A hypothesis test using bias-adjusted AR estimators for classifying time series in small samples

A new test of hypothesis for classifying stationary time series based on the bias-adjusted estimators of the fitted autoregressive model is proposed. It is shown theoretically that the proposed test has desirable properties. Simulation results show that when time series are short, the size and power estimates of the proposed test are reasonably good, and thus this test is reliable in discriminating between short-length time series. As the length of the time series increases, the performance of the proposed test improves, but the benefit of bias-adjustment reduces. The proposed hypothesis test is applied to two real data sets: the annual real GDP per capita of six European countries, and quarterly real GDP per capita of five European countries. The application results demonstrate that the proposed test displays reasonably good performance in classifying relatively short time series.

Inference and hypothesis in ethnographic studies

This chapter explores the possibility and exigencies of employing hypotheses, or educated guesses, as the basis for ethnographic research design. The authors’ goal is to examine whether using hypotheses might provide a path to resolve some of the challenges to knowledge claims produced by ethnographic studies. Through resolution of the putative division between qualitative and quantitative research traditions , it is argued that hypotheses can serve as inferential warrants in qualitative and ethnographic studies.

Inferring lung cancer risk factor patterns through joint Bayesian spatio-temporal analysis

Background: Preventing risk factor exposure is vital to reduce the high burden from lung cancer. The leading risk factor for developing lung cancer is tobacco smoking. In Australia, despite apparent success in reducing smoking prevalence, there is limited information on small area patterns and small area temporal trends. We sought to estimate spatio-temporal patterns for lung cancer risk factors using routinely collected population-based cancer data. Methods: The analysis used a Bayesian shared component spatio-temporal model, with male and female lung cancer included separately. The shared component reflected exposure to lung cancer risk factors, and was modelled over 477 statistical local areas (SLAs) and 15 years in Queensland, Australia. Analyses were also run adjusting for area-level socioeconomic disadvantage, Indigenous population composition, or remoteness. Results: Strong spatial patterns were observed in the underlying risk factor exposure for both males (median Relative Risk (RR) across SLAs compared to the Queensland average ranged from 0.48-2.00) and females (median RR range across SLAs 0.53-1.80), with high exposure observed in many remote areas. Strong temporal trends were also observed. Males showed a decrease in the underlying risk across time, while females showed an increase followed by a decrease in the final two years. These patterns were largely consistent across each SLA. The high underlying risk estimates observed among disadvantaged, remote and indigenous areas decreased after adjustment, particularly among females. Conclusion: The modelled underlying exposure appeared to reflect previous smoking prevalence, with a lag period of around 30 years, consistent with the time taken to develop lung cancer. The consistent temporal trends in lung cancer risk factors across small areas support the hypothesis that past interventions have been equally effective across the state. However, this also means that spatial inequalities have remained unaddressed, highlighting the potential for future interventions, particularly among remote areas.

The subcortical confinement hypothesis: A neurological model for schizotypal hallucinations

Introduction Different types of hallucinations are symptomatic of different conditions. Schizotypal hallucinations are unique in that they follow existing delusional narrative patterns: they are often bizarre, they are generally multimodal, and they are particularly vivid (the experience of a newsreader abusing you personally over the TV is both visual and aural. Patients who feel and hear silicone chips under their skin suffer from haptic hallucinations as well as aural ones, etc.) Although there are a number of hypotheses for hallucinations, few cogently grapple the sheer bizarreness of the ones experienced in schizotypal psychosis. Methods A review-based hypothesis, traversing theory from the molecular level to phenomenological expression as a distinct and recognizable symptomatology. Conclusion Hallucinations appear to be caused by a two-fold dysfunction in the mesofrontal dopamine pathway, which is considered here to mediate attention of different types: in the anterior medial frontal lobe, the receptors (largely D1 type) mediate declarative awareness, whereas the receptors in the striatum (largely D2 type) mediate latent awareness of known schemata. In healthy perception, most of the perceptual load is performed by the latter: by the top-down predictive and mimetic engine, with the bottom-up mechanism being used as a secondary tool to bring conscious deliberation to stimuli that fails to match up against expectations. In schizophrenia, the predictive mode is over-stimulated, while the bottom-up feedback mechanism atrophies. The dysfunctional distribution pattern effectively confines dopamine activity to the striatum, thereby stimulating the structural components of thought and behaviour: well-learned routines, narrative structures, lexica, grammar, schemata, archetypes, and other procedural resources. Meanwhile, the loss of activity in the frontal complex reduces the capacity for declarative awareness and for processing anything that fails to meet expectations.

Molecular data extend Australian Cricotopus midge (Chironomidae) species diversity, and provide a phylogenetic hypothesis for biogeography and freshwater monitoring

Resolving species relationships and confirming diagnostic morphological characters for insect clades that are highly plastic, and/or include morphologically cryptic species, is crucial for both academic and applied reasons. Within the true fly (Diptera) family Chironomidae, a most ubiquitous freshwater insect group, the genera CricotopusWulp, 1874 and ParatrichocladiusSantos-Abreu, 1918 have long been taxonomically confusing. Indeed, until recently the Australian fauna had been examined in just two unpublished theses: most species were known by informal manuscript names only, with no concept of relationships. Understanding species limits, and the associated ecology and evolution, is essential to address taxonomic sufficiency in biomonitoring surveys. Immature stages are collected routinely, but tolerance is generalized at the genus level, despite marked variation among species. Here, we explored this issue using a multilocus molecular phylogenetic approach, including the standard mitochondrial barcode region, and tested explicitly for phylogenetic signal in ecological tolerance of species. Additionally, we addressed biogeographical patterns by conducting Bayesian divergence time estimation. We sampled all but one of the now recognized Australian Cricotopus species and tested monophyly using representatives from other austral and Asian locations. Cricotopus is revealed as paraphyletic by the inclusion of a nested monophyletic Paratrichocladius, with in-group diversification beginning in the Eocene. Previous morphological species concepts are largely corroborated, but some additional cryptic diversity is revealed. No significant relationship was observed between the phylogenetic position of a species and its ecology, implying either that tolerance to deleterious environmental impacts is a convergent trait among many Cricotopus species or that sensitive and restricted taxa have diversified into more narrow niches from a widely tolerant ancestor.

A model to explain specific cellular communications and cellular harmony: - a hypothesis of coupled cells and interactive coupling molecules

Background The various cell types and their relative numbers in multicellular organisms are controlled by growth factors and related extracellular molecules which affect genetic expression pathways. However, these substances may have both/either inhibitory and/or stimulatory effects on cell division and cell differentiation depending on the cellular environment. It is not known how cells respond to these substances in such an ambiguous way. Many cellular effects have been investigated and reported using cell culture from cancer cell lines in an effort to define normal cellular behaviour using these abnormal cells. A model is offered to explain the harmony of cellular life in multicellular organisms involving interacting extracellular substances. Methods A basic model was proposed based on asymmetric cell division and evidence to support the hypothetical model was accumulated from the literature. In particular, relevant evidence was selected for the Insulin-Like Growth Factor system from the published data, especially from certain cell lines, to support the model. The evidence has been selective in an attempt to provide a picture of normal cellular responses, derived from the cell lines. Results The formation of a pair of coupled cells by asymmetric cell division is an integral part of the model as is the interaction of couplet molecules derived from these cells. Each couplet cell will have a receptor to measure the amount of the couplet molecule produced by the other cell; each cell will be receptor-positive or receptor-negative for the respective receptors. The couplet molecules will form a binary complex whose level is also measured by the cell. The hypothesis is heavily supported by selective collection of circumstantial evidence and by some direct evidence. The basic model can be expanded to other cellular interactions. Conclusions These couplet cells and interacting couplet molecules can be viewed as a mechanism that provides a controlled and balanced division-of-labour between the two progeny cells, and, in turn, their progeny. The presence or absence of a particular receptor for a couplet molecule will define a cell type and the presence or absence of many such receptors will define the cell types of the progeny within cell lineages.

From inferential statistics to climate knowledge

Climate variability and change are risk factors for climate sensitive activities such as agriculture. Managing these risks requires "climate knowledge", i.e. a sound understanding of causes and consequences of climate variability and knowledge of potential management options that are suitable in light of the climatic risks posed. Often such information about prognostic variables (e.g. yield, rainfall, run-off) is provided in probabilistic terms (e.g. via cumulative distribution functions, CDF), whereby the quantitative assessments of these alternative management options is based on such CDFs. Sound statistical approaches are needed in order to assess whether difference between such CDFs are intrinsic features of systems dynamics or chance events (i.e. quantifying evidences against an appropriate null hypothesis). Statistical procedures that rely on such a hypothesis testing framework are referred to as "inferential statistics" in contrast to descriptive statistics (e.g. mean, median, variance of population samples, skill scores). Here we report on the extension of some of the existing inferential techniques that provides more relevant and adequate information for decision making under uncertainty.

The limit to wheat water-use efficiency in eastern Australia. II. Influence of rainfall patterns

We investigated the influence of rainfall patterns on the water-use efficiency of wheat in a transect between Horsham (36°S) and Emerald (23°S) in eastern Australia. Water-use efficiency was defined in terms of biomass and transpiration, WUEB/T, and grain yield and evapotranspiration, WUEY/ET. Our working hypothesis is that latitudinal trends in WUEY/ET of water-limited crops are the complex result of southward increasing WUEB/T and soil evaporation, and season-dependent trends in harvest index. Our approach included: (a) analysis of long-term records to establish latitudinal gradients of amount, seasonality, and size-structure of rainfall; and (b) modelling wheat development, growth, yield, water budget components, and derived variables including WUEB/T and WUEY/ET. Annual median rainfall declined from around 600 mm in northern locations to 380 mm in the south. Median seasonal rain (from sowing to harvest) doubled between Emerald and Horsham, whereas median off-season rainfall (harvest to sowing) ranged from 460 mm at Emerald to 156 mm at Horsham. The contribution of small events (≤ 5 mm) to seasonal rainfall was negligible at Emerald (median 15 mm) and substantial at Horsham (105 mm). Power law coefficients (τ), i.e. the slopes of the regression between size and number of events in a log-log scale, captured the latitudinal gradient characterised by an increasing dominance of small events from north to south during the growing season. Median modelled WUEB/T increased from 46 kg/ha.mm at Emerald to 73 kg/ha.mm at Horsham, in response to decreasing atmospheric demand. Median modelled soil evaporation during the growing season increased from 70 mm at Emerald to 172 mm at Horsham. This was explained by the size-structure of rainfall characterised with parameter τ, rather than by the total amount of rainfall. Median modelled harvest index ranged from 0.25 to 0.34 across locations, and had a season-dependent latitudinal pattern, i.e. it was greater in northern locations in dry seasons in association with wetter soil profiles at sowing. There was a season-dependent latitudinal pattern in modelled WUEY/ET. In drier seasons, high soil evaporation driven by a very strong dominance of small events, and lower harvest index override the putative advantage of low atmospheric demand and associated higher WUEB/T in southern locations, hence the significant southwards decrease in WUEY/ET. In wetter seasons, when large events contribute a significant proportion of seasonal rain, higher WUEB/T in southern locations may translate into high WUEY/ET. Linear boundary functions (French-Schultz type models) accounting for latitudinal gradients in its parameters, slope, and x-intercept, were fitted to scatter-plots of modelled yield v. evapotranspiration. The x-intercept of the model is re-interpreted in terms of rainfall size structure, and the slope or efficiency multiplier is described in terms of the radiation, temperature, and air humidity properties of the environment. Implications for crop management and breeding are discussed.

Test of the enemy release hypothesis: the native magpie moth prefers a native fireweed (Senecio pinnatifolius) to its introduced congener (S. madagascariensis).

The enemy release hypothesis predicts that native herbivores will either prefer or cause more damage to native than introduced plant species. We tested this using preference and performance experiments in the laboratory and surveys of leaf damage caused by the magpie moth Nyctemera amica on a co-occuring native and introduced species of fireweed (Senecio) in eastern Australia. In the laboratory, ovipositing females and feeding larvae preferred the native S. pinnatifolius over the introduced S. madagascariensis. Larvae performed equally well on foliage of S. pinnatifolius and S. madagascariensis: pupal weights did not differ between insects reared on the two species, but growth rates were significantly faster on S. pinnatifolius. In the field, foliage damage was significantly greater on native S. pinnatifolius than introduced S. madagascariensis. These results support the enemy release hypothesis, and suggest that the failure of native consumers to switch to introduced species contributes to their invasive success. Both plant species experienced reduced, rather than increased, levels of herbivory when growing in mixed populations, as opposed to pure stands in the field; thus, there was no evidence that apparent competition occurred.

Modelling the nitrogen-driven trade-off between nitrogen utilisation efficiency and water use efficiency of wheat in eastern Australia.

The nitrogen-driven trade-off between nitrogen utilisation efficiency (yield per unit nitrogen uptake) and water use efficiency (yield per unit evapotranspiration) is widespread and results from well established, multiple effects of nitrogen availability on the water, carbon and nitrogen economy of crops. Here we used a crop model (APSIM) to simulate the yield, evapotranspiration, soil evaporation and nitrogen uptake of wheat, and analysed yield responses to water, nitrogen and climate using a framework analogous to the rate-duration model of determinate growth. The relationship between modelled grain yield (Y) and evapotranspiration (ET) was fitted to a linear-plateau function to derive three parameters: maximum yield (Ymax), the ET break-point when yield reaches its maximum (ET#), and the rate of yield response in the linear phase ([Delta]Y/[Delta]ET). Against this framework, we tested the hypothesis that nitrogen deficit reduces maximum yield by reducing both the rate ([Delta]Y/[Delta]ET) and the range of yield response to evapotranspiration, i.e. ET# - Es, where Es is modelled median soil evaporation. Modelled data reproduced the nitrogen-driven trade-off between nitrogen utilisation efficiency and water use efficiency in a transect from Horsham (36°S) to Emerald (23°S) in eastern Australia. Increasing nitrogen supply from 50 to 250 kg N ha-1 reduced yield per unit nitrogen uptake from 29 to 12 kg grain kg-1 N and increased yield per unit evapotranspiration from 6 to 15 kg grain ha-1 mm-1 at Emerald. The same increment in nitrogen supply reduced yield per unit nitrogen uptake from 30 to 25 kg grain kg-1 N and increased yield per unit evapotranspiration from 6 to 25 kg grain ha-1 mm-1 at Horsham. Maximum yield ranged from 0.9 to 6.4 t ha-1. Consistent with our working hypothesis, reductions in maximum yield with nitrogen deficit were associated with both reduction in the rate of yield response to ET and compression of the range of yield response to ET. Against the notion of managing crops to maximise water use efficiency in low rainfall environments, we emphasise the trade-off between water use efficiency and nitrogen utilisation efficiency, particularly under conditions of high nitrogen-to-grain price ratio. The rate-range framework to characterise the relationship between yield and evapotranspiration is useful to capture this trade-off as the parameters were responsive to both nitrogen supply and climatic factors.

Sex Determination - A Hypothesis Based On Noncoding Dna

Certain recent models of sex determination in mammals, Drosophila melanogaster, Caenorhabditis elegans, and snakes are examined in the light of the hypothesis that the relevant genetic regulatory mechanisms are similar and interrelated. The proposed key element in each of these instances is a noncoding DNA sequence, which serves as a high-affinity binding site for a repressor-like molecule regulating the activity of a major "sex-determining" gene. On this basis it is argued that, in several eukaryotes, (i) certain DNA sequences that are sex-determining are noncoding, in the sense that they are not the structural genes of a sex-determining protein; (ii) in some species these noncoding sequences are present in one sex and absent in the other, while in others their copy number or accessibility to regulatory molecules is significantly unequal between the two sexes; and (iii) this inequality determines whether the embryo develops into a male or a female.

A new kinetic model for bulk polymerization of vinyl chloride based on two-phase hypothesis

A kinetic model has been developed for the bulk polymerization of vinyl chloride using Talamini's hypothesis of two-phase polymerization and a new concept of kinetic solubility which assumes that rapidly growing polymer chains have considerably greater solubility than the thermodynamic solubility of preformed polymer molecules of the same size and so can remain in solution even under thermodynamically unfavourable conditions. It is further assumed that this kinetic solubility is a function of chain length. The model yields a rate expression consistent with the experimental data for vinyl chloride bulk polymerization and moreover is able to explain several characteristic kinetic features of this system. Application of the model rate expression to the available rate data has yielded 2.36 × 108l mol−1 sec−1 for the termination rate constant in the polymer-rich phase; as expected, this value is smaller than that reported for homogenous polymerization by a factor of 10–30.

Median muotoilema : Muotoilun mediajulkisuus suomalaisessa talouslehdistössä

Designed by the Media The Media publicity of Design in the Finnish Economic Press The meaning of design has increased in consumer societies. Design is the subject of debate and the number of media discussions has also increased steadily. Especially the role of industrial design has been emphasised. In this study I examine the media publicity of design in the Finnish economic press from the late 1980s to the beginning of the 2000s. The research question is connected to media representations: How is design represented in the Finnish economic press? In other words, what are the central topics of design in the economic press, and to what issues are the media debates connected? The usually repeated phrase that design discussions take place only on the cultural pages of the daily press or in cultural contexts is being changed. Design is also linked to the consumer culture and consumers everyday practices. The research material has been collected from the Finnish economic press. The qualitative sample consists of articles from Kauppalehti, Taloussanomat and from several economic papers published by the Talentum Corporation. The approach of the research is explorative, descriptive and hermeneutic. This means that the economic press articles are used to explore how design is represented in the media. In addition, the characteristics of design represented in the media are described in detail. The research is based on the interpretive tradition of studying textual materials. Background assumptions are thus grounded in hermeneutics. Erving Goffman s frame analysis is applied in analysing the economic press materials. The frames interpreted from the articles depict the media publicity of design in the Finnish economic press. The research opens up a multidimensional picture of design in the economic press. The analysis resulted in five frames that describe design from various points of view. In the personal frame designers are described in private settings and through their personal experiences. The second frame relates to design work. In the frame of mastery of the profession, the designers work is interpreted widely. Design is considered from the aspects of controlling personal know-how, co-operation and the overall process of design. The third frame is connected to the actual substance of the economic press. In the frame of economy and market, design is linked to international competitiveness, companies competitive advantage and benefit creation for the consumers. The fourth frame is connected to the actors promoting design on a societal level. In the communal frame, the economic press describes design policy, design research and education and other actors that actively develop design in the societal networks. The last frame is linked to the traditions of design and above all to the examination of the cultural transition. In the frame of culture the traditions of design are emphasised. Design is also connected to the industrial culture and furthermore to the themes of the consumer culture. It can be argued that the frames construct media publicity of design from various points of view. The frames describe situations, action and the actors of design. The interpreted media frames make it possible to understand the relation of interpreted design actions and the culture. Thus, media has a crucial role in representing and recreating meanings related to design. The publicity of design is characterised by the five focal themes: personification, professionalisation, commercialisation, communalisation and transition of cultural focus from the traditions of design to the industrial culture and the consumer culture. Based on my interpretation these themes are guided by the mediatisation of design. The design phenomenon is defined more often on the basis of the media representations in the public discourses. The design culture outlined in this research connects socially constructed and structurally organised action. Socially constructed action in design is connected to the experiences, social recreation and collective development of design. Structurally, design is described as professional know-how, as a process and as an economic profit generating action in the society. The events described by the media affect the way in which people experience the world, the meanings they connect to the events around themselves and their life in the world. By affecting experiences, the media indirectly affects human actions. People have become habituated to read media representations on a daily basis, but they are not used to reading and interpreting the various meanings that are incorporated in the media texts.

A hypothesis on the role of hydroxyproline in stabilizing collagen structure

The possibility of hydroxyproline residues stabilizing the collagen triple-helical structure by the formation of additional hydrogen bonds through their γ-hydroxyl group has been studied from structural considerations. It is not possible for this hydroxyl group to form a direct hydrogen bond with a suitable group in a neighbouring chain of the triple-helical protofibril. However, in the modified one-bonded structure, which is stabilized by additional hydrogen bonds being formed through water molecules as intermediaries (put forward in 1968 by Ramachandran, G. N. and Chandrasekharan, R.), it is found that the γ-hydroxyl group of hydroxyproline can form a good hydrogen bond with the water oxygen as acceptor, the hydrogen bond length being 2.82 Å. It is proposed that, in addition to stabilizing the collagen triple-helical structure due to the stereochemical properties of the pyrrolidine ring, hydroxyproline gives added stability by the formation of an extra hydrogen bond. Experimental studies on the determination of shrinkage and denaturation temperatures of native collagen and its synthetic analogues, as a function of their hydroxyproline content, are being undertaken to test this hypothesis.