A probabilistic approach to the estimation of regional photovoltaic power generation using meteorological data

In Germany the upscaling algorithm is currently the standard approach for evaluating the PV power produced in a region. This method involves spatially interpolating the normalized power of a set of reference PV plants to estimate the power production by another set of unknown plants. As little information on the performances of this method could be found in the literature, the first goal of this thesis is to conduct an analysis of the uncertainty associated to this method. It was found that this method can lead to large errors when the set of reference plants has different characteristics or weather conditions than the set of unknown plants and when the set of reference plants is small. Based on these preliminary findings, an alternative method is proposed for calculating the aggregate power production of a set of PV plants. A probabilistic approach has been chosen by which a power production is calculated at each PV plant from corresponding weather data. The probabilistic approach consists of evaluating the power for each frequently occurring value of the parameters and estimating the most probable value by averaging these power values weighted by their frequency of occurrence. Most frequent parameter sets (e.g. module azimuth and tilt angle) and their frequency of occurrence have been assessed on the basis of a statistical analysis of parameters of approx. 35 000 PV plants. It has been found that the plant parameters are statistically dependent on the size and location of the PV plants. Accordingly, separate statistical values have been assessed for 14 classes of nominal capacity and 95 regions in Germany (two-digit zip-code areas). The performances of the upscaling and probabilistic approaches have been compared on the basis of 15 min power measurements from 715 PV plants provided by the German distribution system operator LEW Verteilnetz. It was found that the error of the probabilistic method is smaller than that of the upscaling method when the number of reference plants is sufficiently large (>100 reference plants in the case study considered in this chapter). When the number of reference plants is limited (<50 reference plants for the considered case study), it was found that the proposed approach provides a noticeable gain in accuracy with respect to the upscaling method.

Detection of mesoscale thermal fronts from 4km data using smoothing techniques: Gradient-based fronts classification and basin scale application

In order to optimize frontal detection in sea surface temperature fields at 4 km resolution, a combined statistical and expert-based approach is applied to test different spatial smoothing of the data prior to the detection process. Fronts are usually detected at 1 km resolution using the histogram-based, single image edge detection (SIED) algorithm developed by Cayula and Cornillon in 1992, with a standard preliminary smoothing using a median filter and a 3 × 3 pixel kernel. Here, detections are performed in three study regions (off Morocco, the Mozambique Channel, and north-western Australia) and across the Indian Ocean basin using the combination of multiple windows (CMW) method developed by Nieto, Demarcq and McClatchie in 2012 which improves on the original Cayula and Cornillon algorithm. Detections at 4 km and 1 km of resolution are compared. Fronts are divided in two intensity classes (“weak” and “strong”) according to their thermal gradient. A preliminary smoothing is applied prior to the detection using different convolutions: three type of filters (median, average and Gaussian) combined with four kernel sizes (3 × 3, 5 × 5, 7 × 7, and 9 × 9 pixels) and three detection window sizes (16 × 16, 24 × 24 and 32 × 32 pixels) to test the effect of these smoothing combinations on reducing the background noise of the data and therefore on improving the frontal detection. The performance of the combinations on 4 km data are evaluated using two criteria: detection efficiency and front length. We find that the optimal combination of preliminary smoothing parameters in enhancing detection efficiency and preserving front length includes a median filter, a 16 × 16 pixel window size, and a 5 × 5 pixel kernel for strong fronts and a 7 × 7 pixel kernel for weak fronts. Results show an improvement in detection performance (from largest to smallest window size) of 71% for strong fronts and 120% for weak fronts. Despite the small window used (16 × 16 pixels), the length of the fronts has been preserved relative to that found with 1 km data. This optimal preliminary smoothing and the CMW detection algorithm on 4 km sea surface temperature data are then used to describe the spatial distribution of the monthly frequencies of occurrence for both strong and weak fronts across the Indian Ocean basin. In general strong fronts are observed in coastal areas whereas weak fronts, with some seasonal exceptions, are mainly located in the open ocean. This study shows that adequate noise reduction done by a preliminary smoothing of the data considerably improves the frontal detection efficiency as well as the global quality of the results. Consequently, the use of 4 km data enables frontal detections similar to 1 km data (using a standard median 3 × 3 convolution) in terms of detectability, length and location. This method, using 4 km data is easily applicable to large regions or at the global scale with far less constraints of data manipulation and processing time relative to 1 km data.

The B0.5IVe CoRoT target HD 49330 I. Photometric analysis from CoRoT data

Context. Be stars undergo outbursts producing a circumstellar disk from the ejected material. The beating of non-radial pulsations has been put forward as a possible mechanism of ejection. Aims. We analyze the pulsational behavior of the early B0.5IVe star HD 49330 observed during the first CoRoT long run towards the Galactical anticenter (LRA1). This Be star is located close to the lower edge of the beta Cephei instability strip in the HR diagram and showed a 0.03 mag outburst during the CoRoT observations. It is thus an ideal case for testing the aforementioned hypothesis. Methods. We analyze the CoRoT light curve of HD 49330 using Fourier methods and non-linear least square fitting. Results. In this star, we find pulsation modes typical of beta Cep stars (p modes) and SPB stars (g modes) with amplitude variations along the run directly correlated with the outburst. These results provide new clues about the origin of the Be phenomenon as well as strong constraints on the seismic modelling of Be stars.

Direct evidence of singlet molecular oxygen generation from peroxynitrate, a decomposition product of peroxynitrite

The decomposition of peroxynitrite to nitrite and dioxygen at neutral pH follows complex kinetics, compared to its isomerization to nitrate at low pH. Decomposition may involve radicals or proceed by way of the classical peracid decomposition mechanism. Peroxynitrite (ONOOH/ONOO(-)) decomposition has been proposed to involve formation of peroxynitrate (O(2)NOOH/O(2)NOO(-)) at neutral pH (D. Gupta, B. Harish, R. Kissner and W. H. Koppenol, Dalton Trans., 2009, DOI: 10.1039/b905535e, see accompanying paper in this issue). Peroxynitrate is unstable and decomposes to nitrite and dioxygen. This study aimed to investigate whether O(2)NOO(-) formed upon ONOOH/ONOO(-) decomposition generates singlet molecular oxygen [O(2) ((1)Delta(g))]. As unequivocally revealed by the measurement of monomol light emission in the near infrared region at 1270 nm and by chemical trapping experiments, the decomposition of ONOO(-) or O(2)NOOH at neutral to alkaline pH generates O(2) ((1)Delta(g)) at a yield of ca. 1% and 2-10%, respectively. Characteristic light emission, corresponding to O(2) ((1)Delta(g)) monomolecular decay was observed for ONOO(-) and for O(2)NOOH prepared by reaction of H(2)O(2) with NO(2)BF(4) and of H(2)O(2) with NO(2)(-) in HClO(4). The generation of O(2) ((1)Delta(g)) from ONOO(-) increased in a concentration-dependent manner in the range of 0.1-2.5 mM and was dependent on pH, giving a sigmoid pro. le with an apparent pK(a) around pD 8.1 (pH 7.7). Taken together, our results clearly identify the generation of O(2) ((1)Delta(g)) from peroxynitrate [O(2)NOO(-) -> NO(2)(-) + O(2) ((1)Delta(g))] generated from peroxynitrite and also from the reactions of H(2)O(2) with either NO(2)BF(4) or NO(2)(-) in acidic media.

Estimating correlations from epidemiological data in the presence of measurement error

Analysis of a major multi-site epidemiologic study of heart disease has required estimation of the pairwise correlation of several measurements across sub-populations. Because the measurements from each sub-population were subject to sampling variability, the Pearson product moment estimator of these correlations produces biased estimates. This paper proposes a model that takes into account within and between sub-population variation, provides algorithms for obtaining maximum likelihood estimates of these correlations and discusses several approaches for obtaining interval estimates. (C) 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Corneal myofibroblast generation from bone marrow-derived cells

The purpose of this study was to determine whether bone marrow-derived cells can differentiate into myofibroblasts, as defined by alpha-smooth muscle actin (SMA) expression, that arise in the corneal stroma after irregular phototherapeutic keratectomy and whose presence within the cornea is associated with corneal stromal haze. C578L/6J-GFP chimeric mice were generated through bone marrow transplantation from donor mice that expressed enhanced green fluorescent protein (GFP) in a high proportion of their bone marrow-derived cells. Twenty-four GFP chimeric mice underwent haze-generating corneal epithelial scrape followed by irregular phototherapeutic keratectomy (PTK) with an excimer laser in one eye. Mice were euthanized at 2 weeks or 4 weeks after PTK and the treated and control contralateral eyes were removed and cryo-preserved for sectioning for immunocytochemistry. Double immunocytochemistry for GFP and myofibroblast marker alpha-smooth muscle actin (SMA) were performed and the number of SMA+GFP+, SMA+GFP, SMA-GFP+ and SMA GFP cells, as well as the number of DAPI+ cell nuclei, per 400x field of stroma was determined in the central, mid-peripheral and peri-limbal cornea. In this mouse model, there were no SMA+ cells and only a few GFP+ cells detected in unwounded control corneas. No SMA+ cells were detected in the stroma at two weeks after irregular PTK, even though there were numerous GFP+ cells present. At 4 weeks after irregular PTK, all corneas developed mild to moderately severe corneal haze. In each of the three regions of the corneas examined, there were on average more than 9x more SMA+GFP+ than SMA+GFP myofibroblasts. This difference was significant (p < 0.01). There were significantly more (p < 0.01) SMA GFP+ cells, which likely include inflammatory cells, than SMA+GFP+ or SMA+GFP cells, although SMA GFP cells represent the largest population of cells in the corneas. In this mouse model, the majority of myofibroblasts developed from bone marrow-derived cells. It is possible that all myofibroblasts in these animals developed from bone marrow-derived cells since mouse chimeras produced using this method had only 60-95% of bone marrow-derived cells that were GFP+ and it is not possible to achieve 100% chimerization. This model, therefore, cannot exclude the possibility of myofibroblasts also developed from keratocytes and/or corneal fibroblasts. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Classification and staging of chronic liver disease from multimodal data

Chronic liver disease (CLD) is most of the time an asymptomatic, progressive, and ultimately potentially fatal disease. In this study, an automatic hierarchical procedure to stage CLD using ultrasound images, laboratory tests, and clinical records are described. The first stage of the proposed method, called clinical based classifier (CBC), discriminates healthy from pathologic conditions. When nonhealthy conditions are detected, the method refines the results in three exclusive pathologies in a hierarchical basis: 1) chronic hepatitis; 2) compensated cirrhosis; and 3) decompensated cirrhosis. The features used as well as the classifiers (Bayes, Parzen, support vector machine, and k-nearest neighbor) are optimally selected for each stage. A large multimodal feature database was specifically built for this study containing 30 chronic hepatitis cases, 34 compensated cirrhosis cases, and 36 decompensated cirrhosis cases, all validated after histopathologic analysis by liver biopsy. The CBC classification scheme outperformed the nonhierachical one against all scheme, achieving an overall accuracy of 98.67% for the normal detector, 87.45% for the chronic hepatitis detector, and 95.71% for the cirrhosis detector.

Fast unsupervised technique for extraction of endmembers spectra from hyperspectral data

One of the most challenging task underlying many hyperspectral imagery applications is the linear unmixing. The key to linear unmixing is to find the set of reference substances, also called endmembers, that are representative of a given scene. This paper presents the vertex component analysis (VCA) a new method to unmix linear mixtures of hyperspectral sources. The algorithm is unsupervised and exploits a simple geometric fact: endmembers are vertices of a simplex. The algorithm complexity, measured in floating points operations, is O (n), where n is the sample size. The effectiveness of the proposed scheme is illustrated using simulated data.

Measurement of the top-quark mass in the fully hadronic decay channel from ATLAS data at s√=7 TeV

The mass of the top quark is measured in a data set corresponding to 4.6 fb−1 of proton--proton collisions with centre-of-mass energy s√=7 TeV collected by the ATLAS detector at the LHC. Events consistent with hadronic decays of top--antitop quark pairs with at least six jets in the final state are selected. The substantial background from multijet production is modelled with data-driven methods that utilise the number of identified b-quark jets and the transverse momentum of the sixth leading jet, which have minimal correlation. The top-quark mass is obtained from template fits to the ratio of three-jet to dijet mass. The three-jet mass is calculated from the three jets of a top-quark decay. Using these three jets the dijet mass is obtained from the two jets of the W boson decay. The top-quark mass obtained from this fit is thus less sensitive to the uncertainty in the energy measurement of the jets. A binned likelihood fit yields a top-quark mass of mt = 175.1 ± 1.4 (stat.) ± 1.2 (syst.) GeV.

Currency Forecast Errors at Times of Low Interest Rates: Evidence from Survey Data on the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate

Using survey expectations data and Markov-switching models, this paper evaluates the characteristics and evolution of investors' forecast errors about the yen/dollar exchange rate. Since our model is derived from the uncovered interest rate parity (UIRP) condition and our data cover a period of low interest rates, this study is also related to the forward premium puzzle and the currency carry trade strategy. We obtain the following results. First, with the same forecast horizon, exchange rate forecasts are homogeneous among different industry types, but within the same industry, exchange rate forecasts differ if the forecast time horizon is different. In particular, investors tend to undervalue the future exchange rate for long term forecast horizons; however, in the short run they tend to overvalue the future exchange rate. Second, while forecast errors are found to be partly driven by interest rate spreads, evidence against the UIRP is provided regardless of the forecasting time horizon; the forward premium puzzle becomes more significant in shorter term forecasting errors. Consistent with this finding, our coefficients on interest rate spreads provide indirect evidence of the yen carry trade over only a short term forecast horizon. Furthermore, the carry trade seems to be active when there is a clear indication that the interest rate will be low in the future.

Some variational problems from image processing

"Vegeu el resum a l'inici del document del fitxer adjunt."

Singling out individual inventors from patent data

An increasing number of studies have sprung up in recent years seeking to identify individual inventors from patent data. Different heuristics have been suggested to use their names and other information disclosed in patent documents in order to find out “who is who” in patents. This paper contributes to this literature by setting forth a methodology to identify them using patents applied to the European Patent Office (EPO hereafter). As in the large part of this literature, we basically follow a three-steps procedure: (1) the parsing stage, aimed at reducing the noise in the inventor’s name and other fields of the patent; (2) the matching stage, where name matching algorithms are used to group possible similar names; (3) the filtering stage, where additional information and different scoring schemes are used to filter out these potential same inventors. The paper includes some figures resulting of applying the algorithms to the set of European inventors applying to the EPO for a large period of time.

Extra healthy years or just extra years? What can we know from the data we have on the island of Ireland?

As life expectancy continues to rise, the prevalence of chronic conditions is increasing in our society. However, we do not know if the extra years of life gained are being spent with disability and illness, or in good health. Furthermore, it is unclear if all groups in society experience their extra years of life in the same way. This report examines patterns of health expectancies across the island of Ireland, examining any North-South and socio-economic differences as well looking at differences in data sources. The older population (aged 65 or over) on the island of Ireland is growing and becoming a larger percentage of the total  population. Republic of Ireland Census 2011 revealed that 12% of the RoI population was aged 65 or over (CSO, 2012), and Northern Ireland Census 2011 revealed that 13% of the NI population was aged 65 or over (NISRA, 2012). By 2041 the population aged 65 or over is projected to reach 22% in RoI and 24% in NI (McGill, 2010). It is unclear, however, if this increasing longevity will be enjoyed equally by all strata of society.