A partial dependence factorial analysis to deal with selection bias in observational studis

This thesis presents a creative and practical approach to dealing with the problem of selection bias. Selection bias may be the most important vexing problem in program evaluation or in any line of research that attempts to assert causality. Some of the greatest minds in economics and statistics have scrutinized the problem of selection bias, with the resulting approaches – Rubin’s Potential Outcome Approach(Rosenbaum and Rubin,1983; Rubin, 1991,2001,2004) or Heckman’s Selection model (Heckman, 1979) – being widely accepted and used as the best fixes. These solutions to the bias that arises in particular from self selection are imperfect, and many researchers, when feasible, reserve their strongest causal inference for data from experimental rather than observational studies. The innovative aspect of this thesis is to propose a data transformation that allows measuring and testing in an automatic and multivariate way the presence of selection bias. The approach involves the construction of a multi-dimensional conditional space of the X matrix in which the bias associated with the treatment assignment has been eliminated. Specifically, we propose the use of a partial dependence analysis of the X-space as a tool for investigating the dependence relationship between a set of observable pre-treatment categorical covariates X and a treatment indicator variable T, in order to obtain a measure of bias according to their dependence structure. The measure of selection bias is then expressed in terms of inertia due to the dependence between X and T that has been eliminated. Given the measure of selection bias, we propose a multivariate test of imbalance in order to check if the detected bias is significant, by using the asymptotical distribution of inertia due to T (Estadella et al. 2005) , and by preserving the multivariate nature of data. Further, we propose the use of a clustering procedure as a tool to find groups of comparable units on which estimate local causal effects, and the use of the multivariate test of imbalance as a stopping rule in choosing the best cluster solution set. The method is non parametric, it does not call for modeling the data, based on some underlying theory or assumption about the selection process, but instead it calls for using the existing variability within the data and letting the data to speak. The idea of proposing this multivariate approach to measure selection bias and test balance comes from the consideration that in applied research all aspects of multivariate balance, not represented in the univariate variable- by-variable summaries, are ignored. The first part contains an introduction to evaluation methods as part of public and private decision process and a review of the literature of evaluation methods. The attention is focused on Rubin Potential Outcome Approach, matching methods, and briefly on Heckman’s Selection Model. The second part focuses on some resulting limitations of conventional methods, with particular attention to the problem of how testing in the correct way balancing. The third part contains the original contribution proposed , a simulation study that allows to check the performance of the method for a given dependence setting and an application to a real data set. Finally, we discuss, conclude and explain our future perspectives.

Body-mass index and incidence of cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective observational studies

BACKGROUND: Excess bodyweight, expressed as increased body-mass index (BMI), is associated with the risk of some common adult cancers. We did a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the strength of associations between BMI and different sites of cancer and to investigate differences in these associations between sex and ethnic groups. METHODS: We did electronic searches on Medline and Embase (1966 to November 2007), and searched reports to identify prospective studies of incident cases of 20 cancer types. We did random-effects meta-analyses and meta-regressions of study-specific incremental estimates to determine the risk of cancer associated with a 5 kg/m2 increase in BMI. FINDINGS: We analysed 221 datasets (141 articles), including 282,137 incident cases. In men, a 5 kg/m2 increase in BMI was strongly associated with oesophageal adenocarcinoma (RR 1.52, p<0.0001) and with thyroid (1.33, p=0.02), colon (1.24, p<0.0001), and renal (1.24, p <0.0001) cancers. In women, we recorded strong associations between a 5 kg/m2 increase in BMI and endometrial (1.59, p<0.0001), gallbladder (1.59, p=0.04), oesophageal adenocarcinoma (1.51, p<0.0001), and renal (1.34, p<0.0001) cancers. We noted weaker positive associations (RR <1.20) between increased BMI and rectal cancer and malignant melanoma in men; postmenopausal breast, pancreatic, thyroid, and colon cancers in women; and leukaemia, multiple myeloma, and non-Hodgkin lymphoma in both sexes. Associations were stronger in men than in women for colon (p<0.0001) cancer. Associations were generally similar in studies from North America, Europe and Australia, and the Asia-Pacific region, but we recorded stronger associations in Asia-Pacific populations between increased BMI and premenopausal (p=0.009) and postmenopausal (p=0.06) breast cancers. INTERPRETATION: Increased BMI is associated with increased risk of common and less common malignancies. For some cancer types, associations differ between sexes and populations of different ethnic origins. These epidemiological observations should inform the exploration of biological mechanisms that link obesity with cancer.

Observational patrol of the moon and planets and analysis of the nature of their markings; : final report.

"New Mexico State University Research Center ... AF 19(604)-5570. May 1961. Prepared for Geophysics Research Directorate, Air Force Cambridge Research Center, Air Research and Development Command, United States Air Force, Bedford, Massachusetts."

The diagnostic reliability of Internet-based observational kinematic gait analysis

We investigated the accuracy and reliability of observational kinematic gait assessments performed via a low-bandwidth Internet link (118 kbit/s) and a higher-speed Internet link (128 kbit/s). Twenty-four subjects were randomized to either bandwidth group. Gait was assessed with the Gait Assessment Rating Scale (GARS) in the traditional manner, which is from video-recordings, and with repeated measurements via the online method. Online assessment was found to provide as accurate a measure of gait performance as the traditional assessment (limits of agreement

The effect of gender context on children's social behaviour in a limited resources situation : an observational study

Knowing when to compete and when to cooperate to maximize opportunities for equal access to activities and materials in groups is critical to children's social and cognitive development. The present study examined the individual (gender, social competence) and contextual factors (gender context) that may determine why some children are more successful than others. One hundred and fifty-six children (M age=6.5 years) were divided into 39 groups of four and videotaped while engaged in a task that required them to cooperate in order to view cartoons. Children within all groups were unfamiliar to one another. Groups varied in gender composition (all girls, all boys, or mixed-sex) and social competence (high vs. low). Group composition by gender interaction effects were found. Girls were most successful at gaining viewing time in same-sex groups, and least successful in mixed-sex groups. Conversely, boys were least successful in same-sex groups and most successful in mixed-sex groups. Similar results were also found at the group level of analysis; however, the way in which the resources were distributed differed as a function of group type. Same-sex girl groups were inequitable but efficient whereas same-sex boy groups were more equitable than mixed groups but inefficient compared to same-sex girl groups. Social competence did not influence children's behavior. The findings from the present study highlight the effect of gender context on cooperation and competition and the relevance of adopting an unfamiliar peer paradigm when investigating children's social behavior.

Talking about watching : using the video card game and wiki-web technology to engage IT students in developing observational skills.

Designers need to develop good observational skills in order to conduct user studies that reveal the subtleties of human interactions and adequately inform design activity. In this paper we describe a game format that we have used in concert with wiki-web technology, to engage our IT and Information Environments students in developing much sharper observational skills. The Video Card Game is a method of video analysis that is suited to design practitioners as well as to researchers. It uses the familiar format of a card game similar to "Happy Families,, to help students develop themes of interactions from watching video clips. Students then post their interaction themes on wiki-web pages, which allows the teaching team and other students to edit and comment on them. We found that the tangible (cards), game, role playing and sharing aspects of this method led to a much larger amount of interaction and discussion between student groups and between students and the teaching team, than we have achieved using our traditional teaching methods, while taking no more time on the part of the teaching staff. The quality of the resulting interaction themes indicates that this method fosters development of observational skills.In the paper we describe the motivations, method and results in full. We also describe the research context in which we collected the videotape data, and how this method relates to state of the art research methods in interaction design for ubiquitous computing technology.

A criminological analysis : using real-time monitoring to gather data on online predators

The Internet presents a constantly evolving frontier for criminology and policing, especially in relation to online predators – paedophiles operating within the Internet for safer access to children, child pornography and networking opportunities with other online predators. The goals of this qualitative study are to undertake behavioural research – identify personality types and archetypes of online predators and compare and contrast them with behavioural profiles and other psychological research on offline paedophiles and sex offenders. It is also an endeavour to gather intelligence on the technological utilisation of online predators and conduct observational research on the social structures of online predator communities. These goals were achieved through the covert monitoring and logging of public activity within four Internet Relay Chat(rooms) (IRC) themed around child sexual abuse and which were located on the Undernet network. Five days of monitoring was conducted on these four chatrooms between Wednesday 1 to Sunday 5 April 2009; this raw data was collated and analysed. The analysis identified four personality types – the gentleman predator, the sadist, the businessman and the pretender – and eight archetypes consisting of the groomers, dealers, negotiators, roleplayers, networkers, chat requestors, posters and travellers. The characteristics and traits of these personality types and archetypes, which were extracted from the literature dealing with offline paedophiles and sex offenders, are detailed and contrasted against the online sexual predators identified within the chatrooms, revealing many similarities and interesting differences particularly with the businessman and pretender personality types. These personality types and archetypes were illustrated by selecting users who displayed the appropriate characteristics and tracking them through the four chatrooms, revealing intelligence data on the use of proxies servers – especially via the Tor software – and other security strategies such as Undernet’s host masking service. Name and age changes, which is used as a potential sexual grooming tactic was also revealed through the use of Analyst’s Notebook software and information on ISP information revealed the likelihood that many online predators were not using any safety mechanism and relying on the anonymity of the Internet. The activities of these online predators were analysed, especially in regards to child sexual grooming and the ‘posting’ of child pornography, which revealed a few of the methods in which online predators utilised new Internet technologies to sexually groom and abuse children – using technologies such as instant messengers, webcams and microphones – as well as store and disseminate illegal materials on image sharing websites and peer-to-peer software such as Gigatribe. Analysis of the social structures of the chatrooms was also carried out and the community functions and characteristics of each chatroom explored. The findings of this research have indicated several opportunities for further research. As a result of this research, recommendations are given on policy, prevention and response strategies with regards to online predators.

An observational study of how objects support engineering design thinking and communication : implications for the design of tangible media

There has been an increasing interest in objects within the HCI field particularly with a view to designing tangible interfaces. However, little is known about how people make sense of objects and how objects support thinking. This paper presents a study of groups of engineers using physical objects to prototype designs, and articulates the roles that physical objects play in supporting their design thinking and communications. The study finds that design thinking is heavily dependent upon physical objects, that designers are active and opportunistic in seeking out physical props and that the interpretation and use of an object depends heavily on the activity. The paper discusses the trade-offs that designers make between speed and accuracy of models, and specificity and generality in choice of representations. Implications for design of tangible interfaces are discussed.

Outcomes following operative and non-operative management of humeral midshaft fractures: a prospective, observational cohort study of 47 patients

Background Although the non-operative management of closed humeral midshaft fractures has been advocated for years, the increasing popularity of operative intervention has left the optimal treatment choice unclear. Objective To compare the outcomes of operative and non-operative treatment of traumatic closed humeral midshaft fractures in adult patients. Methods A multicentre prospective comparative cohort study across 20 centres was conducted. Patients with AO type 12 A2, A3 and B2 fractures were treated with a functional brace or a retrograde-inserted unreamed humeral nail. Follow-up measurements were taken at 6, 12 and 52 weeks after the injury. The primary outcome was fracture healing after 1 year. Secondary outcomes included sub-items of the Constant score, general patient satisfaction, complications and cost-effectiveness parameters. Functions of the uninjured extremity were used as reference parameters. Intention-to-treat analysis was applied with the use of t-tests, Fisher’s exact tests, Mann–Whitney U-tests and adjusted analysis of variance (ANOVA). Results Forty-seven patients were included. The patient sample consisted of 23 women and 24 men, with a mean age of 52.7 years (range 17–86 years). Of the 47 cases, 14 were treated non-operatively and 33 operatively. The follow-up rate at 1 year was 81%. After 1 year, 11 fractures (100%) healed in the non-operative group and at least 24 fractures (≥89%) healed in the operative group [1 non-union patient (4%) and no data for 2 patients (7%)]. There were no significant differences in pain, range of motion (ROM) of the shoulder and elbow, and return to work after 6 weeks, 12 weeks and 1 year. Although operatively treated patients showed significantly greater shoulder abduction strength (p = 0.036), elbow flexion strength (p = 0.021), functional hand positioning (p = 0.008) and return to recreational activities (p = 0.043) after 6 weeks, no statistically significant differences existed in any outcome measure at the 1-year follow-up. Conclusions Our findings indicate that the non-operative management of humeral midshaft fractures can be expected to have similar functional outcomes and patient satisfaction at 1 year, despite an early benefit to operative treatment. If no radiological evidence of fracture healing exists in non-operatively treated patients during early follow-up, a switch to surgical treatment results in good functional outcomes and patient satisfaction. Keywords: Humeral shaft fracture, Non-operative treatment, Functional brace, Operative treatment, Unreamed humeral nail (UHN), Prospective, Cohort study