Phenology for tropoclimatological surveys and large-scale mapping

Biotic and abiotic phenological observations can be collected from continental to local spatial scale. Plant phenological observations may only be recorded wherever there is vegetation. Fog, snow and ice are available as phenological para-meters wherever they appear. The singularity of phenological observations is the possibility of spatial intensification to a microclimatic scale where the equipment of meteorological measurements is too expensive for intensive campaigning. The omnipresence of region-specific phenological parameters allows monitoring for a spatially much more detailed assessment of climate change than with weather data. We demonstrate this concept with phenological observations with the use of a special network in the Canton of Berne, Switzerland, with up to 600 observations sites (more than 1 to 10 km² of the inhabited area). Classic cartography, gridding, the integration into a Geographic Information System GIS and large-scale analysis are the steps to a detailed knowledge of topoclimatic conditions of a mountainous area. Examples of urban phenology provide other types of spatially detailed applications. Large potential in phenological mapping in future analyses lies in combining traditionally observed species-specific phenology with remotely sensed and modelled phenology that provide strong spatial information. This is a long history from cartographic intuition to algorithm-based representations of phenology.

Concept, design and implementation of a cardiovascular gene-centric 50 k SNP array for large-scale genomic association studies.

A wealth of genetic associations for cardiovascular and metabolic phenotypes in humans has been accumulating over the last decade, in particular a large number of loci derived from recent genome wide association studies (GWAS). True complex disease-associated loci often exert modest effects, so their delineation currently requires integration of diverse phenotypic data from large studies to ensure robust meta-analyses. We have designed a gene-centric 50 K single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) array to assess potentially relevant loci across a range of cardiovascular, metabolic and inflammatory syndromes. The array utilizes a "cosmopolitan" tagging approach to capture the genetic diversity across approximately 2,000 loci in populations represented in the HapMap and SeattleSNPs projects. The array content is informed by GWAS of vascular and inflammatory disease, expression quantitative trait loci implicated in atherosclerosis, pathway based approaches and comprehensive literature searching. The custom flexibility of the array platform facilitated interrogation of loci at differing stringencies, according to a gene prioritization strategy that allows saturation of high priority loci with a greater density of markers than the existing GWAS tools, particularly in African HapMap samples. We also demonstrate that the IBC array can be used to complement GWAS, increasing coverage in high priority CVD-related loci across all major HapMap populations. DNA from over 200,000 extensively phenotyped individuals will be genotyped with this array with a significant portion of the generated data being released into the academic domain facilitating in silico replication attempts, analyses of rare variants and cross-cohort meta-analyses in diverse populations. These datasets will also facilitate more robust secondary analyses, such as explorations with alternative genetic models, epistasis and gene-environment interactions.

A hybrid method for large-scale short-term scheduling of make-and-pack production processes

Due to the ongoing trend towards increased product variety, fast-moving consumer goods such as food and beverages, pharmaceuticals, and chemicals are typically manufactured through so-called make-and-pack processes. These processes consist of a make stage, a pack stage, and intermediate storage facilities that decouple these two stages. In operations scheduling, complex technological constraints must be considered, e.g., non-identical parallel processing units, sequence-dependent changeovers, batch splitting, no-wait restrictions, material transfer times, minimum storage times, and finite storage capacity. The short-term scheduling problem is to compute a production schedule such that a given demand for products is fulfilled, all technological constraints are met, and the production makespan is minimised. A production schedule typically comprises 500–1500 operations. Due to the problem size and complexity of the technological constraints, the performance of known mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) formulations and heuristic approaches is often insufficient. We present a hybrid method consisting of three phases. First, the set of operations is divided into several subsets. Second, these subsets are iteratively scheduled using a generic and flexible MILP formulation. Third, a novel critical path-based improvement procedure is applied to the resulting schedule. We develop several strategies for the integration of the MILP model into this heuristic framework. Using these strategies, high-quality feasible solutions to large-scale instances can be obtained within reasonable CPU times using standard optimisation software. We have applied the proposed hybrid method to a set of industrial problem instances and found that the method outperforms state-of-the-art methods.

A climatological analysis of high-precipitation events in Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica, and associated large-scale atmospheric conditions

The link between high precipitation in Dronning Maud Land (DML), Antarctica, and the large-scale atmospheric circulation is investigated using ERA-Interim data for 1979–2009. High-precipitation events are analyzed at Halvfarryggen situated in the coastal region of DML and at Kohnen Station located in its interior. This study further includes a comprehensive comparison of high precipitation in ERA-Interim with precipitation data from the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) and snow accumulation measurements from automatic weather stations (AWSs), with the limitations of such a comparison being discussed. The ERA-Interim and AMPS precipitation data agree very well. However, the correspondence between high precipitation in ERA-Interim and high snow accumulation at the AWSs is relatively weak. High-precipitation events at both Halvfarryggen and Kohnen are typically associated with amplified upper level waves. This large-scale atmospheric flow pattern is preceded by the downstream development of a Rossby wave train from the eastern South Pacific several days before the precipitation event. At the surface, a cyclone located over the Weddell Sea is the main synoptic ingredient for high precipitation both at Halvfarryggen and at Kohnen. A blocking anticyclone downstream is not a requirement for high precipitation per se, but a larger share of blocking occurrences during the highest-precipitation days in DML suggests that these blocks strengthen the vertically integrated water vapor transport (IVT) into DML. A strong link between high precipitation and the IVT perpendicular to the local orography suggests that IVT could be used as a “proxy” for high precipitation, in particular over DML's interior.

Ventilation system design and large scale fire tests

The design, construction and operation of the tunnels of M-30, the major ring road in the city of Madrid (Spain), represent a very interesting project in wich a wide variety of situations -geometrical, topographical, etc.- had to be covered, in variable conditions of traffic. For that reasons, the M-30 project is a remarkable technical challenge, which, after its completion, turned into an international reference. From the "design for safety" perspective, a holistic approach has been used to deal with new technologies, integration of systems and development of the procedures to reach the maximum level. However, one of the primary goals has been to achieve reasonable homogeneity characteristics which can permit operate a netword of tunels as one only infraestructure. In the case of the ventilation system the mentioned goals have implied innovative solutions and coordination efforts of great interest. Consequently, this paper describes the principal ideas underlying the conceptual solution developed focusing on the principal peculiarities of the project.

Large scale multiphysics modeling of neurites

Situado en el límite entre Ingeniería, Informática y Biología, la mecánica computacional de las neuronas aparece como un nuevo campo interdisciplinar que potencialmente puede ser capaz de abordar problemas clínicos desde una perspectiva diferente. Este campo es multiescala por naturaleza, yendo desde la nanoescala (como, por ejemplo, los dímeros de tubulina) a la macroescala (como, por ejemplo, el tejido cerebral), y tiene como objetivo abordar problemas que son complejos, y algunas veces imposibles, de estudiar con medios experimentales. La modelización computacional ha sido ampliamente empleada en aplicaciones Neurocientíficas tan diversas como el crecimiento neuronal o la propagación de los potenciales de acción compuestos. Sin embargo, en la mayoría de los enfoques de modelización hechos hasta ahora, la interacción entre la célula y el medio/estímulo que la rodea ha sido muy poco explorada. A pesar de la tremenda importancia de esa relación en algunos desafíos médicos—como, por ejemplo, lesiones traumáticas en el cerebro, cáncer, la enfermedad del Alzheimer—un puente que relacione las propiedades electrofisiológicas-químicas y mecánicas desde la escala molecular al nivel celular todavía no existe. Con ese objetivo, esta investigación propone un marco computacional multiescala particularizado para dos escenarios respresentativos: el crecimiento del axón y el acomplamiento electrofisiológicomecánico de las neuritas. En el primer caso, se explora la relación entre los constituyentes moleculares del axón durante su crecimiento y sus propiedades mecánicas resultantes, mientras que en el último, un estímulo mecánico provoca deficiencias funcionales a nivel celular como consecuencia de sus alteraciones electrofisiológicas-químicas. La modelización computacional empleada en este trabajo es el método de las diferencias finitas, y es implementada en un nuevo programa llamado Neurite. Aunque el método de los elementos finitos es también explorado en parte de esta investigación, el método de las diferencias finitas tiene la flexibilidad y versatilidad necesaria para implementar mode los biológicos, así como la simplicidad matemática para extenderlos a simulaciones a gran escala con un coste computacional bajo. Centrándose primero en el efecto de las propiedades electrofisiológicas-químicas sobre las propiedades mecánicas, una versión adaptada de Neurite es desarrollada para simular la polimerización de los microtúbulos en el crecimiento del axón y proporcionar las propiedades mecánicas como función de la ocupación de los microtúbulos. Después de calibrar el modelo de crecimiento del axón frente a resultados experimentales disponibles en la literatura, las características mecánicas pueden ser evaluadas durante la simulación. Las propiedades mecánicas del axón muestran variaciones dramáticas en la punta de éste, donde el cono de crecimiento soporta las señales químicas y mecánicas. Bansándose en el conocimiento ganado con el modelo de diferencias finitas, y con el objetivo de ir de 1D a 3D, este esquema preliminar pero de una naturaleza innovadora allana el camino a futuros estudios con el método de los elementos finitos. Centrándose finalmente en el efecto de las propiedades mecánicas sobre las propiedades electrofisiológicas- químicas, Neurite es empleado para relacionar las cargas mecánicas macroscópicas con las deformaciones y velocidades de deformación a escala microscópica, y simular la propagación de la señal eléctrica en las neuritas bajo carga mecánica. Las simulaciones fueron calibradas con resultados experimentales publicados en la literatura, proporcionando, por tanto, un modelo capaz de predecir las alteraciones de las funciones electrofisiológicas neuronales bajo cargas externas dañinas, y uniendo lesiones mecánicas con las correspondientes deficiencias funcionales. Para abordar simulaciones a gran escala, aunque otras arquitecturas avanzadas basadas en muchos núcleos integrados (MICs) fueron consideradas, los solvers explícito e implícito se implementaron en unidades de procesamiento central (CPU) y unidades de procesamiento gráfico (GPUs). Estudios de escalabilidad fueron llevados acabo para ambas implementaciones mostrando resultados prometedores para casos de simulaciones extremadamente grandes con GPUs. Esta tesis abre la vía para futuros modelos mecánicos con el objetivo de unir las propiedades electrofisiológicas-químicas con las propiedades mecánicas. El objetivo general es mejorar el conocimiento de las comunidades médicas y de bioingeniería sobre la mecánica de las neuronas y las deficiencias funcionales que aparecen de los daños producidos por traumatismos mecánicos, como lesiones traumáticas en el cerebro, o enfermedades neurodegenerativas como la enfermedad del Alzheimer. ABSTRACT Sitting at the interface between Engineering, Computer Science and Biology, Computational Neuron Mechanics appears as a new interdisciplinary field potentially able to tackle clinical problems from a new perspective. This field is multiscale by nature, ranging from the nanoscale (e.g., tubulin dimers) to the macroscale (e.g., brain tissue), and aims at tackling problems that are complex, and sometime impossible, to study through experimental means. Computational modeling has been widely used in different Neuroscience applications as diverse as neuronal growth or compound action potential propagation. However, in the majority of the modeling approaches done in this field to date, the interactions between the cell and its surrounding media/stimulus have been rarely explored. Despite of the tremendous importance of such relationship in several medical challenges—e.g., traumatic brain injury (TBI), cancer, Alzheimer’s disease (AD)—a bridge between electrophysiological-chemical and mechanical properties of neurons from the molecular scale to the cell level is still lacking. To this end, this research proposes a multiscale computational framework particularized for two representative scenarios: axon growth and electrophysiological-mechanical coupling of neurites. In the former case, the relation between the molecular constituents of the axon during its growth and its resulting mechanical properties is explored, whereas in the latter, a mechanical stimulus provokes functional deficits at cell level as a consequence of its electrophysiological-chemical alterations. The computational modeling approach chosen in this work is the finite difference method (FDM), and was implemented in a new program called Neurite. Although the finite element method (FEM) is also explored as part of this research, the FDM provides the necessary flexibility and versatility to implement biological models, as well as the mathematical simplicity to extend them to large scale simulations with a low computational cost. Focusing first on the effect of electrophysiological-chemical properties on the mechanical proper ties, an adaptation of Neurite was developed to simulate microtubule polymerization in axonal growth and provide the axon mechanical properties as a function of microtubule occupancy. After calibrating the axon growth model against experimental results available in the literature, the mechanical characteristics can be tracked during the simulation. The axon mechanical properties show dramatic variations at the tip of the axon, where the growth cone supports the chemical and mechanical signaling. Based on the knowledge gained from the FDM scheme, and in order to go from 1D to 3D, this preliminary yet novel scheme paves the road for future studies with FEM. Focusing then on the effect of mechanical properties on the electrophysiological-chemical properties, Neurite was used to relate macroscopic mechanical loading to microscopic strains and strain rates, and simulate the electrical signal propagation along neurites under mechanical loading. The simulations were calibrated against experimental results published in the literature, thus providing a model able to predict the alteration of neuronal electrophysiological function under external damaging load, and linking mechanical injuries to subsequent acute functional deficits. To undertake large scale simulations, although other state-of-the-art architectures based on many integrated cores (MICs) were considered, the explicit and implicit solvers were implemented for central processing units (CPUs) and graphics processing units (GPUs). Scalability studies were done for both implementations showing promising results for extremely large scale simulations with GPUs. This thesis opens the avenue for future mechanical modeling approaches aimed at linking electrophysiological- chemical properties to mechanical properties. Its overarching goal is to enhance the bioengineering and medical communities knowledge on neuronal mechanics and functional deficits arising from damages produced by direct mechanical insults, such as TBI, or neurodegenerative evolving illness, such as AD.

Large scale optimization of a sour water stripping plant using surrogate models

In this work, we propose a new methodology for the large scale optimization and process integration of complex chemical processes that have been simulated using modular chemical process simulators. Units with significant numerical noise or large CPU times are substituted by surrogate models based on Kriging interpolation. Using a degree of freedom analysis, some of those units can be aggregated into a single unit to reduce the complexity of the resulting model. As a result, we solve a hybrid simulation-optimization model formed by units in the original flowsheet, Kriging models, and explicit equations. We present a case study of the optimization of a sour water stripping plant in which we simultaneously consider economics, heat integration and environmental impact using the ReCiPe indicator, which incorporates the recent advances made in Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). The optimization strategy guarantees the convergence to a local optimum inside the tolerance of the numerical noise.

Moreton Bay, Queensland, Australia: An example of the co-existence of significant marine mammal populations and large-scale coastal development

Recent analyses assert that large marine vertebrates such as marine mammals are now 'functionally or entirely extinct in most coastal ecosystems'. Moreton Bay is a large diverse marine ecosystem bordering the fastest growing area in Australia. The human population is over 1.6 million and increasing yearly by between 10% and 13% with resultant impacts upon the adjoining marine environment. Nonetheless, significant populations of three species of marine mammals are resident within Moreton Bay and a further 14 species are seasonal or occasional visitors. This paper reviews the current and historical distributions and abundance of these species in the context of the current management regime and suggests initiatives to increase the resilience of marine mammal populations to the changes wrought by the burgeoning human population in coastal environments. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A practical tool to identify water bodies with potential for mosquito habitat under mangrove canopy: Large-scale airborne scanning in the thermal band

We address the practical issue of using thermal image data without adjustment or calibration for projects which do not require actual temperatures per se. Large scale airborne scanning in the thermal band at 8.5–13 μm was obtained for a mangrove and salt marsh in subtropical eastern Australia. For open sites, the raw image values were strongly positively correlated with ground level temperatures. For sites under mangrove canopy cover, image values indicated temperatures 2–4°C lower than those measured on the ground. The raw image was useful in identifying water bodies under canopy and has the potential for locating channel lines of deeper water. This could facilitate modification to increase flushing in the system, thereby reducing mosquito larval survival.

Parallel implementation of stochastic simulation for large scale cellular processes

Experimental and theoretical studies have shown the importance of stochastic processes in genetic regulatory networks and cellular processes. Cellular networks and genetic circuits often involve small numbers of key proteins such as transcriptional factors and signaling proteins. In recent years stochastic models have been used successfully for studying noise in biological pathways, and stochastic modelling of biological systems has become a very important research field in computational biology. One of the challenge problems in this field is the reduction of the huge computing time in stochastic simulations. Based on the system of the mitogen-activated protein kinase cascade that is activated by epidermal growth factor, this work give a parallel implementation by using OpenMP and parallelism across the simulation. Special attention is paid to the independence of the generated random numbers in parallel computing, that is a key criterion for the success of stochastic simulations. Numerical results indicate that parallel computers can be used as an efficient tool for simulating the dynamics of large-scale genetic regulatory networks and cellular processes

A Franco-British comparison of patterns of working hours in large-scale grocery retailing, with specific reference to part-time work

In this thesis patterns of working hours in large-scale grocery retailing in Britain and France are compared. The research is carried out using cross-national comparative methodology, and the analysis is based on information derived from secondary sources and empirical research in large-scale grocery retailing involving employers and trade unions at industry level and case studies at outlet level. The thesis begins by comparing national patterns of working hours in Britain and France over the post-war period. Subsequently, a detailed comparison of working hours in large-scale grocery retailing in Britain and France is carried out through the analysis of secondary sources and empirical data. Emphasis is placed on analyzing part-time working hours. They are contrasted and compared at national level and explained in terms of supply and demand factors. The relationships between the structuring of, and satisfaction with, working hours and factors determining women's integration in the workforce in Britain and France are investigated. Part-time hours are then compared and contrasted in large-scale grocery retailing in the context of the analysis of working hours. The relationship between the structuring of working hours and satisfaction with them is examined in both countries through research with women part-timers in case study outlets. The cross-national comparative methodology is used to examine whether dissimilar national contexts in Britain and France have led to different patterns of working hours in large-scale grocery retailing. The principal conclusion is that significant differences are found in the length, organization and flexibility of working hours and that these differences can be attributed to dissimilar socio-economic, political, and cultural contexts in the two countries.

A conceptual ecological model to facilitate understanding the role of invasive species in large-scale ecosystem restoration

We developed a conceptual ecological model (CEM) for invasive species to help understand the role invasive exotics have in ecosystem ecology and their impacts on restoration activities. Our model, which can be applied to any invasive species, grew from the eco-regional conceptual models developed for Everglades restoration. These models identify ecological drivers, stressors, effects and attributes; we integrated the unique aspects of exotic species invasions and effects into this conceptual hierarchy. We used the model to help identify important aspects of invasion in the development of an invasive exotic plant ecological indicator, which is described a companion paper in this special issue journal. A key aspect of the CEM is that it is a general ecological model that can be tailored to specific cases and species, as the details of any invasion are unique to that invasive species. Our model encompasses the temporal and spatial changes that characterize invasion, identifying the general conditions that allow a species to become invasive in a de novo environment; it then enumerates the possible effects exotic species may have collectively and individually at varying scales and for different ecosystem properties, once a species becomes invasive. The model provides suites of characteristics and processes, as well as hypothesized causal relationships to consider when thinking about the effects or potential effects of an invasive exotic and how restoration efforts will affect these characteristics and processes. In order to illustrate how to use the model as a blueprint for applying a similar approach to other invasive species and ecosystems, we give two examples of using this conceptual model to evaluate the status of two south Florida invasive exotic plant species (melaleuca and Old World climbing fern) and consider potential impacts of these invasive species on restoration.

Testing of Interposer-Based 2.5D Integrated Circuits

The unprecedented and relentless growth in the electronics industry is feeding the demand for integrated circuits (ICs) with increasing functionality and performance at minimum cost and power consumption. As predicted by Moore's law, ICs are being aggressively scaled to meet this demand. While the continuous scaling of process technology is reducing gate delays, the performance of ICs is being increasingly dominated by interconnect delays. In an effort to improve submicrometer interconnect performance, to increase packing density, and to reduce chip area and power consumption, the semiconductor industry is focusing on three-dimensional (3D) integration. However, volume production and commercial exploitation of 3D integration are not feasible yet due to significant technical hurdles.

At the present time, interposer-based 2.5D integration is emerging as a precursor to stacked 3D integration. All the dies and the interposer in a 2.5D IC must be adequately tested for product qualification. However, since the structure of 2.5D ICs is different from the traditional 2D ICs, new challenges have emerged: (1) pre-bond interposer testing, (2) lack of test access, (3) limited ability for at-speed testing, (4) high density I/O ports and interconnects, (5) reduced number of test pins, and (6) high power consumption. This research targets the above challenges and effective solutions have been developed to test both dies and the interposer.

The dissertation first introduces the basic concepts of 3D ICs and 2.5D ICs. Prior work on testing of 2.5D ICs is studied. An efficient method is presented to locate defects in a passive interposer before stacking. The proposed test architecture uses e-fuses that can be programmed to connect or disconnect functional paths inside the interposer. The concept of a die footprint is utilized for interconnect testing, and the overall assembly and test flow is described. Moreover, the concept of weighted critical area is defined and utilized to reduce test time. In order to fully determine the location of each e-fuse and the order of functional interconnects in a test path, we also present a test-path design algorithm. The proposed algorithm can generate all test paths for interconnect testing.

In order to test for opens, shorts, and interconnect delay defects in the interposer, a test architecture is proposed that is fully compatible with the IEEE 1149.1 standard and relies on an enhancement of the standard test access port (TAP) controller. To reduce test cost, a test-path design and scheduling technique is also presented that minimizes a composite cost function based on test time and the design-for-test (DfT) overhead in terms of additional through silicon vias (TSVs) and micro-bumps needed for test access. The locations of the dies on the interposer are taken into consideration in order to determine the order of dies in a test path.

To address the scenario of high density of I/O ports and interconnects, an efficient built-in self-test (BIST) technique is presented that targets the dies and the interposer interconnects. The proposed BIST architecture can be enabled by the standard TAP controller in the IEEE 1149.1 standard. The area overhead introduced by this BIST architecture is negligible; it includes two simple BIST controllers, a linear-feedback-shift-register (LFSR), a multiple-input-signature-register (MISR), and some extensions to the boundary-scan cells in the dies on the interposer. With these extensions, all boundary-scan cells can be used for self-configuration and self-diagnosis during interconnect testing. To reduce the overall test cost, a test scheduling and optimization technique under power constraints is described.

In order to accomplish testing with a small number test pins, the dissertation presents two efficient ExTest scheduling strategies that implements interconnect testing between tiles inside an system on chip (SoC) die on the interposer while satisfying the practical constraint that the number of required test pins cannot exceed the number of available pins at the chip level. The tiles in the SoC are divided into groups based on the manner in which they are interconnected. In order to minimize the test time, two optimization solutions are introduced. The first solution minimizes the number of input test pins, and the second solution minimizes the number output test pins. In addition, two subgroup configuration methods are further proposed to generate subgroups inside each test group.

Finally, the dissertation presents a programmable method for shift-clock stagger assignment to reduce power supply noise during SoC die testing in 2.5D ICs. An SoC die in the 2.5D IC is typically composed of several blocks and two neighboring blocks that share the same power rails should not be toggled at the same time during shift. Therefore, the proposed programmable method does not assign the same stagger value to neighboring blocks. The positions of all blocks are first analyzed and the shared boundary length between blocks is then calculated. Based on the position relationships between the blocks, a mathematical model is presented to derive optimal result for small-to-medium sized problems. For larger designs, a heuristic algorithm is proposed and evaluated.

In summary, the dissertation targets important design and optimization problems related to testing of interposer-based 2.5D ICs. The proposed research has led to theoretical insights, experiment results, and a set of test and design-for-test methods to make testing effective and feasible from a cost perspective.

Investigation of factors driving the costs of operating the 2020 Irish power system with large-scale wind generation

The main goal of this work is to determine the true cost incurred by the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland in order to meet their EU renewable electricity targets. The primary all-island of Ireland policy goal is that 40% of electricity will come from renewable sources in 2020. From this it is expected that wind generation on the Irish electricity system will be in the region of 32-37% of total generation. This leads to issues resulting from wind energy being a non-synchronous, unpredictable and variable source of energy use on a scale never seen before for a single synchronous system. If changes are not made to traditional operational practices, the efficient running of the electricity system will be directly affected by these issues in the coming years. Using models of the electricity system for the all-island grid of Ireland, the effects of high wind energy penetration expected to be present in 2020 are examined. These models were developed using a unit commitment, economic dispatch tool called PLEXOS which allows for a detailed representation of the electricity system to be achieved down to individual generator level. These models replicate the true running of the electricity system through use of day-ahead scheduling and semi-relaxed use of these schedules that reflects the Transmission System Operator's of real time decision making on dispatch. In addition, it carefully considers other non-wind priority dispatch generation technologies that have an effect on the overall system. In the models developed, three main issues associated with wind energy integration were selected to be examined in detail to determine the sensitivity of assumptions presented in other studies. These three issues include wind energy's non-synchronous nature, its variability and spatial correlation, and its unpredictability. This leads to an examination of the effects in three areas: the need for system operation constraints required for system security; different onshore to offshore ratios of installed wind energy; and the degrees of accuracy in wind energy forecasting. Each of these areas directly impact the way in which the electricity system is run as they address each of the three issues associated with wind energy stated above, respectively. It is shown that assumptions in these three areas have a large effect on the results in terms of total generation costs, wind curtailment and generator technology type dispatch. In particular accounting for these issues has resulted in wind curtailment being predicted in much larger quantities than had been previously reported. This would have a large effect on wind energy companies because it is already a very low profit margin industry. Results from this work have shown that the relaxation of system operation constraints is crucial to the economic running of the electricity system with large improvements shown in the reduction of wind curtailment and system generation costs. There are clear benefits in having a proportion of the wind installed offshore in Ireland which would help to reduce variability of wind energy generation on the system and therefore reduce wind curtailment. With envisaged future improvements in day-ahead wind forecasting from 8% to 4% mean absolute error, there are potential reductions in wind curtailment system costs and open cycle gas turbine usage. This work illustrates the consequences of assumptions in the areas of system operation constraints, onshore/offshore installed wind capacities and accuracy in wind forecasting to better inform the true costs associated with running Ireland's changing electricity system as it continues to decarbonise into the near future. This work also proposes to illustrate, through the use of Ireland as a case study, the effects that will become ever more prevalent in other synchronous systems as they pursue a path of increasing renewable energy generation.

Dynamic Programming Approaches for Estimating and Applying Large-scale Discrete Choice Models

People go through their life making all kinds of decisions, and some of these decisions affect their demand for transportation, for example, their choices of where to live and where to work, how and when to travel and which route to take. Transport related choices are typically time dependent and characterized by large number of alternatives that can be spatially correlated. This thesis deals with models that can be used to analyze and predict discrete choices in large-scale networks. The proposed models and methods are highly relevant for, but not limited to, transport applications. We model decisions as sequences of choices within the dynamic discrete choice framework, also known as parametric Markov decision processes. Such models are known to be difficult to estimate and to apply to make predictions because dynamic programming problems need to be solved in order to compute choice probabilities. In this thesis we show that it is possible to explore the network structure and the flexibility of dynamic programming so that the dynamic discrete choice modeling approach is not only useful to model time dependent choices, but also makes it easier to model large-scale static choices. The thesis consists of seven articles containing a number of models and methods for estimating, applying and testing large-scale discrete choice models. In the following we group the contributions under three themes: route choice modeling, large-scale multivariate extreme value (MEV) model estimation and nonlinear optimization algorithms. Five articles are related to route choice modeling. We propose different dynamic discrete choice models that allow paths to be correlated based on the MEV and mixed logit models. The resulting route choice models become expensive to estimate and we deal with this challenge by proposing innovative methods that allow to reduce the estimation cost. For example, we propose a decomposition method that not only opens up for possibility of mixing, but also speeds up the estimation for simple logit models, which has implications also for traffic simulation. Moreover, we compare the utility maximization and regret minimization decision rules, and we propose a misspecification test for logit-based route choice models. The second theme is related to the estimation of static discrete choice models with large choice sets. We establish that a class of MEV models can be reformulated as dynamic discrete choice models on the networks of correlation structures. These dynamic models can then be estimated quickly using dynamic programming techniques and an efficient nonlinear optimization algorithm. Finally, the third theme focuses on structured quasi-Newton techniques for estimating discrete choice models by maximum likelihood. We examine and adapt switching methods that can be easily integrated into usual optimization algorithms (line search and trust region) to accelerate the estimation process. The proposed dynamic discrete choice models and estimation methods can be used in various discrete choice applications. In the area of big data analytics, models that can deal with large choice sets and sequential choices are important. Our research can therefore be of interest in various demand analysis applications (predictive analytics) or can be integrated with optimization models (prescriptive analytics). Furthermore, our studies indicate the potential of dynamic programming techniques in this context, even for static models, which opens up a variety of future research directions.