Suomen maatalouden tuottamat kasvihuonekaasujen päästöt eri politiikkaskenaarioissa

Climate change is the single biggest environmental problem in the world at the moment. Although the effects are still not fully understood and there is considerable amount of uncertainty, many na-tions have decided to mitigate the change. On the societal level, a planner who tries to find an eco-nomically optimal solution to an environmental pollution problem seeks to reduce pollution from the sources where reductions are most cost-effective. This study aims to find out how effective the instruments of the agricultural policy are in the case of climate change mitigation in Finland. The theoretical base of this study is the neoclassical economic theory that is based on the assumption of a rational economic agent who maximizes his own utility. This theoretical base has been widened towards the direction clearly essential to the matter: the theory of environmental eco-nomics. Deeply relevant to this problem and central in the theory of environmental economics are the concepts of externalities and public goods. What are also relevant are the problems of global pollution and non-point-source pollution. Econometric modelling was the method that was applied to this study. The Finnish part of the AGMEMOD-model, covering the whole EU, was used for the estimation of the development of pollution. This model is a seemingly recursive, partially dynamic partial-equilibrium model that was constructed to predict the development of Finnish agricultural production of the most important products. For the study, I personally updated the model and also widened its scope in some relevant matters. Also, I devised a table that can calculate the emissions of greenhouse gases according to the rules set by the IPCC. With the model I investigated five alternative scenarios in comparison to the base-line scenario of Agenda 2000 agricultural policy. The alternative scenarios were: 1) the CAP reform of 2003, 2) free trade on agricultural commodities, 3) technological change, 4) banning the cultivation of organic soils and 5) the combination of the last three scenarios as the maximal achievement in reduction. The maximal achievement in the alternative scenario 5 was 1/3 of the level achieved on the base-line scenario. CAP reform caused only a minor reduction when com-pared to the base-line scenario. Instead, the free trade scenario and the scenario of technological change alone caused a significant reduction. The biggest single reduction was achieved by banning the cultivation of organic land. However, this was also the most questionable scenario to be real-ized, the reasons for this are further elaborated in the paper. The maximal reduction that can be achieved in the Finnish agricultural sector is about 11 % of the emission reduction that is needed to comply with the Kyoto protocol.

Forest inventory-based large-scale forest biomass and carbon budget assessment: new enhanced methods and use of remote sensing for verification

In recent years, concern has arisen over the effects of increasing carbon dioxide (CO2) in the earth's atmosphere due to the burning of fossil fuels. One way to mitigate increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate change is carbon sequestration to forest vegeta-tion through photosynthesis. Comparable regional scale estimates for the carbon balance of forests are therefore needed for scientific and political purposes. The aim of the present dissertation was to improve methods for quantifying and verifying inventory-based carbon pool estimates of the boreal forests in the mineral soils. Ongoing forest inventories provide a data based on statistically sounded sampling for estimating the level of carbon stocks and stock changes, but improved modelling tools and comparison of methods are still needed. In this dissertation, the entire inventory-based large-scale forest carbon stock assessment method was presented together with some separate methods for enhancing and comparing it. The enhancement methods presented here include ways to quantify the biomass of understorey vegetation as well as to estimate the litter production of needles and branches. In addition, the optical remote sensing method illustrated in this dis-sertation can be used to compare with independent data. The forest inventory-based large-scale carbon stock assessment method demonstrated here provided reliable carbon estimates when compared with independent data. Future ac-tivity to improve the accuracy of this method could consist of reducing the uncertainties regarding belowground biomass and litter production as well as the soil compartment. The methods developed will serve the needs for UNFCCC reporting and the reporting under the Kyoto Protocol. This method is principally intended for analysts or planners interested in quantifying carbon over extensive forest areas.

Country-scale carbon accounting of the vegetation and mineral soils of Finland

The increase in global temperature has been attributed to increased atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG), mainly that of CO2. The threat of severe and complex socio-economic and ecological implications of climate change have initiated an international process that aims to reduce emissions, to increase C sinks, and to protect existing C reservoirs. The famous Kyoto protocol is an offspring of this process. The Kyoto protocol and its accords state that signatory countries need to monitor their forest C pools, and to follow the guidelines set by the IPCC in the preparation, reporting and quality assessment of the C pool change estimates. The aims of this thesis were i) to estimate the changes in carbon stocks vegetation and soil in the forests in Finnish forests from 1922 to 2004, ii) to evaluate the applied methodology by using empirical data, iii) to assess the reliability of the estimates by means of uncertainty analysis, iv) to assess the effect of forest C sinks on the reliability of the entire national GHG inventory, and finally, v) to present an application of model-based stratification to a large-scale sampling design of soil C stock changes. The applied methodology builds on the forest inventory measured data (or modelled stand data), and uses statistical modelling to predict biomasses and litter productions, as well as a dynamic soil C model to predict the decomposition of litter. The mean vegetation C sink of Finnish forests from 1922 to 2004 was 3.3 Tg C a-1, and in soil was 0.7 Tg C a-1. Soil is slowly accumulating C as a consequence of increased growing stock and unsaturated soil C stocks in relation to current detritus input to soil that is higher than in the beginning of the period. Annual estimates of vegetation and soil C stock changes fluctuated considerably during the period, were frequently opposite (e.g. vegetation was a sink but soil was a source). The inclusion of vegetation sinks into the national GHG inventory of 2003 increased its uncertainty from between -4% and 9% to ± 19% (95% CI), and further inclusion of upland mineral soils increased it to ± 24%. The uncertainties of annual sinks can be reduced most efficiently by concentrating on the quality of the model input data. Despite the decreased precision of the national GHG inventory, the inclusion of uncertain sinks improves its accuracy due to the larger sectoral coverage of the inventory. If the national soil sink estimates were prepared by repeated soil sampling of model-stratified sample plots, the uncertainties would be accounted for in the stratum formation and sample allocation. Otherwise, the increases of sampling efficiency by stratification remain smaller. The highly variable and frequently opposite annual changes in ecosystem C pools imply the importance of full ecosystem C accounting. If forest C sink estimates will be used in practice average sink estimates seem a more reasonable basis than the annual estimates. This is due to the fact that annual forest sinks vary considerably and annual estimates are uncertain, and they have severe consequences for the reliability of the total national GHG balance. The estimation of average sinks should still be based on annual or even more frequent data due to the non-linear decomposition process that is influenced by the annual climate. The methodology used in this study to predict forest C sinks can be transferred to other countries with some modifications. The ultimate verification of sink estimates should be based on comparison to empirical data, in which case the model-based stratification presented in this study can serve to improve the efficiency of the sampling design.

Sustainability After Rio

It is now 20 years since the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development, better known as the Earth Summit was held in Rio de Janeiro. An important achievement of the conference was an agreement on the Climate Change Convention which in turn led to the Kyoto Protocol. Another was agreement to 'not carry out any activities on the lands of indigenous peoples that would cause environmental degradation or that would be culturally inappropriate'. Recently we have seen an updated and revised conference in Rio where the same issues were again discussed. Since then ideas about sustainability have changed considerably and to some extent they have merged with ideas about corporate social responsibility and about governance, determined by the economic and political fortunes of the actors involved. It is now time therefore to re-examine the concept of sustainability in the aftermath of this conference and to consider what issues are now considered pertinent around the world. This book therefore takes different positions concerning different aspects of this vital topic.

Assessing the mitigation potential of forestry activities in a changing climate: A case study for Karnataka

The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), Article 12 of the Kyoto Protocol allows Afforestation and Reforestation (A/R) projects as mitigation activities to offset the CO2 in the atmosphere whilst simultaneously seeking to ensure sustainable development for the host country. The Kyoto Protocol was ratified by the Government of India in August 2002 and one of India's objectives in acceding to the Protocol was to fulfil the prerequisites for implementation of projects under the CDM in accordance with national sustainable priorities. The objective of this paper is to assess the effectiveness of using large-scale forestry projects under the CDM in achieving its twin goals using Karnataka State as a case study. The Generalized Comprehensive Mitigation Assessment Process (GCOMAP) Model is used to observe the effect of varying carbon prices on the land available for A/R projects. The model is coupled with outputs from the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) Dynamic Global Vegetation Model to incorporate the impacts of temperature rise due to climate change under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2, A1B and B1. With rising temperatures and CO2, vegetation productivity is increased under A2 and A1B scenarios and reduced under B1. Results indicate that higher carbon price paths produce higher gains in carbon credits and accelerate the rate at which available land hits maximum capacity thus acting as either an incentive or disincentive for landowners to commit their lands to forestry mitigation projects. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Climate change, sustainable development and India: Global and national concerns

Climate change is one of the most important global environmental challenges, with implications for food production, water supply, health, energy, etc. Addressing climate change requires a good scientific understanding as well as coordinated action at national and global level. This paper addresses these challenges. Historically, the responsibility for greenhouse gas emissions' increase lies largely with the industrialized world, though the developing countries are likely to be the source of an increasing proportion of future emissions. The projected climate change under various scenarios is likely to have implications on food production, water supply, coastal settlements, forest ecosystems, health, energy security, etc. The adaptive capacity of communities likely to be impacted by climate change is low in developing countries. The efforts made by the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol provisions are clearly inadequate to address the climate change challenge. The most effective way to address climate change is to adopt a sustainable development pathway by shifting to environmentally sustainable technologies and promotion of energy efficiency, renewable energy, forest conservation, reforestation, water conservation, etc. The issue of highest importance to developing countries is reducing the vulnerability of their natural and socio-economic systems to the projected climate change. India and other developing countries will face the challenge of promoting mitigation and adaptation strategies, bearing the cost of such an effort, and its implications for economic development.

Long Term Dynamics in CO2 Allowance Prices and Carbon Capture Investments

In this paper we analyse the behaviour of the EU market for CO2 emission allowances; specifically, we focus on the contracts maturing in the Kyoto Protocol's second period of application (2008 to 2012). We calibrate the underlying parameters for the allowance price in the long run and we also calibrate those from the Spanish wholesale electricity market. This information is then used to assess the option to install a carbon capture and storage (CCS) unit in a coal-fired power plant. We use a two-dimensional binomial lattice where costs and profits are valued and the optimal investment time is determined. In other words, we study the trigger allowance prices above which it is optimal to install the capture unit immediately. We further analyse the impact of several variables on the critical prices, among them allowance price volatility and a hypothetical government subsidy. We conclude that, at current permit prices, from a financial point of view, immediate installation does not seem justified. This need not be the case, though, if carbon market parameters change dramatically and/or a specific policy to promote these units is adopted.

The Cancun Climate Summit: a Moderate Success

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The Role of Regions in Climate Change Policy

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Climate Change and Its Socioeconomic Importance

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Certificación energética de la vivienda de Iker Elizundia Lopez y proyecto de posibles mejoras

[ES]Teniendo en cuenta la actual normativa europea y española, que tiene como objetivo principal el cumplimiento de la reducción de emisiones que se recoge en el protocolo de Kyoto y en el plan 20/20/20, en el siguiente trabajo se ha realizado la certificación energética de la vivienda de Iker Elizundia Lopez, que ha resultado en una calificación de F. Además, se ha propuesto una serie de mejoras con objeto de conseguir una calificación de D, mínimo legal para edificios de nueva construcción. Dichas mejoras, suponen una reducción del 63% de las emisiones, así como un considerable ahorro económico.

Aporte adicional de energía renovable geotérmica a instalación con cogeneración en hospital existente.

[ES]Este proyecto tiene como objetivo apoyar a la generación de energía por cogeneración mediante una fuente de energía renovable. Se pretende plantear una solución que satisfaga parte de las necesidades básicas del Hospital Universitario de Álava, en su sede del Hospital de Santiago, de una forma económicamente rentable. Este proyecto se enmarca dentro de los esfuerzos en la promoción de energías renovables que comenzaron con el protocolo Kioto, al que le siguieron los objetivos Europa 20/20/20. Se realizará un acercamiento a la utilización de la energía renovable geotérmica como fuente de energía que disminuye el impacto ambiental. El edificio hospitalario considerado ya cuenta con un sistema de generación energética con cogeneración, considerada dentro del régimen especial, por la utilización de energía residual para procesos que de otra manera hubieran requerido consumo de combustible. Se plantearán diferentes alternativas para la generación de energía térmica con geotermia, que al ser de origen renovable, es una fuente de energía de combustibles no fósiles, y se demostraran sus beneficios analizando cómo mejora la huella de carbono del hospital con la propuesta. Finalmente, para valorar si se trata de un proyecto viable se planteará el estudio económico analizando el presupuesto y análisis de rentabilidad.

Specification of optimum holistic building environmental and energy performance information to support informed decision making

Political drivers such as the Kyoto protocol, the EU Energy Performance of Buildings Directive and the Energy end use and Services Directive have been implemented in response to an identified need for a reduction in human related CO2 emissions. Buildings account for a significant portion of global CO2 emissions, approximately 25-30%, and it is widely acknowledged by industry and research organisations that they operate inefficiently. In parallel, unsatisfactory indoor environmental conditions have proven to negatively impact occupant productivity. Legislative drivers and client education are seen as the key motivating factors for an improvement in the holistic environmental and energy performance of a building. A symbiotic relationship exists between building indoor environmental conditions and building energy consumption. However traditional Building Management Systems and Energy Management Systems treat these separately. Conventional performance analysis compares building energy consumption with a previously recorded value or with the consumption of a similar building and does not recognise the fact that all buildings are unique. Therefore what is required is a new framework which incorporates performance comparison against a theoretical building specific ideal benchmark. Traditionally Energy Managers, who work at the operational level of organisations with respect to building performance, do not have access to ideal performance benchmark information and as a result cannot optimally operate buildings. This thesis systematically defines Holistic Environmental and Energy Management and specifies the Scenario Modelling Technique which in turn uses an ideal performance benchmark. The holistic technique uses quantified expressions of building performance and by doing so enables the profiled Energy Manager to visualise his actions and the downstream consequences of his actions in the context of overall building operation. The Ideal Building Framework facilitates the use of this technique by acting as a Building Life Cycle (BLC) data repository through which ideal building performance benchmarks are systematically structured and stored in parallel with actual performance data. The Ideal Building Framework utilises transformed data in the form of the Ideal Set of Performance Objectives and Metrics which are capable of defining the performance of any building at any stage of the BLC. It is proposed that the union of Scenario Models for an individual building would result in a building specific Combination of Performance Metrics which would in turn be stored in the BLC data repository. The Ideal Data Set underpins the Ideal Set of Performance Objectives and Metrics and is the set of measurements required to monitor the performance of the Ideal Building. A Model View describes the unique building specific data relevant to a particular project stakeholder. The energy management data and information exchange requirements that underlie a Model View implementation are detailed and incorporate traditional and proposed energy management. This thesis also specifies the Model View Methodology which complements the Ideal Building Framework. The developed Model View and Rule Set methodology process utilises stakeholder specific rule sets to define stakeholder pertinent environmental and energy performance data. This generic process further enables each stakeholder to define the resolution of data desired. For example, basic, intermediate or detailed. The Model View methodology is applicable for all project stakeholders, each requiring its own customised rule set. Two rule sets are defined in detail, the Energy Manager rule set and the LEED Accreditor rule set. This particular measurement generation process accompanied by defined View would filter and expedite data access for all stakeholders involved in building performance. Information presentation is critical for effective use of the data provided by the Ideal Building Framework and the Energy Management View definition. The specifications for a customised Information Delivery Tool account for the established profile of Energy Managers and best practice user interface design. Components of the developed tool could also be used by Facility Managers working at the tactical and strategic levels of organisations. Informed decision making is made possible through specified decision assistance processes which incorporate the Scenario Modelling and Benchmarking techniques, the Ideal Building Framework, the Energy Manager Model View, the Information Delivery Tool and the established profile of Energy Managers. The Model View and Rule Set Methodology is effectively demonstrated on an appropriate mixed use existing ‘green’ building, the Environmental Research Institute at University College Cork, using the Energy Management and LEED rule sets. Informed Decision Making is also demonstrated using a prototype scenario for the demonstration building.

Carbon Markets: Past, Present, and Future

Carbon markets are substantial and they are expanding. There are many lessons from experiences over the past eight years: fewer free allowances, better management of market-sensitive information, and a recognition that trading systems require adjustments that have consequences for market participants and market confidence. Moreover, the emerging international architecture features separate emissions trading systems serving distinct jurisdictions. These programs are complemented by a variety of other types of policies alongside the carbon markets. This sits in sharp contrast to the integrated global trading architecture envisioned 15 years ago by the designers of the Kyoto Protocol and raises a suite of new questions. In this new architecture, jurisdictions with emissions trading have to decide how, whether, and when to link with one another, and policymakers overseeing carbon markets must confront how to measure the comparability of efforts among markets and relative to a variety of other policy approaches.

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Carbon markets: Past, present, and future

© 2014 by Annual Reviews.Carbon markets are substantial and expanding. There are many lessons from experience over the past 9 years: fewer free allowances, careful moderation of low and high prices, and a recognition that trading systems require adjustments that have consequences for market participants and market confidence. Moreover, the emerging international architecture features separate emissions trading systems serving distinct jurisdictions. These programs are complemented by a variety of other types of policies alongside the carbon markets. This architecture sits in sharp contrast to the integrated global trading architecture envisioned 15 years ago by the designers of the Kyoto Protocol and raises a suite of new questions. In this new architecture, jurisdictions with emissions trading have to decide how, whether, and when to link with one another, and policy makers must confront how to measure both the comparability of efforts among markets and the comparability between markets and a variety of other policy approaches.