Development Accounting with Intermediate Goods

Do intermediate goods help explain relative and aggregate productivity differences across countries? Three observations suggest they do: (i) intermediates are relatively expensive in poor countries; (ii) goods industries demand intermediates more intensively than service industries; (iii) goods industries are more prominent intermediate suppliers in poor countries. I build a standard multi-sector growth model accommodating these features to show that inefficient intermediate production strongly depresses aggregate labor productivity and increases the price ratio of final goods to services. Applying the model to data, low and high income countries in fact reveal similar relative efficiency levels between goods and services despite clear differences in relative sectoral labor productivity. Moreover, the main empirical exercise suggests that poorer countries are substantially less efficient at producing intermediate relative to final goods and services. Closing the cross-country efficiency gap in intermediate input production would strongly narrow the aggregate labor productivity difference across countries as well as turn final goods in poorer countries relatively cheap compared to services.

Soporte geoespacial para modelos de distribución de especies (I): generalización del mapa de vegetación del Montseny apoyada en información de imágenes de satélite

Los mapas de vegetación son a menudo utilizados como proxis de una estratificación de hábitats para generar distribuciones geográficas contínuas de organismos a partir de datos discretos mediante modelos multi-variantes. Sin embargo, los mapas de vegetación suelen ser poco apropiados para ser directamente aplicados a este fin, pues sus categorías no se concibieron con la intención de corresponder a tipos de hábitat. En este artículo presentamos y aplicamos el método de Agrupamiento por Doble Criterio para generalizar un mapa de vegetación extraordinariamente detallado (350 clases) del Parque Natural del Montseny (Cataluña) en categorías que mantienen la coherencia tanto desde el punto de vista estructural (a través de una matriz de disimilaridad espectral calculada mediante una imágen del satélite SPOT-5) como en términos de vegetación (gracias a una matriz de disimilaridad calculada mediante propiedades de vegetación deducidas de la leyenda jerárquica del mapa). El método simplifica de 114 a 18 clases el 67% del área de estudio. Añadiendo otras agregaciones más triviales basadas exclusivamente en criterios de cubierta de suelo, el 73% del área de estudio pasa de 167 a 25 categorías. Como valor añadido, el método identifica el 10% de los polígonos originales como anómalos (a partir de comparar las propiedades espectrales de cada polígono con el resto de los de su clases), lo que implica cambios en la cubierta entre las fechas del soporte utilizado para generar el mapa original y la imagen de satélite, o errores en la producción de éste.

Addressing non-communicable diseases in the Seychelles: towards a comprehensive plan of action.

This article reviews the different steps taken during the past 20 years for the prevention and control of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in the Seychelles. National surveys revealed high levels of several cardiovascular risk factors and prompted an organized response, starting with the creation of an NCD unit in the Ministry of Health. Information campaigns and nationwide activities raised awareness and rallied increasingly broad and high-level support. Significant policy was developed including comprehensive tobacco legislation and a School Nutrition Policy that bans soft drinks in schools. NCD guidelines were developed and specialized 'NCD nurses' were trained to complement doctors in district health centers. Decreasing smoking prevalence is evidence of success, but the raising so-called diabesity epidemic calls for an integrated multi-sector policy to mould an environment conducive to healthy behaviors. Essential components of these efforts include: effective surveillance mechanisms supplemented by focused research; generating broad interest and consensus; mobilizing leadership and commitment at all levels; involving local and international expertise; building on existing efforts; and seeking integrated, multi-disciplinary and multi-sector approaches.

Firms, destinations, and aggregate fluctuations

This paper uses a database covering the universe of French firms for the period 1990-2007 to provide a forensic account of the role of individual firms in generating aggregatefluctuations. We set up a simple multi-sector model of heterogeneous firms selling tomultiple markets to motivate a theoretically-founded decomposition of firms' annualsales growth rate into different components. We find that the firm-specific componentcontributes substantially to aggregate sales volatility, mattering about as much as thecomponents capturing shocks that are common across firms within a sector or country.We then decompose the firm-specific component to provide evidence on two mechanismsthat generate aggregate fluctuations from microeconomic shocks highlighted in the recentliterature: (i) when the firm size distribution is fat-tailed, idiosyncratic shocks tolarge firms directly contribute to aggregate fluctuations; and (ii) aggregate fluctuationscan arise from idiosyncratic shocks due to input-output linkages across the economy.Firm linkages are approximately three times as important as the direct effect of firmshocks in driving aggregate fluctuations.

Demand-based structural change and balanced economic growth

[eng] We analyze the equilibrium of a multi-sector exogenous growth model where the introduction of minimum consumption requirements drives structural change. We show that equilibrium dynamics simultaneously exhibt structural change and balanced growth of aggregate variables as is observed in US when the initial intensity of minimum consumption requirements is sufficiently small. This intensity is measured by the ratio between the aggregate value of the minimum consumption requirements and GDP and, therefore, it is inversely related with the level of economic development. Initially rich economies benefit from an initially low intensity of the minimum consumption requirements and, as a consequence, these economies end up exhibiting balanced growth of aggregate variables, while there is structural change. In contrast, initially poor economies suffer from an initially large intensity of the minimum consumption requirements, which makes the growth of the aggregate variables unbalanced during a very large period. These economies may never exhibit simultaneously balanced growth of aggregate variables and structural change.

The Persistence of Finnish Equity Fund Performance

Tutkimuksen tavoitteena on selvittää, esiintyykö suomeen sijoittavilla osakerahastoilla menestyksen pysyvyyttä. Tutkimusaineisto koostuu kaikista suomalaisista osakerahastoista, jotka toimivat ajanjaksolla 15.1.1998-13.1.2005. Aineisto on vapaa selviytymisvinoumasta. Suorituskyvyn mittareina käytetään CAPM-alfaa sekä kolmi- ja nelifaktori-alfaa. Empiirisessä osassa osakerahastojen menestyksen pysyvyyttä testataan Spearmanin järjestyskorrelaatiotestillä. Evidenssi menestyksen pysyvyydestä jäi vähäiseksi, vaikkakin sitä esiintyi satunnaisesti kaikilla menestysmittareilla joillakin ranking- ja sijoitusperiodin yhdistelmillä. CAPM-alfalla tarkasteltuna tilastollisesti merkitsevää menestyksen pysyvyyttä esiintyi selvästi useammin kuin muilla menestysmittareilla. Tulokset tukevat viimeaikaisia kansainvälisiä tutkimuksia, joiden mukaan menestyksen pysyvyys riippuu usein mittaustavasta. Menestysmittareina käytettyjen regressiomallien merkitsevyystestit osoittavat multifaktorimallien selittävän osakerahastojen tuottoja CAPM:a paremmin. Lisätyt muuttujat parantavat merkittävästi CAPM:n selitysvoimaa.

Demand-based structural change and balanced economic growth

[eng] We analyze the equilibrium of a multi-sector exogenous growth model where the introduction of minimum consumption requirements drives structural change. We show that equilibrium dynamics simultaneously exhibt structural change and balanced growth of aggregate variables as is observed in US when the initial intensity of minimum consumption requirements is sufficiently small. This intensity is measured by the ratio between the aggregate value of the minimum consumption requirements and GDP and, therefore, it is inversely related with the level of economic development. Initially rich economies benefit from an initially low intensity of the minimum consumption requirements and, as a consequence, these economies end up exhibiting balanced growth of aggregate variables, while there is structural change. In contrast, initially poor economies suffer from an initially large intensity of the minimum consumption requirements, which makes the growth of the aggregate variables unbalanced during a very large period. These economies may never exhibit simultaneously balanced growth of aggregate variables and structural change.

Demand-based structural change and balanced economic growth

[eng] We analyze the equilibrium of a multi-sector exogenous growth model where the introduction of minimum consumption requirements drives structural change. We show that equilibrium dynamics simultaneously exhibt structural change and balanced growth of aggregate variables as is observed in US when the initial intensity of minimum consumption requirements is sufficiently small. This intensity is measured by the ratio between the aggregate value of the minimum consumption requirements and GDP and, therefore, it is inversely related with the level of economic development. Initially rich economies benefit from an initially low intensity of the minimum consumption requirements and, as a consequence, these economies end up exhibiting balanced growth of aggregate variables, while there is structural change. In contrast, initially poor economies suffer from an initially large intensity of the minimum consumption requirements, which makes the growth of the aggregate variables unbalanced during a very large period. These economies may never exhibit simultaneously balanced growth of aggregate variables and structural change.

Monikanavaisuuden hyödyt ja haitat - tutkimus monikanavaisuudesta palveluntarjoajan ja asiakkaan näkökulmasta

Tämän tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli selvittää, voidaanko asiakkaan ja palveluntarjoajan odotukset yhdistää muodostettaessa palveluntarjoajan monikanavamallia. Monikanavaisuus tuo asiakkaalle mahdollisuuksia ajasta ja paikasta riippumattomaan asiointiin. Asiakkaan näkökulmasta tämä tarkoittaa usein sitä, että hänen oppimansa asiointitapa muuttuu. Asiakas kokee haittana sen, että joutuu panostamaan uuden asiointitavan opettelemiseen ja odottaa tämän muutoksen tuovan hänelle hyötyjä. Monikanavaisuuden hyödyt asiakkaalle punnitaan tässä muutostilanteessa. Palveluntarjoaja odottaa monikanavamallin tuovan kustannussäästöjä, sillä kanavavalinnat ovat keino kehittää asiakkuuksia ja vaikuttaa yrityksen kannattavuuteen pitkällä aikajänteellä. Monikanavamallin toteuttaminen vaatii palveluntarjoajalta alkuvaiheessa resursseja, investointeja ja halutun muutoksen tavoitteellista johtamista. Tutkittavat asiakkaat valittiin Suomen Posti Oyj:n Yritykset ja yritykset –asiakassegmentistä. Tutkimuksessa ei löytynyt asiakaskohtaisia eroja asiakkaiden odotuksista palveluntarjoajien monikanavamalleihin, mutta hyötyodotusten suhteen tunnistettiin kolme erilaista asiakastyyppiä: kustannussäästöjä odottavat hintaorientoituneet asiakkaat, palvelun entistä parempaa sujumista odottavat palveluorientoituneet asiakkaat ja oman valinnanvapautensa merkitystä painottavat asiakassuhdeorientoituneet asiakkaat. Palveluntarjoajan tulee pystyä viestimään ja argumentoimaan asiointitavan muutoksesta kullekin asiakkaalle merkityksellisellä tavalla. Teorian ja empirian pohjalta voidaan sanoa, että asiakkaan ja palveluntarjoajan odotukset voidaan yhdistää muodostettaessa palveluntarjoajan monikanavamallia. Tämä edellyttää, että palveluntarjoaja tuntee asiakkaansa niin hyvin, että tietää millaiset eri asiakkaiden hyötyodotukset ovat.

Biomarkers of Host Response Predict Primary End-Point Radiological Pneumonia in Tanzanian Children with Clinical Pneumonia: A Prospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Diagnosing pediatric pneumonia is challenging in low-resource settings. The World Health Organization (WHO) has defined primary end-point radiological pneumonia for use in epidemiological and vaccine studies. However, radiography requires expertise and is often inaccessible. We hypothesized that plasma biomarkers of inflammation and endothelial activation may be useful surrogates for end-point pneumonia, and may provide insight into its biological significance. METHODS: We studied children with WHO-defined clinical pneumonia (n = 155) within a prospective cohort of 1,005 consecutive febrile children presenting to Tanzanian outpatient clinics. Based on x-ray findings, participants were categorized as primary end-point pneumonia (n = 30), other infiltrates (n = 31), or normal chest x-ray (n = 94). Plasma levels of 7 host response biomarkers at presentation were measured by ELISA. Associations between biomarker levels and radiological findings were assessed by Kruskal-Wallis test and multivariable logistic regression. Biomarker ability to predict radiological findings was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis and Classification and Regression Tree analysis. RESULTS: Compared to children with normal x-ray, children with end-point pneumonia had significantly higher C-reactive protein, procalcitonin and Chitinase 3-like-1, while those with other infiltrates had elevated procalcitonin and von Willebrand Factor and decreased soluble Tie-2 and endoglin. Clinical variables were not predictive of radiological findings. Classification and Regression Tree analysis generated multi-marker models with improved performance over single markers for discriminating between groups. A model based on C-reactive protein and Chitinase 3-like-1 discriminated between end-point pneumonia and non-end-point pneumonia with 93.3% sensitivity (95% confidence interval 76.5-98.8), 80.8% specificity (72.6-87.1), positive likelihood ratio 4.9 (3.4-7.1), negative likelihood ratio 0.083 (0.022-0.32), and misclassification rate 0.20 (standard error 0.038). CONCLUSIONS: In Tanzanian children with WHO-defined clinical pneumonia, combinations of host biomarkers distinguished between end-point pneumonia, other infiltrates, and normal chest x-ray, whereas clinical variables did not. These findings generate pathophysiological hypotheses and may have potential research and clinical utility.

An experimental and theoretical study of multiphase flow in a circulating fluidized bed

A systematic averaging procedure has been derived in order to obtain an integral form of conservation equations for dispersed multiphase flow, especially applicable to fluidized beds. A similar averaging method is applied further to formulate macroscopic integral equations, which can be used in one-dimensional and macroscopic multi dimensional models. Circulating fluid bed hydrodynamics has been studied experimentally and both macroscopic and microscopic flow profiles have been measured in a cold model. As an application of the theory, the one dimensional model has been used to study mass and momentum conservation of gas and solid in a circulating fluid bed. Axial solid mixing has also been modelled by the one dimensional model and mixing parameters have been evaluated.

Asiakkuudenhallinnan kehittäminen

Opinnäytetyön toimeksiantaja on suomalainen maatalouskonekaupan moniosaaja, jonka pääasiallisiin liiketoimiin kuuluu maatalouskoneiden maahantuonti, niiden myynti edelleen Suomessa sekä kannattavan rehuntekoketjun tarjoaminen asiakkailleen periaatteella ”nurmesta maitolasiin”. Työn tavoitteena oli avustaa perheyritystä sen asiakashallintaohjelmiston käyttöön ottamisessa. Työn ensimmäinen tavoite oli määrittää yrityksen asiakkuudenhallintaohjelmiston vaatimukset. Toinen tavoite oli selvittää yrityksen asiakashallinnan tämänhetkinen tila. Kolmas tavoite oli selvittää jo nykyisin käytössä olevan ohjelmiston taipuisuutta ja sen soveltuvuutta asiakkuudenhallintaohjelmistona. Työ on toteutettu kvalitatiivista tutkimusta apuna käyttäen, ja analyysiaineisto on kerätty sekundaarisista lähteistä, lähinnä kirjallisista teoksista sekä internetistä. Yrityksen henkilöstö on ollut sisäisen tiedon lähteenä. Opinnäytetyö auttaa toimeksiantajayritystä CRM – projektin tavoitteiden, mahdollisuuksien sekä mahdollisten hidasteiden selvittämisessä. Työn tuloksien avulla projektijohto voi määrittää ohjelmiston CRM – osuuden käyttöönottoon sekä aikatauluun vaadittavat resurssit.

Influence of process parameters on the color and texture of passion fruit albedo preserved in syrup

The industrialization of passion fruit in the form of juice produces considerable amounts of residue that could be used as food. The objective of the present study was to determine the effects of the volume of passion fruit juice added to the syrup and the cooking time on the color and texture of passion fruit albedo preserved in syrup. Multi-linear models were well fit to describe the value for a* (for the albedo) the values for b* (for the albedo and syrup), which exhibited high correlation coefficients of 98%, 84%, and 88%, respectively. The volume of passion fruit juice added and the cooking time of the albedos in the syrup, involved in the processing of passion fruit albedo preserves in syrup, significantly affected color analyses. The texture was not affected by the parameters studied. Therefore, the use of larger volumes of passion fruit juice and longer cooking time is recommended for the production of passion fruit albedo preserves in syrup to achieve the characteristic yellow color of the fruit.

Assessing the dynamics of terms of trade in a model of cumulative causation and structural change

ABSTRACT The motivation for this paper stems from the steady decline in the share of consumer expenditures on goods produced in the global south, coupled with the (empirically ambiguous) Singer/Prebisch hypothesis that this can be explained by a secular decline in the southern terms of trade. Drawing on these sources of inspiration, the paper sets out to study the dynamics of the terms of trade using a multi-sector growth model based on the principle of cumulative causation. The upshot is a North-South model of growth and trade in which the evolution of the terms of trade depends on differential rates of productivity growth in different sectors of the economy - and in which terms of trade dynamics may not be the best guide as to whether or not there is an uneven development problem.

Passive Solar Building Design Using Genetic Programming

Passive solar building design is the process of designing a building while considering sunlight exposure for receiving heat in winter and rejecting heat in summer. The main goal of a passive solar building design is to remove or reduce the need of mechanical and electrical systems for cooling and heating, and therefore saving energy costs and reducing environmental impact. This research will use evolutionary computation to design passive solar buildings. Evolutionary design is used in many research projects to build 3D models for structures automatically. In this research, we use a mixture of split grammar and string-rewriting for generating new 3D structures. To evaluate energy costs, the EnergyPlus system is used. This is a comprehensive building energy simulation system, which will be used alongside the genetic programming system. In addition, genetic programming will also consider other design and geometry characteristics of the building as search objectives, for example, window placement, building shape, size, and complexity. In passive solar designs, reducing energy that is needed for cooling and heating are two objectives of interest. Experiments show that smaller buildings with no windows and skylights are the most energy efficient models. Window heat gain is another objective used to encourage models to have windows. In addition, window and volume based objectives are tried. To examine the impact of environment on designs, experiments are run on five different geographic locations. Also, both single floor models and multi-floor models are examined in this research. According to the experiments, solutions from the experiments were consistent with respect to materials, sizes, and appearance, and satisfied problem constraints in all instances.