Some last thoughts on compositional data analysis

One of the disadvantages of old age is that there is more past than future: this,however, may be turned into an advantage if the wealth of experience and, hopefully,wisdom gained in the past can be reflected upon and throw some light on possiblefuture trends. To an extent, then, this talk is necessarily personal, certainly nostalgic,but also self critical and inquisitive about our understanding of the discipline ofstatistics. A number of almost philosophical themes will run through the talk: searchfor appropriate modelling in relation to the real problem envisaged, emphasis onsensible balances between simplicity and complexity, the relative roles of theory andpractice, the nature of communication of inferential ideas to the statistical layman, theinter-related roles of teaching, consultation and research. A list of keywords might be:identification of sample space and its mathematical structure, choices betweentransform and stay, the role of parametric modelling, the role of a sample spacemetric, the underused hypothesis lattice, the nature of compositional change,particularly in relation to the modelling of processes. While the main theme will berelevance to compositional data analysis we shall point to substantial implications forgeneral multivariate analysis arising from experience of the development ofcompositional data analysis…

Dynamic graphics of parametrically linked multivariate methods used in compositional data analysis

Many multivariate methods that are apparently distinct can be linked by introducing oneor more parameters in their definition. Methods that can be linked in this way arecorrespondence analysis, unweighted or weighted logratio analysis (the latter alsoknown as "spectral mapping"), nonsymmetric correspondence analysis, principalcomponent analysis (with and without logarithmic transformation of the data) andmultidimensional scaling. In this presentation I will show how several of thesemethods, which are frequently used in compositional data analysis, may be linkedthrough parametrizations such as power transformations, linear transformations andconvex linear combinations. Since the methods of interest here all lead to visual mapsof data, a "movie" can be made where where the linking parameter is allowed to vary insmall steps: the results are recalculated "frame by frame" and one can see the smoothchange from one method to another. Several of these "movies" will be shown, giving adeeper insight into the similarities and differences between these methods.

Diagnostic techniques applied in geostatistics for agricultural data analysis

The structural modeling of spatial dependence, using a geostatistical approach, is an indispensable tool to determine parameters that define this structure, applied on interpolation of values at unsampled points by kriging techniques. However, the estimation of parameters can be greatly affected by the presence of atypical observations in sampled data. The purpose of this study was to use diagnostic techniques in Gaussian spatial linear models in geostatistics to evaluate the sensitivity of maximum likelihood and restrict maximum likelihood estimators to small perturbations in these data. For this purpose, studies with simulated and experimental data were conducted. Results with simulated data showed that the diagnostic techniques were efficient to identify the perturbation in data. The results with real data indicated that atypical values among the sampled data may have a strong influence on thematic maps, thus changing the spatial dependence structure. The application of diagnostic techniques should be part of any geostatistical analysis, to ensure a better quality of the information from thematic maps.

On the Schoenberg transformations in data analysis: theory and illustrations

The class of Schoenberg transformations, embedding Euclidean distances into higher dimensional Euclidean spaces, is presented, and derived from theorems on positive definite and conditionally negative definite matrices. Original results on the arc lengths, angles and curvature of the transformations are proposed, and visualized on artificial data sets by classical multidimensional scaling. A distance-based discriminant algorithm and a robust multidimensional centroid estimate illustrate the theory, closely connected to the Gaussian kernels of Machine Learning.

Development of LRFD Procedures for Bridge Pile Foundations in Iowa: Volume II: Field Testing of Steel Piles in Clay, Sand, and Mixed Soils and Data Analysis, September 2011

In response to the mandate on Load and Resistance Factor Design (LRFD) implementations by the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) on all new bridge projects initiated after October 1, 2007, the Iowa Highway Research Board (IHRB) sponsored these research projects to develop regional LRFD recommendations. The LRFD development was performed using the Iowa Department of Transportation (DOT) Pile Load Test database (PILOT). To increase the data points for LRFD development, develop LRFD recommendations for dynamic methods, and validate the results ofLRFD calibration, 10 full-scale field tests on the most commonly used steel H-piles (e.g., HP 10 x 42) were conducted throughout Iowa. Detailed in situ soil investigations were carried out, push-in pressure cells were installed, and laboratory soil tests were performed. Pile responses during driving, at the end of driving (EOD), and at re-strikes were monitored using the Pile Driving Analyzer (PDA), following with the CAse Pile Wave Analysis Program (CAPWAP) analysis. The hammer blow counts were recorded for Wave Equation Analysis Program (WEAP) and dynamic formulas. Static load tests (SLTs) were performed and the pile capacities were determined based on the Davisson’s criteria. The extensive experimental research studies generated important data for analytical and computational investigations. The SLT measured loaddisplacements were compared with the simulated results obtained using a model of the TZPILE program and using the modified borehole shear test method. Two analytical pile setup quantification methods, in terms of soil properties, were developed and validated. A new calibration procedure was developed to incorporate pile setup into LRFD.

Missouri Work Zone Capacity: Results of Field Data Analysis, TPF-5(081), 2011

This report presents the results of work zone field data analyzed on interstate highways in Missouri to determine the mean breakdown and queue-discharge flow rates as measures of capacity. Several days of traffic data collected at a work zone near Pacific, Missouri with a speed limit of 50 mph were analyzed in both the eastbound and westbound directions. As a result, a total of eleven breakdown events were identified using average speed profiles. The traffic flows prior to and after the onset of congestion were studied. Breakdown flow rates ranged between 1194 to 1404 vphpl, with an average of 1295 vphpl, and a mean queue discharge rate of 1072 vphpl was determined. Mean queue discharge, as used by the Highway Capacity Manual 2000 (HCM), in terms of pcphpl was found to be 1199, well below the HCM’s average capacity of 1600 pcphpl. This reduced capacity found at the site is attributable mainly to narrower lane width and higher percentage of heavy vehicles, around 25%, in the traffic stream. The difference found between mean breakdown flow (1295 vphpl) and queue-discharge flow (1072 vphpl) has been observed widely, and is due to reduced traffic flow once traffic breaks down and queues start to form. The Missouri DOT currently uses a spreadsheet for work zone planning applications that assumes the same values of breakdown and mean queue discharge flow rates. This study proposes that breakdown flow rates should be used to forecast the onset of congestion, whereas mean queue discharge flow rates should be used to estimate delays under congested conditions. Hence, it is recommended that the spreadsheet be refined accordingly.

Advanced geostatistical and machine-learning models for spatial data analysis of radioactively contaminated regions

Radioactive soil-contamination mapping and risk assessment is a vital issue for decision makers. Traditional approaches for mapping the spatial concentration of radionuclides employ various regression-based models, which usually provide a single-value prediction realization accompanied (in some cases) by estimation error. Such approaches do not provide the capability for rigorous uncertainty quantification or probabilistic mapping. Machine learning is a recent and fast-developing approach based on learning patterns and information from data. Artificial neural networks for prediction mapping have been especially powerful in combination with spatial statistics. A data-driven approach provides the opportunity to integrate additional relevant information about spatial phenomena into a prediction model for more accurate spatial estimates and associated uncertainty. Machine-learning algorithms can also be used for a wider spectrum of problems than before: classification, probability density estimation, and so forth. Stochastic simulations are used to model spatial variability and uncertainty. Unlike regression models, they provide multiple realizations of a particular spatial pattern that allow uncertainty and risk quantification. This paper reviews the most recent methods of spatial data analysis, prediction, and risk mapping, based on machine learning and stochastic simulations in comparison with more traditional regression models. The radioactive fallout from the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant accident is used to illustrate the application of the models for prediction and classification problems. This fallout is a unique case study that provides the challenging task of analyzing huge amounts of data ('hard' direct measurements, as well as supplementary information and expert estimates) and solving particular decision-oriented problems.

Development of LRFD Design Procedures for Bridge Piles in Iowa – Field Testing of Steel H-Piles in Clay, Sand, and Mixed Soils and Data Analysis (Volume II), TR-583, 2011

In response to the mandate on Load and Resistance Factor Design (LRFD) implementations by the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) on all new bridge projects initiated after October 1, 2007, the Iowa Highway Research Board (IHRB) sponsored these research projects to develop regional LRFD recommendations. The LRFD development was performed using the Iowa Department of Transportation (DOT) Pile Load Test database (PILOT). To increase the data points for LRFD development, develop LRFD recommendations for dynamic methods, and validate the results of LRFD calibration, 10 full-scale field tests on the most commonly used steel H-piles (e.g., HP 10 x 42) were conducted throughout Iowa. Detailed in situ soil investigations were carried out, push-in pressure cells were installed, and laboratory soil tests were performed. Pile responses during driving, at the end of driving (EOD), and at re-strikes were monitored using the Pile Driving Analyzer (PDA), following with the CAse Pile Wave Analysis Program (CAPWAP) analysis. The hammer blow counts were recorded for Wave Equation Analysis Program (WEAP) and dynamic formulas. Static load tests (SLTs) were performed and the pile capacities were determined based on the Davisson’s criteria. The extensive experimental research studies generated important data for analytical and computational investigations. The SLT measured load-displacements were compared with the simulated results obtained using a model of the TZPILE program and using the modified borehole shear test method. Two analytical pile setup quantification methods, in terms of soil properties, were developed and validated. A new calibration procedure was developed to incorporate pile setup into LRFD.

How to interprete subclinical thyroid dysfunction in the prevention and management of heart failure events? Individual participant data analysis from six prospective cohorts

Background: Guidelines of the Diagnosis and Management of Heart Failure (HF) recommend investigating exacerbating conditions, such as thyroid dysfunction, but without specifying impact of different TSH levels. Limited prospective data exist regarding the association between subclinical thyroid dysfunction and HF events. Methods: We performed a pooled analysis of individual participant data using all available prospective cohorts with thyroid function tests and subsequent follow-up of HF events. Individual data on 25,390 participants with 216,247 person-years of follow-up were supplied from 6 prospective cohorts in the United States and Europe. Euthyroidism was defined as TSH 0.45-4.49 mIU/L, subclinical hypothyroidism as TSH 4.5-19.9 mIU/L and subclinical hyperthyroidism as TSH <0.45 mIU/L, both with normal free thyroxine levels. HF events were defined as acute HF events, hospitalization or death related to HF events. Results: Among 25,390 participants, 2068 had subclinical hypothyroidism (8.1%) and 648 subclinical hyperthyroidism (2.6%). In age- and gender-adjusted analyses, risks of HF events were increased with both higher and lower TSH levels (P for quadratic pattern<0.01): hazard ratio (HR) was 1.01 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.81-1.26) for TSH 4.5-6.9 mIU/L, 1.65 (CI 0.84-3.23) for TSH 7.0-9.9 mIU/L, 1.86 (CI 1.27-2.72) for TSH 10.0-19.9 mIUL/L (P for trend <0.01), and was 1.31 (CI 0.88-1.95) for TSH 0.10-0.44 mIU/L and 1.94 (CI 1.01-3.72) for TSH <0.10 mIU/L (P for trend=0.047). Risks remained similar after adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors. Conclusion: Risks of HF events were increased with both higher and lower TSH levels, particularly for TSH ≥10 mIU/L and for TSH <0.10 mIU/L. Our findings might help to interpret TSH levels in the prevention and investigation of HF.

Thyroid antibody status, subclinical hypothyroidism, and the risk of coronary heart disease: an individual participant data analysis.

CONTEXT: Subclinical hypothyroidism has been associated with increased risk of coronary heart disease (CHD), particularly with thyrotropin levels of 10.0 mIU/L or greater. The measurement of thyroid antibodies helps predict the progression to overt hypothyroidism, but it is unclear whether thyroid autoimmunity independently affects CHD risk. OBJECTIVE: The objective of the study was to compare the CHD risk of subclinical hypothyroidism with and without thyroid peroxidase antibodies (TPOAbs). DATA SOURCES AND STUDY SELECTION: A MEDLINE and EMBASE search from 1950 to 2011 was conducted for prospective cohorts, reporting baseline thyroid function, antibodies, and CHD outcomes. DATA EXTRACTION: Individual data of 38 274 participants from six cohorts for CHD mortality followed up for 460 333 person-years and 33 394 participants from four cohorts for CHD events. DATA SYNTHESIS: Among 38 274 adults (median age 55 y, 63% women), 1691 (4.4%) had subclinical hypothyroidism, of whom 775 (45.8%) had positive TPOAbs. During follow-up, 1436 participants died of CHD and 3285 had CHD events. Compared with euthyroid individuals, age- and gender-adjusted risks of CHD mortality in subclinical hypothyroidism were similar among individuals with and without TPOAbs [hazard ratio (HR) 1.15, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.87-1.53 vs HR 1.26, CI 1.01-1.58, P for interaction = .62], as were risks of CHD events (HR 1.16, CI 0.87-1.56 vs HR 1.26, CI 1.02-1.56, P for interaction = .65). Risks of CHD mortality and events increased with higher thyrotropin, but within each stratum, risks did not differ by TPOAb status. CONCLUSIONS: CHD risk associated with subclinical hypothyroidism did not differ by TPOAb status, suggesting that biomarkers of thyroid autoimmunity do not add independent prognostic information for CHD outcomes.

Optimisation of data analysis method for a fluidized bed combustion test rig

Nowadays the used fuel variety in power boilers is widening and new boiler constructions and running models have to be developed. This research and development is done in small pilot plants where more faster analyse about the boiler mass and heat balance is needed to be able to find and do the right decisions already during the test run. The barrier on determining boiler balance during test runs is the long process of chemical analyses of collected input and outputmatter samples. The present work is concentrating on finding a way to determinethe boiler balance without chemical analyses and optimise the test rig to get the best possible accuracy for heat and mass balance of the boiler. The purpose of this work was to create an automatic boiler balance calculation method for 4 MW CFB/BFB pilot boiler of Kvaerner Pulping Oy located in Messukylä in Tampere. The calculation was created in the data management computer of pilot plants automation system. The calculation is made in Microsoft Excel environment, which gives a good base and functions for handling large databases and calculations without any delicate programming. The automation system in pilot plant was reconstructed und updated by Metso Automation Oy during year 2001 and the new system MetsoDNA has good data management properties, which is necessary for big calculations as boiler balance calculation. Two possible methods for calculating boiler balance during test run were found. Either the fuel flow is determined, which is usedto calculate the boiler's mass balance, or the unburned carbon loss is estimated and the mass balance of the boiler is calculated on the basis of boiler's heat balance. Both of the methods have their own weaknesses, so they were constructed parallel in the calculation and the decision of the used method was left to user. User also needs to define the used fuels and some solid mass flowsthat aren't measured automatically by the automation system. With sensitivity analysis was found that the most essential values for accurate boiler balance determination are flue gas oxygen content, the boiler's measured heat output and lower heating value of the fuel. The theoretical part of this work concentrates in the error management of these measurements and analyses and on measurement accuracy and boiler balance calculation in theory. The empirical part of this work concentrates on the creation of the balance calculation for the boiler in issue and on describing the work environment.

A panel data analysis of FDI and informal labor markets

The objective of this paper is to examine whether informal labor markets affect the flows of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), and also whether this effect is similar in developed and developing countries. With this aim, different public data sources, such as the World Bank (WB), and the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) are used, and panel econometric models are estimated for a sample of 65 countries over a 14 year period (1996-2009). In addition, this paper uses a dynamic model as an extension of the analysis to establish whether such an effect exists and what its indicators and significance may be.