O novo federalismo social e o Rio: desenho de programas complementares de transferência de renda condicionada

Brazilian public policy entered in the so-called new social federalism through its conditional cash transfers. States and municipalities can operate together through the nationwide platform of the Bolsa Familia Program (BFP), complementing federal actions with local innovations. The state and the city of Rio de Janeiro have created programs named, respectively, Renda Melhor (RM) and Família Carioca (FC). These programs make use of the operational structure of the BFP, which facilitates locating beneficiaries, issuing cards, synchronizing payment dates and access passwords and introducing new conditionalities. The payment system of the two programs complements the estimated permanent household income up to the poverty line established, giving more to those who have less. Similar income complementation system was subsequently adopted in the BFP and the Chilean Ingreso Ético Familiar, which also follow the principle of estimation of income used in the FC and in the RM. Instead of using the declared income, the value of the Rio cash transfers are set using the extensive collection of information obtained from the Single Registry of Social Programs (Cadastro Único): physical configuration of housing, access to public services, education and work conditions for all family members, presence of vulnerable groups, disabilities, pregnant or lactating women, children and benefits from other official transfers such as the BFP. With this multitude of assets and limitations, the permanent income of each individual is estimated. The basic benefit is defined by the poverty gap and priority is given to the poorest. These subnational programs use international benchmarks as a neutral ground between different government levels and mandates. Their poverty line is the highest of the first millennium goal of the United Nations (UN): US$ 2 per person per day adjusted for the cost of living. The other poverty line of the UN, US$ 1.25, was implicitly adopted as the national extreme poverty line in 2011. The exchange of methodologies between federal entities has happened both ways. The FC began with the 575,000 individuals living in the city of Rio de Janeiro who were on the payroll of the BFP. Its system of impact evaluation benefited from bi-monthly standardized examinations. In the educational conditionalities, the two programs reward students' progress, a potential advantage for those who most need to advance. The municipal program requires greater school attendance than that of the BFP and the presence of students’ parents at the bimonthly meetings held on Saturdays. Students must achieve a grade of 8 or improve at least 20% in each exam to receive a bi-monthly premium of R$50. In early childhood, priority is given to the poor children in the program Single Administrative Register (CadÚnico) to enroll in kindergarten, preschools and complementary activities. The state program reaches more than one million people with a payment system similar to the municipal one. Moreover, it innovates in that it transfers awards given to high school students to savings accounts. The prize increases and is paid to the student, who can withdraw up to 30% annually. The total can reach R$3,800 per low-income student. The State and the city rewarded already education professionals according to student performance, now completing the chain of demand incentives on poor students and their parents. Increased performance is higher among beneficiaries and the presence of their guardians at meetings is twice compared to non beneficiaries; The Houston program, also focuses on aligning the incentives to teachers, parents and students. In general, the plan is to explore strategic complementarities, where the whole is greater than the sum of its parts. The objective is to stimulate, through targets and incentives, synergies between social actors (teachers, parents, students), between areas (education, assistance, work) and different levels of government. The cited programs sum their efforts and divide labor so as to multiply interactions and make a difference in the lives of the poor.

Três ensaios em economia da educação

Essa tese é composta por três artigos na área de Economia da Educação que buscam investigar a questão do ensino médio técnico no Brasil. O primeiro e segundo artigos se inserem na literatura de avaliação de impacto dos tipos de ensino médio realizado, o de formação geral ou técnica, sobre os resultados do mercado de trabalho. Esse é um tema cada vez mais explorado em estudos empíricos internacionais, mas que ainda merece atenção dos pesquisadores no Brasil, seja para preencher lacunas no que se refere à identificação do efeito causal dessa política, seja porque o ensino técnico profissionalizante tenha se tornado alvo de maiores investimentos públicos nos últimos anos. Dessa forma, os dois artigos têm o propósito de estimar o efeito causal das habilidades técnicas adquiridas nos cursos técnicos de nível médio sobre os salários dos trabalhadores, no entanto se diferem pela fonte de dados utilizada. No primeiro artigo são utilizados os dados da Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios (IBGE) de 2007 e nossa contribuição está na estratégia de identificação do efeito causal, ao resolver o problema de auto seleção com o método de duplas diferenças (DD). Diversos testes de robustez foram realizados para dar suporte ao impacto positivo e estatisticamente significante que encontramos das habilidades técnicas sobre os salários, embora este seja restrito ao subgrupo de trabalhadores com no máximo o ensino médio completo. No segundo artigo foram utilizadas duas fontes de dados ainda não exploradas para esse fim, os microdados do ENEM (Exame Nacional do Ensino Médio) entre os anos de 2004 e 2006 e os dados da RAIS (Relação Anual de Informações Sociais) de 2009 a 2012 identificados por indivíduo (CPF). Por ser possível observar as notas dos jovens ao final do ensino médio, conseguimos separar os impactos do ensino médio técnico nos salários relacionados às habilidades técnicas específicas obtidas nos cursos técnicos, daqueles relacionados às habilidades gerais dos indivíduos (cognitivas ou não). Implementamos a estratégia de duplas diferenças e mais uma vez encontramos impacto positivo sobre os salários anuais dos jovens que concluíram o ensino médio técnico. Dessa vez nossos resultados são positivos tanto para os jovens que pararam seus estudos no ensino médio como para aqueles que concluíram o ensino superior. Verificamos a existência de heterogeneidade do efeito por região do país e nos quartis de distribuição de notas médias por escola no ENEM, indicando que os efeitos são crescentes com a qualidade oferecida pelas escolas. O terceiro artigo tem por objetivo estudar o mercado de trabalho no que diz respeito às ocupações tipicamente preenchidas por profissionais com nível médio técnico e analisar os diferenciais de salários dessas ocupações. A partir das ideias desenvolvidas no estudo, almejamos que ele seja orientador de políticas que relacionem educação técnica com demandas do mercado, com a finalidade de melhorar o matching entre formação e emprego. Entre as contribuições deste artigo estão a identificação e classificação das ocupações típicas de nível médio técnico pelo diferencial de salários, a correspondência entre as ocupações e as formações técnicas, a análise da atual oferta de vagas nos cursos correspondentes e o destaque para os cursos que parecem necessitar de maiores investimentos para o suprir as necessidades de mais profissionais.

Avaliação do impacto da utilização de parceria público-privada para construção e operação de unidades municipais de educação infantil em Belo Horizonte

As Parcerias Público-Privadas (PPP) de infraestrutura escolar são cada vez mais utilizadas no mundo, entretanto as avaliações de impacto desse modelo ainda são escassas. O presente estudo contribui para essa área do conhecimento ao avaliar o impacto da utilização de PPP tanto na construção como na operação das Unidades Municipais de Educação Infantil (UMEIs) de Belo Horizonte (BH). A metodologia de pesquisa foi baseada na comparação de 46 UMEIs, sendo 27 unidades de PPP e 19 unidades construídas e operadas no modelo tradicional de contratação pública. Em relação ao impacto na construção, os principais resultados são que o tempo de obra das unidades de PPP foi 45% menor e que 79% das unidades tradicionais foram entregues fora do prazo contratado de 13 meses, enquanto que nenhuma PPP foi entregue acima deste prazo. Além disso, a PPP permitiu aumentar a escala na construção das UMEIs, superando as limitações do modelo tradicional. Dentre as principais evidências encontradas quanto ao impacto na operação, pode-se citar que os diretores de unidades de PPP afirmam ter 25% mais tempo para focar nas atividades pedagógicas, pois gastam menos tempo na gestão dos serviços não pedagógicos, e que o grau de satisfação com os serviços de manutenção das instalações físicas é substancialmente maior nessas unidades. Os resultados positivos para PPP só não apareceram em relação aos serviços de manutenção de TI. Uma limitação deste trabalho foi não conseguir realizar a comparação de custos das duas modalidades. O estudo pretende contribuir para o aprimoramento dos modelos regulatórios de PPPs em educação e para a discussão sobre o papel que pode ser desempenhado pelas PPPs na redução do déficit de infraestrutura escolar.

Theoretical and empirical essays on microeconometrics

This Master Thesis consists of one theoretical article and one empirical article on the field of Microeconometrics. The first chapter\footnote{We also thank useful suggestions by Marinho Bertanha, Gabriel Cepaluni, Brigham Frandsen, Dalia Ghanem, Ricardo Masini, Marcela Mello, Áureo de Paula, Cristine Pinto, Edson Severnini and seminar participants at São Paulo School of Economics, the California Econometrics Conference 2015 and the 37\textsuperscript{th} Brazilian Meeting of Econometrics.}, called \emph{Synthetic Control Estimator: A Generalized Inference Procedure and Confidence Sets}, contributes to the literature about inference techniques of the Synthetic Control Method. This methodology was proposed to answer questions involving counterfactuals when only one treated unit and a few control units are observed. Although this method was applied in many empirical works, the formal theory behind its inference procedure is still an open question. In order to fulfill this lacuna, we make clear the sufficient hypotheses that guarantee the adequacy of Fisher's Exact Hypothesis Testing Procedure for panel data, allowing us to test any \emph{sharp null hypothesis} and, consequently, to propose a new way to estimate Confidence Sets for the Synthetic Control Estimator by inverting a test statistic, the first confidence set when we have access only to finite sample, aggregate level data whose cross-sectional dimension may be larger than its time dimension. Moreover, we analyze the size and the power of the proposed test with a Monte Carlo experiment and find that test statistics that use the synthetic control method outperforms test statistics commonly used in the evaluation literature. We also extend our framework for the cases when we observe more than one outcome of interest (simultaneous hypothesis testing) or more than one treated unit (pooled intervention effect) and when heteroskedasticity is present. The second chapter, called \emph{Free Economic Area of Manaus: An Impact Evaluation using the Synthetic Control Method}, is an empirical article. We apply the synthetic control method for Brazilian city-level data during the 20\textsuperscript{th} Century in order to evaluate the economic impact of the Free Economic Area of Manaus (FEAM). We find that this enterprise zone had positive significant effects on Real GDP per capita and Services Total Production per capita, but it also had negative significant effects on Agriculture Total Production per capita. Our results suggest that this subsidy policy achieve its goal of promoting regional economic growth, even though it may have provoked mis-allocation of resources among economic sectors.

Enzyme activity and microbial biomass in an Oxisol amended with sewage sludge contaminated with nickel

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Avaliação preliminar do potencial turístico do município de rifaina (SP) e os impactos decorrentes do uso público de seus atrativos paisagísticos

This paper attempts to assess both the touristic potential of scenic attractions and the environmental impacts resulting from the public use of such attractions in the Rifaina Municipality, State of São Paulo, Southeastern Brazil. In the recent past, this municipality had its economy concentrated in rural activities (livestock, corn, rice and bean crops) and in the ceramic industry (production of bricks, tiles and shackles),which was largely developed in the floodplain of the Rio Grande before the construction of the Jaguara Power Plant Dam. The impacts resulting from touristic activities were evaluated by applying the VIM - Visitor Impact Management method, with emphasis on biophysical indicators. The main touristic attractions analyzed were: (1) Rifaina artificial beach; (2) Jaguara Reservoir; (3) Morro do Chapéu (scenic hill); (4) Touristic railroad; and (5) Cuestas cliffs. Attractions (1) and (2) are the most exploited ones, including, in the second case, nautical sports, sportive and craft fishing, and summer lodging. Although currently disabled, the touristic railroad presents potential conditions to be re-explored. Attractions (3) and (5), despite keeping high landscape and ecological ecotouristic potential, are the least visited places. In the present paper, a preliminary characterization of the major issues of tourism industry in the Rifaina municipality is made, including suggestions for the sustainable exploitation of tourism resources. The final results of the environmental impact evaluation of the tourism activities include small impacts in attractions (4) and (5) and moderate impacts to the three first attractions. In order to keep the sustainable touristic potential for that municipality this study proposes the improvement of the following measures: to foster research projects on technical or scientific aspects of the touristic attractions, improvement of tourism infrastructure and the creation of an Environmental Protection Area (APA) of the cuestas' scarps.

Evaluación del impacto de una intervención educativa en atención farmacéutica y farmacia clínica

Introduction: The World Health Organization considers pharmaceutical care (PC) of fundamental importance for the patient and the community. Its exercise requires knowledge and skills, which can be acquired in academic and/or continuing educations, credited for effectiveness and impact evaluation. However, few manuscripts in the literature have showed the contribution of the educational interventions on the knowledge, skill and attitude of students and professionals who participate in scientifi c events related to PC. Objective: To evaluate the impact of an educational intervention (EI), and its degree of satisfaction, to pharmacists and pharmacy students. Method: A quasi-experimental study was performed, through an extension course with 40 hours of lectures approaching issues related to PC and clinical pharmacy (CP). Participants answered a survey which was handed out before and after the EI. The statistic tests of Sinais and Mann-Whitney were applied to evaluate the EI signifi cance. Results: Participants (n= 49) were mostly (n= 34) students and performing activities related to PC and CP (n= 20). Statistics differences, before and after the EI, were found in the scores of knowledge, skill and attitude (p <0.001). The evaluated item which showed the most improvement was the last one. Most (n= 30) had exceeded or met their expectations (n= 19). Conclusions: The analysis of the data led us to conclude that an EI of 40 h/week about knowledge, skill and attitude in PC using traditional methods, improves knowledge and problem-solving skills of participants. ©2012 Ediciones Mayo, S.A. All rights reserved.

The slow comeback of industrial policies in Latin America and the Caribbean

Includes bibliography

CEPAL Review no. 115

Stylized features of the investment-growth connection in Latin America, 1980-2012 / Sandra Manuelito and Luis Felipe Jiménez.--International technological dynamics in production sectors: An empirical analysis / Fernando Isabella Revetria.-- Does public financial support stimulate innovation and productivity? An impact evaluation / Diego Aboal and Paula Garda.-- Digital inclusion in education in Tarija, Plurinational State of Bolivia / Sulma Farfán Sossa, Antonio Medina Rivilla and María Luz Cacheiro González.-- Macroeconomic trade-offs and external vulnerabilities of human development in Nicaragua / Marco V. Sánchez Cantillo.-- Classroom discipline, classroom environment and student performance in Chile / Carolina Gazmuri, Jorge Manzi and Ricardo D. Paredes.-- Pricing and spread components at the Lima Stock Exchange / Luis Chávez-Bedoya, Carlos Loaiza Álamo and Giannio Téllez De Vettori.-- Exports from the Brazilian automotive sector to the Southern Common Market: Trade diversion or cost reduction? / André Filipe Zago de Azevedo and Angélica Massuquetti.--Determinants of unfair inequality in Brazil, 1995 and 2009 / Ana Claudia Annegues, Erik Alencar de Figueiredo and Wallace Patrick Santos de Farias Souza.-- A comparative analysis of productivity in Brazilian and Mexican manufacturing industries / Armênio de Souza Rangel and Fernando Garcia de Freitas.

Poverty and Mental Health. Tangible and Intangible Aspects of Microcredit

Microcredit, a small lending system, invests on an individual's creativity by stimulating the development of their own potential. This process leads to the attainment of various objectives which in turn allow individuals to develop their skill awareness. Consequently, this process also increases an individual’s self-esteem and self-confidence. These factors play an important role in the aetiology of a number of mental disorders. Namely, those characterized by a series of psychological conditions which impede the full development of a person’s personal, relational and social sphere. Furthermore, since Microcredit is thought to produce tangible goods, such as income, and intangible goods, such as self-esteem and mutual trust, it could also represent an innovative socio-economic tool. We therefore also hypothesize that, Microcredit would be valuable in maximizing abilities/skills in those subjects who are financially excluded and rarely perceived as a ‘resource’ for the Community The longitudinal study set the impact of the Grameen Bank microcredit program on new borrowers women from Noakhali District at the south Bangladesh. The impact evaluation assessment has been structured to detect individual, family and social changes. Manova Analysis allowed distinguishing from women with positive or negative outcomes related to the loan performance. Data revealed consistent differences in terms of economical outcomes and psychological well being amongst the groups of subject analyzed. The data gathered in relation to the changes arisen in the individuals should be looked into through future, continuous and systematic, monitoring.

Valutazione della sostenibilità ambientale tramite metodologia LCA di sistemi per lo sfruttamento di fonti alternative di energia e materiali

La dissertazione ha riguardato l’analisi di sostenibilità di un sistema agronomico per la produzione di olio vegetale a fini energetici in terreni resi marginali dall’infestazione di nematodi. Il processo indagato ha previsto il sovescio di una coltura con proprietà biofumiganti (brassicacea) coltivata in precessione alla specie oleosa (soia e tabacco) al fine di contrastare il proliferare dell’infestazione nel terreno. Tale sistema agronomico è stato confrontato attraverso una analisi di ciclo di vita (LCA) ad uno scenario di coltivazione della stessa specie oleosa senza precessione di brassica ma con l’utilizzo di 1-3-dicloropropene come sistema di lotta ai nematodi. Allo scopo di completare l’analisi LCA con una valutazione dell’impatto sull’uso del suolo (Land use Impact) generato dai due scenari a confronto, sono stati costruiti due modelli nel software per il calcolo del Soil Conditioning Index (SCI), un indicatore quali-quantitativo della qualità del terreno definito dal Dipartimento per l’Agricoltura degli Stati Uniti d’America (USDA).

Creation of Computer Simulation Model for Ecological Consequences Prognosis of Toxic Chemicals Discharge from Sunken on Baltic Sea Bottom Weapons"

This study summarises all the accessible data on old German chemical weapons dumped in the Baltic Sea. Mr. Goncharov formulated a concept of ecological impact evaluation of chemical warfare agents (CWA) on the marine environment and structured a simulation model adapted to the specific character of the hydrological condition and hydrobiological subjects of the Bornholm Deep. The mathematical model he has created describes the spreading of contaminants by currents and turbulence in the near bottom boundary layer. Parameters of CWA discharge through corrosion of canisters were given for various kinds of bottom sediments with allowance for current velocity. He created a method for integral estimations and a computer simulation model and completed a forecast for CWA "Mustard", which showed that in normal hydrometeorological conditions there are local toxic plumes drifting along the bottom for a distance of up to several kilometres. With storm winds the toxic plumes from separate canisters interflow and lengthen and can reach fishery areas near Bornholm Island. When salt water from the North Sea flows in, the length of toxic zones can increase up to and over 100 kilometres and toxic water masses can spread into the northern Baltic. On this basis, Mr. Goncharov drew up recommendations to reduce dangers for human ecology and proposed the creation of a special system for the forecasting and remote sensing of the environmental conditions of CWA burial places.

Returns to migration : the role of educational attainment in rural Tanzania

Given the migration premium previously identified in an impact evaluation approach, this paper asks the question of why migration is not more prominent, given such high premium associated with it. Using long-term household panel data drawn from rural Tanzania, Kagera for the period 1991-2004, this study aims to answer this question by exploring the contribution of education in the migration premium. By separating migrants into those that moved out of original villages but remained within Kagera and those who left the region, this study finds that, in consumption, the return on investment in education is higher at both destinations. However, whilst the higher return on education fully explains the gains associated with migration within Kagera, it only partly explains those of external migration. These findings suggest that welfare opportunities are higher at the destination and that an individual's limited investment in education plays a major role in preventing short-distance migration from becoming a significant source of raising welfare, which is not the case for long-distance migration. While education plays a role, it appears that other mechanisms may prohibit rural agents from exploiting the arbitrage opportunity when they migrate to the destination at a great distance from the source.

Avaliação de impacto do Proagro Mais: um estudo de caso

Esta pesquisa avalia o impacto do \"Programa de Garantia da Atividade Agropecuária\" para agricultores familiares, conhecido como Proagro Mais. A relevância do trabalho fundamenta-se no considerável tamanho do Programa dentro do contexto das políticas de gestão de risco agrícola no Brasil. Além disso, é a primeira pesquisa desse tipo na literatura científica do país. A amostra é formada por produtores de milho do Estado do Paraná, tendo como linha base o ano de 2003, uma vez que é o ano anterior ao lançamento do Proagro Mais, e o ano de 2005 como ano de impacto. A base de dados utilizada neste estudo foi fornecida pelo Tribunal de Contas da União (TCU), cujas variáveis relevantes incluem características da cultura e dos agricultores familiares, como área financiada, atividades agrícolas complementares, educação e rendimento esperado. Adicionalmente, a partir de outras fontes públicas, foram adicionadas variáveis meteorológicas e regionais para controlar a localização da fazenda. O objetivo da pesquisa é avaliar o impacto do Proagro Mais sobre o montante de crédito por hectare concedido aos beneficiários do Programa. As metodologias usadas incluem o Propensity Score Matching (PSM), a Diferença das Diferenças (DID) e dois estimadores condicionais do DID com PSM usando dados em painel e repeated cross-section. As estimativas econométricas mostram que o Efeito Médio do Tratamento nos Tratados (EMTT) teve sinal negativo na maioria dos modelos revelando que, após o período de perda de rendimento, o grupo de controle teve um valor médio mais elevado de crédito por hectare do que os beneficiários do Proagro Mais. Os resultados sugerem a existência de mecanismos que poderiam complementar ou substituir o Proagro Mais como instrumento de gestão de risco agrícola, mas também podem sugerir que o Programa avaliado não cubra todos os riscos do setor.

Esquema de anotación para categorización de citas en bibliografía científica

El análisis de citas bibliográficas que usa variaciones de métodos de conteo provoca deformaciones en la evaluación del impacto. Para enriquecer el cálculo de los factores de impacto se necesita entender el tipo de influencia de los aportes de un investigador sobre el autor que los menciona. Para ello, se requiere realizar análisis de contenido del contexto de las citas que permita obtener su función, polaridad e influencia. El presente artículo trata sobre la definición de un esquema de anotación tendiente a la creación de un corpus de acceso público que sea la base de trabajo colaborativo en este campo, con miras al desarrollo de sistemas que permitan llevar adelante tareas de análisis de contenido con el objetivo planteado.