Characterization of urban aerosol in Cork city (Ireland) using aerosol mass spectrometry

Ambient wintertime background urban aerosol in Cork city, Ireland, was characterized using aerosol mass spectrometry. During the three-week measurement study in 2009, 93% of the ca. 1 350 000 single particles characterized by an Aerosol Time-of-Flight Mass Spectrometer (TSI ATOFMS) were classified into five organic-rich particle types, internally mixed to different proportions with elemental carbon (EC), sulphate and nitrate, while the remaining 7% was predominantly inorganic in nature. Non-refractory PM1 aerosol was characterized using a High Resolution Time-of-Flight Aerosol Mass Spectrometer (Aerodyne HR-ToF-AMS) and was also found to comprise organic aerosol as the most abundant species (62 %), followed by nitrate (15 %), sulphate (9 %) and ammonium (9 %), and chloride (5 %). Positive matrix factorization (PMF) was applied to the HR-ToF-AMS organic matrix, and a five-factor solution was found to describe the variance in the data well. Specifically, "hydrocarbon-like" organic aerosol (HOA) comprised 20% of the mass, "low-volatility" oxygenated organic aerosol (LV-OOA) comprised 18 %, "biomass burning" organic aerosol (BBOA) comprised 23 %, non-wood solid-fuel combustion "peat and coal" organic aerosol (PCOA) comprised 21 %, and finally a species type characterized by primary m/z peaks at 41 and 55, similar to previously reported "cooking" organic aerosol (COA), but possessing different diurnal variations to what would be expected for cooking activities, contributed 18 %. Correlations between the different particle types obtained by the two aerosol mass spectrometers are also discussed. Despite wood, coal and peat being minor fuel types used for domestic space heating in urban areas, their relatively low combustion efficiencies result in a significant contribution to PM1 aerosol mass (44% and 28% of the total organic aerosol mass and non-refractory total PM1, respectively).Ambient wintertime background urban aerosol in Cork city, Ireland, was characterized using aerosol mass spectrometry. During the three-week measurement study in 2009, 93% of the ca. 1 350 000 single particles characterized by an Aerosol Time-of-Flight Mass Spectrometer (TSI ATOFMS) were classified into five organic-rich particle types, internally mixed to different proportions with elemental carbon (EC), sulphate and nitrate, while the remaining 7% was predominantly inorganic in nature. Non-refractory PM1 aerosol was characterized using a High Resolution Time-of-Flight Aerosol Mass Spectrometer (Aerodyne HR-ToF-AMS) and was also found to comprise organic aerosol as the most abundant species (62 %), followed by nitrate (15 %), sulphate (9 %) and ammonium (9 %), and chloride (5 %). Positive matrix factorization (PMF) was applied to the HR-ToF-AMS organic matrix, and a five-factor solution was found to describe the variance in the data well. Specifically, "hydrocarbon-like" organic aerosol (HOA) comprised 20% of the mass, "low-volatility" oxygenated organic aerosol (LV-OOA) comprised 18 %, "biomass burning" organic aerosol (BBOA) comprised 23 %, non-wood solid-fuel combustion "peat and coal" organic aerosol (PCOA) comprised 21 %, and finally a species type characterized by primary m/z peaks at 41 and 55, similar to previously reported "cooking" organic aerosol (COA), but possessing different diurnal variations to what would be expected for cooking activities, contributed 18 %. Correlations between the different particle types obtained by the two aerosol mass spectrometers are also discussed. Despite wood, coal and peat being minor fuel types used for domestic space heating in urban areas, their relatively low combustion efficiencies result in a significant contribution to PM1 aerosol mass (44% and 28% of the total organic aerosol mass and non-refractory total PM1, respectively).

Modeling the Effect of Vapor Wall Deposition on the Formation of Secondary Organic Aerosol in Chamber Studies

Laboratory chamber experiments are used to investigate formation of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) from biogenic and anthropogenic precursors under a variety of environmental conditions. Simulations of these experiments test our understanding of the prevailing chemistry of SOA formation as well as the dynamic processes occurring in the chamber itself. One dynamic process occurring in the chamber that was only recently recognized is the deposition of vapor species to the Teflon walls of the chamber. Low-volatility products formed from the oxidation of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) deposit on the walls rather than forming SOA, decreasing the amount of SOA formed (quantified as the SOA yield: mass of SOA formed per mass of VOC reacted). In this work, several modeling studies are presented that address the effect of vapor wall deposition on SOA formation in chambers.

A coupled vapor-particle dynamics model is used to examine the competition among the rates of gas-phase oxidation to low volatility products, wall deposition of these products, and mass transfer to the particle phase. The relative time scales of these rates control the amount of SOA formed by affecting the influence of vapor wall deposition. Simulations show that an effect on SOA yield of changing the vapor-particle mass transfer rate is only observed when SOA formation is kinetically limited. For systems with kinetically limited SOA formation, increasing the rate of vapor-particle mass transfer by increasing the concentration of seed particles is an effective way to minimize the effect of vapor wall deposition.

This coupled vapor-particle dynamics model is then applied to α-pinene ozonolysis SOA experiments. Experiments show that the SOA yield is affected when changing the oxidation rate but not when changing the rate of gas-particle mass transfer by changing the concentration of seed particles. Model simulations show that the absence of an effect of changing the seed particle concentration is consistent with SOA formation being governed by quasi-equilibrium growth, in which gas-particle equilibrium is established much faster than the rate of change of the gas-phase concentration. The observed effect of oxidation rate on SOA yield arises due to the presence of vapor wall deposition: gas-phase oxidation products are produced more quickly and condense preferentially onto seed particles before being lost to the walls. Therefore, for α-pinene ozonolysis, increasing the oxidation rate is the most effective way to mitigate the influence of vapor wall deposition.

Finally, the detailed model GECKO-A (Generator for Explicit Chemistry and Kinetics of Organics in the Atmosphere) is used to simulate α-pinene photooxidation SOA experiments. Unexpectedly, α-pinene OH oxidation experiments show no effect when changing either the oxidation rate or the vapor-particle mass transfer rate, whereas GECKO-A predicts that changing the oxidation rate should drastically affect the SOA yield. Sensitivity studies show that the assumed magnitude of the vapor wall deposition rate can greatly affect conclusions drawn from comparisons between simulations and experiments. If vapor wall loss in the Caltech chamber is of order 10^-5 s^-1, GECKO-A greatly overpredicts SOA during high UV experiments, likely due to an overprediction of second-generation products. However, if instead vapor wall loss in the Caltech chamber is of order 10^-3 s^-1, GECKO-A greatly underpredicts SOA during low UV experiments, possibly due to missing autoxidation pathways in the α-pinene mechanism.

The relationship between implied and realized volatility : evidence from the Australian stock index option market

This paper examines the relationship between the volatility implied in option prices and the subsequently realized volatility by using the S&P/ASX 200 index options (XJO) traded on the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) during a period of 5 years. Unlike stock index options such as the S&P 100 index options in the US market, the S&P/ASX 200 index options are traded infrequently and in low volumes, and have a long maturity cycle. Thus an errors-in-variables problem for measurement of implied volatility is more likely to exist. After accounting for this problem by instrumental variable method, it is found that both call and put implied volatilities are superior to historical volatility in forecasting future realized volatility. Moreover, implied call volatility is nearly an unbiased forecast of future volatility.

Comparing different explanations of the volatility trend

We analyze the puzzling behavior of the volatility of individual stock returns over the past few decades. The literature has provided many different explanations to the trend in volatility and this paper tests the viability of the different explanations. Virtually all current theoretical arguments that are provided for the trend in the average level of volatility over time lend themselves to explanations about the difference in volatility levels between firms in the cross-section. We therefore focus separately on the cross-sectional and time-series explanatory power of the different proxies. We fail to find a proxy that is able to explain both dimensions well. In particular, we find that Cao et al. [Cao, C., Simin, T.T., Zhao, J., 2008. Can growth options explain the trend in idiosyncratic risk? Review of Financial Studies 21, 2599–2633] market-to-book ratio tracks average volatility levels well, but has no cross-sectional explanatory power. On the other hand, the low-price proxy suggested by Brandt et al. [Brandt, M.W., Brav, A., Graham, J.R., Kumar, A., 2010. The idiosyncratic volatility puzzle: time trend or speculative episodes. Review of Financial Studies 23, 863–899] has much cross-sectional explanatory power, but has virtually no time-series explanatory power. We also find that the different proxies do not explain the trend in volatility in the period prior to 1995 (R-squared of virtually zero), but explain rather well the trend in volatility at the turn of the Millennium (1995–2005).

Unrealized expectations of jumps in volatility: An explanation to the low and time-varying predictive power of implied volatility

The low predictive power of implied volatility in forecasting the subsequently realized volatility is a well-documented empirical puzzle. As suggested by e.g. Feinstein (1989), Jackwerth and Rubinstein (1996), and Bates (1997), we test whether unrealized expectations of jumps in volatility could explain this phenomenon. Our findings show that expectations of infrequently occurring jumps in volatility are indeed priced in implied volatility. This has two important consequences. First, implied volatility is actually expected to exceed realized volatility over long periods of time only to be greatly less than realized volatility during infrequently occurring periods of very high volatility. Second, the slope coefficient in the classic forecasting regression of realized volatility on implied volatility is very sensitive to the discrepancy between ex ante expected and ex post realized jump frequencies. If the in-sample frequency of positive volatility jumps is lower than ex ante assessed by the market, the classic regression test tends to reject the hypothesis of informational efficiency even if markets are informationally effective.

Pricing Index Options with Stochastic Volatility

The objective of this paper is to investigate the pricing accuracy under stochastic volatility where the volatility follows a square root process. The theoretical prices are compared with market price data (the German DAX index options market) by using two different techniques of parameter estimation, the method of moments and implicit estimation by inversion. Standard Black & Scholes pricing is used as a benchmark. The results indicate that the stochastic volatility model with parameters estimated by inversion using the available prices on the preceding day, is the most accurate pricing method of the three in this study and can be considered satisfactory. However, as the same model with parameters estimated using a rolling window (the method of moments) proved to be inferior to the benchmark, the importance of stable and correct estimation of the parameters is evident.

A decoupled whole-building simulation engine for rapid exhaustive search of low-carbon and low-energy building refurbishment options

This paper presents the development of a new building physics and energy supply systems simulation platform. It has been adapted from both existing commercial models and empirical works, but designed to provide expedient exhaustive simulation of all salient types of energy- and carbon-reducing retrofit options. These options may include any combination of behavioural measures, building fabric and equipment upgrades, improved HVAC control strategies, or novel low-carbon energy supply technologies. We provide a methodological description of the proposed model, followed by two illustrative case studies of the tool when used to investigate retrofit options of a mixed-use office building and primary school in the UK. It is not the intention of this paper, nor would it be feasible, to provide a complete engineering decomposition of the proposed model, describing all calculation processes in detail. Instead, this paper concentrates on presenting the particular engineering aspects of the model which steer away from conventional practise. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd.

A distributed algorithm for European options with nonlinear volatility

A distributed algorithm is developed to solve nonlinear Black-Scholes equations in the hedging of portfolios. The algorithm is based on an approximate inverse Laplace transform and is particularly suitable for problems that do not require detailed knowledge of each intermediate time steps.

Modelling the implied volatility of options on long gilt futures

This paper investigates the properties of implied volatility series calculated from options on Treasury bond futures, traded on LIFFE. We demonstrate that the use of near-maturity at the money options to calculate implied volatilities causes less mis-pricing and is therefore superior to, a weighted average measure encompassing all relevant options. We demonstrate that, whilst a set of macroeconomic variables has some predictive power for implied volatilities, we are not able to earn excess returns by trading on the basis of these predictions once we allow for typical investor transactions costs.

Low-frequency volatility of real estate securities in relation to macroeconomic risk

Real estate securities have a number of distinct characteristics that differentiate them from stocks generally. Key amongst them is that under-pinning the firms are both real as well as investment assets. The connections between the underlying macro-economy and listed real estate firms is therefore clearly demonstrated and of heightened importance. To consider the linkages with the underlying macro-economic fundamentals we extract the ‘low-frequency’ volatility component from aggregate volatility shocks in 11 international markets over the 1990-2014 period. This is achieved using Engle and Rangel’s (2008) Spline-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (Spline-GARCH) model. The estimated low-frequency volatility is then examined together with low-frequency macro data in a fixed-effect pooled regression framework. The analysis reveals that the low-frequency volatility of real estate securities has strong and positive association with most of the macroeconomic risk proxies examined. These include interest rates, inflation, GDP and foreign exchange rates.

Hedging options in a garch environment: testing the term structure of stochastic volatility models

This paper develops a methodology for testing the term structure of volatility forecasts derived from stochastic volatility models, and implements it to analyze models of S&P500 index volatility. U sing measurements of the ability of volatility models to hedge and value term structure dependent option positions, we fmd that hedging tests support the Black-Scholes delta and gamma hedges, but not the simple vega hedge when there is no model of the term structure of volatility. With various models, it is difficult to improve on a simple gamma hedge assuming constant volatility. Ofthe volatility models, the GARCH components estimate of term structure is preferred. Valuation tests indicate that all the models contain term structure information not incorporated in market prices.

Options listing and the volatility of the underlying asset: a study on the derivative market function

Os mercados de derivativos são vistos com muita desconfiança por inúmeras pessoas. O trabalho analisa o efeito da introdução de opções sobre ações no mercado brasileiro buscando identificar uma outra justificativa para a existência destes mercados: a alteração no nível de risco dos ativos objetos destas opções. A evidência empírica encontrada neste mercado está de acordo com os resultados obtidos em outros mercados - a introdução de opções é benéfica para o investidor posto que reduz a volatilidade do ativo objeto. Existe também uma tênue indicação de que a volatilidade se torna mais estocástica com a introdução das opções.