Monte Carlo Methods in Parameter Estimation of Nonlinear Models

Yksi keskeisimmistä tehtävistä matemaattisten mallien tilastollisessa analyysissä on mallien tuntemattomien parametrien estimointi. Tässä diplomityössä ollaan kiinnostuneita tuntemattomien parametrien jakaumista ja niiden muodostamiseen sopivista numeerisista menetelmistä, etenkin tapauksissa, joissa malli on epälineaarinen parametrien suhteen. Erilaisten numeeristen menetelmien osalta pääpaino on Markovin ketju Monte Carlo -menetelmissä (MCMC). Nämä laskentaintensiiviset menetelmät ovat viime aikoina kasvattaneet suosiotaan lähinnä kasvaneen laskentatehon vuoksi. Sekä Markovin ketjujen että Monte Carlo -simuloinnin teoriaa on esitelty työssä siinä määrin, että menetelmien toimivuus saadaan perusteltua. Viime aikoina kehitetyistä menetelmistä tarkastellaan etenkin adaptiivisia MCMC menetelmiä. Työn lähestymistapa on käytännönläheinen ja erilaisia MCMC -menetelmien toteutukseen liittyviä asioita korostetaan. Työn empiirisessä osuudessa tarkastellaan viiden esimerkkimallin tuntemattomien parametrien jakaumaa käyttäen hyväksi teoriaosassa esitettyjä menetelmiä. Mallit kuvaavat kemiallisia reaktioita ja kuvataan tavallisina differentiaaliyhtälöryhminä. Mallit on kerätty kemisteiltä Lappeenrannan teknillisestä yliopistosta ja Åbo Akademista, Turusta.

Effect of the surface charge discretization on electric double layers. A Monte Carlo simulation study

The structure of the electric double layer in contact with discrete and continuously charged planar surfaces is studied within the framework of the primitive model through Monte Carlo simulations. Three different discretization models are considered together with the case of uniform distribution. The effect of discreteness is analyzed in terms of charge density profiles. For point surface groups,a complete equivalence with the situation of uniformly distributed charge is found if profiles are exclusively analyzed as a function of the distance to the charged surface. However, some differences are observed moving parallel to the surface. Significant discrepancies with approaches that do not account for discreteness are reported if charge sites of finite size placed on the surface are considered.

Monte Carlo derivation of filtered tungsten anode X-ray spectra for dose computation in digital mammography

Abstract Objective: Derive filtered tungsten X-ray spectra used in digital mammography systems by means of Monte Carlo simulations. Materials and Methods: Filtered spectra for rhodium filter were obtained for tube potentials between 26 and 32 kV. The half-value layer (HVL) of simulated filtered spectra were compared with those obtained experimentally with a solid state detector Unfors model 8202031-H Xi R/F & MAM Detector Platinum and 8201023-C Xi Base unit Platinum Plus w mAs in a Hologic Selenia Dimensions system using a direct radiography mode. Results: Calculated HVL values showed good agreement as compared with those obtained experimentally. The greatest relative difference between the Monte Carlo calculated HVL values and experimental HVL values was 4%. Conclusion: The results show that the filtered tungsten anode X-ray spectra and the EGSnrc Monte Carlo code can be used for mean glandular dose determination in mammography.

Monte Carlo thermodynamic and structural properties of the TIP4P water model: dependence on the computational conditions

Classical Monte Carlo simulations were carried out on the NPT ensemble at 25°C and 1 atm, aiming to investigate the ability of the TIP4P water model [Jorgensen, Chandrasekhar, Madura, Impey and Klein; J. Chem. Phys., 79 (1983) 926] to reproduce the newest structural picture of liquid water. The results were compared with recent neutron diffraction data [Soper; Bruni and Ricci; J. Chem. Phys., 106 (1997) 247]. The influence of the computational conditions on the thermodynamic and structural results obtained with this model was also analyzed. The findings were compared with the original ones from Jorgensen et al [above-cited reference plus Mol. Phys., 56 (1985) 1381]. It is notice that the thermodynamic results are dependent on the boundary conditions used, whereas the usual radial distribution functions g(O/O(r)) and g(O/H(r)) do not depend on them.

Monte Carlo study of the XY-model on quasi-periodic lattices

Monte Carlo Simulations were carried out using a nearest neighbour ferromagnetic XYmodel, on both 2-D and 3-D quasi-periodic lattices. In the case of 2-D, both the unfrustrated and frustrated XV-model were studied. For the unfrustrated 2-D XV-model, we have examined the magnetization, specific heat, linear susceptibility, helicity modulus and the derivative of the helicity modulus with respect to inverse temperature. The behaviour of all these quatities point to a Kosterlitz-Thouless transition occuring in temperature range Te == (1.0 -1.05) JlkB and with critical exponents that are consistent with previous results (obtained for crystalline lattices) . However, in the frustrated case, analysis of the spin glass susceptibility and EdwardsAnderson order parameter, in addition to the magnetization, specific heat and linear susceptibility, support a spin glass transition. In the case where the 'thin' rhombus is fully frustrated, a freezing transition occurs at Tf == 0.137 JlkB , which contradicts previous work suggesting the critical dimension of spin glasses to be de > 2 . In the 3-D systems, examination of the magnetization, specific heat and linear susceptibility reveal a conventional second order phase transition. Through a cumulant analysis and finite size scaling, a critical temperature of Te == (2.292 ± 0.003) JI kB and critical exponents of 0:' == 0.03 ± 0.03, f3 == 0.30 ± 0.01 and I == 1.31 ± 0.02 have been obtained.

Étude des artefacts en tomodensitométrie par simulation Monte Carlo

En radiothérapie, la tomodensitométrie (CT) fournit l’information anatomique du patient utile au calcul de dose durant la planification de traitement. Afin de considérer la composition hétérogène des tissus, des techniques de calcul telles que la méthode Monte Carlo sont nécessaires pour calculer la dose de manière exacte. L’importation des images CT dans un tel calcul exige que chaque voxel exprimé en unité Hounsfield (HU) soit converti en une valeur physique telle que la densité électronique (ED). Cette conversion est habituellement effectuée à l’aide d’une courbe d’étalonnage HU-ED. Une anomalie ou artefact qui apparaît dans une image CT avant l’étalonnage est susceptible d’assigner un mauvais tissu à un voxel. Ces erreurs peuvent causer une perte cruciale de fiabilité du calcul de dose. Ce travail vise à attribuer une valeur exacte aux voxels d’images CT afin d’assurer la fiabilité des calculs de dose durant la planification de traitement en radiothérapie. Pour y parvenir, une étude est réalisée sur les artefacts qui sont reproduits par simulation Monte Carlo. Pour réduire le temps de calcul, les simulations sont parallélisées et transposées sur un superordinateur. Une étude de sensibilité des nombres HU en présence d’artefacts est ensuite réalisée par une analyse statistique des histogrammes. À l’origine de nombreux artefacts, le durcissement de faisceau est étudié davantage. Une revue sur l’état de l’art en matière de correction du durcissement de faisceau est présentée suivi d’une démonstration explicite d’une correction empirique.

Monte Carlo phase diagram for diblock copolymer melts

A partial phase diagram is constructed for diblock copolymer melts using lattice-based Monte Carlo simulations. This is done by locating the order-disorder transition (ODT) with the aid of a recently proposed order parameter and identifying the ordered phase over a wide range of copolymer compositions (0.2 <= f <= 0.8). Consistent with experiments, the disordered phase is found to exhibit direct first-order transitions to each of the ordered morphologies. This includes the spontaneous formation of a perforated-lamellar phase, which presumably forms in place of the gyroid morphology due to finite-size and/or nonequilibrium effects. Also included in our study is a detailed examination of disordered cylinder-forming (f=0.3) diblock copolymers, revealing a substantial degree of pretransitional chain stretching and short-range order that set in well before the ODT, as observed previously in analogous studies on lamellar-forming (f=0.5) molecules. (c) 2006 American Institute of Physics.

Monte Carlo phase diagram for diblock copolymer melts

The phase diagram for diblock copolymer melts is evaluated from lattice-based Monte Carlo simulations using parallel tempering, improving upon earlier simulations that used sequential temperature scans. This new approach locates the order-disorder transition (ODT) far more accurately by the occurrence of a sharp spike in the heat capacity. The present study also performs a more thorough investigation of finite-size effects, which reveals that the gyroid (G) morphology spontaneously forms in place of the perforated-lamellar (PL) phase identified in the earlier study. Nevertheless, there still remains a small region where the PL phase appears to be stable. Interestingly, the lamellar (L) phase next to this region exhibits a small population of transient perforations, which may explain previous scattering experiments suggesting a modulated-lamellar (ML) phase.

A cluster computing implementation of a Monte Carlo simulation of a particle growth mechanism

Clusters of computers can be used together to provide a powerful computing resource. Large Monte Carlo simulations, such as those used to model particle growth, are computationally intensive and take considerable time to execute on conventional workstations. By spreading the work of the simulation across a cluster of computers, the elapsed execution time can be greatly reduced. Thus a user has apparently the performance of a supercomputer by using the spare cycles on other workstations.

Monte Carlo phase diagram for a polydisperse diblock copolymer melt

The phase diagram for an AB diblock copolymer melt with polydisperse A blocks and monodisperse B blocks is evaluated using lattice-based Monte Carlo simulations. Experiments on this system have shown that the A-block polydispersity shifts the order-order transitions (OOTs) towards higher A-monomer content, while the order-disorder transition (ODT) moves towards higher temperatures when the A blocks form the minority domains and lower temperatures when the A blocks form the matrix. Although self-consistent field theory (SCFT) correctly accounts for the change in the OOTs, it incorrectly predicts the ODT to shift towards higher temperatures at all diblock copolymer compositions. In contrast, our simulations predict the correct shifts for both the OOTs and the ODT. This implies that polydispersity amplifies the fluctuation-induced correction to the mean-field ODT, which we attribute to a reduction in packing frustration. Consistent with this explanation, polydispersity is found to enhance the stability of the perforated-lamellar phase.

A Monte Carlo study of solutions of oppositely charged polyelectrolytes

The formation of complexes appearing in solutions containing oppositely charged polyelectrolytes has been investigated by Monte Carlo simulations using two different models. The polyions are described as flexible chains of 20 connected charged hard spheres immersed in a homogenous dielectric background representing water. The small ions are either explicitly included or their effect described by using a screened Coulomb potential. The simulated solutions contained 10 positively charged polyions with 0, 2, or 5 negatively charged polyions and the respective counterions. Two different linear charge densities were considered, and structure factors, radial distribution functions, and polyion extensions were determined. A redistribution of positively charged polyions involving strong complexes formed between the oppositely charged polyions appeared as the number of negatively charged polyions was increased. The nature of the complexes was found to depend on the linear charge density of the chains. The simplified model involving the screened Coulomb potential gave qualitatively similar results as the model with explicit small ions. Finally, owing to the complex formation, the sampling in configurational space is nontrivial, and the efficiency of different trial moves was examined.

Non-LTE Monte Carlo radiative transfer. II. Nonisothermal solutions for viscous Keplerian disks

We discuss the basic hydrodynamics that determines the density structure of the disks around hot stars. Observational evidence supports the idea that these disks are Keplerian (rotationally supported) gaseous disks. A popular scenario in the literature, which naturally leads to the formation of Keplerian disks, is the viscous decretion model. According to this scenario, the disks are hydrostatically supported in the vertical direction, while the radial structure is governed by the viscous transport. This suggests that the temperature is one primary factor that governs the disk density structure. In a previous study we demonstrated, using three-dimensional non-LTE Monte Carlo simulations, that viscous Keplerian disks can be highly nonisothermal. In this paper we build on our previous work and solve the full problem of the steady state nonisothermal viscous diffusion and vertical hydrostatic equilibrium. We find that the self-consistent solution departs significantly from the analytic isothermal density, with potentially large effects on the emergent spectrum. This implies that nonisothermal disk models must be used for a detailed modeling of Be star disks.

Triple- and quadruple-escape peaks in HPGe detectors: Experimental observation and Monte Carlo simulation

The triple- and quadruple-escape peaks of 6.128 MeV photons from the (19)F(p,alpha gamma)(16)O nuclear reaction were observed in an HPGe detector. The experimental peak areas, measured in spectra projected with a restriction function that allows quantitative comparison of data from different multiplicities, are in reasonably good agreement with those predicted by Monte Carlo simulations done with the general-purpose radiation-transport code PENELOPE. The behaviour of the escape intensities was simulated for some gamma-ray energies and detector dimensions; the results obtained can be extended to other energies using an empirical function and statistical properties related to the phenomenon. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The importance of common cyclical features in VAR analysis: a Monte-Carlo study

Despite the commonly held belief that aggregate data display short-run comovement, there has been little discussion about the econometric consequences of this feature of the data. We use exhaustive Monte-Carlo simulations to investigate the importance of restrictions implied by common-cyclical features for estimates and forecasts based on vector autoregressive models. First, we show that the ìbestî empirical model developed without common cycle restrictions need not nest the ìbestî model developed with those restrictions. This is due to possible differences in the lag-lengths chosen by model selection criteria for the two alternative models. Second, we show that the costs of ignoring common cyclical features in vector autoregressive modelling can be high, both in terms of forecast accuracy and efficient estimation of variance decomposition coefficients. Third, we find that the Hannan-Quinn criterion performs best among model selection criteria in simultaneously selecting the lag-length and rank of vector autoregressions.

Monte Carlo investigations of intermolecular interactions in water-amide mixtures

Monte Carlo simulations of water-amides (amide=fonnamide-FOR, methylfonnamide-NMF and dimethylformamide-DMF) solutions have been carried out in the NpT ensemble at 308 K and 1 atm. The structure and excess enthalpy of the mixtures as a function of the composition have been investigated. The TIP4P model was used for simulating water and six-site models previously optimized in this laboratory were used for simulating the liquid amides. The intermolecular interaction energy was calculated using the classical 6-12 Lennard-Jones potential plus a Coulomb term. The interaction energy between solute and solvent has been partitioned what leads to a better understanding of the behavior of the enthalpy of mixture obtained for the three solutions experimentally. Radial distribution functions for the water-amides correlations permit to explore the intermolecular interactions between the molecules. The results show that three, two and one hydrogen bonds between the water and the amide molecules are formed in the FOR, NMF and DMF-water solutions, respectively. These H-bonds are, respectively, stronger for DMF-water, NMF-water and FOR-water. In the NMF-water solution, the interaction between the methyl group of the NMF and the oxygen of the water plays a role in the stabilization of the aqueous solution quite similar to that of an H-bond in the FOR-water solution. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.