Detecting drift from event streams of unpredictable business processes

Existing business process drift detection methods do not work with event streams. As such, they are designed to detect inter-trace drifts only, i.e. drifts that occur between complete process executions (traces), as recorded in event logs. However, process drift may also occur during the execution of a process, and may impact ongoing executions. Existing methods either do not detect such intra-trace drifts, or detect them with a long delay. Moreover, they do not perform well with unpredictable processes, i.e. processes whose logs exhibit a high number of distinct executions to the total number of executions. We address these two issues by proposing a fully automated and scalable method for online detection of process drift from event streams. We perform statistical tests over distributions of behavioral relations between events, as observed in two adjacent windows of adaptive size, sliding along with the stream. An extensive evaluation on synthetic and real-life logs shows that our method is fast and accurate in the detection of typical change patterns, and performs significantly better than the state of the art.

Sustainability and Mission Drift in Microfinance

Microfinance institutions (MFIs) are constrained by double bottom-lines: meeting social obligations (the first bottom-line) and obtaining financial self-sufficiency (the second bottom-line). The proponents of the first bottom-line, however, are increasingly concerned that there is a trade-off between these two bottom-lines—i.e., getting hold of financial self-sufficiency may lead MFIs to drift away from their original social mission of serving the very poor, commonly known as mission drift in microfinance which is still a controversial issue. This study aims at addressing the concerns for mission drift in microfinance in a performance analysis framework. Chapter 1 deals with theoretical background, motivation and objectives of the topic. Then the study explores the validity of three major and related present-day concerns. Chapter 2 explores the impact of profitability on outreach-quality in MFIs, commonly known as mission drift, using a unique panel database that contains 4-9 years’ observations from 253 MFIs in 69 countries. Chapter 3 introduces factor analysis, a multivariate tool, in the process of analysing mission drift in microfinance and the exercise in this chapter demonstrates how the statistical tool of factor analysis can be utilised to examine this conjecture. In order to explore why some microfinance institutions (MFIs) perform better than others, Chapter 4 looks at factors which have an impact on several performance indicators of MFIs—profitability or sustainability, repayment status and cost indicators—based on quality-data on 353 institutions in 77 countries. The study also demonstrates whether such mission drift can be avoided while having self-sustainability. In Chapter 5 we examine the impact of capital and financing structure on the performance of microfinance institutions where estimations with instruments have been performed using a panel dataset of 782 MFIs in 92 countries for the period 2000-2007. Finally, Chapter 6 concludes the study by summarising the results from the previous chapters and suggesting some directions for future studies.

Fast- and drift-ice communities in the Bothnian Bay and the impact of UVA radiation on the Baltic Sea ice ecology

The aim of this thesis was to study ecology of Baltic Sea ice from two perspectives. In the first two studies, sea-ice ecology from riverine-influenced fast ice to drift ice in the Bothnian Bay was investigated, whereas the last two studies focus on the sensitivity of sea-ice bacteria and algae to UVA examined in situ. The seasonal sea ice cover is one of the main characteristics of the Baltic Sea, and despite the brackish parental water, the ice structure is similar to polar ice with saline brine inclusions, the sea ice habitat. The decreasing seawater salinity from the northern Baltic Sea to the Bothnian Bay translates to decreasing brine volumes along the gradient, governing the size and community structure of the food webs in ice. However, the drift and fast ice in the Bothnian Bay may differ greatly in this sense, as drift ice may have been formed at more southern locations. Rafting and the formation of snow ice are common processes in the ice field of the Bothnian Bay. As evidenced in this thesis, rafting altered the vertical distribution of organisms and snow-ice formation provided habitable space in the better-illuminated, nitrogen-rich surface layer. The divergence between fast and drift ice became apparent at the more advanced stages, and chlorophyte biomass decreased from fast to drift ice, while the opposite held true for protozoan and metazoan biomass. The brine volumes affected the communities somewhat, and a higher percentage of flagellate species was generally linked to lower brine volumes, whereas chain-forming diatoms were mostly concentrated in layers with larger brine volumes. These results add to knowledge of the ecological significance of the ice cover lasting up to 7 months per year in this area. Sea-ice food webs are generally light-limited, but while increasing light irradiances typically enhance the primary production and further, the secondary production in sea ice, any increase in solar radiation also includes an increase in harmful UVA radiation. The Baltic Sea ice microbial communities were clearly sensitive to UVA and the responses were strongly linked to the earlier light history, as well as to the solar irradiances they were exposed to. The increased biomass of chlorophytes and pennate diatoms, when UVA was excluded, indicates that their normally minor contribution to the biomass in the upper layers of sea ice might be partly dictated by UVA. The effects of UVA on bacterial production in Baltic Sea ice mostly followed the responses in algal growth, but occasionally the exposure to UVA even enhanced the bacterial production. The dominant bacterial class, Flavobacteria, seemed to be UVA-tolerant, whereas all the Alpha-, Beta- and Gammaproteobacteria present in the surface layer showed UVA sensitivity. These results indicate that changes in the light field of ice may alter the community structure and affect the functioning of ice food webs, and are of importance when the effects of thinning of the ice cover are assessed.

Data Fusion of Dual Foot-Mounted INS to Reduce the Systematic Heading Drift

In this report, we investigate the problem of applying a range constraint in order to reduce the systematic heading drift in a foot-mounted inertial navigation system (INS) (motion-tracking). We make use of two foot-mounted INS, one on each foot, which are aided with zero-velocity detectors. A novel algorithm is proposed in order to reduce the systematic heading drift. The proposed algorithm is based on the idea that the separation between the two feet at any given instance must always lie within a sphere of radius equal to the maximum possible spatial separation between the two feet. A Kalman filter, getting one measurement update and two observation updates is used in this algorithm.

Drift parameters optimization of a TPC polarimeter: a simulation study

Time Projection Chamber (TPC) based X-ray polarimeters using Gas Electron Multiplier (GEM) are currently being developed to make sensitive measurement of polarization in 2-10 keV energy range. The emission direction of the photoelectron ejected via photoelectric effect carries the information of the polarization of the incident X-ray photon. Performance of a gas based polarimeter is affected by the operating drift parameters such as gas pressure, drift field and drift-gap. We present simulation studies carried out in order to understand the effect of these operating parameters on the modulation factor of a TPC polarimeter. Models of Garfield are used to study photoelectron interaction in gas and drift of electron cloud towards GEM. Our study is aimed at achieving higher modulation factors by optimizing drift parameters. Study has shown that Ne/DME (50/50) at lower pressure and drift field can lead to desired performance of a TPC polarimeter.

Nanometer scale thermal drift of 4Gbit/s uncooled laser for tight-channel-spacing low-cost WDM

A 4Gbit/s directly modulated DBR laser is demonstrated with nanometre scale thermal tuning over an extended 20-70°C temperature range. >40dB side mode suppression over the entire temperature range is achieved. © 2005 Optical Society of America.

A Behavioral Foundation for Models of Evolutionary Drift

Binmore and Samuelson (1999) have shown that perturbations (drift) are crucial to study the stability properties of Nash equilibria. We contribute to this literature by providing a behavioural foundation for models of evolutionary drift. In particular, this article introduces a microeconomic model of drift based on the similarity theory developed by Tversky (1977), Kahneman and Tversky (1979) and Rubinstein (1988),(1998). An innovation with respect to those works is that we deal with similarity relations that are derived from the perception that each agent has about how well he is playing the game. In addition, the similarity relations are adapted to a dynamic setting. We obtain different models of drift depending on how we model the agent´s assessment of his behaviour in the game. The examples of the ultimatum game and the chain-store game are used to show the conditions for each model to stabilize elements in the component of Nash equilibria that are not subgame- perfect. It is also shown how some models approximate the laboratory data about those games while others match the data.

A Model of Evolutionay Drift

Drift appears to be crucial to study the stability properties of Nash equilibria in a component specifying different out-of-equilibrium behaviour. We propose a new microeconomic model of drift to be added to the learning process by which agents find their way to equilibrium. A key feature of the model is the sensitivity of the noisy agent to the proportion of agents in his player population playing the same strategy as his current one. We show that, 1. Perturbed Payoff-Positive and PayoffMonotone selection dynamics are capable of stabilizing pure non strict Nash equilibria in either singleton or nonsingleton component of equilibria; 2. The model is relevant to understand the role of drift in the behaviour observed in the laboratory for the Ultimatum Game and for predicting outcomes that can be experimentally tested. Hence, the selection dynamics model perturbed with the proposed drift may be seen as well as a new learning tool to understand observed behaviour.

A Drift Card Study in Monterey Bay, California, September 1971 to April 1973: Annual Report, Part 4, 1973

Drift cards were released in Monterey Bay, California, to detect seasonal variations in the California Current system, and seasonal and diurnal wind variations in the immediate vicinity of the bay. About 23% of the cards were recovered, although the recovery rate varied from about 5% in the winter to about 60% in the late summer. Drift card speeds ranged from 1 to 8 km/day, in the winter and summer months respectively. Good agreement was observed between geostrophic current, wind, drogue, and drift card data, although drift cards were observed to be primarily wind driven. A weekend bias in drift card recoveries was observed for the entire period of study; however, it was less pronounced for those cards released during the summer months. Two bogus releases were used to estimate the discovery lag time, reported position accuracy, and longshore drift currents. Diurnal winds were observed during a 24-hour study, and indicated daily variations in the wind field may be as important as seasonal changes in moving surface water. The drift card speed was observed to be about 3% of the wind velocity, and 1 m/sec was estimated as the minimum effective wind. The wind factor, ranging from 2.2% to 4.0%, was used to estimate the actual paths of drift cards and to examine the role of diurnal winds in affecting surface water movement. (PDF contains 79 pages)

Determination of direction of littoral transport along the north shore of Santa Rosa Island, Florida

The purpose of this study was to determine the actual direction of littoral transport along the north shore of Santa Rosa Island in the vicinity of Pensacola Beach, Florida. To accomplish this objective the sand tracer method was used for the study. Visual observations and instrument recordings of the environment factors were also made during the tracing operations. The investigation covered a time span from September 14, 1976 to March 12, 1977. (PDF contains 68 pages.)

Selectivity of Metsulfuron Methyl to Six Common Littoral Species in Florida

Many Central Florida lakes, particularly those in the Kissimmee River watershed, are maintained 0.5 to 1.0 m lower than historic (pre-1960) levels during the summer hurricane season for flood control purposes. These lower water levels have allowed proliferation and formation of dense monotypic populations of pickerelweed ( Pontederia cordata L.) and other broadleaf species that out compete more desirable native grasses (Hulon, pers. comm., 2002). Due to the limited availability of data on the effects of metsulfuron methyl on wetland plants, particularly in Florida, the present study was carried out with the objective of testing its phytotoxicity on six wetland species, to determine the feasibility of its use for primary pickerelweed control.

The littoral ascidians of Monterey Bay and vicinity

In addition to describing the species of tunicates found areound Monterey Bay California, it provides a taxonomic key. This is a student paper done for a University of California Berkeley Zoology class. Since UCB didn't have its own marine lab at the time, it rented space at Hopkins Marine Station where this work was done. Donald Putnam Abbott went on to earn his Ph.D. from Berkeley and later became a Stanford professor at Hopkins Marine Station. (PDF contains 35 pages)

Voyage dans le district des Diamans et sur le littoral du Brésil : suivi de notes sur quelques plantes caracteristiques et d'un precis de l'histoire des revolutions de l'empire bresilien, depuis le commencement du regne de Jean vi jusqu'a l'abdication de D. Pedro

As Voyages... são estudos completos, abrangendo todos os aspectos das regiões percorridas; servem de subsídio ao estudo das condições de vida no Brasil no século passado. "Fonte primordial de informações sobre os prédios coloniais do Rio de Janeiro, Minas Gerais, São Paulo, Santa Catarina e Goiás. Poucas obras no gênero atingem o valor de Saint-Hilarire. São clássicas e indispensáveis para o estudo do sul do Brasil, antes da Independência" segundo Borba de Moraes