Transparency in project bond ratings: Assessment of rating methodologies and development of a proven rating simulator

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Métodos de avaliação do impacto económico dos eventos adversos em meio hospitalar

RESUMO - O sistema de saúde é constantemente sujeito a pressões sendo as mais relevantes a pressão para o aumento da qualidade e a necessidade de contenção de custos. Os Eventos Adversos (EAs) ocorridos em meio hospitalar constituem um sério problema de qualidade na prestação de cuidados de saúde, com consequências clinicas, sociais, económicas e de imagem, que afectam pacientes, profissionais, organizações e o próprio sistema de saúde. Os custos associados à ocorrência de EAs em meio hospitalar, incrementam significativamente os custos hospitalares, representando cerca de um em cada sete dólares gastos no atendimento dos doentes. Só na última década surgiram estudos com o objectivo principal de avaliar esse impacto em meio hospitalar, subsistindo ainda uma grande indefinição quanto às variáveis e métodos a utilizar. O objectivo principal deste trabalho de projecto foi conhecer e caracterizar as diferentes metodologias utilizadas para avaliação dos custos económicos, nomeadamente dos custos directos, relacionados com a ocorrência de eventos adversos em meio hospitalar. Tendo em atenção as dificuldades referidas, utilizou-se como metodologia a revisão narrativa da literatura, complementada com a realização de uma técnica de grupo nominal. Os resultados obtidos foram os seguintes: i) a metodologia utilizada na maioria dos estudos para determinar a frequência, natureza e consequências dos EAs ocorridos em meio hospitalar, utiliza matrizes de base observacional, analítica, com base em estudos de coorte retrospectivo recorrendo aos critérios definidos pelo Harvard Medical Practice Study; ii) a generalidade dos estudos realizados avaliam os custos directos dos EAs em meio hospitalar, iii) verificou-se a existência de uma grande diversidade de métodos para a determinação dos custos associados aos EAs. A generalidade dos estudos determina esse valor com base na contabilização do número de dias adicionais de internamento, resultantes do EA, valorizados com base em custos médios; iv) o grupo de peritos, propôs como metodologia para a determinação do custo associado a cada EA, a utilização de sistemas de custeio por doente; v) propõe-se o desenvolvimento de uma plataforma informática, que permita o cruzamento da informação disponível no registo clinico electrónico do doente com um sistema automático de identificação de EAs, a desenvolver, e com sistemas de custeio por doente, de modo a valorizar os custos por doente e por tipo de EA. A avaliação dos custos directos associados à ocorrência de EAs em contexto hospitalar, pelo impacto económico e social que tem nos doentes e organizações, será seguramente uma das áreas de estudo e investigação futuras, no sentido de melhorar a eficiência do sistema de saúde e a qualidade e segurança dos cuidados prestados aos doentes.

Molecular detection of Treponema pallidum sp. pallidum in blood samples of VDRL-seroreactive women with lethal pregnancy outcomes: a retrospective observational study in northern Brazil

INTRODUCTION: Although control measures of maternal and congenital syphilis are available in Brazil, difficulties exist within the healthcare network in providing a laboratory diagnosis of the infection during the prenatal period. The objective of this study was to confirm the presence of Treponema pallidum by PCR in women with positive VDRL serology and lethal pregnancy outcomes, i.e., abortion, stillbirth and neonatal death. METHODS: A retrospective study was conducted on VDRLseroreactive women with lethal pregnancy outcomes admitted to the Fundação Santa Casa de Misericórdia do Pará (FSCM-PA) between January and July 2004. Serum samples and DNA from whole blood were obtained at the time of screening by the VDRL test. These samples were analyzed by IgG ELISA, IgM FTA-Abs and simple PCR (polA). RESULTS: During the study period, 0.7% (36/4,912) of women with lethal pregnancy outcomes presented a positive VDRL test. The polAgene was amplified in 72.7% (24/33) of these women, with 55.6% (20/36) and 94.4% (34/36) presenting IgM and IgG antibodies against T. pallidum, respectively. Comparison of these results showed a significant difference, with agreement between the PCR and IgM FTA-Abs results, suggesting that maternal syphilis was an active infection. No basic cause of death of the conceptus was reported in 97.2% (35/36) of cases. Among women who were submitted to the VDRL test during the prenatal period, only four of the nine seroreactive patients underwent treatment. CONCLUSIONS: The high frequency of syphilis in the group studied indicates the fragility of the service of infection diagnosis, treatment and monitoring, compromising epidemiological control.

Marine Protected Areas (MPAs): Methodologies for assessment

Marine Protected Areas are an effective way of protecting biodiversity, with potential socio-economic benefits including the enhancement of local fisheries and maintenance of ecosystem services. However, local fishing communities often fear short-term revenue losses and thus may oppose marine protected areas creation. This work includes a review of the need of having management effectiveness evaluation and its importance in providing useful information for stakeholders. Therefore, evaluation methodologies are presented and assessed in order to suggest possible approaches to the Berlengas MPA. In this case, an indicator-based approach can be relevant as a starting point, providing already some insights about the management effectiveness of Berlengas MPA. It also supports the development of a more ambitious approach such as a bio-economic model.

Innovative methodologies for the enhancement of the flexural strengthening performance of NSM CFRP technique for RC beams

Tese de Doutoramento em Engenharia Civil

Methodology for real-time adaptation of tunnels support using the observational method

The observational method in tunnel engineering allows the evaluation in real time of the actual conditions of the ground and to take measures if its behavior deviates considerably from predictions. However, it lacks a consistent and structured methodology to use the monitoring data to adapt the support system in real time. The definition of limit criteria above which adaptation is required are not defined and complex inverse analysis procedures (Rechea et al. 2008, Levasseur et al. 2010, Zentar et al. 2001, Lecampion et al. 2002, Finno and Calvello 2005, Goh 1999, Cui and Pan 2012, Deng et al. 2010, Mathew and Lehane 2013, Sharifzadeh et al. 2012, 2013) may be needed to consistently analyze the problem. In this paper a methodology for the real time adaptation of the support systems during tunneling is presented. In a first step limit criteria for displacements and stresses are proposed. The methodology uses graphics that are constructed during the project stage based on parametric calculations to assist in the process and when these graphics are not available, since it is not possible to predict every possible scenario, inverse analysis calculations are carried out. The methodology is applied to the “Bois de Peu” tunnel which is composed by two tubes with over 500 m long. High uncertainty levels existed concerning the heterogeneity of the soil and consequently in the geomechanical design parameters. The methodology was applied in four sections and the results focus on two of them. It is shown that the methodology has potential to be applied in real cases contributing for a consistent approach of a real time adaptation of the support system and highlight the importance of the existence of good quality and specific monitoring data to improve the inverse analysis procedure.

Combining analytical methodologies for the identification of Aspergillus section Flavi strains isolated from Brazilian agricultural commodities

The use of chemical analysis of microbial components, including proteins, became an important achievement in the 80’s of the last century to the microbial identification. This led a more objective microbial identification scheme, called chemotaxonomy, and the analytical tools used in the field are mainly 1D/2D gel electrophoresis, spectrophotometry, high-performance liquid chromatography, gas chromatography, and combined gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. The Edman degradation reaction was also applied to peptides sequence giving important insights to the microbial identification. The rapid development of these techniques, in association with knowledge generated by DNA sequencing and phylogeny based on rRNA gene and housekeeping genes sequences, boosted the microbial identification to an unparalleled scale. The recent results of mass spectrometry (MS), like Matrix-Assisted Laser Desorption/Ionisation Time-of-Flight (MALDI-TOF), for rapid and reliable microbial identification showed considerable promise. In addition, the technique is rapid, reliable and inexpensive in terms of labour and consumables when compared with other biological techniques. At present, MALDI-TOF MS adds an additional step for polyphasic identification which is essential when there is a paucity of characters or high DNA homologies for delimiting very close related species. The full impact of this approach is now being appreciated when more diverse species are studied in detail and successfully identified. However, even with the best polyphasic system, identification of some taxa remains time-consuming and determining what represents a species remains subjective. The possibilities opened with new and even more robust mass spectrometers combined with sound and reliable databases allow not only the microbial identification based on the proteome fingerprinting but also include de novo specific proteins sequencing as additional step. These approaches are pushing the boundaries in the microbial identification field.

The importance of the category of consciousness and education for sustainability in methodologies for eco‐efficiency in school buildings

This document reports the importance of the category of consciousness and education for sustainability in the school environment. Education in school has a potential to make the benefits of the building construction visible for society and media, showing to the students, parents and communities how sustainability in built environment could improve the people life in economic, social and environment aspects. Thus, this paper addresses the main events related to sustainability, such as the Stockholm Conference, the Brundtland report, United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) and Agenda 21, until reaching the necessity of the elaboration of Methodologies for environmental assessment of building, and later, the development of the specific methodologies according to the buildings. It is also described some examples of sustainability in schools in Germany, Finland and Italy and what kind of sustainable systems those countries are currently using.

Desarrollo de metodologias de propagación y cultivo de plantas nativas de Córdoba con potencialornamental. Development of propagation and cultivation methodologies of native plants of Córdoba withornamental potential.

El problema: La flora nativa de Córdoba, actualmente amenazada, es rica en especies con potencial ornamental que todavía no se cultivan. El uso de estas plantas está limitado por la escasez de material biológico, la falta de conocimientos de su propagación y su insuficiente valoración pública. Hipótesis: La propagación y el cultivo de una amplia gama de plantas nativas cordobesas con potencial ornamental son técnicamente factibles y tienen potencial productivo y económico. Objetivo: Promover el uso de especies nativas ornamentales en la provincia de Córdoba. Objetivos específicos: 1. Desarrollar metodologías de propagación y cultivo de especies nativas con potencial ornamental; 2. Transferir estas metodologías a viveros privados y públicos; 3. Difundir los conocimientos obtenidos a instituciones educativas. Métodos: 1- Colección: Se realizarán viajes de campo para obtener semillas o esquejes de al menos 6 especies nativas seleccionadas. Las semillas se limpiarán y se conservarán en frío. 2- Propagación: En la primavera se sembrarán 100 semillas por especie, accesión y tratamiento; se registrará porcentaje y tiempo de germinación. Los plantines se trasplantarán a almácigos, se registrará supervivencia y crecimiento. Para la propagación vegetativa, se trasplantarán esquejes de estolones directamente a macetas. 3- Trasplante: En verano, los plantines se trasplantarán a macetas grandes; se registrará supervivencia y crecimiento durante un año. 4- Documentación: Se elaborarán protocolos de las metodologías adecuadas para la propagación de las especies, usos ornamentales y características relevantes. 5- Transferencia: Los protocolos, muestras de semillas y de plantas, se transferirán a dos viveros que se comprometan a continuar con el cultivo de las especies. 6- Difusión: Se realizarán cursos, talleres, charlas y pasantías para dar a conocer la propagación de plantas nativas en instituciones educativas, desde la primaria hasta la universidad. Resultados y productos esperados: 1- Protocolos de propagación de al menos 6 especies nativas ornamentales y su transferencia a viveros, como base de una actividad productiva novedosa. 2- Un aporte a la conservación ex situ y el uso sostenible de la flora nativa. 3- Una mayor valoración de esta en la comunidad educativa. Importancia: 1- Desarrollo de la producción de plantas nativas con valor ornamental, como una alternativa económica. 2- Conservación ex situ y uso sostenible de la flora nativa. 3- Difusión del conocimiento del valor ornamental de las nativas. 4. Información científica de la biología y ecología de especies nativas. Pertinencia: Productos (ver Resultados). El impacto inmediato esperado es un aumento en la propagación, la producción, la demanda, la comercialización y el uso de plantas ornamentales nativas. Se espera también la generación de nuevos conocimientos y el estímulo de líneas de investigación biológicas y agronómicas.

The occurrence of intra-operative hypotension varies between hospitals: observational analysis of more than 147,000 anaesthesia.

BACKGROUND: Hypotension, a common intra-operative incident, bears an important potential for morbidity. It is most often manageable and sometimes preventable, which renders its study important. Therefore, we aimed at examining hospital variations in the occurrence of intra-operative hypotension and its predictors. As secondary endpoints, we determined to what extent hypotension relates to the risk of post-operative incidents and death. METHODS: We used the Anaesthesia Databank Switzerland, built on routinely and prospectively collected data on all anaesthesias in 21 hospitals. The three outcomes were assessed using multi-level logistic regression models. RESULTS: Among 147,573 anaesthesias, hypotension ranged from 0.6% to 5.2% in participating hospitals, and from 0.3% up to 12% in different surgical specialties. Most (73.4%) were minor single events. Age, ASA status, combined general and regional anaesthesia techniques, duration of surgery and hospitalization were significantly associated with hypotension. Although significantly associated, the emergency status of the surgery had a weaker effect. Hospitals' odds ratios for hypotension varied between 0.12 and 2.50 (P < or = 0.001), even after adjusting for patient and anaesthesia factors, and for type of surgery. At least one post-operative incident occurred in 9.7% of the procedures, including 0.03% deaths. Intra-operative hypotension was associated with a higher risk of post-operative incidents and death. CONCLUSION: Wide variations remain in the occurrence of hypotension among hospitals after adjustment for risk factors. Although differential reporting from hospitals may exist, variations in anaesthesia techniques and blood pressure maintenance may also have contributed. Intra-operative hypotension is associated with morbidities and sometimes death, and constant vigilance must thus be advocated.

Indicators for the total number of melanocytic naevi : an adjunct for screening campaigns. Observational study on 292 patients.

BACKGROUND: The presence of multiple melanocytic naevi is a strong risk factor for melanoma. Use of the whole body naevus count to identify at-risk patients is impractical. OBJECTIVES: To (i) identify a valid anatomical predictor of total naevus count; (ii) determine the number of naevi that most accurately predict total naevus count above 25, 50 and 100; and (iii) evaluate determinants of multiple melanocytic naevi and atypical naevi. METHODS: Clinical data from 292 consecutive Spanish patients consulting for skin lesions requiring debriding were collected throughout 2009 and 2010. Correlations between site-specific and whole body naevus counts were analysed. Cut-offs to predict total naevus counts were determined using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. RESULTS: The studied population was young (median age 31 years, interquartile range 28-43). The naevus count on the right arm correlated best with the total nevus count (R(2) 0·80 for men, 0·86 for women). Presence of at least five naevi on the right arm was the strongest determinant of a total naevus count above 50 [odds ratio (OR) 34·4, 95% confidence interval (CI) 13·9-85·0] and of having at least one atypical naevus (OR 5·7, 95% CI 2·4-13·5). Cut-off values of 6, 8 and 11 naevi on the right arm best predicted total naevus count above 25, 50 and 100, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Our results support the arm as a practical and reliable site to estimate the total naevus count when screening or phenotyping large populations. Threshold values for the number of naevi on the arm are proposed to help identify patients for melanoma screening.

News Shocks and Business Cycles: Bridging the Gap from Different Methodologies

An important disconnect in the news driven view of the business cycle formalized by Beaudry and Portier (2004), is the lack of agreement between different—VAR and DSGE—methodologies over the empirical plausibility of this view. We argue that this disconnect can be largely resolved once we augment a standard DSGE model with a financial channel that provides amplification to news shocks. Both methodologies suggest news shocks to the future growth prospects of the economy to be significant drivers of U.S. business cycles in the post-Greenspan era (1990-2011), explaining as much as 50% of the forecast error variance in hours worked in cyclical frequencies

Evaluation of DNA Recombinant Methodologies for the Diagnosis of Plasmodium falciparum and their Comparison with the Microscopy Assay

Since 1984, DNA tests based on the highly repeated subtelomeric sequences of Plasmodium falciparum (rep 20) have been frequently used in malaria diagnosis. Rep 20 is very specific for this parasite, and is made of 21 bp units, organized in repeated blocks with direct and inverted orientation. Based in this particular organization, we selected a unique consensus oligonucleotide (pf-21) to drive a PCR reaction coupled to hybridization to non-radioactive labeled probes. The pf-21 unique oligo PCR (pf-21-I) assay produced DNA amplification fingerprints when was applied on purified P. falciparum DNA samples (Brazil and Colombia), as well as in patient's blood samples from a large area of Venezuela. The performance of the Pf-21-I assay was compared against Giemsa stained thick blood smears from samples collected at a malaria endemic area of the Bolívar State, Venezuela, at the field station of Malariología in Tumeremo. Coupled to non-radioactive hybridization the pf-21-I performed better than the traditional microscopic method with a r=1.7:1. In the case of mixed infections the r value of P. falciparum detection increased to 2.5:1. The increased diagnostic sensitivity of the test produced with this homologous oligonucleotide could provide an alternative to the epidemiological diagnosis of P. falciparum being currently used in Venezuela endemic areas, where low parasitemia levels and asymptomatic malaria are frequent. In addition, the DNA fingerprint could be tested in molecular population studies