Probabilistic Inference in Credal Networks: New Complexity Results

Credal networks are graph-based statistical models whose parameters take values in a set, instead of being sharply specified as in traditional statistical models (e.g., Bayesian networks). The computational complexity of inferences on such models depends on the irrelevance/independence concept adopted. In this paper, we study inferential complexity under the concepts of epistemic irrelevance and strong independence. We show that inferences under strong independence are NP-hard even in trees with binary variables except for a single ternary one. We prove that under epistemic irrelevance the polynomial-time complexity of inferences in credal trees is not likely to extend to more general models (e.g., singly connected topologies). These results clearly distinguish networks that admit efficient inferences and those where inferences are most likely hard, and settle several open questions regarding their computational complexity. We show that these results remain valid even if we disallow the use of zero probabilities. We also show that the computation of bounds on the probability of the future state in a hidden Markov model is the same whether we assume epistemic irrelevance or strong independence, and we prove an analogous result for inference in Naive Bayes structures. These inferential equivalences are important for practitioners, as hidden Markov models and Naive Bayes networks are used in real applications of imprecise probability.

New Complexity Results for MAP in Bayesian Networks

This paper presents new results for the (partial) maximum a posteriori (MAP) problem in Bayesian networks, which is the problem of querying the most probable state configuration of some of the network variables given evidence. It is demonstrated that the problem remains hard even in networks with very simple topology, such as binary polytrees and simple trees (including the Naive Bayes structure), which extends previous complexity results. Furthermore, a Fully Polynomial Time Approximation Scheme for MAP in networks with bounded treewidth and bounded number of states per variable is developed. Approximation schemes were thought to be impossible, but here it is shown otherwise under the assumptions just mentioned, which are adopted in most applications.

New Results for the MAP Problem in Bayesian Networks

This paper presents new results for the (partial) maximum a posteriori (MAP) problem in Bayesian networks, which is the problem of querying the most probable state configuration of some of the network variables given evidence. First, it is demonstrated that the problem remains hard even in networks with very simple topology, such as binary polytrees and simple trees (including the Naive Bayes structure). Such proofs extend previous complexity results for the problem. Inapproximability results are also derived in the case of trees if the number of states per variable is not bounded. Although the problem is shown to be hard and inapproximable even in very simple scenarios, a new exact algorithm is described that is empirically fast in networks of bounded treewidth and bounded number of states per variable. The same algorithm is used as basis of a Fully Polynomial Time Approximation Scheme for MAP under such assumptions. Approximation schemes were generally thought to be impossible for this problem, but we show otherwise for classes of networks that are important in practice. The algorithms are extensively tested using some well-known networks as well as random generated cases to show their effectiveness.

Modelo de data mining para detecção de tumores em exames de rastreio

Dissertação para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Informática

Influence des facteurs émotionnels sur la résistance au changement dans les organisations

Mémoire numérisé par la Division de la gestion de documents et des archives de l'Université de Montréal

Improving Multiclass Text Classification with the Support Vector Machine

We compare Naive Bayes and Support Vector Machines on the task of multiclass text classification. Using a variety of approaches to combine the underlying binary classifiers, we find that SVMs substantially outperform Naive Bayes. We present full multiclass results on two well-known text data sets, including the lowest error to date on both data sets. We develop a new indicator of binary performance to show that the SVM's lower multiclass error is a result of its improved binary performance. Furthermore, we demonstrate and explore the surprising result that one-vs-all classification performs favorably compared to other approaches even though it has no error-correcting properties.

Single trial BCI operation via Wackermann parameters

Accurate single trial P300 classification lends itself to fast and accurate control of Brain Computer Interfaces (BCIs). Highly accurate classification of single trial P300 ERPs is achieved by characterizing the EEG via corresponding stationary and time-varying Wackermann parameters. Subsets of maximally discriminating parameters are then selected using the Network Clustering feature selection algorithm and classified with Naive-Bayes and Linear Discriminant Analysis classifiers. Hence the method is assessed on two different data-sets from BCI competitions and is shown to produce accuracies of between approximately 70% and 85%. This is promising for the use of Wackermann parameters as features in the classification of single-trial ERP responses.

Distributed classification for pocket data mining

Distributed and collaborative data stream mining in a mobile computing environment is referred to as Pocket Data Mining PDM. Large amounts of available data streams to which smart phones can subscribe to or sense, coupled with the increasing computational power of handheld devices motivates the development of PDM as a decision making system. This emerging area of study has shown to be feasible in an earlier study using technological enablers of mobile software agents and stream mining techniques [1]. A typical PDM process would start by having mobile agents roam the network to discover relevant data streams and resources. Then other (mobile) agents encapsulating stream mining techniques visit the relevant nodes in the network in order to build evolving data mining models. Finally, a third type of mobile agents roam the network consulting the mining agents for a final collaborative decision, when required by one or more users. In this paper, we propose the use of distributed Hoeffding trees and Naive Bayes classifers in the PDM framework over vertically partitioned data streams. Mobile policing, health monitoring and stock market analysis are among the possible applications of PDM. An extensive experimental study is reported showing the effectiveness of the collaborative data mining with the two classifers.

Integrated visual vocabulary in latent Dirichlet allocation-based scene classification for IKONOS image

Scene classification based on latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA) is a more general modeling method known as a bag of visual words, in which the construction of a visual vocabulary is a crucial quantization process to ensure success of the classification. A framework is developed using the following new aspects: Gaussian mixture clustering for the quantization process, the use of an integrated visual vocabulary (IVV), which is built as the union of all centroids obtained from the separate quantization process of each class, and the usage of some features, including edge orientation histogram, CIELab color moments, and gray-level co-occurrence matrix (GLCM). The experiments are conducted on IKONOS images with six semantic classes (tree, grassland, residential, commercial/industrial, road, and water). The results show that the use of an IVV increases the overall accuracy (OA) by 11 to 12% and 6% when it is implemented on the selected and all features, respectively. The selected features of CIELab color moments and GLCM provide a better OA than the implementation over CIELab color moment or GLCM as individuals. The latter increases the OA by only ∼2 to 3%. Moreover, the results show that the OA of LDA outperforms the OA of C4.5 and naive Bayes tree by ∼20%. © 2014 Society of Photo-Optical Instrumentation Engineers (SPIE) [DOI: 10.1117/1.JRS.8.083690]

On the influence of imputation in classification: practical issues

The substitution of missing values, also called imputation, is an important data preparation task for many domains. Ideally, the substitution of missing values should not insert biases into the dataset. This aspect has been usually assessed by some measures of the prediction capability of imputation methods. Such measures assume the simulation of missing entries for some attributes whose values are actually known. These artificially missing values are imputed and then compared with the original values. Although this evaluation is useful, it does not allow the influence of imputed values in the ultimate modelling task (e.g. in classification) to be inferred. We argue that imputation cannot be properly evaluated apart from the modelling task. Thus, alternative approaches are needed. This article elaborates on the influence of imputed values in classification. In particular, a practical procedure for estimating the inserted bias is described. As an additional contribution, we have used such a procedure to empirically illustrate the performance of three imputation methods (majority, naive Bayes and Bayesian networks) in three datasets. Three classifiers (decision tree, naive Bayes and nearest neighbours) have been used as modelling tools in our experiments. The achieved results illustrate a variety of situations that can take place in the data preparation practice.

Um assistente de feedback para o serviço de filtragem do software direto

Este trabalho descreve a especificação e implementação do protótipo Assistente de Feedback que ajuda os usuários a ajustarem os parâmetros do serviço de filtragem de mensagens vindas do correio eletrônico de sistemas como o Direto. O Assistente de Feedback é instalado no computador do usuário do Direto para monitorar suas preferências representadas pelas ações aplicadas nas mensagens do correio eletrônico. O trabalho apresenta, ainda, uma revisão bibliográfica sobre os conceitos gerais de probabilidades, redes Bayesianas e classificadores. Procura-se descrever as características gerais dos classificadores, em especial o Naive Bayes, sua lógica e seu desempenho comparado a outros classificadores. São abordados, também, conceitos relacionados ao modelo de perfil de usuário e o ambiente Direto. O Naive Bayes torna-se atraente para ser utilizado no Assistente de Feedback por apresentar bom desempenho sobre os demais classificadores e por ser eficiente na predição, quando os atributos são independentes entre si. O Assistente de Feedback utiliza um classificador Naive Bayes para predizer as preferências por intermédio das ações do usuário. Utiliza, também, pesos que representarão a satisfação do usuário para os termos extraídos do corpo da mensagem. Esses pesos são associados às ações do usuário para estimar os termos mais interessantes e menos interessantes, pelo valor de suas médias finais. Quando o usuário desejar alterar os filtros de mensagens do Direto, ele solicita ao Assistente de Feedback sugestões para possíveis exclusões dos termos menos interessantes e as possíveis inclusões dos termos mais interessantes. O protótipo é testado utilizando dois métodos de avaliação para medir o grau de precisão e o desempenho do Assistente de Feedback. Os resultados obtidos na avaliação de precisão apresentam valores satisfatórios, considerando o uso de cinco classes pelo classificador do Assistente de Feedback. Os resultados dos testes de desempenho permitem observar que, se forem utilizadas máquinas com configurações mais atualizadas, os usuários conseguirão receber sugestões com tempo de respostas mais toleráveis.

Redes bayesianas aplicadas à modelagem de fraudes em cartão de crédito

Modelos para detecção de fraude são utilizados para identificar se uma transação é legítima ou fraudulenta com base em informações cadastrais e transacionais. A técnica proposta no estudo apresentado, nesta dissertação, consiste na de Redes Bayesianas (RB); seus resultados foram comparados à técnica de Regressão Logística (RL), amplamente utilizada pelo mercado. As Redes Bayesianas avaliadas foram os classificadores bayesianos, com a estrutura Naive Bayes. As estruturas das redes bayesianas foram obtidas a partir de dados reais, fornecidos por uma instituição financeira. A base de dados foi separada em amostras de desenvolvimento e validação por cross validation com dez partições. Naive Bayes foram os classificadores escolhidos devido à simplicidade e a sua eficiência. O desempenho do modelo foi avaliado levando-se em conta a matriz de confusão e a área abaixo da curva ROC. As análises dos modelos revelaram desempenho, levemente, superior da regressão logística quando comparado aos classificadores bayesianos. A regressão logística foi escolhida como modelo mais adequado por ter apresentado melhor desempenho na previsão das operações fraudulentas, em relação à matriz de confusão. Baseada na área abaixo da curva ROC, a regressão logística demonstrou maior habilidade em discriminar as operações que estão sendo classificadas corretamente, daquelas que não estão.

An investigation of Hebbian phase sequences as assembly graphs

Hebb proposed that synapses between neurons that fire synchronously are strengthened, forming cell assemblies and phase sequences. The former, on a shorter scale, are ensembles of synchronized cells that function transiently as a closed processing system; the latter, on a larger scale, correspond to the sequential activation of cell assemblies able to represent percepts and behaviors. Nowadays, the recording of large neuronal populations allows for the detection of multiple cell assemblies. Within Hebb's theory, the next logical step is the analysis of phase sequences. Here we detected phase sequences as consecutive assembly activation patterns, and then analyzed their graph attributes in relation to behavior. We investigated action potentials recorded from the adult rat hippocampus and neocortex before, during and after novel object exploration (experimental periods). Within assembly graphs, each assembly corresponded to a node, and each edge corresponded to the temporal sequence of consecutive node activations. The sum of all assembly activations was proportional to firing rates, but the activity of individual assemblies was not. Assembly repertoire was stable across experimental periods, suggesting that novel experience does not create new assemblies in the adult rat. Assembly graph attributes, on the other hand, varied significantly across behavioral states and experimental periods, and were separable enough to correctly classify experimental periods (Naïve Bayes classifier; maximum AUROCs ranging from 0.55 to 0.99) and behavioral states (waking, slow wave sleep, and rapid eye movement sleep; maximum AUROCs ranging from 0.64 to 0.98). Our findings agree with Hebb's view that assemblies correspond to primitive building blocks of representation, nearly unchanged in the adult, while phase sequences are labile across behavioral states and change after novel experience. The results are compatible with a role for phase sequences in behavior and cognition.

Aquatic weed automatic classification using machine learning techniques

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Uma Análise de métodos de distriubuição de atributos em comitês de classificadores

The objective of the researches in artificial intelligence is to qualify the computer to execute functions that are performed by humans using knowledge and reasoning. This work was developed in the area of machine learning, that it s the study branch of artificial intelligence, being related to the project and development of algorithms and techniques capable to allow the computational learning. The objective of this work is analyzing a feature selection method for ensemble systems. The proposed method is inserted into the filter approach of feature selection method, it s using the variance and Spearman correlation to rank the feature and using the reward and punishment strategies to measure the feature importance for the identification of the classes. For each ensemble, several different configuration were used, which varied from hybrid (homogeneous) to non-hybrid (heterogeneous) structures of ensemble. They were submitted to five combining methods (voting, sum, sum weight, multiLayer Perceptron and naïve Bayes) which were applied in six distinct database (real and artificial). The classifiers applied during the experiments were k- nearest neighbor, multiLayer Perceptron, naïve Bayes and decision tree. Finally, the performance of ensemble was analyzed comparatively, using none feature selection method, using a filter approach (original) feature selection method and the proposed method. To do this comparison, a statistical test was applied, which demonstrate that there was a significant improvement in the precision of the ensembles