Generating rules with predicates, terms and variables from the pruned neural networks

Artificial neural networks (ANN) have demonstrated good predictive performance in a wide range of applications. They are, however, not considered sufficient for knowledge representation because of their inability to represent the reasoning process succinctly. This paper proposes a novel methodology Gyan that represents the knowledge of a trained network in the form of restricted first-order predicate rules. The empirical results demonstrate that an equivalent symbolic interpretation in the form of rules with predicates, terms and variables can be derived describing the overall behaviour of the trained ANN with improved comprehensibility while maintaining the accuracy and fidelity of the propositional rules.

Distribution profiles of key weather variables in Australian capital cities : implications for energy efficient building design

Local climate is a critical element in the design of energy efficient buildings. In this paper, ten years of historical weather data in Australia's eight capital cities were profiled and analysed to characterize the variations of climatic variables in Australia. The method of descriptive statistics was employed. Either the pattern of cumulative distribution and/or the profile of percentage distribution are presented. It was found that although weather variables vary with different locations, there is often a good, nearly linear relation between a weather variable and its cumulative percentage for the majority of middle part of the cumulative curves. By comparing the slopes of these distribution profiles, it may be possible to determine the relative range of changes of the particular weather variables for a given city. The implications of these distribution profiles of key weather variables on energy efficient building design are also discussed.

Motivational misalignment on an iconic infrastructure project

Aligning the motivation of contractors and consultants to perform better than ‘business-as-usual’ (BAU) on a construction project is a complex undertaking and the costs of failure are high as misalignment can compromise project outcomes. Despite the potential benefits of effective alignment, there is still little information about optimally designing procurement approaches that promote motivation towards ‘above BAU’ goals. The paper contributes to this knowledge gap by examining the negative drivers of motivation in a major construction project that, despite a wide range of performance enhancing incentives, failed to exceed BAU performance. The paper provides a case study of an iconic infrastructure project undertaken in Australia between 2002 and 2004. It is shown that incentives provided to contractors and consultants to achieve above BAU performance can be compromised by a range of negative motivation drivers including: • inequitable contractual risk allocation; • late involvement of key stakeholders; • inconsistency between contract intentions and relationship intentions; • inadequate price negotiation; • inconsistency between the project performance goals and incentive goals; •unfair and inflexible incentive performance measurement processes. Future quantitative research is planned to determine the generalisability of these results.

An identification of factors influencing police workplace motivation

Police work tasks are diverse and require the ability to take command, demonstrate leadership, make serious decisions and be self directed (Beck, 1999; Brunetto & Farr-Wharton, 2002; Howard, Donofrio & Boles, 2002). This work is usually performed in pairs or sometimes by an officer working alone. Operational police work is seldom performed under the watchful eyes of a supervisor and a great amount of reliance is placed on the high levels of motivation and professionalism of individual officers. Research has shown that highly motivated workers produce better outcomes (Whisenand & Rush, 1998; Herzberg, 2003). It is therefore important that Queensland police officers are highly motivated to provide a quality service to the Queensland community. This research aims to identify factors which motivate Queensland police to perform quality work. Researchers acknowledge that there is a lack of research and knowledge in regard to the factors which motivate police (Beck, 1999; Bragg, 1998; Howard, Donofrio & Boles, 2002; McHugh & Verner, 1998). The motivational factors were identified in regard to the demographic variables of; age, sex, rank, tenure and education. The model for this research is Herzberg’s two-factor theory of workplace motivation (1959). Herzberg found that there are two broad types of workplace motivational factors; those driven by a need to prevent loss or harm and those driven by a need to gain personal satisfaction or achievement. His study identified 16 basic sub-factors that operate in the workplace. The research utilised a questionnaire instrument based on the sub-factors identified by Herzberg (1959). The questionnaire format consists of an initial section which sought demographic information about the participant and is followed by 51 Likert scale questions. The instrument is an expanded version of an instrument previously used in doctoral studies to identify sources of police motivation (Holden, 1980; Chiou, 2004). The questionnaire was forwarded to approximately 960 police in the Brisbane, Metropolitan North Region. The data were analysed using Factor Analysis, MANOVAs, ANOVAs and multiple regression analysis to identify the key sources of police motivation and to determine the relationships between demographic variables such as: age, rank, educational level, tenure, generation cohort and motivational factors. A total of 484 officers responded to the questionnaire from the sample population of 960. Factor analysis revealed five broad Prime Motivational Factors that motivate police in their work. The Prime Motivational Factors are: Feeling Valued, Achievement, Workplace Relationships, the Work Itself and Pay and Conditions. The factor Feeling Valued highlighted the importance of positive supportive leaders in motivating officers. Many officers commented that supervisors who only provided negative feedback diminished their sense of feeling valued and were a key source of de-motivation. Officers also frequently commented that they were motivated by operational police work itself whilst demonstrating a strong sense of identity with their team and colleagues. The study showed a general need for acceptance by peers and an idealistic motivation to assist members of the community in need and protect victims of crime. Generational cohorts were not found to exert a significant influence on police motivation. The demographic variable with the single greatest influence on police motivation was tenure. Motivation levels were found to drop dramatically during the first two years of an officer’s service and generally not improve significantly until near retirement age. The findings of this research provide the foundation of a number of recommendations in regard to police retirement, training and work allocation that are aimed to improve police motivation levels. The five Prime Motivational Factor model developed in this study is recommended for use as a planning tool by police leaders to improve motivational and job-satisfaction components of police Service policies. The findings of this study also provide a better understanding of the current sources of police motivation. They are expected to have valuable application for Queensland police human resource management when considering policies and procedures in the areas of motivation, stress reduction and attracting suitable staff to specific areas of responsibility.

Motivational interviewing

Co-existing mental health and drug and alcohol problems occur frequently in primary care and clinical settings. Despite this, health professionals rarely receive training in how to detect, assess and formulate interventions for co-existing problems and few clinical guidelines exist. This Handbook provides an exciting and highly useful addition to this area. Leading clinicians from the UK, the US and Australia provide practical descriptions of assessments and interventions for co-existing problems. These will enable professionals working with co-existing problems to understand best practice and ensure that people with co-existing problems receive optimal treatment. A range of overarching approaches are covered, including: • working within a cognitive behavioural framework; • provision of consultation-liaison services, training and supervision; • individual, group and family interventions; and • working with rurally isolated populations. The contributors also provide detailed descriptions of assessments and treatments for a range of disorders when accompanied by drug and alcohol problems, including anxiety, depression, schizophrenia, bipolar disorder and learning difficulties. The Clinical Handbook of Co-existing Mental Health and Drug and Alcohol Problems will enhance clinicians’ confidence in working with people with co-existing problems. It will prove a valuable resource for all psychologists, psychiatrists, counsellors, social workers and all those working in both primary and secondary care health settings.

Important omitted spatial variables in safety models: Understanding contributing crash causes at intersections

Advances in safety research—trying to improve the collective understanding of motor vehicle crash causation—rests upon the pursuit of numerous lines of inquiry. The research community has focused on analytical methods development (negative binomial specifications, simultaneous equations, etc.), on better experimental designs (before-after studies, comparison sites, etc.), on improving exposure measures, and on model specification improvements (additive terms, non-linear relations, etc.). One might think of different lines of inquiry in terms of ‘low lying fruit’—areas of inquiry that might provide significant improvements in understanding crash causation. It is the contention of this research that omitted variable bias caused by the exclusion of important variables is an important line of inquiry in safety research. In particular, spatially related variables are often difficult to collect and omitted from crash models—but offer significant ability to better understand contributing factors to crashes. This study—believed to represent a unique contribution to the safety literature—develops and examines the role of a sizeable set of spatial variables in intersection crash occurrence. In addition to commonly considered traffic and geometric variables, examined spatial factors include local influences of weather, sun glare, proximity to drinking establishments, and proximity to schools. The results indicate that inclusion of these factors results in significant improvement in model explanatory power, and the results also generally agree with expectation. The research illuminates the importance of spatial variables in safety research and also the negative consequences of their omissions.

The use of ZIP and CART to model cryptosporidiosis in relation to climatic variables

This research assesses the potential impact of weekly weather variability on the incidence of cryptosporidiosis disease using time series zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) and classification and regression tree (CART) models. Data on weather variables, notified cryptosporidiosis cases and population size in Brisbane were supplied by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Queensland Department of Health, and Australian Bureau of Statistics, respectively. Both time series ZIP and CART models show a clear association between weather variables (maximum temperature, relative humidity, rainfall and wind speed) and cryptosporidiosis disease. The time series CART models indicated that, when weekly maximum temperature exceeded 31°C and relative humidity was less than 63%, the relative risk of cryptosporidiosis rose by 13.64 (expected morbidity: 39.4; 95% confidence interval: 30.9–47.9). These findings may have applications as a decision support tool in planning disease control and risk management programs for cryptosporidiosis disease.

Brief motivational interviewing for depression and anxiety

Motivational interviewing (MI)can be applied as a brief, low intensity (LI) intervention of 1-4 individualised sessions (typically 45-60 minutes in duration), including screening, assessment feedback, and psycho-education. MI is a client-centred, directive therapeutic style that enhances readiness for change by helping clients explore and resolve ambivalence (Miller and Rollnick 2002). A summary of the key components of brief MI interventions is provided in Table 16.1. There is a well-established evidence base for MI in the treatment of substance misuse (particularly alcohol misuse; Moyer et al. 2002), as well as a growing evidence for the use of MI in the treatment of other mental disorders (e.g. depression, PTSD, OCD), as well as suicidality and physical health problems (Hettema et al. 2005). Brief MI intervention can be delivered as a standalone treatment or as a motivational prelude to pharmacological and/or other psychological treatments (Hettema et al. 2005). MI has been used as an accompaniment to cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT) in the treatment of both depression and anxiety for resolving ambivalence about change and developing strategies for responding to resistance (e.g. treatment attendance, homework/medication compliance; Arkowitz et al. 2008a, 2008b). This chapter will describe how to apply brief MI interventions to the treatment of depression and anxiety as applied to the case of Megan (see Box 16.1) along with some of the challenges and potential solutions to applying MI in practice.

Motivational Interviewing changes the treatment trajectory of group Cognitive-Behavioural Therapy for anxiety

Anxiety disorders have been viewed as manifestations of broad underlying predisposing personality constructs such as neuroticism combined with more specific individual differences of unhelpful information processing styles. Given the high prevalence of anxiety and the significant impairment that it causes, there is an important need to continue to explore successful treatments for this disorder. Research indicates that there is still room for significantly improving attrition rates and treatment adherence. Traditionally Motivational Interviewing (MI) has been used to facilitate health behaviour change. Recently MI has been applied to psychotherapy and has been shown to improve the outcome of CBT. However, these studies have been limited to only considering pre- and post-treatment measures and neglected to consider when changes occur along the course of therapy. This leaves the unanswered question of what is the impact of pre-treatment MI on the treatment trajectory of therapy. This study provides preliminary research into answering this question by tracking changes on a weekly basis along the course of group CBT. Prior to group CBT, 40 individuals with a principal anxiety disorder diagnosis were randomly assigned to receive either 3 individual sessions of MI or placed on a waitlist control group. All participants then received the same dosage of 10 weekly 2 hour sessions of group CBT. Tracking treatment outcome trajectory over the course of CBT, the pre-treatment MI group, compared to the control group, experienced a greater improvement early on in the course of therapy in their symptom distress, interpersonal relationships and quality of life. This early advantage over the control group was then maintained throughout therapy. These results not only demonstrate the value of adding MI to CBT, but also highlight the immediacy of MI effects. Further research is needed to determine the robustness of these effects to inform clinical implications of how to best apply MI to improve treatment adherence to CBT for anxiety disorders.

Evaluation of financial incentives as a quality improvement strategy in the public hospital context : clinician attitudes, design variables, and economic costs

In 2008, a three-year pilot ‘pay for performance’ (P4P) program, known as ‘Clinical Practice Improvement Payment’ (CPIP) was introduced into Queensland Health (QHealth). QHealth is a large public health sector provider of acute, community, and public health services in Queensland, Australia. The organisation has recently embarked on a significant reform agenda including a review of existing funding arrangements (Duckett et al., 2008). Partly in response to this reform agenda, a casemix funding model has been implemented to reconnect health care funding with outcomes. CPIP was conceptualised as a performance-based scheme that rewarded quality with financial incentives. This is the first time such a scheme has been implemented into the public health sector in Australia with a focus on rewarding quality, and it is unique in that it has a large state-wide focus and includes 15 Districts. CPIP initially targeted five acute and community clinical areas including Mental Health, Discharge Medication, Emergency Department, Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease, and Stroke. The CPIP scheme was designed around key concepts including the identification of clinical indicators that met the set criteria of: high disease burden, a well defined single diagnostic group or intervention, significant variations in clinical outcomes and/or practices, a good evidence, and clinician control and support (Ward, Daniels, Walker & Duckett, 2007). This evaluative research targeted Phase One of implementation of the CPIP scheme from January 2008 to March 2009. A formative evaluation utilising a mixed methodology and complementarity analysis was undertaken. The research involved three research questions and aimed to determine the knowledge, understanding, and attitudes of clinicians; identify improvements to the design, administration, and monitoring of CPIP; and determine the financial and economic costs of the scheme. Three key studies were undertaken to ascertain responses to the key research questions. Firstly, a survey of clinicians was undertaken to examine levels of knowledge and understanding and their attitudes to the scheme. Secondly, the study sought to apply Statistical Process Control (SPC) to the process indicators to assess if this enhanced the scheme and a third study examined a simple economic cost analysis. The CPIP Survey of clinicians elicited 192 clinician respondents. Over 70% of these respondents were supportive of the continuation of the CPIP scheme. This finding was also supported by the results of a quantitative altitude survey that identified positive attitudes in 6 of the 7 domains-including impact, awareness and understanding and clinical relevance, all being scored positive across the combined respondent group. SPC as a trending tool may play an important role in the early identification of indicator weakness for the CPIP scheme. This evaluative research study supports a previously identified need in the literature for a phased introduction of Pay for Performance (P4P) type programs. It further highlights the value of undertaking a formal risk assessment of clinician, management, and systemic levels of literacy and competency with measurement and monitoring of quality prior to a phased implementation. This phasing can then be guided by a P4P Design Variable Matrix which provides a selection of program design options such as indicator target and payment mechanisms. It became evident that a clear process is required to standardise how clinical indicators evolve over time and direct movement towards more rigorous ‘pay for performance’ targets and the development of an optimal funding model. Use of this matrix will enable the scheme to mature and build the literacy and competency of clinicians and the organisation as implementation progresses. Furthermore, the research identified that CPIP created a spotlight on clinical indicators and incentive payments of over five million from a potential ten million was secured across the five clinical areas in the first 15 months of the scheme. This indicates that quality was rewarded in the new QHealth funding model, and despite issues being identified with the payment mechanism, funding was distributed. The economic model used identified a relative low cost of reporting (under $8,000) as opposed to funds secured of over $300,000 for mental health as an example. Movement to a full cost effectiveness study of CPIP is supported. Overall the introduction of the CPIP scheme into QHealth has been a positive and effective strategy for engaging clinicians in quality and has been the catalyst for the identification and monitoring of valuable clinical process indicators. This research has highlighted that clinicians are supportive of the scheme in general; however, there are some significant risks that include the functioning of the CPIP payment mechanism. Given clinician support for the use of a pay–for-performance methodology in QHealth, the CPIP scheme has the potential to be a powerful addition to a multi-faceted suite of quality improvement initiatives within QHealth.

Variables governing the dynamics of attacker-defender systems in team sport

This project was a step forward in the examination and identification of key variables on the perception, decision making and action of team sport athletes through theoretical insights provided by the ecological dynamics perspective. The methodology drew on experiential knowledge of elite coaches to drive further empirical investigation into the specific task, environmental and personal constraints that shape the behaviour of athletes in specific performance contexts. The thesis has provided an effective rationale for further investigation into the emergent perception, decision making and action demanded of athletes in these unpredictable, fluent, fast-paced environments.