Iowa Prison Population Forecast FY 2011-2021

CJJP takes a look at the forecast of inmates population in the state of Iowa in a ten year period. Information was produced by Division of Criminal and Juvenile Justice Planning. This report was made possible partially through funding from the U.S. Department of Justice, Bureau of Justice Statistics and its program for State Statistical Analysis Centers. Points of view or opinions expressed in this report are those of the Division of Criminal and Juvenile Justice Planning (CJJP), and do not necessarily reflect official positions of the U.S. Department of Justice.

Clinical results of autologous infrainguinal revascularization using grafts originating distal to the femoral bifurcation in patients with mild inflow disease.

AIM: Chronic critical limb ischemia (CLI) often requires venous bypass grafting to distal arterial segments. However, graft patency is influenced by the length and quality of the graft and occasionally patients may have limited suitable veins. We investigated short distal bypass grafting from the superficial femoral or popliteal artery to the infrapopliteal, ankle or foot arteries, despite angiographic alterations of inflow vessels, providing that invasive pressure measurement at the site of the planned proximal anastomosis revealed an inflow-brachial pressure difference of <or=10 mmHg. METHODS: Four hundred and twenty-three consecutive infrainguinal bypass grafts were performed for CLI between June, 1999 and November, 2002 at our institution. All patients underwent preoperative clinical examination, arteriography and assessment of the veins by duplex ultrasound. The study group are patients in whom the proximal and distal anastomoses of the bypass are below the femoral bifurcation and the popliteal artery, respectively. Invasive arterial pressure measurements were recorded at the level of the planned proximal anastomosis which was performed at that level if the difference of the inflow-brachial pressure was <or=10 mmHg, irrespective of angiographic alterations of the inflow vessels proximal to the planned anastomosis. All patients had a clinical follow-up included a duplex examination of their graft, at 1 week, 3, 9 and 12 months and, thereafter, annually. No patient was lost to follow-up. RESULTS: Sixty-seven patients underwent 71 short distal bypass grafts in 71 limbs with reversed saphenous vein grafts in 52, in situ saphenous veins in 11, reversed cephalic vein in 1 and composite veins in 7, respectively. Surgical or endovascular interventions to improve inflow were required in 4 limbs (5.6%). The mean follow-up time was 22.5 months and the two-year survival was 92.5%. Primary and secondary patency rates at 2 years were 73% and 93%, respectively, and the limb salvage rate was 98.5%. CONCLUSION: In appropriately selected patients, short distal venous bypass grafts can be performed with satisfactory patency and limb salvage rates even in the presence of morphologic alterations of the inflow vessels providing that these are not hemodynamically significant, or can be corrected intraoperatively.

Out-of-sample forecast tests robust to the choice of window size

This paper proposes new methodologies for evaluating out-of-sample forecastingperformance that are robust to the choice of the estimation window size. The methodologies involve evaluating the predictive ability of forecasting models over a wide rangeof window sizes. We show that the tests proposed in the literature may lack the powerto detect predictive ability and might be subject to data snooping across differentwindow sizes if used repeatedly. An empirical application shows the usefulness of themethodologies for evaluating exchange rate models' forecasting ability.

Analysis and Forecast of Housing Needs in Iowa Technical Report, January 22, 2013

The research and analysis summarized in this report prepared by Gruen Gruen + Associates (“GG+A”) provides an information base about population, household, housing, and employment conditions and trends affecting the current and future housing needs of Iowans. It also provides a synthesis of how the housing needs of Iowans have changed over the past decade and how needs are likely to continue to change over the present decade (2010-2020), given forecast employment and population growth in Iowa.

Iowa Prison Population Forecast FY 2015-2025

CJJP takes a look at the forecast of inmates population in the state of Iowa in a ten year period. Information was produced by Division of Criminal and Juvenile Justice Planning. This report was made possible partially through funding from the U.S. Department of Justice, Bureau of Justice Statistics and its program for State Statistical Analysis Centers. Points of view or opinions expressed in this report are those of the Division of Criminal and Juvenile Justice Planning (CJJP), and do not necessarily reflect official positions of the U.S. Department of Justice.

Iowa Prison Population Forecast FY 2014-2024

CJJP takes a look at the forecast of inmates population in the state of Iowa in a ten year period. Information was produced by Division of Criminal and Juvenile Justice Planning. This report was made possible partially through funding from the U.S. Department of Justice, Bureau of Justice Statistics and its program for State Statistical Analysis Centers. Points of view or opinions expressed in this report are those of the Division of Criminal and Juvenile Justice Planning (CJJP), and do not necessarily reflect official positions of the U.S. Department of Justice.

Preface: Forecast and projection in climate scenario of Mediterranean intense events: uncertainties and propagation on environment (the MEDUP project)

The Mediterranean basin is a particularly vulnerable region to climate change, partly due to its quite unique character that results both from physiographic conditions and societal development. The region features indeed a near-closed sea surrounded by very urbanised littorals and mountains from which numerous rivers originate. This results in a lot of interactions and feedbacks between oceanic-atmospheric-hydrological processes that play a predominant role on climate and extreme events that frequently cause heavy dam- ages and human losses in the Mediterranean ...

Comparison of different methods to forecast hospital bed needs

Objectives : This study compares three methods to forecast the number of acute somatic hospital beds needed in a Swiss academic hospital over the period 2010-2030. Design : Information about inpatient stays is provided through a yearly mandatory reporting of Swiss hospitals, containing anonymized data. Forecast of the numbers of beds needed compares a basic scenario relying on population projections with two other methods in use in our country that integrate additional hypotheses on future trends in admission rates and length of stay (LOS).

Quantitative market and sales forecast accuracy analysis

The main objective of this master’s thesis was to quantitatively study the reliability of market and sales forecasts of a certain company by measuring bias, precision and accuracy of these forecasts by comparing forecasts against actual values. Secondly, the differences of bias, precision and accuracy between markets were explained by various macroeconomic variables and market characteristics. Accuracy and precision of the forecasts seems to vary significantly depending on the market that is being forecasted, the variable that is being forecasted, the estimation period, the length of the estimated period, the forecast horizon and the granularity of the data. High inflation, low income level and high year-on-year market volatility seems to be related with higher annual market forecast uncertainty and high year-on-year sales volatility with higher sales forecast uncertainty. When quarterly market size is forecasted, correlation between macroeconomic variables and forecast errors reduces. Uncertainty of the sales forecasts cannot be explained with macroeconomic variables. Longer forecasts are more uncertain, shorter estimated period leads to higher uncertainty, and usually more recent market forecasts are less uncertain. Sales forecasts seem to be more uncertain than market forecasts, because they incorporate both market size and market share risks. When lead time is more than one year, forecast risk seems to grow as a function of root forecast horizon. When lead time is less than year, sequential error terms are typically correlated, and therefore forecast errors are trending or mean-reverting. The bias of forecasts seems to change in cycles, and therefore the future forecasts cannot be systematically adjusted with it. The MASE cannot be used to measure whether the forecast can anticipate year-on-year volatility. Instead, we constructed a new relative accuracy measure to cope with this particular situation.

Combine to compete: improving fiscal forecast accuracy over time

Budget forecasts have become increasingly important as a tool of fiscal management to influence expectations of bond markets and the public at large. The inherent difficulty in projecting macroeconomic variables – together with political bias – thwart the accuracy of budget forecasts. We improve accuracy by combining the forecasts of both private and public agencies for Italy over the period 1993-2012. A weighted combined forecast of the deficit/ ratio is superior to any single forecast. Deficits are hard to predict due to shifting economic conditions and political events. We test and compare predictive accuracy over time and although a weighted combined forecast is robust to breaks, there is no significant improvement over a simple RW model.

Combine to compete: improving fiscal forecast accuracy over time

Budget forecasts have become increasingly important as a tool of fiscal management to influence expectations of bond markets and the public at large. The inherent difficulty in projecting macroeconomic variables – together with political bias – thwart the accuracy of budget forecasts. We improve accuracy by combining the forecasts of both private and public agencies for Italy over the period 1993-2012. A weighted combined forecast of the deficit/ ratio is superior to any single forecast. Deficits are hard to predict due to shifting economic conditions and political events. We test and compare predictive accuracy over time and although a weighted combined forecast is robust to breaks, there is no significant improvement over a simple RW model.

Weather requirements and rain forecast to time fungicide application for Fusarium head blight control in wheat

The aim of this study was to determine the minimum conditions of wetness duration and mean temperature required for Fusarium head blight infection in wheat. The weather model developed by Zoldan (2008) was tested in field experiments for two wheat cultivars grown in 2005 (five sowing dates) and 2006 (six sowing dates) in 10 m² plots with three replicates. The disease was assessed according to head incidence (HI), spikelet incidence (SI), and the interaction between these two methods was called head blight severity (HBS). Starting at the beginning of anthesis, air temperature and head wetness duration were daily recorded with an automatic weather station. With the combination of these two factors, a weather favorability table was built for the disease occurrence. Starting on the day of flowering beginning (1 - 5% fully exserted anthers), the sum of daily values for infection favorability (SDVIF) was calculated by means of a computer program, according to Zoldan (2008) table. The initial symptoms of the disease were observed at 3.7% spikelet incidence, corresponding to 2.6 SVDFI. The infection occurs in wheat due to rainfall which results in spike wetting of > 61.4 h duration. Rainfall events forecast can help time fungicide application to control FHB. The name of this alert system is proposed as UPF-scab alert.

Analysis and forecast of the storage needs of soybeans in Brazil

The existence of a minimum storage capacity of grains as a condition for the maintenance of regulator physical stocks has been used as a strategic factor in the agribusiness expansion. However, in Brazil the storage infrastructure has not followed the growth of the agricultural sector. This fact is evident in the case of soybeans that currently represent 49% of grain production in the country, whose volume production has been increasing significantly over the years. This study aimed to predict the futureneeds of static storage capacity of soybeans from historical data to estimate the investment needed to install storage units in Brazil for the next five years. A statistic analysis of collected data allowed a forecast and identification of the number of storage units that should be installed to meet the storage needs of soybeans in the next five years. It was concluded that by 2015 the soybean storage capacity should be 87 million tons, and to store 49% of soybeans produced, 1,104 storage units should be installed at a cost of R$ 442 million.

Avaliação clínica de cães submetidos à parada circulatória total por diferentes períodos de tempo através da técnica de "Inflow Occlusion"

A técnica de "Inflow Occlusion" pode ser utilizada em cirurgias cardíacas quando se pretende manter o coração aberto apenas por alguns minutos, para realização de pequenos reparos. No entanto, a parada circulatória total (PCT), evento decorrente da técnica em questão, pode acarretar severas alterações metabólicas e neurológicas ao paciente. Neste estudo foram utilizados 12 cães sem raça definida, os quais foram divididos em dois grupos, A e B, sendo os mesmos submetidos a 7 e 8 minutos de PCT, respectivamente, utilizando-se da técnica de "Inflow Occlusion". Tentou-se estabelecer normotermia durante os procedimentos cirúrgicos. Avaliações clínica e comportamental foram realizadas nos dois grupos após os procedimentos cirúrgicos e dados bioquímicos foram coletados para comparação entre os períodos pré e pós-operatórios. Ocorreram dois óbitos transoperatórios no grupo B. Alterações clínicas transitórias foram observadas no grupo A até o momento M7 (48 horas após cirurgia), e no grupo B, as mesmas foram mais intensas e presentes mesmo após M7; e em um animal do grupo B foi observada cegueira permanente por todo o período de acompanhamento. Apesar das alterações observadas, há indícios que seja seguro realizar a técnica de "Inflow Occlusion" por até 7 minutos, sendo contra-indicada, no entanto, para períodos mais prolongados.

Russia, China, India Foresight for Small and Medium size Enterprises in Uusimaa : Changes forecast in the Russian, Chinese and Indian operating environments from the viewpoint of small and middle-sized enterprises in Uusimaa

The report describes those factors of the future that are related to the growth and needs of Russia, China, and India and that may provide significant internationalisation potential for Uusimaa companies. The report examines the emerging trends and market-entry challenges for each country separately. Additionally, it evaluates the training needs of Uusimaa companies in terms of the current offerings available for education on topics related to Russia, China, and India. The report was created via the Delphi method: experts were interviewed, and both Trendwiki material and the latest literature were used to create a summary of experts’ views, statements, and reasons behind recent developments. This summary of views was sent back to the experts with the objective of reaching consensus synthesising the differing views or, at least, of providing argumentation for the various alternative lines of development. In addition to a number of outside experts and business leaders, all heads of Finpro’s Finland Trade Centers participated in the initial interviews. The summary was commented upon by all Finpro consultants and analysts for Russia, China, and India, with each focusing on his or her own area of expertise. The literature used consisted of reports, listed for each country, and an extensive selection of the most recent newspaper articles. The report was created in January-April 2010. On 22 April 2010 its results were reviewed at the final report presentation in cooperation with the Uusimaa ELY Centre.