Predicting coal ash slag flow characteristics (viscosity model for the Al2O3-CaO-'FeO'-SiO2 system)

A model has been developed which enables the viscosities of coal ash slags to be predicted as a function of composition and temperature under reducing conditions. The model describes both completely liquid and heterogeneous, i.e. partly crystallised, slags in the Al2O3-CaO-'FeO'-SiO2 system in equilibrium with metallic iron. The Urbain formalism has been modified to describe the viscosities of the liquid slag phase over the complete range of compositions and a wide range of temperatures. The computer package F * A * C * T was used to predict the proportions of solids and the compositions of the remaining liquid phases. The Roscoe equation has been used to describe the effect of presence of solid suspension (slurry effect) on the viscosity of partly crystallised slag systems. The model provides a good description of the experimental data of fully liquid, and liquid + solids mixtures, over the complete range of compositions and a wide range of temperatures. This model can now be used for viscosity predictions in industrial slag systems. Examples of the application of the new model to coal ash fluxing and blending are given in the paper. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting discharge outcomes for stroke patients in Australia

Objective: This study aimed to describe discharge outcomes and explore their correlates for patients rehabilitated after stroke at an Australian hospital from 1993 to 1998. Design: Data on length of stay, discharge functional status, and discharge destination were retrospectively obtained from medical records. Patients' actual rehabilitation length of stay was compared with the Australian National Sub-Acute and Non-Acute Patient predicted length of stay. The change in length of stay over the 5-yr period from 1993 to 1998 was documented. Results: Patients' mean converted motor FIMTM scores improved from 53.1 at admission to 74.1 at discharge. Lower admission-converted motor FIM scores were related to longer length of stay, lower discharge-converted motor FIM scores, and the need for a change in living situation on discharge. Conclusion: The results of this study provide Australian data on discharge outcomes after stroke to assist in the planning and delivery of appropriate interventions to individual patients during rehabilitation.

The differential role of alcohol expectancies, drinking refusal self-efficacy and coping resources in predicting alcohol consumption in community and clinical samples

This study explored the relationship between coping, alcohol expectancies and drinking refusal self-efficacy in predicting drinking behaviour in both community and clinical samples. These variables were found to have differential effects in their association with frequency and volume of alcohol consumption across the two samples. Generally, drinking refusal self-efficacy was a more salient factor in relation to frequency and volume of community drinking, while coping and expectancies were more strongly associated with frequency of drinking sessions by problem drinkers. The interaction between expectancies and drinking refusal self-efficacy was related to volume of consumption in both groups, while coping and expectancies interacted in their association with frequency in the clinical group. The findings are discussed with regard to the different patterns of cognitive variables governing the decision to drink and the amount consumed in each drinking session, which may differentiate community and problem drinkers.

Predicting plant leaf area production: shoot assimilate accumulation and partitioning, and leaf area ratio, are stable for a wide range of sorghum population densities

Predicting plant leaf area production is required for modelling carbon balance and tiller dynamics in plant canopies. Plant leaf area production can be studied using a framework based on radiation intercepted, radiation use efficiency (RUE) and leaf area ratio (LAR) (ratio of leaf area to net above-ground biomass). The objective of this study was to test this framework for predicting leaf area production of sorghum during vegetative development by examining the stability of the contributing components over a large range of plant density. Four densities, varying from 2 to 16 plants m(-2), were implemented in a field experiment. Plants were either allowed to tiller or were maintained as uniculm by systematic tiller removal. In all cases, intercepted radiation was recorded daily and leaf area and shoot dry matter partitioning were quantified weekly at individual culm level. Up to anthesis, a unique relationship applied between fraction of intercepted radiation and leaf area index, and between shoot dry weight accumulation and amount of intercepted radiation, regardless of plant density. Partitioning of shoot assimilate between leaf, stem and head was also common across treatments up to anthesis, at both plant and culm levels. The relationship with thermal time (TT) from emergence of specific leaf area (SLA) and LAR of tillering plants did not change with plant density. In contrast, SLA of uniculm plants was appreciably lower under low-density conditions at any given TT from emergence. This was interpreted as a consequence of assimilate surplus arising from the inability of the plant to compensate by increasing the leaf area a culm could produce. It is argued that the stability of the extinction coefficient, RUE and plant LAR of tillering plants observed in these conditions provides a reliable way to predict leaf area production regardless of plant density. Crown Copyright (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Predicting the HER2 status of breast cancer from basic histopathology data: an analysis of 1500 breast cancers as part of the HER2000 International Study

The tests that are currently available for the measurement of overexpression of the human epidermal growth factor-2 (HER2) in breast cancer have shown considerable problems in accuracy and interlaboratory reproducibility. Although these problems are partly alleviated by the use of validated, standardised 'kits', there may be considerable cost involved in their use. Prior to testing it may therefore be an advantage to be able to predict from basic pathology data whether a cancer is likely to overexpress HER2. In this study, we have correlated pathology features of cancers with the frequency of HER2 overexpression assessed by immunohistochemistry (IHC) using HercepTest (Dako). In addition, fluorescence in situ hybridisation (FISH) has been used to re-test the equivocal cancers and interobserver variation in assessing HER2 overexpression has been examined by a slide circulation scheme. Of the 1536 cancers, 1144 (74.5%) did not overexpress HER2. Unequivocal overexpression (3+ by IHC) was seen in 186 cancers (12%) and an equivocal result (2+ by IHC) was seen in 206 cancers (13%). Of the 156 IHC 3+ cancers for which complete data was available, 149 (95.5%) were ductal NST and 152 (97%) were histological grade 2 or 3. Only 1 of 124 infiltrating lobular carcinomas (0.8%) showed HER2 overexpression. None of the 49 'special types' of carcinoma showed HER2 overexpression. Re-testing by FISH of a proportion of the IHC 2+ cancers showed that only 25 (23%) of those assessable exhibited HER2 gene amplification, but 46 of the 47 IHC 3+ cancers (98%) were confirmed as showing gene amplification. Circulating slides for the assessment of HER2 score showed a moderate level of agreement between pathologists (kappa 0.4). As a result of this study we would advocate consideration of a triage approach to HER-2 testing. Infiltrating lobular and special types of carcinoma may not need to be routinely tested at presentation nor may grade 1 NST carcinomas in which only 1.4% have been shown to overexpress HER2. Testing of these carcinomas may be performed when HER2 status is required to assist in therapeutic or other clinical/prognostic decision-making. The highest yield of HER2 overexpressing carcinomas is seen in the grade 3 NST subgroup in which 24% are positive by IHC. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting cave initiation and propagation

The most widely used method for predicting the onset of continuous caving is Laubscher's caving chart. A detailed examination of this method was undertaken which concluded that it had limitations which may impact on results, particularly when dealing with stronger rock masses that are outside current experience. These limitations relate to inadequate guidelines for adjustment factors to rock mass rating (RMR), concerns about the position on the chart of critical case history data, undocumented changes to the method and an inadequate number of data points to be confident of stability boundaries. A review was undertaken on the application and reliability of a numerical method of assessing cavability. The review highlighted a number of issues, which at this stage, make numerical continuum methods problematic for predicting cavability. This is in particular reference to sensitivity to input parameters that are difficult to determine accurately and mesh dependency. An extended version of the Mathews method for open stope design was developed as an alternative method of predicting the onset of continuous caving. A number of caving case histories were collected and analyzed and a caving boundary delineated statistically on the Mathews stability graph. The definition of the caving boundary was aided by the existence of a large and wide-ranging stability database from non-caving mines. A caving rate model was extrapolated from the extended Mathews stability graph but could only be partially validated due to a lack of reliable data.

Believing is not enough: Predicting support for the NTEU on an Australian campus

Asurvey-based field study was conducted with 232 members and nonmembers of the National Tertiary Education Union to investigate the psychological processes underpinning union support. Drawing on value-expectancy models and social identity/self-categorisation theory, this study investigated the role that both individual and grouprelated factors play in predicting attitudinal and behavioural support for the union. Variables investigated included instrumental and ideological attitudes, perceptions of a normative climate of union-support, and perceptions of higher education being under threat. Further to support for previous findings for the role of instrumental and ideological attitudes it was found that the perceived workplace norm had the anticipated direct effect on behaviour and evaluation and also moderated the behavioural expression of ideological and instrumental attitudes. The perception of threat to employment and higher education also directly impacted on behaviour and moderated the behavioural expression of ideological beliefs. The implications of these findings for collective action research will he discussed.

Physical consequences of falls in the elderly: a literature review from 1995 to 2010

In the last decade, population ageing has been registered as a global phenomenon. A relation exists between falling and ageing, since falling frequency increases significantly with age. In fact, one in three older adult falls annually. Although ageing is generically associated with decrease and degeneration of psychological and physical functions, it is still not common for the correct identification of risk factors to lead to a clinical prognosis of the elder being in risk of falling. Therefore, the goal of this review article is to identify, categorise and analyse typical ageing and fall factors mentioned in the literature as well as to quantify the number of times they were referenced. The research considered hundreds of publications, but analysis was then restricted to the 87 most pertinent articles written in English and published in journals or scientific magazines between 1995 and 2010. We concluded that falls among older adults can be characterised by the following: anatomic characteristics and physiological consequences of ageing; the pathologies that induce falls, which can be neurological, musculoskeletal, cardiovascular and other diseases; causes and risk factors of falls that can be behavioural, biological, environmental or socio-economic; type of physical consequences of falls, including fractures, bruises, injuries or other physical consequences; and strategies to prevent, mitigate or rehabilitate, which can be of a physical, environmental or behavioural nature.

Physical consequences of falls in the elderly: a literature review from 1995 to 2010

In the last decade, population ageing has been registered as a global phenomenon. A relation exists between falling and ageing, since falling frequency increases significantly with age. In fact, one in three older adult falls annually. Although ageing is generically associated with decrease and degeneration of psychological and physical functions, it is still not common for the correct identification of risk factors to lead to a clinical prognosis of the elder being in risk of falling. Therefore, the goal of this review article is to identify, categorise and analyse typical ageing and fall factors mentioned in the literature as well as to quantify the number of times they were referenced. The research considered hundreds of publications, but analysis was then restricted to the 87 most pertinent articles written in English and published in journals or scientific magazines between 1995 and 2010. We concluded that falls among older adults can be characterised by the following: anatomic characteristics and physiological consequences of ageing; the pathologies that induce falls, which can be neurological, musculoskeletal, cardiovascular and other diseases; causes and risk factors of falls that can be behavioural, biological, environmental or socio-economic; type of physical consequences of falls, including fractures, bruises, injuries or other physical consequences; and strategies to prevent, mitigate or rehabilitate, which can be of a physical, environmental or behavioural nature.

Predicting the mechanical behavior of amorphous polymeric materials under strain through multi-scale simulation

Polymeric materials have become the reference material for high reliability and performance applications. However, their performance in service conditions is difficult to predict, due in large part to their inherent complex morphology, which leads to non-linear and anisotropic behavior, highly dependent on the thermomechanical environment under which it is processed. In this work, a multiscale approach is proposed to investigate the mechanical properties of polymeric-based material under strain. To achieve a better understanding of phenomena occurring at the smaller scales, the coupling of a finite element method (FEM) and molecular dynamics (MD) modeling, in an iterative procedure, was employed, enabling the prediction of the macroscopic constitutive response. As the mechanical response can be related to the local microstructure, which in turn depends on the nano-scale structure, this multiscale approach computes the stress-strain relationship at every analysis point of the macro-structure by detailed modeling of the underlying micro- and meso-scale deformation phenomena. The proposed multiscale approach can enable prediction of properties at the macroscale while taking into consideration phenomena that occur at the mesoscale, thus offering an increased potential accuracy compared to traditional methods.

Survival Analysis Employed in Predicting Corporate Failure: A Forecasting Model Proposal

In face of the current economic and financial environment, predicting corporate bankruptcy is arguably a phenomenon of increasing interest to investors, creditors, borrowing firms, and governments alike. Within the strand of literature focused on bankruptcy forecasting we can find diverse types of research employing a wide variety of techniques, but only a few researchers have used survival analysis for the examination of this issue. We propose a model for the prediction of corporate bankruptcy based on survival analysis, a technique which stands on its own merits. In this research, the hazard rate is the probability of ‘‘bankruptcy’’ as of time t, conditional upon having survived until time t. Many hazard models are applied in a context where the running of time naturally affects the hazard rate. The model employed in this paper uses the time of survival or the hazard risk as dependent variable, considering the unsuccessful companies as censured observations.

Predicting the revolving door phenomenon among patients with schizophrenic, affective disorders and non-organic psychoses

OBJECTIVE: The aim of the study was to identify the variables that predict the revolving door phenomenon in psychiatric hospital at the moment of a second admission. METHODS: The sample consisted of 3,093 patients who have been followed during 5 to 24 years after their first hospital admission due to schizophrenia, and affective or psychotic disorders. Those who had had four or more admissions during the study period were considered as revolving door patients. Logistic regression analyses were used to assess the impact of gender, age, marital status, urban conditions, diagnosis, mean period of stay on the first admission, interval between the first and second admissions on the patterns of hospitalization. RESULTS: The variables with the highest predictive power for readmission were the interval between first and second admissions, and the length of stay in the first admission. CONCLUSIONS: These data may help public health planners in providing optimal care to a small group of patients with more effective utilization of the available services.