mice, whereas spleen and lymph node HIV infection occurred irrespective of coreceptor selectivity, consistent with respective coreceptor expression on human CD4(+) T cells. Thus, this straightforward to generate and cost-effective in vivo model closely resembles HIV infection in man and therefore should be valuable to study virus-induced pathology and to rapidly evaluate new approaches aiming to prevent or treat HIV infection.

Delayed diagnosis of HIV infection and late initiation of antiretroviral therapy in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study

OBJECTIVES: To investigate delayed HIV diagnosis and late initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. METHODS: Two sub-populations were included: 1915 patients with HIV diagnosis from 1998 to 2007 and within 3 months of cohort registration (group A), and 1730 treatment-naïve patients with CD4>or=200 cells/microL before their second cohort visit (group B). In group A, predictors for low initial CD4 cell counts were examined with a median regression. In group B, we studied predictors for CD4<200 cells/microL without ART despite cohort follow-up. RESULTS: Median initial CD4 cell count in group A was 331 cells/microL; 31% and 10% were <200 and <50 cells/microL, respectively. Risk factors for low CD4 count were age and non-White race. Homosexual transmission, intravenous drug use and living alone were protective. In group B, 30% initiated ART with CD4>or=200 cells/microL; 18% and 2% dropped to CD4 <200 and <50 cells/microL without ART, respectively. Sub-Saharan origin was associated with lower probability of CD4 <200 cells/microL without ART during follow-up. Median CD4 count at ART initiation was 207 and 253 cells/microL in groups A and B, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: CD4<200 cells/microL and, particularly, CD4<50 cells/microL before starting ART are predominantly caused by late presentation. Earlier HIV diagnosis is paramount.

CD4(+) T cell count decreases by ethnicity among untreated patients with HIV infection in South Africa and Switzerland

BACKGROUND: Estimates of the decrease in CD4(+) cell counts in untreated patients with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection are important for patient care and public health. We analyzed CD4(+) cell count decreases in the Cape Town AIDS Cohort and the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. METHODS: We used mixed-effects models and joint models that allowed for the correlation between CD4(+) cell count decreases and survival and stratified analyses by the initial cell count (50-199, 200-349, 350-499, and 500-750 cells/microL). Results are presented as the mean decrease in CD4(+) cell count with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) during the first year after the initial CD4(+) cell count. RESULTS: A total of 784 South African (629 nonwhite) and 2030 Swiss (218 nonwhite) patients with HIV infection contributed 13,388 CD4(+) cell counts. Decreases in CD4(+) cell count were steeper in white patients, patients with higher initial CD4(+) cell counts, and older patients. Decreases ranged from a mean of 38 cells/microL (95% CI, 24-54 cells/microL) in nonwhite patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study 15-39 years of age with an initial CD4(+) cell count of 200-349 cells/microL to a mean of 210 cells/microL (95% CI, 143-268 cells/microL) in white patients in the Cape Town AIDS Cohort > or =40 years of age with an initial CD4(+) cell count of 500-750 cells/microL. CONCLUSIONS: Among both patients from Switzerland and patients from South Africa, CD4(+) cell count decreases were greater in white patients with HIV infection than they were in nonwhite patients with HIV infection.