Weakened tropical circulation and reduced precipitation in response to geoengineering

Geoengineering by injection of reflective aerosols into the stratosphere has been proposed as a way to counteract the warming effect of greenhouse gases by reducing the intensity of solar radiation reaching the surface. Here, climate model simulations are used to examine the effect of geoengineering on the tropical overturning circulation. The strength of the circulation is related to the atmospheric static stability and has implications for tropical rainfall. The tropical circulation is projected to weaken under anthropogenic global warming. Geoengineering with stratospheric sulfate aerosol does not mitigate this weakening of the circulation. This response is due to a fast adjustment of the troposphere to radiative heating from the aerosol layer. This effect is not captured when geoengineering is modelled as a reduction in total solar irradiance, suggesting caution is required when interpreting model results from solar dimming experiments as analogues for stratospheric aerosol geoengineering.

Compensation between resolved wave driving and parameterized orographic gravity wave driving of the Brewer–Dobson circulation and its response to climate change

Following recent findings, the interaction between resolved (Rossby) wave drag and parameterized orographic gravity wave drag (OGWD) is investigated, in terms of their driving of the Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC), in a comprehensive climate model. To this end, the parameter that effectively determines the strength of OGWD in present-day and doubled CO2 simulations is varied. The authors focus on the Northern Hemisphere during winter when the largest response of the BDC to climate change is predicted to occur. It is found that increases in OGWD are to a remarkable degree compensated by a reduction in midlatitude resolved wave drag, thereby reducing the impact of changes in OGWD on the BDC. This compensation is also found for the response to climate change: changes in the OGWD contribution to the BDC response to climate change are compensated by opposite changes in the resolved wave drag contribution to the BDC response to climate change, thereby reducing the impact of changes in OGWD on the BDC response to climate change. By contrast, compensation does not occur at northern high latitudes, where resolved wave driving and the associated downwelling increase with increasing OGWD, both for the present-day climate and the response to climate change. These findings raise confidence in the credibility of climate model projections of the strengthened BDC.

Clouds, circulation and climate sensitivity

Fundamental puzzles of climate science remain unsolved because of our limited understanding of how clouds, circulation and climate interact. One example is our inability to provide robust assessments of future global and regional climate changes. However, ongoing advances in our capacity to observe, simulate and conceptualize the climate system now make it possible to fill gaps in our knowledge. We argue that progress can be accelerated by focusing research on a handful of important scientific questions that have become tractable as a result of recent advances. We propose four such questions below; they involve understanding the role of cloud feedbacks and convective organization in climate, and the factors that control the position, the strength and the variability of the tropical rain belts and the extratropical storm tracks.

Decadal predictability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and climate in the IPSL-CM5A-LR model

This study explores the decadal potential predictability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) as represented in the IPSL-CM5A-LR model, along with the predictability of associated oceanic and atmospheric fields. Using a 1000-year control run, we analyze the prognostic potential predictability (PPP) of the AMOC through ensembles of simulations with perturbed initial conditions. Based on a measure of the ensemble spread, the modelled AMOC has an average predictive skill of 8 years, with some degree of dependence on the AMOC initial state. Diagnostic potential predictability of surface temperature and precipitation is also identified in the control run and compared to the PPP. Both approaches clearly bring out the same regions exhibiting the highest predictive skill. Generally, surface temperature has the highest skill up to 2 decades in the far North Atlantic ocean. There are also weak signals over a few oceanic areas in the tropics and subtropics. Predictability over land is restricted to the coastal areas bordering oceanic predictable regions. Potential predictability at interannual and longer timescales is largely absent for precipitation in spite of weak signals identified mainly in the Nordic Seas. Regions of weak signals show some dependence on AMOC initial state. All the identified regions are closely linked to decadal AMOC fluctuations suggesting that the potential predictability of climate arises from the mechanisms controlling these fluctuations. Evidence for dependence on AMOC initial state also suggests that studying skills from case studies may prove more useful to understand predictability mechanisms than computing average skill from numerous start dates.

Inter-comparison of stratospheric mean-meridional circulation and eddy mixing among six reanalysis data sets

The stratospheric mean-meridional circulation (MMC) and eddy mixing are compared among six meteorological reanalysis data sets: NCEP-NCAR, NCEP-CFSR, ERA-40, ERA-Interim, JRA-25, and JRA-55 for the period 1979–2012. The reanalysis data sets produced using advanced systems (i.e., NCEP-CFSR, ERA-Interim, and JRA-55) generally reveal a weaker MMC in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) compared with those produced using older systems (i.e., NCEP/NCAR, ERA-40, and JRA-25). The mean mixing strength differs largely among the data products. In the NH lower stratosphere, the contribution of planetary-scale mixing is larger in the new data sets than in the old data sets, whereas that of small-scale mixing is weaker in the new data sets. Conventional data assimilation techniques introduce analysis increments without maintaining physical balance, which may have caused an overly strong MMC and spurious small-scale eddies in the old data sets. At the NH mid-latitudes, only ERA-Interim reveals a weakening MMC trend in the deep branch of the Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC). The relative importance of the eddy mixing compared with the mean-meridional transport in the subtropical lower stratosphere shows increasing trends in ERA-Interim and JRA-55; this together with the weakened MMC in the deep branch may imply an increasing age-of-air (AoA) in the NH middle stratosphere in ERA-Interim. Overall, discrepancies between the different variables and trends therein as derived from the different reanalyses are still relatively large, suggesting that more investments in these products are needed in order to obtain a consolidated picture of observed changes in the BDC and the mechanisms that drive them.

Of Library Budgets and Scholarly Productivity: What Academics Analytics Can Tell Us about how Library Spending Impacts Scholarly Communication at Different Types of Universities

This presentation was offered as part of the CUNY Library Assessment Conference, Reinventing Libraries: Reinventing Assessment, held at the City University of New York in June 2014.

From a traditional academic library to a modern learning environment : Dalarna University Library - expectations and results

This report describes the ideas and vision behind Dalarna University's award-winning library in Falun. A description of the planning and construction processes and an evaluation of the final outcome are presented together with experiences and observations drawn from the project.

Population dynamics of DENV-1 genotype V in Brazil is characterized by co-circulation and strain/lineage replacement

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Report of the Workshop to Provide an Introduction to Basic Techniques for Library Organization and Services

Informe del taller de trabajo de capacitación en métodos de organización de colecciones, especialmente algunas de documentos adquiridos recientemente, y métodos para proveer acceso a la información y mejorar los servicios para los usuarios, en bibliotecas y servicios de información en San Vicente.

Circulation and salt intrusion in the Piaçaguera Channel, Santos (SP)

A análise de dados termohalinos e correntes medidos em uma estação fixa no Canal de Piaçaguera (Estuário de Santos) no inverno foi feita em termos de condições cíclicas da maré (quadratura e sizígia) e quase-estacionária, com o objetivo de caracterizar a estratificação da massa de água estuarina, sua circulação e transporte de sal forçados pela modulação quinzenal da maré. Foram utilizados métodos clássicos de análise de dados observacionais horários e quase sinóticos e de simulações analíticas de perfis estacionários de salinidade e do componente longitudinal da velocidade. Durante o ciclo de maré de quadratura as velocidades de enchente (v<0) e vazante (v>0) variaram de -0.20 m/s a 0.30 m/s, associadas à pequena variação de salinidade entre a superfície e o fundo (26.4 psu a 30.7 psu). No ciclo de sizígia a velocidade aumentou de -0.40 m/s a 0.45 m/s, mas a estratificação de salinidade permaneceu praticamente a mesma. Os perfis estacionários teóricos de salinidade e de velocidade apresentaram boa concordância (Skill próximo a 1,0) quando comparados aos perfis observacionais. Durante a modulação quinzenal da maré não houve alteração na classificação do canal estuarino (tipo 2a-parcialmente misturado e fracamente estratificado), pois a taxa de aumento da energia potencial não foi suficiente para ocasionar a erosão da haloclina. Esses resultados, associados à alta estabilidade vertical (RiL >20) e ao número de Richardson estuarino (1,6), permitem as seguintes conclusões: i) o mecanismo que forçou a circulação e os processos de mistura foi principalmente o balanço da descarga fluvial com a maré, associado ao componente baroclínico da força de gradiente de pressão; ii) não houve variações nas principais características termohalinas e da circulação devido à modulação quinzenal da maré; e iii) os perfis quase estacionários de salinidade e da velocidade foram adequadamente simulados com um modelo analítico clássico.

Modelling the surface circulation and thermal structure of a tropical reservoir using three-dimensional hydrodynamic lake model and remote-sensing data

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

An Intercomparison of Regional Atmospheric Circulation and the Melt Season Loss of Arctic Snow Cover and Sea Ice Extent Across the Land-Ocean Boundary

This study is designed to compare the monthly continental snow cover and sea ice extent loss in the Arctic with regional atmospheric conditions including: mean sea level pressure, 925 hPa air temperature, and mean wind direction among others during the melt season (March-August) over the 29-year study period 1979-2007. Little research has gone into studying the concurrent variations in the annual loss of continental snow cover and sea ice extent across the land-ocean boundary, since these data are largely stored in incompatible formats. However, the analysis of these data, averaged spatially over three autonomous study regions located in Siberia, North America, and Western Russia, reveals a distinct difference in the response of snow and sea ice to the atmospheric forcing. On average, sea ice extent is lost earlier in the year, in May, than snow cover, in June, although Arctic sea ice is located farther north than continental snow in all three study regions. Once the loss of snow and ice extent begins, snow cover is completely removed sooner than sea ice extent, even though ice loss begins earlier in the melt season. Further, the analysis of the atmospheric conditions surrounding loss of snow and ice cover over the independent study regions indicates that conditions of cool temperatures with strong northeasterly winds in the later melt season months are effective at removing sea ice cover, likely through ice divergence, as are warmer temperatures via southerly winds directly forcing melt. The results of this study set the framework for further analysis of the direct influence of snow cover loss on later melt season sea ice extents and the predictability of snow and sea ice extent responses to modeled future climate conditions

CIRCULATION AND SUSPENDED PARTICULATE MATTER TRANSPORT IN A TIDALLY DOMINATED ESTUARY: CARAVELAS ESTUARY, BAHIA, BRAZIL

The circulation and transport of suspended particulate matter in the Caravelas Estuary are assessed. Nearly-synoptic hourly hydrographic, current (ADCP velocity and volume transport) and suspended particulate matter data were collected during a full semidiurnal spring tide, on the two transects Boca do Tomba and Barra Velha and on longitudinal sections at low and high tide. On the first transect the peak ebb currents (-1.5 ms(-1)) were almost twice as strong as those of the wider and shallow Barra Velha inlet (-0.80 ms(-1)) and the peak flood currents were 0.75 and 0.60 ms(-1), respectively. Due to the strong tidal currents both inlets had weak vertical salinity stratification and were classified with the Stratification-circulation Diagram as Type 2a (partially mixed-weakly stratified) and Type 1a (well mixed). Volume transports were very close, ranging from -3,500 to 3,100 m(3)s(-1) at the ebb and flood, respectively, with a residual -630 m(3)s(-1). The concentration of the suspended particulate matter was closely related to the tidal variation and decreased landwards from 50 mg. L(-1) at the estuary mouth, to 10 mg.L(-1) at distances of 9 and 16 km for the low and high tide experiments, respectively. The total residual SPM transport was out of the estuary at rates of -18 tons per tidal cycle.

CIRCULATION AND SALT INTRUSION IN THE PIACAGUERA CHANNEL, SANTOS (SP)

Analysis of thermohaline properties and currents sampled at an anchor station in the Piacaguera Channel (Santos Estuary) in the austral winter was made in terms of tidal (neap and spring tidal cycles) and non-tidal conditions, with the objective to characterize the stratification, circulation and salt transport due to the fortnightly tidal modulation. Classical methods of observational data analysis of hourly and nearly synoptic observations and analytical simulations of nearly steady-state salinity and longitudinal velocity profiles were used. During the neap tidal cycle the flood (v<0) and ebb (v>0) velocities varied in the range of -0.20 m/s to 0.30 m/s associated with a small salinity variation from surface to bottom (26.4 psu to 30.7 psu). In the spring tidal cycle the velocities increased and varied in the range of -0.40 m/s to 0.45 m/s, but the salinity stratification remained almost unaltered. The steady-state salinity and velocity profiles simulated with an analytical model presented good agreement (Skill near 1.0), in comparison with the observational profiles. During the transitional fortnightly tidal modulation period there was no changes in the channel classification (type 2a - partially mixed and weakly stratified), because the potential energy rate was to low to enhance the halocline erosion. These results, associated with the high water column vertical stability (RiL > 20) and the low estuarine Richardson number (RiE = 1.6), lead to the conclusions: i) the driving mechanism for the estuary circulation and mixing was mainly balanced by the fresh water discharge and the tidal forcing associated with the baroclinic component of the gradient pressure force; ii) there was no changes in the thermohaline and circulation characteristics due to the forthnigtly tidal modulation; and iii) the nearly steady-state of the vertical salinity and velocity profiles were well simulated with a theoretical classical analytical model.

Circulation and salt intrusion in the Piaçaguera Channel, Santos (SP)

Analysis of thermohaline properties and currents sampled at an anchor station in the Piaçaguera Channel (Santos Estuary) in the austral winter was made in terms of tidal (neap and spring tidal cycles) and non-tidal conditions, with the objective to characterize the stratification, circulation and salt transport due to the fortnightly tidal modulation. Classical methods of observational data analysis of hourly and nearly synoptic observations and analytical simulations of nearly steady-state salinity and longitudinal velocity profiles were used. During the neap tidal cycle the flood (v<0) and ebb (v>0) velocities varied in the range of -0.20 m/s to 0.30 m/s associated with a small salinity variation from surface to bottom (26.4 psu to 30.7 psu). In the spring tidal cycle the velocities increased and varied in the range of -0.40 m/s to 0.45 m/s, but the salinity stratification remained almost unaltered. The steady-state salinity and velocity profiles simulated with an analytical model presented good agreement (Skill near 1.0), in comparison with the observational profiles. During the transitional fortnightly tidal modulation period there was no changes in the channel classification (type 2a - partially mixed and weakly stratified), because the potential energy rate was to low to enhance the halocline erosion. These results, associated with the high water column vertical stability (RiL >20) and the low estuarine Richardson number (RiE=1.6), lead to the conclusions: i) the driving mechanism for the estuary circulation and mixing was mainly balanced by the fresh water discharge and the tidal forcing associated with the baroclinic component of the gradient pressure force; ii) there was no changes in the thermohaline and circulation characteristics due to the forthnigtly tidal modulation; and iii) the nearly steady-state of the vertical salinity and velocity profiles were well simulated with a theoretical classical analytical model.