Nominal Stability and Financial Globalization

Over the past four decades, advanced economies experienced a large growth in gross external portfolio positions. This phenomenon has been described as Financial Globalization. Over roughly the same time frame, most of these countries also saw a substantial fall in the level and variability of inflation. Many economists have conjectured that financial globalization contributed to the improved performance in the level and predictability of inflation. In this paper, we explore the causal link running in the opposite direction. We show that a monetary policy rule which reduces inflation variability leads to an increase in the size of gross external positions, both in equity and bond portfolios. This appears to be a robust prediction of open economy macro models with endogenous portfolio choice. It holds across different modeling specifications and parameterizations. We also present preliminary empirical evidence which shows a negative relationship between inflation volatility and the size of gross external positions.

Fiscal policy, foresight and the trade balance in the U.S.

This paper investigates the effects of fiscal policy on the trade balance using a structural factor model. A fiscal policy shock worsens the trade balance and produces an appreciation of the domestic currency but the effects are quantitatively small. The findings match the theoretical predictions of the standard Mundell-Fleming model, although fiscal policy should not be considered one of the main causes of the large US external deficit. My conclusions differ from those reached using VAR models since the fiscal shock, possibly due to fiscal foresight, is nonfundamental for the variables typically used in open economy VARs.

Economic Booms, Trade Deficits, and Economic Policy

Many economic booms have been accompanied by real exchange rate appreciations, large trade defcits -which have sometimes persisted after the return to the initial exchange rate parity- and a deteriorating traded sector. Those circumstances have typically raised the question of the de-sirability of some stabilization policy. We show that the dynamics induced by an expected productivity shock in an economy where the capital stock is non-mobile across sectors, match those circumstances. Furthermore, we obtain that credit market imperfections tend to exacerbate trade deficits, and to cause an inefficient capacity reduction in the traded sector. Some stabilization policies are explored.

Monetary policy with signal extraction from the bond market

Monetary policy is conducted in an environment of uncertainty. This paper sets upa model where the central bank uses real-time data from the bond market togetherwith standard macroeconomic indicators to estimate the current state of theeconomy more efficiently, while taking into account that its own actions influencewhat it observes. The timeliness of bond market data allows for quicker responsesof monetary policy to disturbances compared to the case when the central bankhas to rely solely on collected aggregate data. The information content of theterm structure creates a link between the bond market and the macroeconomythat is novel to the literature. To quantify the importance of the bond market asa source of information, the model is estimated on data for the United Statesand Australia using Bayesian methods. The empirical exercise suggests that thereis some information in the US term structure that helps the Federal Reserve toidentify shocks to the economy on a timely basis. Australian bond prices seemto be less informative than their US counterparts, perhaps because Australia is arelatively small and open economy.

Country portfolios and the Solow-model

This paper shows that an open economy Solow model provides a good description of international investment positions in industrialized countries. More than half of the variation of net foreign assets in the 1990's can be attributed to cross country differences in the savings rate, population and productivity growth. Furthermore, these factors seem to be an important channel through which output and wealth affect international investment positions. We interpret this funding as evidence that decreasing returns are an important source of international capital movements. The savings rate (andpopulation growth) influence the composition of country portfolios through their downward (upward) pressure on the marginal productivity of capital.

Testing calibrated general equilibrium models

This paper illustrates the philosophy which forms the basis of calibrationexercises in general equilibrium macroeconomic models and the details of theprocedure, the advantages and the disadvantages of the approach, with particularreference to the issue of testing ``false'' economic models. We provide anoverview of the most recent simulation--based approaches to the testing problemand compare them to standard econometric methods used to test the fit of non--lineardynamic general equilibrium models. We illustrate how simulation--based techniques can be used to formally evaluate the fit of a calibrated modelto the data and obtain ideas on how to improve the model design using a standardproblem in the international real business cycle literature, i.e. whether amodel with complete financial markets and no restrictions to capital mobility is able to reproduce the second order properties of aggregate savingand aggregate investment in an open economy.

A Tributação de Prestação de Serviços em Cabo Verde

O presente trabalho investiga a tributação dos serviços em Cabo Verde, trata-se de uma questão importante do ponto de vista financeiro, uma vez que a economia aberta e insular de Cabo Verde é uma grande consumidora de serviços prestados por operadores económicos não residentes. Por outro lado trata de uma questão interessante do ponto de vista jurídico, porque parece actualmente faltar norma de incidência que permite a sujeição destes rendimentos ao Imposto Único sobre os Rendimentos Cabo-verdiano. Em face disto poder-se-ia porventura afirmar que as normas de incidência que servem para fundamentar a tributação dos rendimentos derivados de prestação de serviços a não residentes se encontram nas disposições orçamentais que fixam a própria taxa liberatória de 20% aplicável ao rendimento auferido por não residentes, mesmo que não tenham estabelecimentos estáveis. De resto, não é com base no regulamento do IUR mas com base nas leis do Orçamentos do Estado que a administração fiscal Cabo-verdiana tem vindo a proceder á liquidação deste imposto. As taxas liberatórias previstas nas leis orçamentais não podem nunca aplicar-se a rendimentos que se encontrem fora do âmbito de incidência objectiva, subjectiva ou territorial do IUR. Depois de estudado o tratamento que o direito interno cabo-verdiano faz dos rendimentos derivados de prestação de serviços vale a pena olhar brevemente também ao tratamento que eles merecem no contexto do direito internacional e, muito em particular, da convenção para evitar a Dupla Tributação (CDT) em matéria de imposto sobre o rendimento e prevenir a evasão fiscal, celebrada entre Cabo Verde e Portugal no ano de 1999 e actualmente em vigor.

Economic booms, trade deficits and economic policy

Many economic booms have been accompanied by realexchange rate appreciations, large trade defcits -whichhave sometimes persisted after the return to the initialexchange rate parity- and a deteriorating traded sector.Those circumstances have typically raised the questionof the de-sirability of some stabilization policy. We show that the dynamics induced by an expectedproductivity shock in an economy where the capital stockis non-mobile across sectors, match those circumstances.Furthermore, we obtain that credit market imperfectionstend to exacerbate trade deficits, and to cause aninefficient capacity reduction in the traded sector.Some stabilization policies are explored.

Understanding the gains from wage flexibility: The exchange rate connection

We study the gains from increased wage flexibility and their dependence on exchange rate policy, using a small open economy model with staggered price andwage setting. Two results stand out: (i) the impact of wage adjustments on employment is smaller the more the central bank seeks to stabilize the exchange rate,and (ii) an increase in wage flexibility often reduces welfare, and more likely so ineconomies under an exchange rate peg or an exchange rate-focused monetary policy.Our findings call into question the common view that wage flexibility is particularlydesirable in a currency union.

Capital Controls with International Reserve Accumulation: Can this Be Optimal ?

Motivated by the Chinese experience, we analyze a semi-open economy where the central bank has access to international capital markets, but the private sector has not. This enables the central bank to choose an interest rate different from the international rate. We examine the optimal policy of the central bank by modelling it as a Ramsey planner who can choose the level of domestic public debt and of international reserves. The central bank can improve savings opportunities of credit-constrained consumers modelled as in Woodford (1990). We find that in a steady state it is optimal for the central bank to replicate the open economy, i.e., to issue debt financed by the accumulation of reserves so that the domestic interest rate equals the foreign rate. When the economy is in transition, however, a rapidly growing economy has a higher welfare without capital mobility and the optimal interest rate differs from the international rate. We argue that the domestic interest rate should be temporarily above the international rate. We also find that capital controls can still help reach the first best when the planner has more fiscal instruments.

Innovation Ecosystem Perspectives on Financial Services Innovation

The context of financial services has been characterised by changes in the regulatory, technological and societal landscape. Consumers are increasingly interested in mobile payments, crowdfunding and microfinance services, either for themselves or because collaborative consumption is viewed as a more sustainable. Retail branches are re-organised to further meet the expectations of customers, start-ups focusing on technology for financial services (i.e. Fintech) are ever growing and financial services companies reinforce their own innovation practices (e.g. creation of innovation labs or venture capital investment funds). The innovation ecosystem around financial services companies represents the many actors with whom they can co-create and co-produce innovative new services for their customers (or for themselves). The innovation process is no longer a closed internal effort but needs to include external actors from the innovation ecosystem. This topic is especially interesting in a small and open economy where the financial centre takes a prominent place in the economy. The research question is therefore “How does the innovation ecosystem influence the innovation process within financial services companies?”. The influence of the innovation ecosystem on the innovation process within financial service companies mainly comes from its social capital and value creation efforts. However learning to work and exchange in an innovation ecosystem is also expected to influence the innovation process in place. Realizing the potential of the innovation ecosystem requires sufficient capabilities to manage new information coming from the innovation ecosystem. The professional associations provide the necessary coordination among actors in the innovation ecosystem to co-create and appropriate value, while fostering co-evolution within the innovation ecosystem.

O circuito finance-investimento-poupança- funding em economias abertas

The finance-investment-savings-funding circuit in open economies. On monetary economies the Finance-Investment-Savings-Funding circuit (F-I-S-F) prevails. Investment precedes savings. This circuit was worked out for a closed economy. This study seeks to demonstrate that the circuit F-I-S-F also prevails for open economies. A second point studied in this paper relates the relationship between budget deficits and savings restriction for investment. Conclusions highlight that the circuit F-I-S-F prevails for open economies and that budget deficits do not cause savings restriction for investment. In some situations budget déficits transfer the effects of investment for national savings formation from domestic economy to the rest of the world.

International Transmission of the Business Cycle in a Multi-Sector Model.

Multi-country models have not been very successful in replicating important features of the international transmission of business cycles. Standard models predict cross-country correlations of output and consumption which are respectively too low and too high. In this paper, we build a multi-country model of the business cycle with multiple sectors in order to analyze the role of sectoral shocks in the international transmission of the business cycle. We find that a model with multiple sectors generates a higher cross-country correlation of output than standard one-sector models, and a lower cross-country correlation of consumption. In addition, it predicts cross-country correlations of employment and investment that are closer to the data than the standard model. We also analyze the relative effects of multiple sectors, trade in intermediate goods, imperfect substitution between domestic and foreign goods, home preference, capital adjustment costs, and capital depreciation on the international transmission of the business cycle.

Termes de l'échange endogènes et cycles économiques réels : une application à la Côte-d'Ivoire

À l’aide d’un modèle de cycles réels, la présente étude vise à expliquer, de façon endogène, les fluctuations des termes de l’échange en Côte-d’Ivoire. Pour ce faire, nous cherchons principalement à répondre aux deux questions suivantes : les chocs d’offre et de demande sur le marché d’exportation suffisent-ils à expliquer les variations des termes de l’échange? Et quelle est leur importance relative dans la dynamique des termes de l’échange? Les résultats montrent que les deux chocs considérés expliquent bien la volatilité des termes de l’échange. Nous avons noté que ces deux sources d’impulsions ont un impact significatif sur les fluctuations économiques en Côte-d’Ivoire.