Long range forecasts of the numbers of Helicoverpa punctigera and H-armigera (Lepidoptera : Noctuidae) in Australia using the Southern Oscillation Index and the Sea Surface Temperature

The use of long-term forecasts of pest pressure is central to better pest management. We relate the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) to long-term light-trap catches of the two key moth pests of Australian agriculture, Helicoverpa punctigera (Wallengren) and H. armigera (Hubner), at Narrabri, New South Wales over 11 years, and for H. punctigera only at Turretfield, South Australia over 22 years. At Narrabri, the size of the first spring generation of both species was significantly correlated with the SOI in certain months, sometimes up to 15 months before the date of trapping. Differences in the SOI and SST between significant months were used to build composite variables in multiple regressions which gave fitted values of the trap catches to less than 25% of the observed values. The regressions suggested that useful forecasts of both species could be made 6-15 months ahead. The influence of the two weather variables on trap catches of H. punctigera at Turretfield were not as strong as at Narrabri, probably because the SOI was not as strongly related to rainfall in southern Australia as it is in eastern Australia. The best fits were again given by multiple regressions with SOI plus SST variables, to within 40% of the observed values. The reliability of both variables as predictors of moth numbers may be limited by the lack of stability in the SOI-rainfall correlation over the historical record. As no other data set is available to test the regressions, they can only be tested by future use. The use of long-term forecasts in pest management is discussed, and preliminary analyses of other long sets of insect numbers suggest that the Southern Oscillation Index may be a useful predictor of insect numbers in other parts of the world.

Sequence analysis, chromosomal distribution and long-range organization show that rapid turnover of new and old pBuM satellite DNA repeats leads to different patterns of variation in seven species of the Drosophila buzzatii cluster

We aimed to study patterns of variation and factors influencing the evolutionary dynamics of a satellite DNA, pBuM, in all seven Drosophila species from the buzzatii cluster (repleta group). We analyzed 117 alpha pBuM-1 (monomer length 190 bp) and 119 composite alpha/beta (370 bp) pBuM-2 repeats and determined the chromosome location and long-range organization on DNA fibers of major sequence variants. Such combined methodologies in the study of satDNAs have been used in very few organisms. In most species, concerted evolution is linked to high copy number of pBuM repeats. Species presenting low-abundance and scattered distributed pBuM repeats did not undergo concerted evolution and maintained part of the ancestral inter-repeat variability. The alpha and alpha/beta repeats colocalized in heterochromatic regions and were distributed on multiple chromosomes, with notable differences between species. High-resolution FISH revealed array sizes of a few kilobases to over 0.7 Mb and mutual arrangements of alpha and alpha/beta repeats along the same DNA fibers, but with considerable changes in the amount of each variant across species. From sequence, chromosomal and phylogenetic data, we could infer that homogenization and amplification events involved both new and ancestral pBuM variants. Altogether, the data on the structure and organization of the pBuM satDNA give insights into genome evolution including mechanisms that contribute to concerted evolution and diversification.

Long-term survivor mixture model with random effects: application to a multi-centre clinical trial of carcinoma

A mixture model incorporating long-term survivors has been adopted in the field of biostatistics where some individuals may never experience the failure event under study. The surviving fractions may be considered as cured. In most applications, the survival times are assumed to be independent. However, when the survival data are obtained from a multi-centre clinical trial, it is conceived that the environ mental conditions and facilities shared within clinic affects the proportion cured as well as the failure risk for the uncured individuals. It necessitates a long-term survivor mixture model with random effects. In this paper, the long-term survivor mixture model is extended for the analysis of multivariate failure time data using the generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) approach. The proposed model is applied to analyse a numerical data set from a multi-centre clinical trial of carcinoma as an illustration. Some simulation experiments are performed to assess the applicability of the model based on the average biases of the estimates formed. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Capillary bridging and long-range attractive forces in a mean-field approach

When a mixture is confined, one of the phases can condense out. This condensate, which is otherwise metastable in the bulk, is stabilized by the presence of surfaces. In a sphere-plane geometry, routinely used in atomic force microscope and surface force apparatus, it, can form a bridge connecting the surfaces. The pressure drop in the bridge gives rise to additional long-range attractive forces between them. By minimizing the free energy of a binary mixture we obtain the force-distance curves as well as the structural phase diagram of the configuration with the bridge. Numerical results predict a discontinuous transition between the states with and without the bridge and linear force-distance curves with hysteresis. We also show that similar phenomenon can be observed in a number of different systems, e.g., liquid crystals and polymer mixtures. (C). 2004 American Institute of Physics.

Genetic algorithm for shipping route estimation with long-range tracking data : automatic reconstruction of shipping routes based on the historical ship positions for maritime safety applications

Ship tracking systems allow Maritime Organizations that are concerned with the Safety at Sea to obtain information on the current location and route of merchant vessels. Thanks to Space technology in recent years the geographical coverage of the ship tracking platforms has increased significantly, from radar based near-shore traffic monitoring towards a worldwide picture of the maritime traffic situation. The long-range tracking systems currently in operations allow the storage of ship position data over many years: a valuable source of knowledge about the shipping routes between different ocean regions. The outcome of this Master project is a software prototype for the estimation of the most operated shipping route between any two geographical locations. The analysis is based on the historical ship positions acquired with long-range tracking systems. The proposed approach makes use of a Genetic Algorithm applied on a training set of relevant ship positions extracted from the long-term storage tracking database of the European Maritime Safety Agency (EMSA). The analysis of some representative shipping routes is presented and the quality of the results and their operational applications are assessed by a Maritime Safety expert.

Long-range heterogeneity at the 3' ends of human mRNAs.

The publication of a draft of the human genome and of large collections of transcribed sequences has made it possible to study the complex relationship between the transcriptome and the genome. In the work presented here, we have focused on mapping mRNA 3' ends onto the genome by use of the raw data generated by the expressed sequence tag (EST) sequencing projects. We find that at least half of the human genes encode multiple transcripts whose polyadenylation is driven by multiple signals. The corresponding transcript 3' ends are spread over distances in the kilobase range. This finding has profound implications for our understanding of gene expression regulation and of the diversity of human transcripts, for the design of cDNA microarray probes, and for the interpretation of gene expression profiling experiments.

Long-Range Goals for Iowa's Criminal & Juvenile Justice Systems, 2000

Iowa Code Section 216A.135 requires the Criminal and Juvenile Justice Planning Advisory Council (CJJPAC) to submit a long-range plan for Iowa's justice system to the Governor and General Assembly every five years. The first plan developed after the creation of the Division of Criminal and Juvenile Justice Planning was issued in 1990 and annually updated through 1994. Since 1992, appropriation law has required the CJJPAC to coordinate their planning activities with those of the Iowa Juvenile Justice Advisory Council (JJAC).

Long-Range Goals for Iowa's Criminal& Junvenile Justice Systems, 2005

The attached plan builds upon work done over the last decade. The first plan developed after the creation of the Division of Criminal and Juvenile Justice Planning in 1986 was issued in 1990 and annually updated through 1994. Since 1992, the CJJPAC has been required to coordinate their planning activities with those of the Iowa Juvenile Justice Advisory Council (JJAC). In 1995, these two councils developed a new plan consisting of a set of long-range justice system goals to assist policy makers and justice system practitioners as they plan and operate the justice system through the next twenty years. The statutory mandate for such long-range planning required the identification of goals specific enough to provide guidance, but broad enough to be of relevance over a long period of time. The long-range goals adopted by these councils in 1995 covered a wide variety of topics and offered a framework within which current practices could be defined and assessed. Collectively, these long-range goals were meant to provide a single source of direction to the complex assortment of practitioners and policymakers whose individual concerns and decisions collectively define the nature and effectiveness of Iowa’s justice system. The twenty-year goals established in 1995 were reviewed by the councils in 2000 to assess their current relevance. It was determined that, with a few revisions, the goals established in 1995 should be restated in 2000 with a renewed emphasis on their long-range status. This plan builds upon those issued in 1995 and 2000, continuing much of the emphasis of plans, with some new directions charted as appropriate.

GPS analysis of human locomotion: further evidence for long-range correlations in stride-to-stride fluctuations of gait parameters.

During free walking, gait is automatically adjusted to provide optimal mechanical output and minimal energy expenditure; gait parameters, such as cadence, fluctuate from one stride to the next around average values. It was described that this fluctuation exhibited long-range correlations and fractal-like patterns. In addition, it was suggested that these long-range correlations disappeared if the participant followed the beep of metronome to regulate his or her pace. Until now, these fractal fluctuations were only observed for stride interval, because no technique existed to adequately analyze an extended time of free walking. The aim of the present study was to measure walking speed (WS), step frequency (SF) and step length (SL) with high accuracy (<1 cm) satellite positioning method (global positioning system or GPS) in order to detect long-range correlations in the stride-to-stride fluctuations. Eight participants walked 30 min under free and constrained (metronome) conditions. Under free walking conditions, DFA (detrended fluctuation analysis) and surrogate data tests showed that the fluctuation of WS, SL and SF exhibited a fractal pattern (i.e., scaling exponent alpha: 0.5 < alpha < 1) in a large majority of participants (7/8). Under constrained conditions (metronome), SF fluctuations became significantly anti-correlated (alpha < 0.5) in all participants. However, the scaling exponent of SL and WS was not modified. We conclude that, when the walking pace is controlled by an auditory signal, the feedback loop between the planned movement (at supraspinal level) and the sensory inputs induces a continual shifting of SF around the mean (persistent anti-correlation), but with no effect on the fluctuation dynamics of the other parameters (SL, WS).

Detecting long-range chromatin interactions using the chromosome conformation capture sequencing (4C-seq) method.

Eukaryotic transcription is tightly regulated by transcriptional regulatory elements, even though these elements may be located far away from their target genes. It is now widely recognized that these regulatory elements can be brought in close proximity through the formation of chromatin loops, and that these loops are crucial for transcriptional regulation of their target genes. The chromosome conformation capture (3C) technique presents a snapshot of long-range interactions, by fixing physically interacting elements with formaldehyde, digestion of the DNA, and ligation to obtain a library of unique ligation products. Recently, several large-scale modifications to the 3C technique have been presented. Here, we describe chromosome conformation capture sequencing (4C-seq), a high-throughput version of the 3C technique that combines the 3C-on-chip (4C) protocol with next-generation Illumina sequencing. The method is presented for use in mammalian cell lines, but can be adapted to use in mammalian tissues and any other eukaryotic genome.

Semiclassical theory of shot noise in ballistic n+in+ semiconductor structures: relevance of Pauli and long range Coulomb interactions

We work out a semiclassical theory of shot noise in ballistic n+-i-n+ semiconductor structures aiming at studying two fundamental physical correlations coming from Pauli exclusion principle and long-range Coulomb interaction. The theory provides a unifying scheme which, in addition to the current-voltage characteristics, describes the suppression of shot noise due to Pauli and Coulomb correlations in the whole range of system parameters and applied bias. The whole scenario is summarized by a phase diagram in the plane of two dimensionless variables related to the sample length and contact chemical potential. Here different regions of physical interest can be identified where only Coulomb or only Pauli correlations are active, or where both are present with different relevance. The predictions of the theory are proven to be fully corroborated by Monte Carlo simulations.

Fragile-glass behavior of a short-range p-spin model

We propose a short-range generalization of the p-spin interaction spin-glass model. The model is well suited to test the idea that an entropy collapse is at the bottom line of the dynamical singularity encountered in structural glasses. The model is studied in three dimensions through Monte Carlo simulations, which put in evidence fragile glass behavior with stretched exponential relaxation and super-Arrhenius behavior of the relaxation time. Our data are in favor of a Vogel-Fulcher behavior of the relaxation time, related to an entropy collapse at the Kauzmann temperature. We, however, encounter difficulties analogous to those found in experimental systems when extrapolating thermodynamical data at low temperatures. We study the spin-glass susceptibility, investigating the behavior of the correlation length in the system. We find that the increase of the relaxation time is accompanied by a very slow growth of the correlation length. We discuss the scaling properties of off-equilibrium dynamics in the glassy regime, finding qualitative agreement with the mean-field theory.

Long-range correlations in diffusive systems away from equilibrium

We study the dynamics of density fluctuations in purely diffusive systems away from equilibrium. Under some conditions the static density correlation function becomes long ranged. We then analyze this behavior in the framework of nonequilibrium fluctuating hydrodynamics.

Criminal and Juvenile Justice Planning Advisory Council Progress on the Long-range Justice System Plan, January 2010

Iowa Code Section 216A.135 requires the Criminal and Juvenile Justice Planning Advisory Council (CJJPAC) to submit a long-range plan for Iowa's justice system to the Governor and General Assembly every five years. The Criminal and Juvenile Justice Advisory Council directed that the 2005 plan be developed with input from the public. A public hearing was held in September 2004, utilizing the Iowa Communications Network at five sites across Iowa. Using the information gained, the Council developed new goals and strategies and modified others from the 2000 plan. The 2005 Long Range Goals for Iowa’s Criminal and Juvenile Justice Systems, organized as follows, are meant to facilitate analyses and directions for justice system issues and concerns in Iowa.

Long-range ferromagnetic dipolar ordering of high-spin molecular clusters

We report the first example of a transition to long-range magnetic order in a purely dipolarly interacting molecular magnet. For the magnetic cluster compound Mn6O4Br4(Et2dbm)6, the anisotropy experienced by the total spin S=12 of each cluster is so small that spin-lattice relaxation remains fast down to the lowest temperatures, thus enabling dipolar order to occur within experimental times at Tc=0.16 K. In high magnetic fields, the relaxation rate becomes drastically reduced and the interplay between nuclear- and electron-spin lattice relaxation is revealed.